Wolves v jazz GDT

[Lipoli390]

I want to see McDaniels be more involved in the offense. So far he seems to be content to defer to his teammates, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. But there is a good offensive player inside him that needs to get developed. He had a really nice baseline drive last night, and he has shown glimpses of a mid-range game too. But he spends way too much time in the weakside corner basically being omitted from the offensive sets. We want KAT and DLO getting there shots, but a little more distribution would be a good thing.

I agree, Cool. The more I watch McDaniels the more excited I become at what he can be. He has the makings of a two-way allstar, Some might call that hyperbole, but I'm convinced he's a special talent.

[Lipoli390]

This team is going to play their way out of any realistic chance at keeping that first round pick... I'm not sure I remember how I'm supposed to feel about that.

Well, I know that I don't feel good about it. I like watching the Wolves player better basketball and I get a positive vibe when we win. But I've been advocating the soft tank for weeks while also predicting that the Wolves would play themselves out of the bottom three. I actually think the Wolves will play there way out of the bottom four and finish with the 5th or 6th worst record.

[Lipoli390]

Lip- KAT's ability to defend the perimeter is another reason Evan Mobley would be my choice if we were fortunate enough to get the first pick. He's an elite college rim protector and, like KAT, is athletic enough to defend the perimeter. A front line of Mobley/KAT/Jaden would rank among the top shot blocking front lines in the league, without sacrificing anything on the offensive end. I have to admit your prediction that the Wolves would eventually move out of the bottom three positions in the standings is looking quite prescient right now, so our chances of keeping our pick may be less than the 40% we have been assuming. But I'm going to continue to dream about that front line.

Cool, I agree that the Wolves have to find a way to get Jaden more involved in the offense, especially if the starting line up includes two non scorers like Rubio and Okogie. I don't have a problem with Jaden taking a smaller offensive role when he's out there after Dlo replaces either Ricky or Josh in the first quarter, but we need him to assert himself more early in the opening minutes of the game.

FNG - No doubt that Mobley, on paper, would be a great fit for the Wolves. I just haven't been overly impressed by him in the games I've seen or even his highlights. But I haven't seen him enough to call myself informed. There are a number of respected basketball analysts who are high on Mobley as an NBA prospect. So you're not alone in your take on him. I'll just be thrilled if we keep our pick this year and I'll be perfectly happy with Mobley. This front office does appear to have a good eye for young talent. So if they pick Mobley, I'll feel good about it. Unfortunately, our pick will be going to Golden State.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I'm actually rooting against getting a pick this year. Let's just lose the pick and move on. Also, I get tired of season after season having to force-feed minutes to young prospects that are net negatives on the court for at least their rookie year and often a years afterwards. Does anyone think Evan Mobley would really help our defense as a rookie? No! We'd be even worse!

This team has plenty of young assets to either deal for a vet player or keep developing and growing within the current system.

Time to break the cycle of failure!

[FNG]

I'm actually rooting against getting a pick this year. Let's just lose the pick and move on. Also, I get tired of season after season having to force-feed minutes to young prospects that are net negatives on the court for at least their rookie year and often a years afterwards. Does anyone think Evan Mobley would really help our defense as a rookie? No! We'd be even worse!

This team has plenty of young assets to either deal for a vet player or keep developing and growing within the current system.

Time to break the cycle of failure!

No, keep the pick and add another young player! I've probably gotten the most enjoyment out of watching guys like Vando, Jaden and Ant this year. And as to your comment about young prospects being net negatives: the Wolves have 7 players with net positive on/off numbers (with KAT far ahead of the other 6) and three of them (Jaden, Ant and Vando) are rookies or near rookies. I agree that rookies are usually net negatives and there are some notable examples among heralded rookies this year, but that doesn't seem to be the case with our fighting Timberwolves.

Would Mobley make our defense better right away? Well, despite his excellent defense as a freshman at USC, I have to agree that we might actually be worse at first. But the primary reason is that he would be replacing Okogie in the starting lineup with Jaden sliding to SF, and while we would be much improved at rim protection, our overall defense would likely be worse. I've seen a lot of Mobley this year and have marveled at his pick and roll defense, rim protection and athleticism in defending the perimeter. But like many young players, he has a tendency to sell out on close outs and occasionally gets blown by (Jaden has been exceptional in my opinion in not doing this). So yes, perhaps a net negative at first...but potentially game changing as he matures on defense. My expectations for keeping the pick are low, but I'm going to be cheering for it on lottery night.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I'm actually rooting against getting a pick this year. Let's just lose the pick and move on. Also, I get tired of season after season having to force-feed minutes to young prospects that are net negatives on the court for at least their rookie year and often a years afterwards. Does anyone think Evan Mobley would really help our defense as a rookie? No! We'd be even worse!

