Minnesota Sports Forum

60WinTim wrote:This is the first time I have built a spreadsheet for the KOM! The KOM classifies teams into three tiers and assumes HOME teams will win if they are in a tier equal to or above their opponent. In the spreadsheet I enter a night's wins and losses, and spreadsheet forecasts the remainder of a team's record based on those classifications.

I have not made any adjustments for injuries, yet, and have only put in the obvious top and bottom teams. After the All-Star break I well re-evaluate the tiers. The Suns, Mavs and Clippers will likely be bumped into the top tier. And there might be some teams deserving to be bumped into the bottom tier. If the Wolves were to win a couple road games in their first road trip after the All-Star break, then they would be worthy of the Top Tier.

Code: Select all

Top Teams:		76ers,Bucks,Cavaliers,Celtics,Grizzlies,Nuggets

Bottom Teams:		Hornets,Pacers,Pistons,Rockets,Spurs


Projections:
Seed	Team		Wins	Losses
3.	Mavericks	44	38
4.	Clippers	44	38
5.	Pelicans	42	40
6.	Kings		42	40
7.	Lakers		41	41
8.	Thunder		41	41
9.	Suns		41	41
10.	Blazers		40	42
11.	Warriors	40	42
12.	Wolves		39	43
13.	Jazz		39	43

[Edit: Hmm.. I'll have to work on my copy/paste formatting... ]

Nice work! I'm going to copy your format technique next time I post a spreadsheet. Using the forum "insert table" is a pain in the ass.

So I decided to bump the Suns, Clippers and Mavs into the top tier. The Wolves loss is a klunker, and I will not put them in the top tier. I have not added any other teams to the Bottom (tanking) group just, yet. So the current standing show the Wolves tied with the Warriors, Lakers and Jazz for the 10th seed. I am hopeful the Wolves can produce more "anti-klunkers" than those other three teams! The race is really nuts with the 13th team being just 2 games behind the 6th seed!

60WinTim wrote:So I decided to bump the Suns, Clippers and Mavs into the top tier. The Wolves loss is a klunker, and I will not put them in the top tier. I have not added any other teams to the Bottom (tanking) group just, yet. So the current standing show the Wolves tied with the Warriors, Lakers and Jazz for the 10th seed. I am hopeful the Wolves can produce more "anti-klunkers" than those other three teams! The race is really nuts with the 13th team being just 2 games behind the 6th seed!

Code: Select all

Top Teams:		76ers,Bucks,Cavaliers,Celtics,Clippers,Grizzlies,Mavericks,Nuggets,Suns
Bottom Teams:		Hornets,Pacers,Pistons,Rockets,Spurs

Projections:
Seed	Team	Wins	Losses
3.	Suns	52	30
4.	Mavs	50	32
5.	Clips	50	32
6.	Pels	40	42
7.	Kings	40	42
8.	Thunder	39	43
9.	Blazers	39	43
10.	Wolves	38	44
11.	Lakers	38	44
12.	Warrior	38	44
13.	Jazz	38	44

Tim, not sure the justification for this move. I could see the Suns when Durant comes back, but they are actually weaker right now with Bridges gone. Dallas had a better balanced team before Irving, and not sure I see any improvement from the clippers.

Maybe you are just trying to bring some sunshine to the board! :)

sjm34 wrote:

60WinTim wrote:So I decided to bump the Suns, Clippers and Mavs into the top tier. The Wolves loss is a klunker, and I will not put them in the top tier. I have not added any other teams to the Bottom (tanking) group just, yet. So the current standing show the Wolves tied with the Warriors, Lakers and Jazz for the 10th seed. I am hopeful the Wolves can produce more "anti-klunkers" than those other three teams! The race is really nuts with the 13th team being just 2 games behind the 6th seed!

Code: Select all

Top Teams:		76ers,Bucks,Cavaliers,Celtics,Clippers,Grizzlies,Mavericks,Nuggets,Suns
Bottom Teams:		Hornets,Pacers,Pistons,Rockets,Spurs

Projections:
Seed	Team	Wins	Losses
3.	Suns	52	30
4.	Mavs	50	32
5.	Clips	50	32
6.	Pels	40	42
7.	Kings	40	42
8.	Thunder	39	43
9.	Blazers	39	43
10.	Wolves	38	44
11.	Lakers	38	44
12.	Warrior	38	44
13.	Jazz	38	44

Tim, not sure the justification for this move. I could see the Suns when Durant comes back, but they are actually weaker right now with Bridges gone. Dallas had a better balanced team before Irving, and not sure I see any improvement from the clippers.

