Minnesota Sports Forum

monsterpile wrote:Let's say the best deal you can get is the Waiters Richardson 1st round pick deal. What could Miami do to sweeten that deal? 2nd round picks? Well...we have theirs next year. From now will a top 55 protected pick in 2024 they only own 1 of their 2nd round picks. A future 1st round is a ways off so I can understand Miami being hesitant to deal a pick that's years down the road. It feels like the Wolves absolutely need more than that deal unless you have believe Richardson is gonna be an Otto porter level player and maybe you can actually squeeze some worthwhile play out of Waiters during the contract. Lots of ifs there for paying those 2 guys a total of around 23 million each of the next 2 years after this one.

Thibs isn't dealing Taj in this deal and i don't think it does much for Miami anyway. They already have a bunch of bigs. I don't think the value of trading Taj helps us get something worthwhile in this deal kinda like us getting Olynyk back helps us that much more than Waiters since the Heat likely value Olynyk and he also makes more money that Waiters. Again why do we have to be a dumping ground for Riley's mistake? We need to be compensated for that when we have by far the best asset.

Monster - You might be right that Thibs wouldn't deal Taj. If so, that's just another reason to fire Thibodeau. I love Taj, but he's simply not a key part of this team over the long haul and if trading him can help get a reasonable Butler deal, then he absolutely should be included in the deal. Would he do much for Miami? Yes, if you assume as I do that we get Bam in the deal. Look at how many minutes Bam got last season -- about 22. Maybe James Johnson gets those minutes, but Taj is better and more likely to stay healthy. He would clearly have significant value to a Miami playoff push playing 22 minutes a game for the Heat. And he is also Pat's kind of player. But even if Riley doesn't think Taj would help a lot, that's not the point. The point of including Taj is as a salary-match alternative to Gorgui. If reports are true that Gorgui's value is a negative 2 first round picks, or convervatively 1 such pick, then including Gorgui in the deal would likely be a nonstarter for Miami, which is essentially what's been reported. Taj provides much better production than Gorgui and does so without the ugly long-term contract. In other words, Gorgui has substantial negative trade value while Taj at worst has absolutely no negative value and likely has at least some positive value.

For salary-match purposes we're going to have to take bad salary back in any deal for Richardson. That's because all of the players with salaries to match are on what most would consider relatively bad contracts. Olynyk is the only player who MIGHT be worth his contract, but Riley's not going to give him up. I don't particularly like T. Johnson's contract, but it's only two years with the possibility he could opt out after 1 year and he's a player who can hit threes, handle the ball and actually contribute something positive to the Wolves while here. That's why I think the deal to do at this point would be Butler and Taj for Richardson, Bam, Tyler Johnson and Miami's pick. I'd actually be willing to forgoe the pick in that deal, but I'd insist on it and think we could get it. It might be useful in moving Gorgui's contract next summer.

Camden0916 wrote:If you'd be okay with essentially trading Jimmy Butler for Josh Richardson and a low first-round pick, then I REALLY question your ability to evaluate players and put a value on them in the NBA.

That would be highway robbery for Pat Riley. Stop with this loser mentality bullshit. Butler is an All-NBA player in his prime, for crying out loud. What the fuck do people not understand about that?

I'd argue you don't know how the NBA works. So you don't see the conundrum for the wolves, play this year with Jimmy, maybe win 40 games and fight for the 8th seed and risk losing him for nothing, or having to sign him next year to a max deal, even further putting us in cap hell, for a 40-45 win team, with no real resources to get better. On table of that you are paying for Butlers worst years. Because he was a top 15 player in the league last year doesn't mean he will be next year.

Duke13 wrote:

Camden0916 wrote:If you'd be okay with essentially trading Jimmy Butler for Josh Richardson and a low first-round pick, then I REALLY question your ability to evaluate players and put a value on them in the NBA.

That would be highway robbery for Pat Riley. Stop with this loser mentality bullshit. Butler is an All-NBA player in his prime, for crying out loud. What the fuck do people not understand about that?

I'd argue you don't know how the NBA works. So you don't see the conundrum for the wolves, play this year with Jimmy, maybe win 40 games and fight for the 8th seed and risk losing him for nothing, or having to sign him next year to a max deal, even further putting us in cap hell, for a 40-45 win team, with no real resources to get better. On table of that you are paying for Butlers worst years. Because he was a top 15 player in the league last year doesn't mean he will be next year.

