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Re: 8th seed is a Failure
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:45 pm
by kekgeek
lipoli390 wrote:CoolBreeze44 wrote:The Wolves will be favored against Denver. The season is a failure regardless of what happens in that game. Butler did what history says he would do - play great but miss an important chunk of the season. Yes, I'm going to say it, Wiggins had a terrible year given his talent. And Towns anchored one of the worst defenses in the league - again. At one time we had all the assets to build a true contender. Now they're used up and we are stuck in no mans land in the NBA. Good enough to miss out on high draft picks, and bad enough to never contend. Failure.
Cool -- You nailed it! I can't add or subtract from your post. It's right on!
2 years ago the Rockets were the 8 seed and were swept in the 1st round. Now they are the favorite to win the NBA title. The Warriors 5 years ago had no cap space and were a 47 win team. They traded all there bad contracts for AI. Then they went on to win 51 games the next year and lose in the 1st round. Then in Curry 6th year in the NBA they took the next step and won the title. After losing in the 1st round and they seemed to be stuck in NBA middle ground.
The wolves were in middle of the road defense when Crawford was not on the court. That is a fact. And we were the worst defense in the NBA by a large margin when Crawford was on the court.
We are still in the same possession we were last year. We go based on how Wiggins and Towns develop. Who knows Wiggins might never get there and that is a legit concern. But we have draft picks and next year we will have 5 or 6 players under 25 on the roster. Maybe more if MGH is retained.
I understand the frustration. I really do but the Wolves are either going to have the 6th or T5th best record in franchise history.
Re: 8th seed is a Failure
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:47 pm
by Lipoli390
longstrangetrip wrote:I'm neutral on the doper/cool debate on whether 5 more wins would have made this year a success in my opinion. Yes, 5 more would have clearly put us in the 3rd seed, and that would have made me happier than I am now. But for me it's less about the number of wins, and more about the style of play that puts me in the failure column. I simply found them unwatchable a lot of this year. The antiquated offense and defense, the continuing late-game collapses due to tired starters playing too many minutes, the annoying bellowing on the sidelines, and the inability of the coach to get most of the team to play as hard as Butler, Taj, KAT and maybe Tyus. All of these factors are maddening and made this a dissatisfying season for me.
I would have loved to see what a young guy like Tony Bennett or Eric Musselman could have done with this roster...I'm thinking 55 wins.
I agree with your, LST. I'm in the same place as you. The guys who sit near me at Target Center and see a lot of games live feel the same way. It's even worse watching it in person because you see the pathetic lack of off-ball movement and you get the full picture of Thibs micro-management, which visibly slows and distracts the players. The fact that we scored as much as we did this season underscores the tremendous offensive talent we have in this roster in Butler, KAT, Wiggins, Teague and Crawford. The Wolves lead the League in contested shots and, amazingly, make a lot of them because of the individual offensive iso talent on the roster. This team would be up with the Warriors, Rockets, Cavs and Pelicans in scoring with a better, more modern offensive system, including better spacing, more off-ball movement and no need to pause to listen for instructions barked by the head coach. And that's without adding better 3-point shooting, which Thibs the PBO failed to do.
Re: 8th seed is a Failure
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:52 pm
by kekgeek
lipoli390 wrote:longstrangetrip wrote:kekgeek1 wrote:WolvesFan21 wrote:I think the defensive atrociousness has to fall on Thibs at some point. We have players who can or should be able to play defense. Butler and Taj have both been good to great in the past. Wiggins and Towns have the physical ability to play defense. Then you have to also realize Thibs is the one who brought the players in/extended.
We can't change the players without taking a step back. Wiggins is going to be overpaid for what he has produced this season. KAT is a baller and exceptional talent on offense, obviously you have to build around him. But his defense has been lagging behind. Butler can and has played great defense so he's not "the problem."
You can't have a bottom 5 defense with payers who should perform better without having some kind of problem.
