Minnesota Sports Forum

Mikkeman! Good to hear from you.

You are absolutely correct about the cumulative effect of the percentages Kek applied. Still, we traded those picks for a 100% all-star and top 3 or 4 NBA Center in exchange for a 28% chance of an all-star in the future.

Manu was at one point arguably the 2nd or 3rd best SG in the NBA. The fact he came off the bench probably muted his all-star appeal. What a find by the Spurs.

AbeVigodaLive wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

AbeVigodaLive wrote:

Camden wrote:Not to mention, you could easily argue that the Atlanta Hawks set the market this summer with their acquisition of Dejounte Murray by giving up three first-round picks and a pick swap. Certainly, trading for the significantly better player in Rudy Gobert would ultimately cost more than that. And that's not even bringing up recent trades for other star players in Anthony Davis, James Harden, and Paul George that essentially set the precedent of what that haul should look like.

I'm cool with this.

But a counterpoint could be made that brings salaries into the mix to help justify both returns. D. Murray is only 25 and making only $35M over the next TWO seasons combined. Gobert will be paid more than that just this season... and will be making $40+M into his mid 30s.


[Note: Four years of team control vs. two can be the counter to that counter IF you think Gobert maintains his value or IF you think Murray jettisons Atlanta for another team in two years.]

The next question is whether or not Murray is worth the salary it may take to keep him on the roster. Maybe he doesn't get a max deal. It's pretty clear the Spurs didn't think he would be worth what they thought he would be paid especially considering the assets they would receive in return.

Murray is a 1 time all star that is a questionable 3 point shooter and that was playing on the Spurs. He certainly has potential to continue his trajectory upwards but that's not certain either. How many guys that were supposed to ascend to the next level didn't and actually dropped off a bit?

Sure.

But I will say that D. Murray's trajectory has been very consistently moving upward. He's significantly improved in each of his first 5 seasons. While it's possible it suddenly stagnates in a new setting, it's usually a good bet to take a swing on younger guys that show steady, tangible improvement every year early in their careers.

He took a big leap from rookie year to year 2, then sort of stagnated a bit as he came back from his injury. Last year he took another big leap. He seems perfect next to Trae Young because I'm not sure Murray is the kind of guy that can carry an offense, but he can certainly be a high level #2 or #3 option that does a lot of things well.

I've continued to acknowledge that the Rudy Gobert trade was an overpay -- albeit not by much -- but I'm not nearly as rattled as some others here are about losing future draft capital. Part of that is because I have always believed that a developed star player is far more valuable than a handful of could-be's and might-not-ever-be's as it pertains to undeveloped talent and draft picks. The other significant part is that I have faith in Tim Connelly as an executive AND the Timberwolves scouting department to find young talent outside of the first round moving forward. Just in the last few years this organization unearthed Jaylen Nowell, Naz Reid, Jordan McLaughlin, and Nathan Knight without expending a first-round pick on them. They'll need to continue to do that and more moving forward and their jobs are arguably easier than in the past because instead of finding star talent they'll need to find supporting talent. There's a lot more of the latter and they can be found outside of the first-round.

It's also worth remembering that Minnesota still possesses a first-round pick in 2024, 2026, and 2028 as well as second-round picks in 2023, 2026, 2028, and 2029. They gave up a lot, but there are still plenty of opportunities to find and develop young talent in the future. Media and fans alike are acting as if the Timberwolves will be without picks over the next decade. That's not the case.

Camden wrote:I've continued to acknowledge that the Rudy Gobert trade was an overpay -- albeit not by much -- but I'm not nearly as rattled as some others here are about losing future draft capital. Part of that is because I have always believed that a developed star player is far more valuable than a handful of could-be's and might-not-ever-be's as it pertains to undeveloped talent and draft picks. The other significant part is that I have faith in Tim Connelly as an executive AND the Timberwolves scouting department to find young talent outside of the first round moving forward. Just in the last few years this organization unearthed Jaylen Nowell, Naz Reid, Jordan McLaughlin, and Nathan Knight without expending a first-round pick on them. They'll need to continue to do that and more moving forward and their jobs are arguably easier than in the past because instead of finding star talent they'll need to find supporting talent. There's a lot more of the latter and they can be found outside of the first-round.