If Jimmy plays 65-70 games we are a 50 win team. We won 47 with him missing his most amount of games in a while only playing 59 games. I don't think you understand how good we were with Jimmy in the lineup last year. 62% winning percentage good.

lipoli390 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:Let's say the best deal you can get is the Waiters Richardson 1st round pick deal. What could Miami do to sweeten that deal? 2nd round picks? Well...we have theirs next year. From now will a top 55 protected pick in 2024 they only own 1 of their 2nd round picks. A future 1st round is a ways off so I can understand Miami being hesitant to deal a pick that's years down the road. It feels like the Wolves absolutely need more than that deal unless you have believe Richardson is gonna be an Otto porter level player and maybe you can actually squeeze some worthwhile play out of Waiters during the contract. Lots of ifs there for paying those 2 guys a total of around 23 million each of the next 2 years after this one.

Thibs isn't dealing Taj in this deal and i don't think it does much for Miami anyway. They already have a bunch of bigs. I don't think the value of trading Taj helps us get something worthwhile in this deal kinda like us getting Olynyk back helps us that much more than Waiters since the Heat likely value Olynyk and he also makes more money that Waiters. Again why do we have to be a dumping ground for Riley's mistake? We need to be compensated for that when we have by far the best asset.

Monster - You might be right that Thibs wouldn't deal Taj. If so, that's just another reason to fire Thibodeau. I love Taj, but he's simply not a key part of this team over the long haul and if trading him can help get a reasonable Butler deal, then he absolutely should be included in the deal. Would he do much for Miami? Yes, if you assume as I do that we get Bam in the deal. Look at how many minutes Bam got last season -- about 22. Maybe James Johnson gets those minutes, but Taj is better and more likely to stay healthy. He would clearly have significant value to a Miami playoff push playing 22 minutes a game for the Heat. And he is also Pat's kind of player. But even if Riley doesn't think Taj would help a lot, that's not the point. The point of including Taj is as a salary-match alternative to Gorgui. If reports are true that Gorgui's value is a negative 2 first round picks, or convervatively 1 such pick, then including Gorgui in the deal would likely be a nonstarter for Miami, which is essentially what's been reported. Taj provides much better production than Gorgui and does so without the ugly long-term contract. In other words, Gorgui has substantial negative trade value while Taj at worst has absolutely no negative value and likely has at least some positive value.

For salary-match purposes we're going to have to take bad salary back in any deal for Richardson. That's because all of the players with salaries to match are on what most would consider relatively bad contracts. Olynyk is the only player who MIGHT be worth his contract, but Riley's not going to give him up. I don't particularly like T. Johnson's contract, but it's only two years with the possibility he could opt out after 1 year and he's a player who can hit threes, handle the ball and actually contribute something positive to the Wolves while here. That's why I think the deal to do at this point would be Butler and Taj for Richardson, Bam, Tyler Johnson and Miami's pick. I'd actually be willing to forgoe the pick in that deal, but I'd insist on it and think we could get it. It might be useful in moving Gorgui's contract next summer.

Lip we agree that trading Gibson for value makes sense. I'm not looking to deal him as a throw in you aren't either. Where we differ is how much value he would bring back in this Miami deal. Neither of us really know but thinking about Moving Taj is interesting.

As for your proposed deal it sounds interesting then you start thinking about the salaries of guys the Heat can send back in all of these deals and it gets less exciting. We both like Tyler johnson but with his trade kicker that pushed his money up to nearly 22 million for the next season. That means this deal with Bam adds over 36 million in salary for 2019...without crunching some numbers (ok my quick spreadsheet says 143 million) and if Teague opts in and we can't find some that wants him (I think he could be moved but it's not a certainty)...that's gotta be some serious lux tax and no way Glen is gonna let you add anyone other than vet min guys and quite frankly so wouldn't blame him. That addition of salary should be a significant consideration when looking at this deal.

khans2k5 wrote:

Duke13 wrote:

Camden0916 wrote:If you'd be okay with essentially trading Jimmy Butler for Josh Richardson and a low first-round pick, then I REALLY question your ability to evaluate players and put a value on them in the NBA.