This team has plenty of young assets to either deal for a vet player or keep developing and growing within the current system.

Time to break the cycle of failure!

No, keep the pick and add another young player! I've probably gotten the most enjoyment out of watching guys like Vando, Jaden and Ant this year. And as to your comment about young prospects being net negatives: the Wolves have 7 players with net positive on/off numbers (with KAT far ahead of the other 6) and three of them (Jaden, Ant and Vando) are rookies or near rookies. I agree that rookies are usually net negatives and there are some notable examples among heralded rookies this year, but that doesn't seem to be the case with our fighting Timberwolves.

Are you saying those guys are positive players? This is where the stats we pick-and-choose can significantly skew the narrative.

I know Edwards has improved significantly, but Edwards was SOOO bad earlier this season that he is still last on the league's 2nd worst team with a -0.7 VORP. He has a -3.4 DPM. He's even one of the select few rotation players in the entire NBA with a negative WS/48. (Only Culver + Edwards have negative WS on the Wolves)

Vanderbilt actually posts some average-ish advanced stats... but he is obviously pretty limited. Good energy guy off the bench in spots.

Like Edwards, McDaniels is another great test case for the statistics community. Obviously, we can all see elements that make us excited about him. He's got great feet defensively. He's been a godsend for this team at times. And we've seen numbers a few weeks ago that showed he was arguably the team's best defender at the time. But look at other stats and you'd think he sorta sucks. His VORP is negative (tied with Okogie).

At some point, the Wolves need to add more talent, whether this draft or next. And it will take awhile for those players to figure out how to play NBA basketball... even in a best-case scenario. But it needs to happen. I guess I prefer it to be sooner than later just so we can (HOPEFULLY) move on slightly faster.

________

But I am firmly on board on breaking the cycle of failure. Alas, I don't know the best way (sans getting lucky with a generational franchise-defining talent in the draft).

[Lipoli390]

I'm actually rooting against getting a pick this year. Let's just lose the pick and move on. Also, I get tired of season after season having to force-feed minutes to young prospects that are net negatives on the court for at least their rookie year and often a years afterwards. Does anyone think Evan Mobley would really help our defense as a rookie? No! We'd be even worse!

This team has plenty of young assets to either deal for a vet player or keep developing and growing within the current system.

Time to break the cycle of failure!

No, keep the pick and add another young player! I've probably gotten the most enjoyment out of watching guys like Vando, Jaden and Ant this year. And as to your comment about young prospects being net negatives: the Wolves have 7 players with net positive on/off numbers (with KAT far ahead of the other 6) and three of them (Jaden, Ant and Vando) are rookies or near rookies. I agree that rookies are usually net negatives and there are some notable examples among heralded rookies this year, but that doesn't seem to be the case with our fighting Timberwolves.

Are you saying those guys are positive players? This is where the stats we pick-and-choose can significantly skew the narrative.

I know Edwards has improved significantly, but Edwards was SOOO bad earlier this season that he is still last on the league's 2nd worst team with a -0.7 VORP. He has a -3.4 DPM. He's even one of the select few rotation players in the entire NBA with a negative WS/48. (Only Culver + Edwards have negative WS on the Wolves)

Vanderbilt actually posts some average-ish advanced stats... but he is obviously pretty limited. Good energy guy off the bench in spots.

Like Edwards, McDaniels is another great test case for the statistics community. Obviously, we can all see elements that make us excited about him. He's got great feet defensively. He's been a godsend for this team at times. And we've seen numbers a few weeks ago that showed he was arguably the team's best defender at the time. But look at other stats and you'd think he sorta sucks. His VORP is negative (tied with Okogie).

At some point, the Wolves need to add more talent, whether this draft or next. And it will take awhile for those players to figure out how to play NBA basketball... even in a best-case scenario. But it needs to happen. I guess I prefer it to be sooner than later just so we can (HOPEFULLY) move on slightly faster.

________

But I am firmly on board on breaking the cycle of failure. Alas, I don't know the best way (sans getting lucky with a generational franchise-defining talent in the draft).

You can never have enough talent and when you finish in the bottom 5 of the League you should assume you need to add more talent. The sooner we add that talent the better. While most players are net negatives as rookies, the really good ones generally become positive contributors in their second season or at least by their third. Two reasons I'd prefer to keep the pick this year and let Golden State have it next year:

1. The sooner we add talent the more opportunity that talent will have the chance to develop and contribute positively while KAT is here. KAT has three years left on his contract after this season, so a pick this year will be a second-year player in the second to last year of KAT's contract.