I expected the defense to be better. I think we all did.
When Andrew Wiggins is on the without Jamal Crawford what is 68% of possessions the wolves have a defensive rating of 106.0 what would put us at 15 in the NBA in defensive rating. When Jamal Crawford is with Andrew Wiggins what is 32% of the possessions the defensive rating balloons to 123.5 pts per 100 possessions what would be the worst team in the NBA by 13 pts per 100 possessions.
When KAT is on the court without Jamal Crawford what is 72% of possession the wolves have a def rating of 106.9 what would be 16th in the NBA. But when Jamal plays with KAT 28% of possessions the Wolves defense once again balloons to 117.1 once again would be the worst team in the NBA by 7 pts per possession.
When KAT and Wiggins are together in any lineup that does not have Crawford in it we have a def rating of 106.5 what would be the 15th rated team in the NBA but when you add Crawford into lineups that include KAT and Wiggins. The Wolves defensive sky rockets once again to 121.7. Almost 12 pts worse than the worst NBA team in the League and 15 pts worse in any other lineup those to play together without Crawford.
I think we all agree that our best two defenders are Taj and Jimmy Butler. The wolves Defensive rating when those 2 are on the court minus Jamal we have a def rating of 105.0 what would be the 11th best defense in the NBA. Now if we add crawford to those two the wolves defense is 112.9 once again the worst team in the NBA.
I know it is hard to blame one guy on the defensive struggles. But it doesn't matter the lineup we are a middle of the road defense when Crawford is not on the court but we are the worst team in the NBA in any lineup Crawford is on the court.
Now Towns and Wiggins have a ways to go defensively and they are not perfect but they are an average NBA defense in any other lineup that dosen't involve Crawford. Now if you want to blame Thibs for not finding another wing fine. But a huge part of the terrible defense goes on the shoulders of one player and that is Crawford
To paraphrase the late Denny Green, Jamal Crawford was what we thought he was. 17 seasons in the NBA were a large enough sample size to conclude that he was a terrible defender. I can't decide if I want to blame the POBO for signing him when better defensive options were available, or the coach for playing him almost 21 MPG.
Exactly! Then there's Jeff Teague. I actually like him and he's grown on me a bit. But he's not a good defender and is a low-volume 35.6 % three-point shooter. Signing his top 3-year $19 million year contract given this team's need for defense and three-point shooting belongs in the PBO mistake column.
We are in the 90th percentile in the NBA in offense when Jeff Teague is on the court. We are in the 72 percentile in pt differential when Jeff Teague is on the court (So above average). We are not as good defensively when he is on the court we are in the 27th percentile but when Crawford is off the court and Teague plays we are in the 47th percentil defensively and our defense with starters is in the 50th percentil so dead average NBA defense. So we are one of the best offensives in the NBA when Teague is on the court and dead average on defense when he is on the court minus Crawford (we are 89th percentile in linupes on offesne with Teague and without Crawford.)
Re: 8th seed is a Failure
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:54 pm
by Lipoli390
kekgeek1 wrote:lipoli390 wrote:CoolBreeze44 wrote:The Wolves will be favored against Denver. The season is a failure regardless of what happens in that game. Butler did what history says he would do - play great but miss an important chunk of the season. Yes, I'm going to say it, Wiggins had a terrible year given his talent. And Towns anchored one of the worst defenses in the league - again. At one time we had all the assets to build a true contender. Now they're used up and we are stuck in no mans land in the NBA. Good enough to miss out on high draft picks, and bad enough to never contend. Failure.
Cool -- You nailed it! I can't add or subtract from your post. It's right on!
2 years ago the Rockets were the 8 seed and were swept in the 1st round. Now they are the favorite to win the NBA title. The Warriors 5 years ago had no cap space and were a 47 win team. They traded all there bad contracts for AI. Then they went on to win 51 games the next year and lose in the 1st round. Then in Curry 6th year in the NBA they took the next step and won the title. After losing in the 1st round and they seemed to be stuck in NBA middle ground.