That would be highway robbery for Pat Riley. Stop with this loser mentality bullshit. Butler is an All-NBA player in his prime, for crying out loud. What the fuck do people not understand about that?

I'd argue you don't know how the NBA works. So you don't see the conundrum for the wolves, play this year with Jimmy, maybe win 40 games and fight for the 8th seed and risk losing him for nothing, or having to sign him next year to a max deal, even further putting us in cap hell, for a 40-45 win team, with no real resources to get better. On table of that you are paying for Butlers worst years. Because he was a top 15 player in the league last year doesn't mean he will be next year.

If Jimmy plays 65-70 games we are a 50 win team. We won 47 with him missing his most amount of games in a while only playing 59 games. I don't think you understand how good we were with Jimmy in the lineup last year. 62% winning percentage good.

Why on earth would Jimmy adamently and publicly demand a trade from a team that would likely win 50 games with him here? And how will team's chemistry and cohesion fair with his teammates knowing he doesn't want to stay here and play with them? Jimmy must know we're good enough to win 50 games with him, right? So why would Jimmy suddenly decide next summer to stay beyond this season after winning 50 games if he already knows now that we're good enough to win 50 games?

lipoli390 wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:

Duke13 wrote:

Camden0916 wrote:If you'd be okay with essentially trading Jimmy Butler for Josh Richardson and a low first-round pick, then I REALLY question your ability to evaluate players and put a value on them in the NBA.

That would be highway robbery for Pat Riley. Stop with this loser mentality bullshit. Butler is an All-NBA player in his prime, for crying out loud. What the fuck do people not understand about that?

I'd argue you don't know how the NBA works. So you don't see the conundrum for the wolves, play this year with Jimmy, maybe win 40 games and fight for the 8th seed and risk losing him for nothing, or having to sign him next year to a max deal, even further putting us in cap hell, for a 40-45 win team, with no real resources to get better. On table of that you are paying for Butlers worst years. Because he was a top 15 player in the league last year doesn't mean he will be next year.

If Jimmy plays 65-70 games we are a 50 win team. We won 47 with him missing his most amount of games in a while only playing 59 games. I don't think you understand how good we were with Jimmy in the lineup last year. 62% winning percentage good.

Why on earth would Jimmy adamently and publicly demand a trade from a team that would likely win 50 games with him here? And how will team's chemistry and cohesion fair with his teammates knowing he doesn't want to stay here and play with them? Jimmy must know we're good enough to win 50 games with him, right? So why would Jimmy suddenly decide next summer to stay beyond this season after winning 50 games if he already knows now that we're good enough to win 50 games?

Um...cause he is Jimmy Butler? Lol

monsterpile wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:

Duke13 wrote:

Camden0916 wrote:If you'd be okay with essentially trading Jimmy Butler for Josh Richardson and a low first-round pick, then I REALLY question your ability to evaluate players and put a value on them in the NBA.

That would be highway robbery for Pat Riley. Stop with this loser mentality bullshit. Butler is an All-NBA player in his prime, for crying out loud. What the fuck do people not understand about that?

I'd argue you don't know how the NBA works. So you don't see the conundrum for the wolves, play this year with Jimmy, maybe win 40 games and fight for the 8th seed and risk losing him for nothing, or having to sign him next year to a max deal, even further putting us in cap hell, for a 40-45 win team, with no real resources to get better. On table of that you are paying for Butlers worst years. Because he was a top 15 player in the league last year doesn't mean he will be next year.

If Jimmy plays 65-70 games we are a 50 win team. We won 47 with him missing his most amount of games in a while only playing 59 games. I don't think you understand how good we were with Jimmy in the lineup last year. 62% winning percentage good.

Why on earth would Jimmy adamently and publicly demand a trade from a team that would likely win 50 games with him here? And how will team's chemistry and cohesion fair with his teammates knowing he doesn't want to stay here and play with them? Jimmy must know we're good enough to win 50 games with him, right? So why would Jimmy suddenly decide next summer to stay beyond this season after winning 50 games if he already knows now that we're good enough to win 50 games?

