Minnesota Sports Forum

Q12543 wrote:

kekgeek1 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:With every disappointing loss OKC has early the better that OKC Pick we got from Utah is looking. Eventually they are gonna turn it around (like Q said they are defending and they have lots of talent) but they may have lost enough games to get us a few higher spots than expected after all the OKC moves they made after the Rubio deal.

....but we don't want them to do too bad, right? Isn't it protected?

Lottery protected

Well, that kinda sucks then. They might damn well end up in the lottery at this rate. On the other hand, them not being very good is good for our own playoff hopes. In an ideal world they sneak into that 8th spot and we're ahead of them in the standings as opposed to the team they bump out!

Beating them Friday would be huge, but they're kinda due for a win against us.

Down to a 9-team race, right?

LAC is out. And Memphis is hanging on... for now. I'm not convinced JB has the chops to fix that squad, even with a healthy Gasol and Conley.

thedoper wrote:Thought I should mention again.... could be worse, we could be OKC right now. They're going to be pissed as hell after losing to Orlando. I'd be extremely impressed if we can get out of there with another win Friday and clinch our games with them this year.

Great point, Doper. I agree. OKC is a mystery to me this season. Maybe it is the Carmelo factor as Q had suggested.

lipoli390 wrote:

thedoper wrote:Thought I should mention again.... could be worse, we could be OKC right now. They're going to be pissed as hell after losing to Orlando. I'd be extremely impressed if we can get out of there with another win Friday and clinch our games with them this year.

Great point, Doper. I agree. OKC is a mystery to me this season. Maybe it is the Carmelo factor as Q had suggested.

No, that's LST. I'm not a huge 'Melo fan, but I thought he would be a net positive for OKC since I felt Westbrook needed another guy that they could throw the ball to when they really needed a bucket.

I did a little more digging......They are definitely better than their record. They are 0-5 in games decided by 4 points or less, including the two earlier losses to the Wolves. Their "expected W-L" based on advanced stats is 12-8! All their starters have positive net ratings.

This takes me back to the Rubio-Love-Pek-Martin days where we lost all those close games early on in what was otherwise a really competitive team (which by the way, started winning their fair share of close games later that season).

My take is they are on the wrong side of random chance and really aren't as bad as their record reflects. Regression to the mean will occur and they will be in the playoff hunt soon enough, barring major injury issues.

Q12543 wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

thedoper wrote:Thought I should mention again.... could be worse, we could be OKC right now. They're going to be pissed as hell after losing to Orlando. I'd be extremely impressed if we can get out of there with another win Friday and clinch our games with them this year.

Great point, Doper. I agree. OKC is a mystery to me this season. Maybe it is the Carmelo factor as Q had suggested.

No, that's LST. I'm not a huge 'Melo fan, but I thought he would be a net positive for OKC since I felt Westbrook needed another guy that they could throw the ball to when they really needed a bucket.

I did a little more digging......They are definitely better than their record. They are 0-5 in games decided by 4 points or less, including the two earlier losses to the Wolves. Their "expected W-L" based on advanced stats is 12-8! All their starters have positive net ratings.

This takes me back to the Rubio-Love-Pek-Martin days where we lost all those close games early on in what was otherwise a really competitive team (which by the way, started winning their fair share of close games later that season).

My take is they are on the wrong side of random chance and really aren't as bad as their record reflects. Regression to the mean will occur and they will be in the playoff hunt soon enough, barring major injury issues.

That Wolves team was still 40 - 42 despite having a top 10 offense AND top 10 defense most of the season. That might be unprecedented...

And the close losses never did even out as much as you might think. Remember, that team ended the season with an "expected W-L" of 48 - 34.

That team woefully underachieved. They were the classic definition of front-runners... routing teams by 30+ points MANY times but losing more than their fair share of close games late.

AbeVigodaLive wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

thedoper wrote:Thought I should mention again.... could be worse, we could be OKC right now. They're going to be pissed as hell after losing to Orlando. I'd be extremely impressed if we can get out of there with another win Friday and clinch our games with them this year.

Great point, Doper. I agree. OKC is a mystery to me this season. Maybe it is the Carmelo factor as Q had suggested.

No, that's LST. I'm not a huge 'Melo fan, but I thought he would be a net positive for OKC since I felt Westbrook needed another guy that they could throw the ball to when they really needed a bucket.

I did a little more digging......They are definitely better than their record. They are 0-5 in games decided by 4 points or less, including the two earlier losses to the Wolves. Their "expected W-L" based on advanced stats is 12-8! All their starters have positive net ratings.

This takes me back to the Rubio-Love-Pek-Martin days where we lost all those close games early on in what was otherwise a really competitive team (which by the way, started winning their fair share of close games later that season).

My take is they are on the wrong side of random chance and really aren't as bad as their record reflects. Regression to the mean will occur and they will be in the playoff hunt soon enough, barring major injury issues.

That Wolves team was still 40 - 42 despite having a top 10 offense AND top 10 defense most of the season. That might be unprecedented...

And the close losses never did even out as much as you might think. Remember, that team ended the season with an "expected W-L" of 48 - 34.

That team woefully underachieved. They were the classic definition of front-runners... routing teams by 30+ points MANY times but losing more than their fair share of close games late.

OKC is 8-12 vs. an expected record of 12-8. That is a pretty damn big delta in percentage terms.....although I don't expect it to stick.

I attribute the majority, but not all, of our close losses that year to being on the wrong side of random chance. Same goes for OKC this year so far.