Maybe you are just trying to bring some sunshine to the board! :)

What do you mean, they have okogie who was 6-12 from 3 tonight

kekgeek1 wrote:

sjm34 wrote:

60WinTim wrote:So I decided to bump the Suns, Clippers and Mavs into the top tier. The Wolves loss is a klunker, and I will not put them in the top tier. I have not added any other teams to the Bottom (tanking) group just, yet. So the current standing show the Wolves tied with the Warriors, Lakers and Jazz for the 10th seed. I am hopeful the Wolves can produce more "anti-klunkers" than those other three teams! The race is really nuts with the 13th team being just 2 games behind the 6th seed!

Code: Select all

Top Teams:		76ers,Bucks,Cavaliers,Celtics,Clippers,Grizzlies,Mavericks,Nuggets,Suns
Bottom Teams:		Hornets,Pacers,Pistons,Rockets,Spurs

Projections:
Seed	Team	Wins	Losses
3.	Suns	52	30
4.	Mavs	50	32
5.	Clips	50	32
6.	Pels	40	42
7.	Kings	40	42
8.	Thunder	39	43
9.	Blazers	39	43
10.	Wolves	38	44
11.	Lakers	38	44
12.	Warrior	38	44
13.	Jazz	38	44

Tim, not sure the justification for this move. I could see the Suns when Durant comes back, but they are actually weaker right now with Bridges gone. Dallas had a better balanced team before Irving, and not sure I see any improvement from the clippers.

Maybe you are just trying to bring some sunshine to the board! :)

What do you mean, they have okogie who was 6-12 from 3 tonight

Who would of thought he just needed a mask to reach his potential.

60WinTim wrote:So I decided to bump the Suns, Clippers and Mavs into the top tier. The Wolves loss is a klunker, and I will not put them in the top tier. I have not added any other teams to the Bottom (tanking) group just, yet. So the current standing show the Wolves tied with the Warriors, Lakers and Jazz for the 10th seed. I am hopeful the Wolves can produce more "anti-klunkers" than those other three teams! The race is really nuts with the 13th team being just 2 games behind the 6th seed!

Code: Select all

Top Teams:		76ers,Bucks,Cavaliers,Celtics,Clippers,Grizzlies,Mavericks,Nuggets,Suns
Bottom Teams:		Hornets,Pacers,Pistons,Rockets,Spurs

Projections:
Seed	Team	Wins	Losses
3.	Suns	52	30
4.	Mavs	50	32
5.	Clips	50	32
6.	Pels	40	42
7.	Kings	40	42
8.	Thunder	39	43
9.	Blazers	39	43
10.	Wolves	38	44
11.	Lakers	38	44
12.	Warrior	38	44
13.	Jazz	38	44

Tough loss last night, Tim. I also have the Wolves and Golden State tied in my spreadsheet, but ties for 9th, not 10th. I also don't have the separation that you have...11th place OkC is only 6 games behind the 3rd place Suns in my model! Either way, it's going to be a really interesting finish!

FNG wrote:

60WinTim wrote:So I decided to bump the Suns, Clippers and Mavs into the top tier. The Wolves loss is a klunker, and I will not put them in the top tier. I have not added any other teams to the Bottom (tanking) group just, yet. So the current standing show the Wolves tied with the Warriors, Lakers and Jazz for the 10th seed. I am hopeful the Wolves can produce more "anti-klunkers" than those other three teams! The race is really nuts with the 13th team being just 2 games behind the 6th seed!

Code: Select all

Top Teams:		76ers,Bucks,Cavaliers,Celtics,Clippers,Grizzlies,Mavericks,Nuggets,Suns
Bottom Teams:		Hornets,Pacers,Pistons,Rockets,Spurs

Projections:
Seed	Team	Wins	Losses
3.	Suns	52	30
4.	Mavs	50	32
5.	Clips	50	32
6.	Pels	40	42
7.	Kings	40	42
8.	Thunder	39	43
9.	Blazers	39	43
10.	Wolves	38	44
11.	Lakers	38	44
12.	Warrior	38	44
13.	Jazz	38	44

Tough loss last night, Tim. I also have the Wolves and Golden State tied in my spreadsheet, but ties for 9th, not 10th. I also don't have the separation that you have...11th place OkC is only 6 games behind the 3rd place Suns in my model! Either way, it's going to be a really interesting finish!