Um...cause he is Jimmy Butler? Lol

Lol, lol, lol. That's good stuff Monster!!

monsterpile wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:Let's say the best deal you can get is the Waiters Richardson 1st round pick deal. What could Miami do to sweeten that deal? 2nd round picks? Well...we have theirs next year. From now will a top 55 protected pick in 2024 they only own 1 of their 2nd round picks. A future 1st round is a ways off so I can understand Miami being hesitant to deal a pick that's years down the road. It feels like the Wolves absolutely need more than that deal unless you have believe Richardson is gonna be an Otto porter level player and maybe you can actually squeeze some worthwhile play out of Waiters during the contract. Lots of ifs there for paying those 2 guys a total of around 23 million each of the next 2 years after this one.

Thibs isn't dealing Taj in this deal and i don't think it does much for Miami anyway. They already have a bunch of bigs. I don't think the value of trading Taj helps us get something worthwhile in this deal kinda like us getting Olynyk back helps us that much more than Waiters since the Heat likely value Olynyk and he also makes more money that Waiters. Again why do we have to be a dumping ground for Riley's mistake? We need to be compensated for that when we have by far the best asset.

Monster - You might be right that Thibs wouldn't deal Taj. If so, that's just another reason to fire Thibodeau. I love Taj, but he's simply not a key part of this team over the long haul and if trading him can help get a reasonable Butler deal, then he absolutely should be included in the deal. Would he do much for Miami? Yes, if you assume as I do that we get Bam in the deal. Look at how many minutes Bam got last season -- about 22. Maybe James Johnson gets those minutes, but Taj is better and more likely to stay healthy. He would clearly have significant value to a Miami playoff push playing 22 minutes a game for the Heat. And he is also Pat's kind of player. But even if Riley doesn't think Taj would help a lot, that's not the point. The point of including Taj is as a salary-match alternative to Gorgui. If reports are true that Gorgui's value is a negative 2 first round picks, or convervatively 1 such pick, then including Gorgui in the deal would likely be a nonstarter for Miami, which is essentially what's been reported. Taj provides much better production than Gorgui and does so without the ugly long-term contract. In other words, Gorgui has substantial negative trade value while Taj at worst has absolutely no negative value and likely has at least some positive value.

For salary-match purposes we're going to have to take bad salary back in any deal for Richardson. That's because all of the players with salaries to match are on what most would consider relatively bad contracts. Olynyk is the only player who MIGHT be worth his contract, but Riley's not going to give him up. I don't particularly like T. Johnson's contract, but it's only two years with the possibility he could opt out after 1 year and he's a player who can hit threes, handle the ball and actually contribute something positive to the Wolves while here. That's why I think the deal to do at this point would be Butler and Taj for Richardson, Bam, Tyler Johnson and Miami's pick. I'd actually be willing to forgoe the pick in that deal, but I'd insist on it and think we could get it. It might be useful in moving Gorgui's contract next summer.

Lip we agree that trading Gibson for value makes sense. I'm not looking to deal him as a throw in you aren't either. Where we differ is how much value he would bring back in this Miami deal. Neither of us really know but thinking about Moving Taj is interesting.

As for your proposed deal it sounds interesting then you start thinking about the salaries of guys the Heat can send back in all of these deals and it gets less exciting. We both like Tyler johnson but with his trade kicker that pushed his money up to nearly 22 million for the next season. That means this deal with Bam adds over 36 million in salary for 2019...without crunching some numbers (ok my quick spreadsheet says 143 million) and if Teague opts in and we can't find some that wants him (I think he could be moved but it's not a certainty)...that's gotta be some serious lux tax and no way Glen is gonna let you add anyone other than vet min guys and quite frankly so wouldn't blame him. That addition of salary should be a significant consideration when looking at this deal.

