Q-was-here wrote:
The problem though when you look at the advanced stats on him is that the picture is mixed. Yes, his PER and VORP are down, but go look at the win-loss record of the Wolves when he played versus not played and go look at his On/Off ratings last season. They point definitively to someone whose team was better when he was on the floor playing. And what's more important for a point guard than making your team better???
My point isn't to suggest that we absolutely have to hitch our wagon to him over the long run. My point is that it's a really tough decision because there is data that goes in both directions on his effectiveness.
Q, the won/loss record - especially with KAT/DLO playing together has been brought up in almost every DLO discussion. I don't completely discount it. Wins are the end goal - we know that. But how do you evaluate the individual player? Certainly not by Wins/Losses. It's a team game and because of that, sometimes a team can carry a guy and vice-versa. Obviously that's where individual advance stats can sometimes shine a light on things.
You'll never read me write that DLO didn't help this team. He did. But not $30M/year worth. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. A hundred things can happen between now and the trade deadline to alter all of our perspectives on this.
But you can evaluate the individual player by what happens when he is playing and when he isn't playing. The bottom line is when you take Wolves players X, Y, and Z without DLO, they are worse than when it's X,Y, and Z with DLO. That has to say something about DLO's positive impact as an individual player, no?
Finally, legit starting PGs in the NBA that can pass and create shots are freakin' expensive. They don't need to be all-stars to command big salaries.
My alternative path is to find a role-playing PG (like Tyus Jones!) at something closer to $15M per year and let Ant and KAT run the offense, but Ant hasn't proven that he can make others around him better yet so that has a bunch of risks too.
Q-was-here wrote: But you can evaluate the individual player by what happens when he is playing and when he isn't playing. The bottom line is when you take Wolves players X, Y, and Z without DLO, they are worse than when it's X,Y, and Z with DLO. That has to say something about DLO's positive impact as an individual player, no?But you can evaluate the individual player by what happens when he is playing and when he isn't playing. The bottom line is when you take Wolves players X, Y, and Z without DLO, they are worse than when it's X,Y, and Z with DLO. That has to say something about DLO's positive impact as an individual player, no?
Finally, legit starting PGs in the NBA that can pass and create shots are freakin' expensive. They don't need to be all-stars to command big salaries.
My alternative path is to find a role-playing PG (like Tyus Jones!) at something closer to $15M per year and let Ant and KAT run the offense, but Ant hasn't proven that he can make others around him better yet so that has a bunch of risks too.
The answer to your question is "maybe".
People are entitled to use whatever stats they want to. I personally don't rely on on/off because you are looking at small samples rather than total data. I don't feel like it's going to be as accurate as looking at the whole. Furthermore, it will include more team noise than individual stats. I would assume the Wolves decision makers are looking at other data too because if they just went by "Wolves record with KAT/DLO" they would have extended him by now - right? While that stat is an interesting to quote, it's going to be far more complicated than that.
Q-was-here wrote:
The problem though when you look at the advanced stats on him is that the picture is mixed. Yes, his PER and VORP are down, but go look at the win-loss record of the Wolves when he played versus not played and go look at his On/Off ratings last season. They point definitively to someone whose team was better when he was on the floor playing. And what's more important for a point guard than making your team better???
My point isn't to suggest that we absolutely have to hitch our wagon to him over the long run. My point is that it's a really tough decision because there is data that goes in both directions on his effectiveness.
Q, the won/loss record - especially with KAT/DLO playing together has been brought up in almost every DLO discussion. I don't completely discount it. Wins are the end goal - we know that. But how do you evaluate the individual player? Certainly not by Wins/Losses. It's a team game and because of that, sometimes a team can carry a guy and vice-versa. Obviously that's where individual advance stats can sometimes shine a light on things.
You'll never read me write that DLO didn't help this team. He did. But not $30M/year worth. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. A hundred things can happen between now and the trade deadline to alter all of our perspectives on this.
But you can evaluate the individual player by what happens when he is playing and when he isn't playing. The bottom line is when you take Wolves players X, Y, and Z without DLO, they are worse than when it's X,Y, and Z with DLO. That has to say something about DLO's positive impact as an individual player, no?
Finally, legit starting PGs in the NBA that can pass and create shots are freakin' expensive. They don't need to be all-stars to command big salaries.
My alternative path is to find a role-playing PG (like Tyus Jones!) at something closer to $15M per year and let Ant and KAT run the offense, but Ant hasn't proven that he can make others around him better yet so that has a bunch of risks too.
