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Re: Pacers are looking to rebuild
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2021 11:56 am
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
Camden wrote:FNG, with all due respect, you're forecasting the Wolves to be 18-32 (.360) through 50 games, or before February 1st. That's a 30-win pace for the year. You're projecting them to be no better than 7-19 over that stretch. That is what I'd consider to be highly pessimistic and pretty irrational given where the team is right now and what they've shown already.
I also think you're overrating the difficulty of the schedule in January. There are six games (LAC, GS, BRK, GS, PHX, UTA) where the Wolves will be significant underdogs. The other nine are games Minnesota will either be favored in or close to even odds. That's not exactly a death sentence for the season.
"30-win pace" on the season does not equate to what FNG is actually predicting since you are cutting things off right at the end of the hardest stretch. Did anyone predict we'd be 0-6 right before we went on that 6-game losing streak? I would have called that irrational too! Orlando!!!
Re: Pacers are looking to rebuild
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2021 12:10 pm
by AbeVigodaLive
I'm happy that the franchise is at a place where an 18 - 32 record is considered irrational pessimistic.
Especially considering this ill-fated franchise has finished well below that winning percentage in 15 of its 32 years of existence, including the previous two seasons.
Progress!
Re: Pacers are looking to rebuild
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2021 12:14 pm
by FNG
Camden wrote:FNG, with all due respect, you're forecasting the Wolves to be 18-32 (.360) through 50 games, or before February 1st. That's a 30-win pace for the year. You're projecting them to be no better than 7-19 over that stretch. That is what I'd consider to be highly pessimistic and pretty irrational given where the team is right now and what they've shown already.
I also think you're overrating the difficulty of the schedule in January. There are six games (LAC, GS, BRK, GS, PHX, UTA) where the Wolves will be significant underdogs. The other nine are games Minnesota will either be favored in or close to even odds. That's not exactly a death sentence for the season.
I hope you're right, Cam. I see several other games in January where I see us as a significant underdog, unless the luck we've experienced with opponents' key injuries continues...not out of the question, by the way. In addition to the games you cite, I think we will be significant underdogs @LAL, @Memphis, @NY, @Atlanta, and @Portland (I expect their two guards to be back by then. And Houston has won 6 in a row now, and the Pelicans are playing quite well and should be favored at home even if 330 pound Zion isn't back. It looks like a brutal schedule to me.
Re: Pacers are looking to rebuild
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2021 12:20 pm
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
Q12543 wrote:Camden wrote:FNG, with all due respect, you're forecasting the Wolves to be 18-32 (.360) through 50 games, or before February 1st. That's a 30-win pace for the year. You're projecting them to be no better than 7-19 over that stretch. That is what I'd consider to be highly pessimistic and pretty irrational given where the team is right now and what they've shown already.
I also think you're overrating the difficulty of the schedule in January. There are six games (LAC, GS, BRK, GS, PHX, UTA) where the Wolves will be significant underdogs. The other nine are games Minnesota will either be favored in or close to even odds. That's not exactly a death sentence for the season.
"30-win pace" on the season does not equate to what FNG is actually predicting since you are cutting things off right at the end of the hardest stretch. Did anyone predict we'd be 0-6 right before we went on that 6-game losing streak? I would have called that irrational too! Orlando!!!
Q, a win percentage of .360 equates to winning 30-games over an 82-game schedule. After January, that's the pace Minnesota would be on if they went 7-19. I did not say that FNG is predicting the Wolves to win 30 games, but he is forecasting a pretty awful midsection to the season that would leave them in that situation. Hopefully that's a bit more digestible.