Flip should thank the gods that he got Wiggins...

[Monster]

Let's not forget that Thad young is a good basketball player and was 26 last year. There was absolutely a chance he was the PF of the future for this team. Adding him was a move for the upcoming season and possibly beyond plus he was a good guy supposed to mentor guys but even that fell apart because of his Mom passing away.

I've never understood the overpaying for Payne thing. I've shared my thoughts on it multiple times but everyone thinks the same way they did. Right now it doesn't look like a good deal and the upside for Payne is key bench player. If he becomes as valuable as say Nick Collison than it was a pretty good trade or at least solid. That's not exactly asking for anything amazing but Payne is quite a ways from that type of player.

As for various outside of lottery 1st round picks various teams have traded for guys or picks that have turned out to be pretty good. Leonard was what the Spurs ended up with trading George Hill. If you want to be a top team in any sport you have to draft well. Q and I like having as many shots as possible but I think both of us see the value in at times quality of moving up to get someone. I am curious to see what Payne can show this year because he will get some minutes when their are injuries or KG not playing.

[TAFKASP]

LOL, so Wolves are finally sitting pretty with two 1st overall pick plus a bunch of other young talents but you guys come here to b/tch about freaking Payne?! Haha LOSERS!!!

Yeah, we are probably spending too much time talking about this trade. Payne should be our 3rd string PF this year, and if the Wolves woeful playoff record continues, the asset we give up for him would be a second rounder in 2021...not a very consequential trade for either team. But I take a more optimistic viewpoint, and think that the Adreian Payne I watched in Vegas this summer will be one of several contributors that will help the Wolves get to the playoffs this year. And if so, it would be difficult to get to upset about not having a pick somewhere in the 20s next year...we'll be too busy analyzing our first round opponent!

Yeah, lost in these conversations is the fact that 99% of mid to late first round picks are at beat rotation players. Payne only needs to be solid contributor to justify the pick.

Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Eric Bledsoe, Serge Ibaka, Jeff Teague, Rudy Gobert, The Greek Freek, Kyle Lowry, Vucevic, Ty Lawson, Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo, Demarre Carroll, Ryan Anderson might disagree with your math.

Just a quick glance through your list and we have Rondo, drafted in 2006, so counting all drafts between then and 2014 we would have nine years, or 144 players drafted in the first round, 15th or lower, the 14 players you listed represents about 2.78% so I was off by 1.8% on an exaggeration!! If I can be that good on a guess imagine how good I could be if I ever tried!!!

[sub]Actually, If I'm being honest I probably would be further off had I tried! :)[/sub]

Edit: Being slightly more serious, I'm sure if you tried you could list more players that would qualify for your list thus increasing my margin of error. Even still, I don't think it would increase greatly and my point still stands, relatively speaking, a solid rotation player with a pick from 15 down still has to be considered a success. Yes, occasionally a team hits the jackpot, but that is far and away the exception to the rule.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Here is the problem.
Bleed, you mention that Portis is the kind of guy that you can get with a #20 pick, and I agree. But I would argue that we already have a Bobby Portis type guy on our roster...and his name is Adreian Payne.

Payne is 24 years old and going in his second season. Portis is 20 years old it was his first experience as a pro. It is a huge gap in my opinion.

Exactly. That's what was so frustrating with Payne. 4 years at Michigan State under Izzo should be the equivalent of getting a PhD in basketball intelligence. Yet Payne looked absolutely clueless at times.

The one thing I do like about Payne is that he does seem to play his ass off. Hustle can take you places. My view is that he needs to channel his inner Kenneth Faried and basically carve out a niche as a blue collar type guy that takes charges, gets offensive boards, wins loose balls, and generally annoys opponents.

I agree that a 24 YO should outplay a 20 YO...that's one reason I gave Towns a pass when he sometimes got pushed around in Vegas this summer against older players. I also agree that basketball IQ may not be Payne's strong suit. But I think it's misguided to form conclusions on what he did on the court for the Wolves late last year at the end of a lost season. Payne is long, athletic and has a great motor, but he seems to me to be the kind of player who may not always "get it" on his own...he needs coaching, and practice time with his teammates to develop familiarity. And as it's been said numerous times here, the Wolves didn't have enough healthy players in March and April to hold practices. Being thrown into that type of environment was the worst possible situation for an NBA rookie, and we got the performance from Adreian that we should have expected. But just look at how different he played in Vegas, after having had the benefit of only a few practices with his teammates. Not that Ryan Saunders is a HOF coach, but just having some instructional scrimmaging that he wasn't able to have last March had him looking much more like the MSU version of AP.