The wolves were in middle of the road defense when Crawford was not on the court. That is a fact. And we were the worst defense in the NBA by a large margin when Crawford was on the court.
We are still in the same possession we were last year. We go based on how Wiggins and Towns develop. Who knows Wiggins might never get there and that is a legit concern. But we have draft picks and next year we will have 5 or 6 players under 25 on the roster. Maybe more if MGH is retained.
I understand the frustration. I really do but the Wolves are either going to have the 6th or T5th best record in franchise history.
The Rockets have a different head coach this season than they had when they finished 8th two years go. Maybe the Wolves should follow suit and replace Thibs when this season is done. The Warriors were a very young team of draft picks -- analogous to what the Wolves were before Thibs traded for Butler and signed the likes of Taj Gibson, Jeff Teague and Jamaal Crawford. The Wolves are in an entirely different situation now compared to the Warriors back then. Butler will be 29, Teague 30, Taj 33 and Crawford 39 to start next season. We don't look like a franchise on the way Golden State looked back then.
Re: 8th seed is a Failure
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:06 pm
by crazy-canuck [enjin:18955461]
If you believe in the players, drop the coach.
If you believe in the coach, trade some of the players.
Anything other than that and we'll see the same again next year.
The rockets made waves because they got a coach that would make better use of their players and morey got the role players to support that vision.
Thibs may have been a good coach, but hasn't been good in building a team.
Re: 8th seed is a Failure
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:08 pm
by thedoper
So the failure is that it was an ugly way to get 16 more wins this year? I agree we could have got 20+ more, but these arguments are such a stretch. The 2nd most improved team should grant Thibs GM of the year in any other era of basketball. Just a little too much nitpicking here.
Re: 8th seed is a Failure
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:09 pm
by kekgeek
I have been doing a lot of stat digging today. Here is probably the most eye opening thing I found.
Wolves with Tyus Jones at PG without Jamal Crawford: We are a 98th percentile offense (118.6 per 100 possessions), 99th percentile defense (93.8 per 100 possessions), 99th percentile in pt differential (+24.8), 49th percentile in eFG% (51.8), 97th percentile in defensive eFG% (47.8)
Wolves with Tyus Jones at PG but Jamal on the court: We are a 79th percentile offense (111.8 per 100 possessions), 8th percentile in defense (114.6 per 100 possessions 21 pt differese on/off with Crawford) 36 percentile in pt differential (-2.8), 70th percentile in eFG% (52.3%) and 6th percentile in eFG% defense (55.8%)
Super eye opening statistics.
Re: 8th seed is a Failure
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:10 pm
by kekgeek
thedoper wrote:So the failure is that it was an ugly way to get 16 more wins this year? I agree we could have got 20+ more, but these arguments are such a stretch. The 2nd most improved team should grant Thibs GM of the year in any other era of basketball. Just a little too much nitpicking here.
Also 6th in the NBA with most 10+ pt wins
Re: 8th seed is a Failure
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:11 pm
by Lipoli390
kekgeek1 wrote:lipoli390 wrote:longstrangetrip wrote:kekgeek1 wrote:WolvesFan21 wrote:I think the defensive atrociousness has to fall on Thibs at some point. We have players who can or should be able to play defense. Butler and Taj have both been good to great in the past. Wiggins and Towns have the physical ability to play defense. Then you have to also realize Thibs is the one who brought the players in/extended.
We can't change the players without taking a step back. Wiggins is going to be overpaid for what he has produced this season. KAT is a baller and exceptional talent on offense, obviously you have to build around him. But his defense has been lagging behind. Butler can and has played great defense so he's not "the problem."
You can't have a bottom 5 defense with payers who should perform better without having some kind of problem.
I expected the defense to be better. I think we all did.