I absolutely see your point on the salary impact. I just calculated the payroll at about $135 million assuming Teague and Tyler opt in and also assuming we keep Patton and Tyus. We'd have 11 roster players with a total payroll of around $135 million. The luxury tax threshold is currently $123.7 million. It will probably be around $125-128 million next season. So it would be risky, but I think it could be managed. After filling out the remaining 3 roster spots, we'd have to cut about $10-12 million to get below the luxury tax threshold. There's a decent chance Teague would opt out, which would take care of the situation. If not, assuming we receive Miami's pick, I could see us trading that pick plus Patton in a package to off load Gorgui's contract. I'm not saying it would be easy. But it wouldn't be impossible. Unfortunately, I can't see a deal that works with Miami that wouldn't also require the Wolves to take a bad contract back - simply because of salary-match rules. So honestly, taking Waiters might be the least objectionable for the Wolves from a salary perspective. I would still insist on getting Bam as part of the package.

monsterpile wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:Let's say the best deal you can get is the Waiters Richardson 1st round pick deal. What could Miami do to sweeten that deal? 2nd round picks? Well...we have theirs next year. From now will a top 55 protected pick in 2024 they only own 1 of their 2nd round picks. A future 1st round is a ways off so I can understand Miami being hesitant to deal a pick that's years down the road. It feels like the Wolves absolutely need more than that deal unless you have believe Richardson is gonna be an Otto porter level player and maybe you can actually squeeze some worthwhile play out of Waiters during the contract. Lots of ifs there for paying those 2 guys a total of around 23 million each of the next 2 years after this one.

Thibs isn't dealing Taj in this deal and i don't think it does much for Miami anyway. They already have a bunch of bigs. I don't think the value of trading Taj helps us get something worthwhile in this deal kinda like us getting Olynyk back helps us that much more than Waiters since the Heat likely value Olynyk and he also makes more money that Waiters. Again why do we have to be a dumping ground for Riley's mistake? We need to be compensated for that when we have by far the best asset.

Monster - You might be right that Thibs wouldn't deal Taj. If so, that's just another reason to fire Thibodeau. I love Taj, but he's simply not a key part of this team over the long haul and if trading him can help get a reasonable Butler deal, then he absolutely should be included in the deal. Would he do much for Miami? Yes, if you assume as I do that we get Bam in the deal. Look at how many minutes Bam got last season -- about 22. Maybe James Johnson gets those minutes, but Taj is better and more likely to stay healthy. He would clearly have significant value to a Miami playoff push playing 22 minutes a game for the Heat. And he is also Pat's kind of player. But even if Riley doesn't think Taj would help a lot, that's not the point. The point of including Taj is as a salary-match alternative to Gorgui. If reports are true that Gorgui's value is a negative 2 first round picks, or convervatively 1 such pick, then including Gorgui in the deal would likely be a nonstarter for Miami, which is essentially what's been reported. Taj provides much better production than Gorgui and does so without the ugly long-term contract. In other words, Gorgui has substantial negative trade value while Taj at worst has absolutely no negative value and likely has at least some positive value.

For salary-match purposes we're going to have to take bad salary back in any deal for Richardson. That's because all of the players with salaries to match are on what most would consider relatively bad contracts. Olynyk is the only player who MIGHT be worth his contract, but Riley's not going to give him up. I don't particularly like T. Johnson's contract, but it's only two years with the possibility he could opt out after 1 year and he's a player who can hit threes, handle the ball and actually contribute something positive to the Wolves while here. That's why I think the deal to do at this point would be Butler and Taj for Richardson, Bam, Tyler Johnson and Miami's pick. I'd actually be willing to forgoe the pick in that deal, but I'd insist on it and think we could get it. It might be useful in moving Gorgui's contract next summer.

Lip we agree that trading Gibson for value makes sense. I'm not looking to deal him as a throw in you aren't either. Where we differ is how much value he would bring back in this Miami deal. Neither of us really know but thinking about Moving Taj is interesting.

As for your proposed deal it sounds interesting then you start thinking about the salaries of guys the Heat can send back in all of these deals and it gets less exciting. We both like Tyler johnson but with his trade kicker that pushed his money up to nearly 22 million for the next season. That means this deal with Bam adds over 36 million in salary for 2019...without crunching some numbers (ok my quick spreadsheet says 143 million) and if Teague opts in and we can't find some that wants him (I think he could be moved but it's not a certainty)...that's gotta be some serious lux tax and no way Glen is gonna let you add anyone other than vet min guys and quite frankly so wouldn't blame him. That addition of salary should be a significant consideration when looking at this deal.