It's also worth remembering that Minnesota still possesses a first-round pick in 2024, 2026, and 2028 as well as second-round picks in 2023, 2026, 2028, and 2029. They gave up a lot, but there are still plenty of opportunities to find and develop young talent in the future. Media and fans alike are acting as if the Timberwolves will be without picks over the next decade. That's not the case.

Good post, Cam. I like your point about other opportunities to find young talent via the Wolves remaining three first-round picks, four second-round picks and undrafted free-agents over the next seven years. I'll add that we have a nice collection of young talent including Edwards, McDaniels, Nowell, Reid, Moore and Minott. That's all good.

lipoli390 wrote:

Camden wrote:I've continued to acknowledge that the Rudy Gobert trade was an overpay -- albeit not by much -- but I'm not nearly as rattled as some others here are about losing future draft capital. Part of that is because I have always believed that a developed star player is far more valuable than a handful of could-be's and might-not-ever-be's as it pertains to undeveloped talent and draft picks. The other significant part is that I have faith in Tim Connelly as an executive AND the Timberwolves scouting department to find young talent outside of the first round moving forward. Just in the last few years this organization unearthed Jaylen Nowell, Naz Reid, Jordan McLaughlin, and Nathan Knight without expending a first-round pick on them. They'll need to continue to do that and more moving forward and their jobs are arguably easier than in the past because instead of finding star talent they'll need to find supporting talent. There's a lot more of the latter and they can be found outside of the first-round.

It's also worth remembering that Minnesota still possesses a first-round pick in 2024, 2026, and 2028 as well as second-round picks in 2023, 2026, 2028, and 2029. They gave up a lot, but there are still plenty of opportunities to find and develop young talent in the future. Media and fans alike are acting as if the Timberwolves will be without picks over the next decade. That's not the case.

Good post, Cam. I like your point about other opportunities to find young talent via the Wolves remaining three first-round picks, four second-round picks and undrafted free-agents over the next seven years. I'll add that we have a nice collection of young talent including Edwards, McDaniels, Nowell, Reid, Moore and Minott. That's all good.

I think Cam makes an excellent point that the Wolves are pretty talented right now and they likely need to just fill in the roster with talent to fill in the roster around that high end talent. That doesn't mean you stop looking for a higher end talent. In addition sometimes a core piece isn't an all star level player. Those kind of guys can be found many ways. Robert Covington comes to mind as a player that was a core guy that will never be an all star and he was undrafted. Back to Cam's fill in the roster idea there are guys that aren't core level players, weren't drafted high and were very useful. McLaughlin looks to be one of those guys. Dwight Powell who was traded a number of times before he even played an NBA game comes to mind. TJ McConnell is another undrafted guy that isn't a core player but is having a nice career. Alex Caruso is a pretty valuable player.

Q-was-here wrote:

Tactical unit wrote:Probably the hardest off season in Wolves history and the hardest off season grade to make in 2022 out of all the NBA teams. You can look at all the benefits and be super jacked up in a good way about this team and want to give a high grade or you can look at assets spent and what those assets could have landed and think we spent way to much and focus on that and give a low grade.

It's a trade I could have never made, the pick swap says it all for me "I got you by the balls and I know it!" Lack of protection on picks with all those assets being sent out in my eyes is slightly reckless. Players with value sent out in addition to all those picks seemed like a lack of maximizing value.

I'll hold true to my original thoughts, replace Kessler with N. Reid, add in two 2nds from the Jazz to MN in years we lose a 1st (Ainge can pick the years). Lastly take away the disrespectful pick swap and it would have been acceptable even with the lack of pick protection.

My grade B+
I see both sides here and because needs and weaknesses were addressed, lineup flexibility dramatically increased, and the overall end result puts a core in place I can have true excitement about.

That's an interesting statement ("what those assets could have landed"). We know what they landed - Rudy Gobert! And if we had kept the assets, Kekgeek does a really nice job laying out the odds of landing a similarly great player with those first rounders we gave up. Less than 2%!

It's clear I love the Gobert addition and my grade of B+ is still a very solid grade. My statement of "what those assets could have landed" has more than one side to it, what you could have landed could be K. Durant or the next disgruntled mega star intrigued by playing with KAT & ANT. The other side is in the draft and I look at it differently than you. You are giving odds for each individual pick landing a star, however all you have to do is land a McDaniels or higher quality draft pick with upside to grow into something special (player doesn't have to pan out or might be more role player than star long term but that upside and youth is the allure) and then you may be able to package that high upside player with much less draft capital to land a disgruntled star.