Both of you make good points here. I don't completely discount the win/loss argument either. If we could get a Tyus level player for 15 mil, I would be ecstatic.
Yes, maybe TC has painted himself into a corner a bit and I would have preferred Murray and capella also, but I think TC is ready to roll with Jaylen Nowell as the starter next to Ant next year. I think they really like Nowell and I think that's at least the backup plan if nothing else presents itself. Bring jmac off the bench, sign another quality rotation PG with the MLE and I think we're in great shape. We certainly don't need to spend the MLE on another big as we're stacked there.
Signing a player at 15 mil in Dlo's spot erases any opportunity to add a 30 Mil asset. If were going to improve our pg play we arent going to do it for 15 mil. I would rather wait for a high level distressed asset closer to 30 mil and pounce on that with DLo's 30.
thedoper wrote:Signing a player at 15 mil in Dlo's spot erases any opportunity to add a 30 Mil asset. If were going to improve our pg play we arent going to do it for 15 mil. I would rather wait for a high level distressed asset closer to 30 mil and pounce on that with DLo's 30.
I don't understand your thinking at all... do you really think this team is going to be able to afford to pay Dlo (or anyone else) 30 mil per yea, then pay ant the max, Jaden presumably 12-15 per, and nowell 12-15 per? You guys need to stop worrying about replacing Dlo's salary slot, we're not the warriors... this team won't be paying a 4th guy the max or anywhere near it. Maybe if Dlo has a great year, we resign him for 20/year... but that's the most we'll be paying a 4th guy. Yes I can definitely see this team going into the luxury tax for a year at a time, but we're not the warriors, so quit worrying about losing Dlo's max slot.
thedoper wrote:Signing a player at 15 mil in Dlo's spot erases any opportunity to add a 30 Mil asset. If were going to improve our pg play we arent going to do it for 15 mil. I would rather wait for a high level distressed asset closer to 30 mil and pounce on that with DLo's 30.
I don't understand your thinking at all... do you really think this team is going to be able to afford to pay Dlo (or anyone else) 30 mil per yea, then pay ant the max, Jaden presumably 12-15 per, and nowell 12-15 per? You guys need to stop worrying about replacing Dlo's salary slot, we're not the warriors... this team won't be paying a 4th guy the max or anywhere near it. Maybe if Dlo has a great year, we resign him for 20/year... but that's the most we'll be paying a 4th guy. Yes I can definitely see this team going into the luxury tax for a year at a time, but we're not the warriors, so quit worrying about losing Dlo's max slot.
Salary cap going up, values of team going up. The warriors saw this and rightly capitalized on it. You can trade off of 4 max slots, but you can never get them back. Rolling it back a 4th slot before the salary cap spike would be idiotic from an investment perspective. Keep your flexibility to spend.
thedoper wrote:Signing a player at 15 mil in Dlo's spot erases any opportunity to add a 30 Mil asset. If were going to improve our pg play we arent going to do it for 15 mil. I would rather wait for a high level distressed asset closer to 30 mil and pounce on that with DLo's 30.
I don't understand your thinking at all... do you really think this team is going to be able to afford to pay Dlo (or anyone else) 30 mil per yea, then pay ant the max, Jaden presumably 12-15 per, and nowell 12-15 per? You guys need to stop worrying about replacing Dlo's salary slot, we're not the warriors... this team won't be paying a 4th guy the max or anywhere near it. Maybe if Dlo has a great year, we resign him for 20/year... but that's the most we'll be paying a 4th guy. Yes I can definitely see this team going into the luxury tax for a year at a time, but we're not the warriors, so quit worrying about losing Dlo's max slot.
Salary cap going up, values of team going up. The warriors saw this and rightly capitalized on it. You can trade off of 4 max slots, but you can never get them back. Rolling it back a 4th slot before the salary cap spike would be idiotic from an investment perspective. Keep your flexibility to spend.
Bottom line is that the Wolves won't be able to sign a player at $15 million per year to replace DLO. Even with the salary cap likely going up to $134 million next season, the Wolves will likely be capped out even without DLO's salary, which means the Wolves can't spend more than the MLE of around $10 million. So the Wolves have three choices when it comes to DLO: (1) trade him by the February deadline for a player or players within the CBA's salary-match range; (2) extend DLO at an amount that will likely be in the $25-35 million per year range; or (3) let DLO walk next summer and replace him with someone at the MLE level up to around $10 million per year.
thedoper wrote:Signing a player at 15 mil in Dlo's spot erases any opportunity to add a 30 Mil asset. If were going to improve our pg play we arent going to do it for 15 mil. I would rather wait for a high level distressed asset closer to 30 mil and pounce on that with DLo's 30.