2. If the Wolves keep this year's pick it will be in the top 3, which will give us a much better chance of getting an elite talent than next year's draft when our pick will likely be much lower.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

The lottery has failed this franchise time and again for the most part. You absolutely can build a winning program without a bunch of top 5 picks on your roster. The beauty of building with later picks, unsigned free agents, and trades is that guys actually have to EARN their way into the rotation. So if they suck, we aren't stuck still having to play them 25 MPG.

The reality is that KAT's window with this franchise is closing fast. Anyone we draft in the top 3 this year is outside of his window frankly. By the time they are actually really good (if that even happens), KAT will be nearly 30 years old.

Edwards, McDaniels, Reid, Nowell, Vanderbilt, Bolmaro....all guys that are 21 or younger. Do we really need more of the same next season?

Now if we do keep our pick, I see it more as a trade chip. That's not a bad thing either. But the last thing we need to do is keep trotting out 19, 20, and 21-year olds year after year unless the goal is to once again rebuild from the studs on up. It's a surefire way to keep losing games.

[AbeVigodaLive]

The lottery has failed this franchise time and again for the most part. You absolutely can build a winning program without a bunch of top 5 picks on your roster. The beauty of building with later picks, unsigned free agents, and trades is that guys actually have to EARN their way into the rotation. So if they suck, we aren't stuck still having to play them 25 MPG.

The reality is that KAT's window with this franchise is closing fast. Anyone we draft in the top 3 this year is outside of his window frankly. By the time they are actually really good (if that even happens), KAT will be nearly 30 years old.

Edwards, McDaniels, Reid, Nowell, Vanderbilt, Bolmaro....all guys that are 21 or younger. Do we really need more of the same next season?

Now if we do keep our pick, I see it more as a trade chip. That's not a bad thing either. But the last thing we need to do is keep trotting out 19, 20, and 21-year olds year after year unless the goal is to once again rebuild from the studs on up. It's a surefire way to keep losing games.

I'm all in on using it as a trade chip.

But there's a rub with that, too. The team is already up against the cap. So it would have to be part of a larger deal with more money/players going out. (Not that I'm against that... the team sucks!) AND, it would be more of a short-term window sort of thing for fans. Contacts are getting shorter and shorter and shorter. Players are moving teams when possible more and more often. Outside of the draft pick route, it's become quite the transient league.

Because we've gone through the draft lottery so often, we've become used to seeing players get drafted and stick around awhile as we hope and wait and hope and wait.

[Lipoli390]

The lottery has failed this franchise time and again for the most part. You absolutely can build a winning program without a bunch of top 5 picks on your roster. The beauty of building with later picks, unsigned free agents, and trades is that guys actually have to EARN their way into the rotation. So if they suck, we aren't stuck still having to play them 25 MPG.

The reality is that KAT's window with this franchise is closing fast. Anyone we draft in the top 3 this year is outside of his window frankly. By the time they are actually really good (if that even happens), KAT will be nearly 30 years old.

Edwards, McDaniels, Reid, Nowell, Vanderbilt, Bolmaro....all guys that are 21 or younger. Do we really need more of the same next season?

Now if we do keep our pick, I see it more as a trade chip. That's not a bad thing either. But the last thing we need to do is keep trotting out 19, 20, and 21-year olds year after year unless the goal is to once again rebuild from the studs on up. It's a surefire way to keep losing games.

If you get an elite talent in the draft this year, he'll likely be contributing at a high level by his second or third season. KAT will be 27 years old in the second season of this year's draft pick. He'll be 28 years old and on the last year of his deal when this year's pick is in his third season. So I disagree that a pick this year would necessarily be outside KAT's window. In fact, this year is the last one when our pick's 2nd and 3rd seasons will overlap with KAT's contract and the front end of his prime.

I'd definitely be open to trading the pick, but as Abe mentioned, our salary situation doesn't lend itself to dealing a top 3 pick. When you trade a top 3 pick, you should expect to get a max player in return. It would be difficult to make that work given our payroll situation, although I could see a viable package involving Ricky and Beasley.

I think this team has the talent to make the playoffs next season and I expect that to happen now that we have what appears to be a quality head coach. The season after next will be the key. That will be KAT's second-to-last season and likely the one that determines whether he demands a trade. KAT and DLO will be in the heart of their prime at age 27 with more than a full season together. If Beasley is still here, he'll be just entering his prime at age 26. Okogie will be 25 years old in his 5th season. Ant and McDaniels will be in their 3rd seasons. Naz Reid and Nowell (if still here) will be in their 4th NBA seasons. That's a lot of talent that's young and still athletic but with substantial NBA experience. If we keep out pick this year, I don't think that pick will determine our fate two years from now. But I'd still love to have one of this year's top 3 draft prospects on this team in two years rather than a much lower pick next year who would be a rookie in what I consider the pivotal season for this franchise.