Regardless of result how can you not see this as an overpay? No contracts taken back were bad and are in fact assets to some degree. Then add in all the firsts, a swap and Kessler who's rim protection and rebounding....well we will see how he pans out.

PLEASE ADDRESS BELOW
I have no way of knowing the negotiation process that took place but I would have asked one simple question to Ainge. When MN traded you a HOF Big aka KG what did you have to pay to land him?

Again grade of B+, love Gobert and team construct, however it's still an overpay.

Camden wrote:I've continued to acknowledge that the Rudy Gobert trade was an overpay -- albeit not by much -- but I'm not nearly as rattled as some others here are about losing future draft capital. Part of that is because I have always believed that a developed star player is far more valuable than a handful of could-be's and might-not-ever-be's as it pertains to undeveloped talent and draft picks. The other significant part is that I have faith in Tim Connelly as an executive AND the Timberwolves scouting department to find young talent outside of the first round moving forward. Just in the last few years this organization unearthed Jaylen Nowell, Naz Reid, Jordan McLaughlin, and Nathan Knight without expending a first-round pick on them. They'll need to continue to do that and more moving forward and their jobs are arguably easier than in the past because instead of finding star talent they'll need to find supporting talent. There's a lot more of the latter and they can be found outside of the first-round.

It's also worth remembering that Minnesota still possesses a first-round pick in 2024, 2026, and 2028 as well as second-round picks in 2023, 2026, 2028, and 2029. They gave up a lot, but there are still plenty of opportunities to find and develop young talent in the future. Media and fans alike are acting as if the Timberwolves will be without picks over the next decade. That's not the case.

Scouting success / luck and TC's ability to find talent are the goals regardless making a Gobert trade. I don't think media and fans are acting like MN won't have picks, I think the situation is known quite clearly. Glad you at least acknowledge it was an overpay. I think TC looked at the abundance of assets, his incentives to win and said I don't care if I am overpaying I'm taking my shot.

Tactical unit wrote:

Q-was-here wrote:

Tactical unit wrote:Probably the hardest off season in Wolves history and the hardest off season grade to make in 2022 out of all the NBA teams. You can look at all the benefits and be super jacked up in a good way about this team and want to give a high grade or you can look at assets spent and what those assets could have landed and think we spent way to much and focus on that and give a low grade.

It's a trade I could have never made, the pick swap says it all for me "I got you by the balls and I know it!" Lack of protection on picks with all those assets being sent out in my eyes is slightly reckless. Players with value sent out in addition to all those picks seemed like a lack of maximizing value.

I'll hold true to my original thoughts, replace Kessler with N. Reid, add in two 2nds from the Jazz to MN in years we lose a 1st (Ainge can pick the years). Lastly take away the disrespectful pick swap and it would have been acceptable even with the lack of pick protection.

My grade B+
I see both sides here and because needs and weaknesses were addressed, lineup flexibility dramatically increased, and the overall end result puts a core in place I can have true excitement about.

That's an interesting statement ("what those assets could have landed"). We know what they landed - Rudy Gobert! And if we had kept the assets, Kekgeek does a really nice job laying out the odds of landing a similarly great player with those first rounders we gave up. Less than 2%!

It's clear I love the Gobert addition and my grade of B+ is still a very solid grade. My statement of "what those assets could have landed" has more than one side to it, what you could have landed could be K. Durant or the next disgruntled mega star intrigued by playing with KAT & ANT. The other side is in the draft and I look at it differently than you. You are giving odds for each individual pick landing a star, however all you have to do is land a McDaniels or higher quality draft pick with upside to grow into something special (player doesn't have to pan out or might be more role player than star long term but that upside and youth is the allure) and then you may be able to package that high upside player with much less draft capital to land a disgruntled star.

Regardless of result how can you not see this as an overpay? No contracts taken back were bad and are in fact assets to some degree. Then add in all the firsts, a swap and Kessler who's rim protection and rebounding....well we will see how he pans out.

PLEASE ADDRESS BELOW
I have no way of knowing the negotiation process that took place but I would have asked one simple question to Ainge. When MN traded you a HOF Big aka KG what did you have to pay to land him?

Again grade of B+, love Gobert and team construct, however it's still an overpay.