Last year there was considerable annoyance on this board about forming conclusions about Wiggins in his rookie year, but I actually thought we had sufficient data to go on in that instance...there were some defined positives and negatives to debate. But not with AP...we just don't know how he is going to turn out, because the environment he was playing in was so bizarre. If what we saw in the last 30 games last year is all we are going to get out of Payne, then I will agree that it was a poor trade. But if he plays more like the guy we saw in Vegas, I think we have to conclude that this was a good trade. I tend to think his 4 years at MSU plus a solid performance in Vegas is more compelling evidence than what he showed last year after literally being thrown to the Wolves, but I don't have enough information yet to really know. All we know at the time is that Flip traded a guy who was that year's 15th pick in the draft for a future pick that will be at best a 15th pick, and more likely somewhere in the 20s (and possibly even a second rounder). We can have a discussion about the strategic merits of trading a known 15th pick for an unknown future pick, and an argument can be made that the latter could be preferable. But to give this trade anything other than an incomplete at this point in time seems entirely premature to me.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

LOL, so Wolves are finally sitting pretty with two 1st overall pick plus a bunch of other young talents but you guys come here to b/tch about freaking Payne?! Haha LOSERS!!!

Yeah, we are probably spending too much time talking about this trade. Payne should be our 3rd string PF this year, and if the Wolves woeful playoff record continues, the asset we give up for him would be a second rounder in 2021...not a very consequential trade for either team. But I take a more optimistic viewpoint, and think that the Adreian Payne I watched in Vegas this summer will be one of several contributors that will help the Wolves get to the playoffs this year. And if so, it would be difficult to get to upset about not having a pick somewhere in the 20s next year...we'll be too busy analyzing our first round opponent!

Yeah, lost in these conversations is the fact that 99% of mid to late first round picks are at beat rotation players. Payne only needs to be solid contributor to justify the pick.

Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Eric Bledsoe, Serge Ibaka, Jeff Teague, Rudy Gobert, The Greek Freek, Kyle Lowry, Vucevic, Ty Lawson, Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo, Demarre Carroll, Ryan Anderson might disagree with your math.

Just a quick glance through your list and we have Rondo, drafted in 2006, so counting all drafts between then and 2014 we would have nine years, or 144 players drafted in the first round, 15th or lower, the 14 players you listed represents about 2.78% so I was off by 1.8% on an exaggeration!! If I can be that good on a guess imagine how good I could be if I ever tried!!!

[sub]Actually, If I'm being honest I probably would be further off had I tried! :)[/sub]

Maybe an easier way to evaluate the quality of what the Wolves may have given up for Payne is to list all the non-lottery 1st round draft picks that we have drafted in the history of the franchise...and keep in mind there are several GMs involved in these picks. Ready?

Gerald Glass
Paul Grant
Rasho Nesterovic
Ndudi Ebi
Wayne Ellington
Lazar Hayward
Andre Roberson
Tyus Jones

I'm quite optimistic about Jones, but I don't think I would trade any Payne for any other of those guys. I recognize the Wolves haven't historically had as good fortune with their draft picks as other franchises, but still, this seems like the most reasonable way of evaluating what we gave up for AP.

Edit: Sorry guys...need to add Gorgui Dieng to the list. I think he immediately becomes the best Wolves non-lottery first rounder ever.

[TAFKASP]

LOL, so Wolves are finally sitting pretty with two 1st overall pick plus a bunch of other young talents but you guys come here to b/tch about freaking Payne?! Haha LOSERS!!!

Yeah, we are probably spending too much time talking about this trade. Payne should be our 3rd string PF this year, and if the Wolves woeful playoff record continues, the asset we give up for him would be a second rounder in 2021...not a very consequential trade for either team. But I take a more optimistic viewpoint, and think that the Adreian Payne I watched in Vegas this summer will be one of several contributors that will help the Wolves get to the playoffs this year. And if so, it would be difficult to get to upset about not having a pick somewhere in the 20s next year...we'll be too busy analyzing our first round opponent!

Yeah, lost in these conversations is the fact that 99% of mid to late first round picks are at beat rotation players. Payne only needs to be solid contributor to justify the pick.

Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Eric Bledsoe, Serge Ibaka, Jeff Teague, Rudy Gobert, The Greek Freek, Kyle Lowry, Vucevic, Ty Lawson, Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo, Demarre Carroll, Ryan Anderson might disagree with your math.