When Andrew Wiggins is on the without Jamal Crawford what is 68% of possessions the wolves have a defensive rating of 106.0 what would put us at 15 in the NBA in defensive rating. When Jamal Crawford is with Andrew Wiggins what is 32% of the possessions the defensive rating balloons to 123.5 pts per 100 possessions what would be the worst team in the NBA by 13 pts per 100 possessions.
When KAT is on the court without Jamal Crawford what is 72% of possession the wolves have a def rating of 106.9 what would be 16th in the NBA. But when Jamal plays with KAT 28% of possessions the Wolves defense once again balloons to 117.1 once again would be the worst team in the NBA by 7 pts per possession.
When KAT and Wiggins are together in any lineup that does not have Crawford in it we have a def rating of 106.5 what would be the 15th rated team in the NBA but when you add Crawford into lineups that include KAT and Wiggins. The Wolves defensive sky rockets once again to 121.7. Almost 12 pts worse than the worst NBA team in the League and 15 pts worse in any other lineup those to play together without Crawford.
I think we all agree that our best two defenders are Taj and Jimmy Butler. The wolves Defensive rating when those 2 are on the court minus Jamal we have a def rating of 105.0 what would be the 11th best defense in the NBA. Now if we add crawford to those two the wolves defense is 112.9 once again the worst team in the NBA.
I know it is hard to blame one guy on the defensive struggles. But it doesn't matter the lineup we are a middle of the road defense when Crawford is not on the court but we are the worst team in the NBA in any lineup Crawford is on the court.
Now Towns and Wiggins have a ways to go defensively and they are not perfect but they are an average NBA defense in any other lineup that dosen't involve Crawford. Now if you want to blame Thibs for not finding another wing fine. But a huge part of the terrible defense goes on the shoulders of one player and that is Crawford
To paraphrase the late Denny Green, Jamal Crawford was what we thought he was. 17 seasons in the NBA were a large enough sample size to conclude that he was a terrible defender. I can't decide if I want to blame the POBO for signing him when better defensive options were available, or the coach for playing him almost 21 MPG.
Exactly! Then there's Jeff Teague. I actually like him and he's grown on me a bit. But he's not a good defender and is a low-volume 35.6 % three-point shooter. Signing his top 3-year $19 million year contract given this team's need for defense and three-point shooting belongs in the PBO mistake column.
We are in the 90th percentile in the NBA in offense when Jeff Teague is on the court. We are in the 72 percentile in pt differential when Jeff Teague is on the court (So above average). We are not as good defensively when he is on the court we are in the 27th percentile but when Crawford is off the court and Teague plays we are in the 47th percentil defensively and our defense with starters is in the 50th percentil so dead average NBA defense. So we are one of the best offensives in the NBA when Teague is on the court and dead average on defense when he is on the court minus Crawford (we are 89th percentile in linupes on offesne with Teague and without Crawford.)
Interesting stats, Geek. But these stats have their limits on what they tell us. Based on these stats, Jamaal Crawford is singularly responsible for the Wolves finishing 8th or 9th instead of 3rd or 4th. As bad as Crawford has been defensively, that doesn't hold up. Was Crawford in his 17 minutes the main reason we lost at home to the Suns or was it Jeff Teague in his 30+ minutes going 1-12 from the field? Was Crawford responsible for our road loss to Atlanta or was it Butler shooting 5-19, and Wiggins shooting 5-16 with nothing from Gorgui off the bench? Otherwise, I guess Thibs the PBO really screwed up putting our bench together. Or maybe he screwed up in how used our bench. If it's all about Crawford, he's Thibs' guy. Thibs make him his one wing acquisition in the off season and Thibs has stubbornly made Crawford his go-to guy off the bench.
Re: 8th seed is a Failure
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:16 pm
by Big O [enjin:13874644]
Interesting discussion! Too lazy to look it up... is Crawford on a two year deal? Btw. GS didn't show up tonight... so much better to play them than Houston in first round...