The problem with this approach is that a) you can't time when that opportunity might arise; b) you can't predict what kind of fit said disgruntled star will be; and c) you also can't predict what their contract situation might look like.

The Wolves looked at Gobert being made available as a golden opportunity to add a major piece that they believe compliments their current pieces and is locked in for the next four seasons. They decided to make their move thinking that an opportunity to acquire such a player may not present itself again in the Ant/KAT era. And I think they might be right.

(on the KG trade, one thing the Wolves got that the Jazz didn't get was an emerging young talent in Al Jefferson. In hindsight, Jefferson never became as good as hoped because of defensive shortcomings, but at the time the trade was made he was thought of as a potential pillar in Minnesota's effort to rebuild).

Q-was-here wrote:

Tactical unit wrote:

Q-was-here wrote:

Tactical unit wrote:Probably the hardest off season in Wolves history and the hardest off season grade to make in 2022 out of all the NBA teams. You can look at all the benefits and be super jacked up in a good way about this team and want to give a high grade or you can look at assets spent and what those assets could have landed and think we spent way to much and focus on that and give a low grade.

It's a trade I could have never made, the pick swap says it all for me "I got you by the balls and I know it!" Lack of protection on picks with all those assets being sent out in my eyes is slightly reckless. Players with value sent out in addition to all those picks seemed like a lack of maximizing value.

I'll hold true to my original thoughts, replace Kessler with N. Reid, add in two 2nds from the Jazz to MN in years we lose a 1st (Ainge can pick the years). Lastly take away the disrespectful pick swap and it would have been acceptable even with the lack of pick protection.

My grade B+
I see both sides here and because needs and weaknesses were addressed, lineup flexibility dramatically increased, and the overall end result puts a core in place I can have true excitement about.

That's an interesting statement ("what those assets could have landed"). We know what they landed - Rudy Gobert! And if we had kept the assets, Kekgeek does a really nice job laying out the odds of landing a similarly great player with those first rounders we gave up. Less than 2%!

It's clear I love the Gobert addition and my grade of B+ is still a very solid grade. My statement of "what those assets could have landed" has more than one side to it, what you could have landed could be K. Durant or the next disgruntled mega star intrigued by playing with KAT & ANT. The other side is in the draft and I look at it differently than you. You are giving odds for each individual pick landing a star, however all you have to do is land a McDaniels or higher quality draft pick with upside to grow into something special (player doesn't have to pan out or might be more role player than star long term but that upside and youth is the allure) and then you may be able to package that high upside player with much less draft capital to land a disgruntled star.

Regardless of result how can you not see this as an overpay? No contracts taken back were bad and are in fact assets to some degree. Then add in all the firsts, a swap and Kessler who's rim protection and rebounding....well we will see how he pans out.

PLEASE ADDRESS BELOW
I have no way of knowing the negotiation process that took place but I would have asked one simple question to Ainge. When MN traded you a HOF Big aka KG what did you have to pay to land him?

Again grade of B+, love Gobert and team construct, however it's still an overpay.

The problem with this approach is that a) you can't time when that opportunity might arise; b) you can't predict what kind of fit said disgruntled star will be; and c) you also can't predict what their contract situation might look like.

The Wolves looked at Gobert being made available as a golden opportunity to add a major piece that they believe compliments their current pieces and is locked in for the next four seasons. They decided to make their move thinking that an opportunity to acquire such a player may not present itself again in the Ant/KAT era. And I think they might be right.

(on the KG trade, one thing the Wolves got that the Jazz didn't get was an emerging young talent in Al Jefferson. In hindsight, Jefferson never became as good as hoped because of defensive shortcomings, but at the time the trade was made he was thought of as a potential pillar in Minnesota's effort to rebuild).

I'll also add that you don't know if the next star/really high impact player will want to come to the Wolves.

I think the assets given up for Gobert most people weren't really looking at using them on a star player anyway. I think most were thinking at most use them on a Jrue Holiday type deal and then maybe another smaller deal instead. That was still a lot for Jrue and quite frankly I thought it was an overpay at the time. It worked out pretty well for Milwaukee. Also if people wonder if the Wolves can make a deal to add an impactful vet even with limited assets look up what the Bucks really gave up to get PJ Tucker. It's a bit complicated but ultimately it wasn't a whole lot.