Just a quick glance through your list and we have Rondo, drafted in 2006, so counting all drafts between then and 2014 we would have nine years, or 144 players drafted in the first round, 15th or lower, the 14 players you listed represents about 2.78% so I was off by 1.8% on an exaggeration!! If I can be that good on a guess imagine how good I could be if I ever tried!!!

[sub]Actually, If I'm being honest I probably would be further off had I tried! :)[/sub]

Maybe an easier way to evaluate the quality of what the Wolves may have given up for Payne is to list all the non-lottery 1st round draft picks that we have drafted in the history of the franchise...and keep in mind there are several GMs involved in these picks. Ready?

Gerald Glass
Paul Grant
Rasho Nesterovic
Ndudi Ebi
Wayne Ellington
Lazar Hayward
Andre Roberson
Tyus Jones

I'm quite optimistic about Jones, but I don't think I would trade any Payne for any other of those guys. I recognize the Wolves haven't historically had as good fortune with their draft picks as other franchises, but still, this seems like the most reasonable way of evaluating what we gave up for AP.

I don't think giving the Wolves a break based upon past incompetence is a good idea! Even more I don't think its necessary given that if we were to make a list of players picked 15th or lower since the Wolves inception, I would be shocked if the percentage that we would agree were quality starters would greater than 5%, tops IMO. Yes, some teams like the Spurs have been better at finding those needles in the haystack, but even they miss far more than they hit!

The only Wolves player that would qualify that I can think of would be Pek, and he really shouldn't count given he was one of those players taken with the first pick in the second as it was the only way he'd come over. You can bet 30 teams out of 30 take Pek with that pick.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Here's another way of evaluating what we may have given up for Payne. We all know it takes a few years to evaluate a draft pick, so I went back five years to evaluate the non-lottery first rounders from 2010:

Larry Sanders
Luke Babbitt
Kevin Seraphin
Eric Bledsoe
Avery Bradley
James Anderson
Craig Brackins
Elliot Williams
Trevor Booker
Damion James
Dominique Jones
Quincy Pondexter
Jordan Crawford
Greivis Vasquez
Daniel Orton
Lazar Hayward

There it is, guys. There's always a chance of getting an Eric Bledsoe, but always a much better chance of getting a Craig Brackins...only 4 these 16 guys have career scoring averages higher than what Payne scored as a struggling rookie. As I review this list from 5 years ago, I actually feel a little better about the job our GMs have done with our non-lottery picks...it's a crapshoot once you get past the lottery.

[Monster]

LOL, so Wolves are finally sitting pretty with two 1st overall pick plus a bunch of other young talents but you guys come here to b/tch about freaking Payne?! Haha LOSERS!!!

Yeah, we are probably spending too much time talking about this trade. Payne should be our 3rd string PF this year, and if the Wolves woeful playoff record continues, the asset we give up for him would be a second rounder in 2021...not a very consequential trade for either team. But I take a more optimistic viewpoint, and think that the Adreian Payne I watched in Vegas this summer will be one of several contributors that will help the Wolves get to the playoffs this year. And if so, it would be difficult to get to upset about not having a pick somewhere in the 20s next year...we'll be too busy analyzing our first round opponent!

Yeah, lost in these conversations is the fact that 99% of mid to late first round picks are at beat rotation players. Payne only needs to be solid contributor to justify the pick.

Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Eric Bledsoe, Serge Ibaka, Jeff Teague, Rudy Gobert, The Greek Freek, Kyle Lowry, Vucevic, Ty Lawson, Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo, Demarre Carroll, Ryan Anderson might disagree with your math.

Just a quick glance through your list and we have Rondo, drafted in 2006, so counting all drafts between then and 2014 we would have nine years, or 144 players drafted in the first round, 15th or lower, the 14 players you listed represents about 2.78% so I was off by 1.8% on an exaggeration!! If I can be that good on a guess imagine how good I could be if I ever tried!!!

[sub]Actually, If I'm being honest I probably would be further off had I tried! :)[/sub]

Maybe an easier way to evaluate the quality of what the Wolves may have given up for Payne is to list all the non-lottery 1st round draft picks that we have drafted in the history of the franchise...and keep in mind there are several GMs involved in these picks. Ready?

Gerald Glass
Paul Grant
Rasho Nesterovic
Ndudi Ebi
Wayne Ellington
Lazar Hayward
Andre Roberson
Tyus Jones

I'm quite optimistic about Jones, but I don't think I would trade any Payne for any other of those guys. I recognize the Wolves haven't historically had as good fortune with their draft picks as other franchises, but still, this seems like the most reasonable way of evaluating what we gave up for AP.