Monster, how did you come up with that 143 million? Did you forget to takeoff the salaries would be sending out?

sjm34 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:Let's say the best deal you can get is the Waiters Richardson 1st round pick deal. What could Miami do to sweeten that deal? 2nd round picks? Well...we have theirs next year. From now will a top 55 protected pick in 2024 they only own 1 of their 2nd round picks. A future 1st round is a ways off so I can understand Miami being hesitant to deal a pick that's years down the road. It feels like the Wolves absolutely need more than that deal unless you have believe Richardson is gonna be an Otto porter level player and maybe you can actually squeeze some worthwhile play out of Waiters during the contract. Lots of ifs there for paying those 2 guys a total of around 23 million each of the next 2 years after this one.

Thibs isn't dealing Taj in this deal and i don't think it does much for Miami anyway. They already have a bunch of bigs. I don't think the value of trading Taj helps us get something worthwhile in this deal kinda like us getting Olynyk back helps us that much more than Waiters since the Heat likely value Olynyk and he also makes more money that Waiters. Again why do we have to be a dumping ground for Riley's mistake? We need to be compensated for that when we have by far the best asset.

Monster - You might be right that Thibs wouldn't deal Taj. If so, that's just another reason to fire Thibodeau. I love Taj, but he's simply not a key part of this team over the long haul and if trading him can help get a reasonable Butler deal, then he absolutely should be included in the deal. Would he do much for Miami? Yes, if you assume as I do that we get Bam in the deal. Look at how many minutes Bam got last season -- about 22. Maybe James Johnson gets those minutes, but Taj is better and more likely to stay healthy. He would clearly have significant value to a Miami playoff push playing 22 minutes a game for the Heat. And he is also Pat's kind of player. But even if Riley doesn't think Taj would help a lot, that's not the point. The point of including Taj is as a salary-match alternative to Gorgui. If reports are true that Gorgui's value is a negative 2 first round picks, or convervatively 1 such pick, then including Gorgui in the deal would likely be a nonstarter for Miami, which is essentially what's been reported. Taj provides much better production than Gorgui and does so without the ugly long-term contract. In other words, Gorgui has substantial negative trade value while Taj at worst has absolutely no negative value and likely has at least some positive value.

For salary-match purposes we're going to have to take bad salary back in any deal for Richardson. That's because all of the players with salaries to match are on what most would consider relatively bad contracts. Olynyk is the only player who MIGHT be worth his contract, but Riley's not going to give him up. I don't particularly like T. Johnson's contract, but it's only two years with the possibility he could opt out after 1 year and he's a player who can hit threes, handle the ball and actually contribute something positive to the Wolves while here. That's why I think the deal to do at this point would be Butler and Taj for Richardson, Bam, Tyler Johnson and Miami's pick. I'd actually be willing to forgoe the pick in that deal, but I'd insist on it and think we could get it. It might be useful in moving Gorgui's contract next summer.

Lip we agree that trading Gibson for value makes sense. I'm not looking to deal him as a throw in you aren't either. Where we differ is how much value he would bring back in this Miami deal. Neither of us really know but thinking about Moving Taj is interesting.

As for your proposed deal it sounds interesting then you start thinking about the salaries of guys the Heat can send back in all of these deals and it gets less exciting. We both like Tyler johnson but with his trade kicker that pushed his money up to nearly 22 million for the next season. That means this deal with Bam adds over 36 million in salary for 2019...without crunching some numbers (ok my quick spreadsheet says 143 million) and if Teague opts in and we can't find some that wants him (I think he could be moved but it's not a certainty)...that's gotta be some serious lux tax and no way Glen is gonna let you add anyone other than vet min guys and quite frankly so wouldn't blame him. That addition of salary should be a significant consideration when looking at this deal.

Monster, how did you come up with that 143 million? Did you forget to takeoff the salaries would be sending out?

SJM - Monster can answer for himself, but I can say he's not far off. I calculated about $135 million -- adding the three salaries we'd be getting, including the $22 million Tyler Johnson contract. We'd still have the salaries of Gorgui, Wiggins, Towns and Teague. Then you did in salaries of Patton, Tyus Jones, Okogie and KDB. When it all gets added together it came to $135 million. Now that I think about it, I forgot to include the additional salary from our own 1st rd pk., not to mention any pick we were to get from Miami. So it's pretty bad as Monster was pointing out.