Q-was-here wrote:

Tactical unit wrote:

Q-was-here wrote:

Tactical unit wrote:Probably the hardest off season in Wolves history and the hardest off season grade to make in 2022 out of all the NBA teams. You can look at all the benefits and be super jacked up in a good way about this team and want to give a high grade or you can look at assets spent and what those assets could have landed and think we spent way to much and focus on that and give a low grade.

It's a trade I could have never made, the pick swap says it all for me "I got you by the balls and I know it!" Lack of protection on picks with all those assets being sent out in my eyes is slightly reckless. Players with value sent out in addition to all those picks seemed like a lack of maximizing value.

I'll hold true to my original thoughts, replace Kessler with N. Reid, add in two 2nds from the Jazz to MN in years we lose a 1st (Ainge can pick the years). Lastly take away the disrespectful pick swap and it would have been acceptable even with the lack of pick protection.

My grade B+
I see both sides here and because needs and weaknesses were addressed, lineup flexibility dramatically increased, and the overall end result puts a core in place I can have true excitement about.

That's an interesting statement ("what those assets could have landed"). We know what they landed - Rudy Gobert! And if we had kept the assets, Kekgeek does a really nice job laying out the odds of landing a similarly great player with those first rounders we gave up. Less than 2%!

It's clear I love the Gobert addition and my grade of B+ is still a very solid grade. My statement of "what those assets could have landed" has more than one side to it, what you could have landed could be K. Durant or the next disgruntled mega star intrigued by playing with KAT & ANT. The other side is in the draft and I look at it differently than you. You are giving odds for each individual pick landing a star, however all you have to do is land a McDaniels or higher quality draft pick with upside to grow into something special (player doesn't have to pan out or might be more role player than star long term but that upside and youth is the allure) and then you may be able to package that high upside player with much less draft capital to land a disgruntled star.

Regardless of result how can you not see this as an overpay? No contracts taken back were bad and are in fact assets to some degree. Then add in all the firsts, a swap and Kessler who's rim protection and rebounding....well we will see how he pans out.

PLEASE ADDRESS BELOW
I have no way of knowing the negotiation process that took place but I would have asked one simple question to Ainge. When MN traded you a HOF Big aka KG what did you have to pay to land him?

Again grade of B+, love Gobert and team construct, however it's still an overpay.

The problem with this approach is that a) you can't time when that opportunity might arise; b) you can't predict what kind of fit said disgruntled star will be; and c) you also can't predict what their contract situation might look like.

The Wolves looked at Gobert being made available as a golden opportunity to add a major piece that they believe compliments their current pieces and is locked in for the next four seasons. They decided to make their move thinking that an opportunity to acquire such a player may not present itself again in the Ant/KAT era. And I think they might be right.

(on the KG trade, one thing the Wolves got that the Jazz didn't get was an emerging young talent in Al Jefferson. In hindsight, Jefferson never became as good as hoped because of defensive shortcomings, but at the time the trade was made he was thought of as a potential pillar in Minnesota's effort to rebuild).

This is exactly why I love the trade, it is one of the 1st times a star was traded and a young core piece was not traded back. Wolves gave up a couple of bench rotation pieces with little to no potential. Then my buddy is a stat nerd and did 100,000 simulations based players who were all stars picked from 2000-2019. Here were the results of the Jazz selecting an all star player with one of the wolves picks.

77.12% chance they pick 0 all stars
20.44% chance they pick 1 all star
2.3% chance they pick 2 all stars
.08% chance they 3 pick all stars
1 out 100,000 scenarios they picked 4 all stars

Then for a 3 or more time all star. They gave a 6% chance of drafting one of the guys. Drafting multiple 3 time all stars was so small it was not significant.

Once again wolves in my opinion have 77.12% chance at 100% destroying the trade. Once again based on historical data the wolves only way the wolves lose the trade in my opinion if the Jazz draft multiple all stars or draft an all star that will play in 3 or more all star games and the odds that won't happen are 97.7% and 94% respectively.

I play a decent amount of poker in my free time and those high percentages don't mean it won't happen but I'll take that edge every time and live with the results.

Once again I don't think the wolves really over paid that much for a top 2 defender in the NBA, All NBA talent, who bleeds winning and is under team control for years who fits the wolves biggest weaknesses. As long as the wolves don't give up 2 top 10 picks or a top 5 pick in that 2027 year I have hard time seeing the wolves losing this trade