I don't think giving the Wolves a break based upon past incompetence is a good idea! Even more I don't think its necessary given that if we were to make a list of players picked 15th or lower since the Wolves inception, I would be shocked if the percentage that we would agree were quality starters would greater than 5%, tops IMO. Yes, some teams like the Spurs have been better at finding those needles in the haystack, but even they miss far more than they hit!

The only Wolves player that would qualify that I can think of would be Pek, and he really shouldn't count given he was one of those players taken with the first pick in the second as it was the only way he'd come over. You can bet 30 teams out of 30 take Pek with that pick.

Rasho was a very solid center for where he was picked. If you could get him as a sure thing it might be worth it. The rest of those guys (Tyus Jones we don't know yet) are not too exciting. Lol

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

LST, did you forget Dieng, he was a late first rounder and I think a very good pick, even if he isn't Rudy Gobert.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

LOL, so Wolves are finally sitting pretty with two 1st overall pick plus a bunch of other young talents but you guys come here to b/tch about freaking Payne?! Haha LOSERS!!!

Yeah, we are probably spending too much time talking about this trade. Payne should be our 3rd string PF this year, and if the Wolves woeful playoff record continues, the asset we give up for him would be a second rounder in 2021...not a very consequential trade for either team. But I take a more optimistic viewpoint, and think that the Adreian Payne I watched in Vegas this summer will be one of several contributors that will help the Wolves get to the playoffs this year. And if so, it would be difficult to get to upset about not having a pick somewhere in the 20s next year...we'll be too busy analyzing our first round opponent!

Yeah, lost in these conversations is the fact that 99% of mid to late first round picks are at beat rotation players. Payne only needs to be solid contributor to justify the pick.

Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Eric Bledsoe, Serge Ibaka, Jeff Teague, Rudy Gobert, The Greek Freek, Kyle Lowry, Vucevic, Ty Lawson, Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo, Demarre Carroll, Ryan Anderson might disagree with your math.

Just a quick glance through your list and we have Rondo, drafted in 2006, so counting all drafts between then and 2014 we would have nine years, or 144 players drafted in the first round, 15th or lower, the 14 players you listed represents about 2.78% so I was off by 1.8% on an exaggeration!! If I can be that good on a guess imagine how good I could be if I ever tried!!!

[sub]Actually, If I'm being honest I probably would be further off had I tried! :)[/sub]

Maybe an easier way to evaluate the quality of what the Wolves may have given up for Payne is to list all the non-lottery 1st round draft picks that we have drafted in the history of the franchise...and keep in mind there are several GMs involved in these picks. Ready?

Gerald Glass
Paul Grant
Rasho Nesterovic
Ndudi Ebi
Wayne Ellington
Lazar Hayward
Andre Roberson
Tyus Jones

I'm quite optimistic about Jones, but I don't think I would trade any Payne for any other of those guys. I recognize the Wolves haven't historically had as good fortune with their draft picks as other franchises, but still, this seems like the most reasonable way of evaluating what we gave up for AP.

I don't think giving the Wolves a break based upon past incompetence is a good idea! Even more I don't think its necessary given that if we were to make a list of players picked 15th or lower since the Wolves inception, I would be shocked if the percentage that we would agree were quality starters would greater than 5%, tops IMO. Yes, some teams like the Spurs have been better at finding those needles in the haystack, but even they miss far more than they hit!

The only Wolves player that would qualify that I can think of would be Pek, and he really shouldn't count given he was one of those players taken with the first pick in the second as it was the only way he'd come over. You can bet 30 teams out of 30 take Pek with that pick.

Rasho was a very solid center for where he was picked. If you could get him as a sure thing it might be worth it. The rest of those guys (Tyus Jones we don't know yet) are not too exciting. Lol

Yeah, I agree monster...I always kind of liked Rasho. But interestingly, his career PPG and RPG are exactly what Adreian Payne averaged in what most of us call a failed rookie season. I recognize that there's more to this comparison than just scoring and rebounding averages...AP just looked so out of control his rookie year. But still, it's interesting to me that his rookie production was equal to that of the career production of arguably the Wolves' best-ever non-lottery first rounder.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

LST, did you forget Dieng, he was a late first rounder and I think a very good pick, even if he isn't Rudy Gobert.

Yep, thx for the heads up...I'll edit.