Q12543 wrote:

AbeVigodaLive wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

thedoper wrote:Thought I should mention again.... could be worse, we could be OKC right now. They're going to be pissed as hell after losing to Orlando. I'd be extremely impressed if we can get out of there with another win Friday and clinch our games with them this year.

Great point, Doper. I agree. OKC is a mystery to me this season. Maybe it is the Carmelo factor as Q had suggested.

No, that's LST. I'm not a huge 'Melo fan, but I thought he would be a net positive for OKC since I felt Westbrook needed another guy that they could throw the ball to when they really needed a bucket.

I did a little more digging......They are definitely better than their record. They are 0-5 in games decided by 4 points or less, including the two earlier losses to the Wolves. Their "expected W-L" based on advanced stats is 12-8! All their starters have positive net ratings.

This takes me back to the Rubio-Love-Pek-Martin days where we lost all those close games early on in what was otherwise a really competitive team (which by the way, started winning their fair share of close games later that season).

My take is they are on the wrong side of random chance and really aren't as bad as their record reflects. Regression to the mean will occur and they will be in the playoff hunt soon enough, barring major injury issues.

That Wolves team was still 40 - 42 despite having a top 10 offense AND top 10 defense most of the season. That might be unprecedented...

And the close losses never did even out as much as you might think. Remember, that team ended the season with an "expected W-L" of 48 - 34.

That team woefully underachieved. They were the classic definition of front-runners... routing teams by 30+ points MANY times but losing more than their fair share of close games late.

OKC is 8-12 vs. an expected record of 12-8. That is a pretty damn big delta in percentage terms.....although I don't expect it to stick.

I attribute the majority, but not all, of our close losses that year to being on the wrong side of random chance. Same goes for OKC this year so far.

We've always disagreed on that one.

I remember the starting PG shooting something like 29% and not scoring a field goal in the 4th quarter for about a month... and his backup being even worse. And the other key players (Love, Pekovic, et al) also saw significant drops in production although not as bad.

You call it chance. I call it bad play. Remember, that team was good at two things... not fouling. And getting fouled. As everybody knows... in tight games in the 4th quarter... a lot of stuff is not called. And that often negated two of the Wolves largest statistical advantages that season.

OKCs problem is they have no bench and Melo isn't a PF even in today's NBA. Offensively he can cope but defensively he cannot guard 4s. Steven Adams is continually having to rotate on to Melos man which nullifies his effectiveness as a low post defender. They play more ISO ball than we do and have just as bad floor spacing. I'm not sure there's an easy fix either other than trading George or Melo.

AbeVigodaLive wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

kekgeek1 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:With every disappointing loss OKC has early the better that OKC Pick we got from Utah is looking. Eventually they are gonna turn it around (like Q said they are defending and they have lots of talent) but they may have lost enough games to get us a few higher spots than expected after all the OKC moves they made after the Rubio deal.

....but we don't want them to do too bad, right? Isn't it protected?

Lottery protected

Well, that kinda sucks then. They might damn well end up in the lottery at this rate. On the other hand, them not being very good is good for our own playoff hopes. In an ideal world they sneak into that 8th spot and we're ahead of them in the standings as opposed to the team they bump out!

Beating them Friday would be huge, but they're kinda due for a win against us.

Down to a 9-team race, right?

LAC is out. And Memphis is hanging on... for now. I'm not convinced JB has the chops to fix that squad, even with a healthy Gasol and Conley.

Yeah, it's obviously early, but it does look like 9 teams gunning for 8 spots. I'm guessing either the Pelicans or OkC miss the playoffs...for the sake of preserving our pick, I hope it's the Pelicans.

Wouldn't Wendell Carter look good backing up (and eventually replacing) Taj Gibson? (Oh, oh...did I just tee up the draft thread?)

Q12543 wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

thedoper wrote:Thought I should mention again.... could be worse, we could be OKC right now. They're going to be pissed as hell after losing to Orlando. I'd be extremely impressed if we can get out of there with another win Friday and clinch our games with them this year.

Great point, Doper. I agree. OKC is a mystery to me this season. Maybe it is the Carmelo factor as Q had suggested.

No, that's LST. I'm not a huge 'Melo fan, but I thought he would be a net positive for OKC since I felt Westbrook needed another guy that they could throw the ball to when they really needed a bucket.

I did a little more digging......They are definitely better than their record. They are 0-5 in games decided by 4 points or less, including the two earlier losses to the Wolves. Their "expected W-L" based on advanced stats is 12-8! All their starters have positive net ratings.

This takes me back to the Rubio-Love-Pek-Martin days where we lost all those close games early on in what was otherwise a really competitive team (which by the way, started winning their fair share of close games later that season).

My take is they are on the wrong side of random chance and really aren't as bad as their record reflects. Regression to the mean will occur and they will be in the playoff hunt soon enough, barring major injury issues.

My apologies, Q, for confusing with you with LST. No offense intended. :). I hadn't drilled down nearly as far as you, but I have noticed their point differential is better than their W/L record. That stat alone suggests that they're a better team than their record, which further suggests they might simply be on the wrong side of random chance to date. Time will tell. I'm just glad they've struggled so far in the W/L column because that gives the Wolves some breathing space. I still expect OKC to end up in the playoffs. Talent eventually wins out over time during a season and I still think OKC is tremendously talented. The Cavs really struggled initially and then took off with 10 wins in a row. OKC is talented enough to do the same.

I'm watching their Bucks Blazers game. A Bucks win would be great for the Wolves. Giannis is such an imposing presence on the court. Both teams play fast and hard.