You probably have more teams in the "Bottom Tier" than I currently have...

I was surprised the Wolves settled for leaving Gobert one-on-one against Beal over and over in crunch time. That's on Finch. He either needed a different scheme, or sub Rudy out. But there we so many other contributing factors to the loss: putrid bench, poor end-of-quarter execution, poor decisions by Edwards in the end, and 0 points by our PGs.

Here's some red meat from Jon K for the "doom and gloom" guys here...this might push you guys a little further out on the ledge!

https://theathletic.com/4218285/2023/02/17/nba-timberwolves-mike-conley/?source=weeklyemail&campaign=602288

A tragic 4th quarter led to our 6th straight loss to the Wizards during a period where they have not exactly been a dominant team. I'm going to give the Wolves a pass on this one though. Conley's comments after the game were telling...he said he was emotionally and physically drained after the turmoil of the post-trade week. Anybody here who either had or has young kids (and Conley has three...two in school) has to understand how having to uproot your family and make plans for a move to a new city can be draining. We can choose to mock him for that statement, or take him at face value and assume we will have a much more energized and focused Mike Conley after the break. In any event, we needed his leadership when the Wizards switched to a zone in the 4th, and instead the ball seemed to be in SloMo's or Ant's hands most of the quarter...and SloMo's missed 2 footers and Ant's turnovers didn't help. I'm not at all holding Conley faultless though...he needs to step up and right the ship when it's floundering, and he didn't. But I'm going to accept his reasons for his poor 4th quarter and look forward to better games.

Russell-Edwards-McDaniels-Towns-Gobert:
108.2 ORtg, 104.2 DRtg, +4.0 NetRtg in 260 minutes

Russell-Edwards-McDaniels-Anderson-Gobert:
114.6 ORtg, 101.7 DRtg, +12.9 NetRtg in 253 minutes

Conley-Edwards-McDaniels-Anderson-Gobert:
112.7 ORtg, 116.3 DRtg, -3.6 NetRtg in 38 minutes


Incredibly small sample size (38 minutes in three games) for the Mike Conley Jr. lineup, but we do have a baseline for this team with or without Karl-Anthony Towns.

That supposedly "better fit" at PG should lead to better results. Still early, but... we need a lot more.

FNG wrote:Here's some red meat from Jon K for the "doom and gloom" guys here...this might push you guys a little further out on the ledge!

https://theathletic.com/4218285/2023/02/17/nba-timberwolves-mike-conley/?source=weeklyemail&campaign=602288

A tragic 4th quarter led to our 6th straight loss to the Wizards during a period where they have not exactly been a dominant team. I'm going to give the Wolves a pass on this one though. Conley's comments after the game were telling...he said he was emotionally and physically drained after the turmoil of the post-trade week. Anybody here who either had or has young kids (and Conley has three...two in school) has to understand how having to uproot your family and make plans for a move to a new city can be draining. We can choose to mock him for that statement, or take him at face value and assume we will have a much more energized and focused Mike Conley after the break. In any event, we needed his leadership when the Wizards switched to a zone in the 4th, and instead the ball seemed to be in SloMo's or Ant's hands most of the quarter...and SloMo's missed 2 footers and Ant's turnovers didn't help. I'm not at all holding Conley faultless though...he needs to step up and right the ship when it's floundering, and he didn't. But I'm going to accept his reasons for his poor 4th quarter and look forward to better games.

I can't help but wonder if you would be so forgiving to D. Russell after he had a rough +/- night... other circumstances be damned.




[Note: One of the hazards of selling the farm is (1) what to do with Russell's contract (2) and if you choose to trade him, (3) accepting that the new guy is going to take time to gel with new teammates even though the team can't really risk any more losses. I don't blame Conley for his slow beginning in Minnesota. This entire season is on Tim Connelly... whether it ends well or embarrassingly terrible... it's all on him.]