I don't understand your thinking at all... do you really think this team is going to be able to afford to pay Dlo (or anyone else) 30 mil per yea, then pay ant the max, Jaden presumably 12-15 per, and nowell 12-15 per? You guys need to stop worrying about replacing Dlo's salary slot, we're not the warriors... this team won't be paying a 4th guy the max or anywhere near it. Maybe if Dlo has a great year, we resign him for 20/year... but that's the most we'll be paying a 4th guy. Yes I can definitely see this team going into the luxury tax for a year at a time, but we're not the warriors, so quit worrying about losing Dlo's max slot.
Salary cap going up, values of team going up. The warriors saw this and rightly capitalized on it. You can trade off of 4 max slots, but you can never get them back. Rolling it back a 4th slot before the salary cap spike would be idiotic from an investment perspective. Keep your flexibility to spend.
Bottom line is that the Wolves won't be able to sign a player at $15 million per year to replace DLO. Even with the salary cap likely going up to $134 million next season, the Wolves will likely be capped out even without DLO's salary, which means the Wolves can't spend more than the MLE of around $10 million. So the Wolves have three choices when it comes to DLO: (1) trade him by the February deadline for a player or players within the CBA's salary-match range; (2) extend DLO at an amount that will likely be in the $25-35 million per year range; or (3) let DLO walk next summer and replace him with someone at the MLE level up to around $10 million per year.
Yes the chance goes away to ever have that money on a PG, that is the gist of my point. With a rising cap if we keep that slot around 30 mil I dont believe that we would be due for a massive lux tax bill in that first year. If we want to keep the rest of our roster I think the move for the most flexibility is 1 or 2. Shedding salary or downgrading value before the cap spike is bad economics.
thedoper wrote:Signing a player at 15 mil in Dlo's spot erases any opportunity to add a 30 Mil asset. If were going to improve our pg play we arent going to do it for 15 mil. I would rather wait for a high level distressed asset closer to 30 mil and pounce on that with DLo's 30.
I don't understand your thinking at all... do you really think this team is going to be able to afford to pay Dlo (or anyone else) 30 mil per yea, then pay ant the max, Jaden presumably 12-15 per, and nowell 12-15 per? You guys need to stop worrying about replacing Dlo's salary slot, we're not the warriors... this team won't be paying a 4th guy the max or anywhere near it. Maybe if Dlo has a great year, we resign him for 20/year... but that's the most we'll be paying a 4th guy. Yes I can definitely see this team going into the luxury tax for a year at a time, but we're not the warriors, so quit worrying about losing Dlo's max slot.
Salary cap going up, values of team going up. The warriors saw this and rightly capitalized on it. You can trade off of 4 max slots, but you can never get them back. Rolling it back a 4th slot before the salary cap spike would be idiotic from an investment perspective. Keep your flexibility to spend.
Bottom line is that the Wolves won't be able to sign a player at $15 million per year to replace DLO. Even with the salary cap likely going up to $134 million next season, the Wolves will likely be capped out even without DLO's salary, which means the Wolves can't spend more than the MLE of around $10 million. So the Wolves have three choices when it comes to DLO: (1) trade him by the February deadline for a player or players within the CBA's salary-match range; (2) extend DLO at an amount that will likely be in the $25-35 million per year range; or (3) let DLO walk next summer and replace him with someone at the MLE level up to around $10 million per year.
Yes the chance goes away to ever have that money on a PG, that is the gist of my point. With a rising cap if we keep that slot around 30 mil I dont believe that we would be due for a massive lux tax bill in that first year. If we want to keep the rest of our roster I think the move for the most flexibility is 1 or 2. Shedding salary or downgrading value before the cap spike is bad economics.
I'm not sure where we'd be regarding the luxury tax over the span of a 3 or 4 year DLO deal at $30M per year. I think it would be pretty ugly once you factor in a max deal for Edwards, a big deal for McDaniels and a pretty hefty contract for Nowell. Nevertheless, I agree with you Doper, it doesn't seem to make much sense just letting DLO walk next summer given the team's obvious intent to compete for a championship during Gobert's limited window. The only caveat to that is if someone like Nowell, Edwards or JMac emerges as a better lead guard than DLO. But even then, the best move would be trading DLO at the deadline, not just letting him walk.
