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Re: Mixed Feelings
Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 2:25 am
by Shumway
SameOldNudityDrew wrote:Some good thoughts on this thread, thanks for getting that started Shumway.
There are some things I would have done differently this offseason, mainly driven by my thinking that we need to be ahead of the curve as the league evolves into an even more perimeter-oriented league with lot of switching on D:
[list]
[*] trying to get a long, versatile forward with range in the draft like Wilson or Bolden
[*] targeting a long 3 and D wing in free agency instead of Gibson
[/list]
But on the whole, I'm pretty happy, mostly because we added Butler. We finally made the step to get a star to go with Towns, and it just happens that he's one of my favorite players, he plays exactly like Wiggins needs to learn how to play, and he meshes perfectly with our coach. So I'm excited to see what this team can do!
The Rubio-Teague switch is a logical one, as much as I hate to see Rubio go. Teague's dribble penetration and outside shooting fit much more what we need and could be small improvements that help open up the offense in big ways. And while Rubio is a much better off the ball defender, I like Teague's ability to stay in front of smaller, quicker guards on the ball, which was a problem for Ricky. I also think this may weirdly help out our defense, even though overall, Rubio was a better defender.
On the hindsight issue, I'm more forgiving. We all like to think that if we were in charge, we'd make the right decisions, but there's so much luck and chance in this game I think we need to stay humble about second-guessing decisions here or there.
I DO think you can hold front offices accountable for systematic failure though. What Phil was doing in New York was inexcusable, alienating his players and fans alike and refusing to come to grips with reality. Or when a front office is delusional about when it's clear their team needs to rebuild, they need to be able to set pride aside, bite the bullet and do it. Atlanta has now lost two huge free agents and got nothing to show for it, and just look at the mess the Nets got themselves into a few years ago. Or on the flip side, waiting too long with young prospects and passing up opportunities to cash in those assets for a star. It looked until the Hayward signing last night that this might be happening in Boston, but it turns out they've been counting on this decision all along. I don't see any of these things happening with Thibs, so I can't fault him significantly for any systematic failure.
I DO think this offseason has made clear that Thibs doesn't necessarily share my priorities with more perimeter shooting and switchability on D. But he has his vision, one that clearly involves a hard-nosed, defensive-minded team, and he's assembled a roster that fits that with good veterans plus two rising stars. I disagree with his priorities and vision somewhat, but I can't really knock him for doing a pretty decent job building a team that will match the vision he's got. I'm looking forward to the season and ready to roll!
BINGO. Judging something based on the outcome will be flawed, but judging on whether the outcome was based on systematic failure is appropriate.
An open 3 point shot that misses can still be a good shot. A contested long 2 that goes in can still be a poor shot.
I think Flip demonstrated a great ability at talent evaluation and this demonstrates that his processes and systems were very strong - even if the track record was not perfect. I also think Thibs has gotten off to a good start in his POBO role. Patience last year when the FA market was (in hindsight) clearly overvalued. Then the ability to bring in another star in Butler is a building body of evidence that he's on the right track in my eyes despite not agreeing with all his moves (Lip, I'm with you on hoping Swaggy P doesn't sign).
Re: Mixed Feelings
Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 2:51 am
by Lipoli390
Shumway wrote:SameOldNudityDrew wrote:Some good thoughts on this thread, thanks for getting that started Shumway.
There are some things I would have done differently this offseason, mainly driven by my thinking that we need to be ahead of the curve as the league evolves into an even more perimeter-oriented league with lot of switching on D:
[list]
[*] trying to get a long, versatile forward with range in the draft like Wilson or Bolden
[*] targeting a long 3 and D wing in free agency instead of Gibson
[/list]
But on the whole, I'm pretty happy, mostly because we added Butler. We finally made the step to get a star to go with Towns, and it just happens that he's one of my favorite players, he plays exactly like Wiggins needs to learn how to play, and he meshes perfectly with our coach. So I'm excited to see what this team can do!
The Rubio-Teague switch is a logical one, as much as I hate to see Rubio go. Teague's dribble penetration and outside shooting fit much more what we need and could be small improvements that help open up the offense in big ways. And while Rubio is a much better off the ball defender, I like Teague's ability to stay in front of smaller, quicker guards on the ball, which was a problem for Ricky. I also think this may weirdly help out our defense, even though overall, Rubio was a better defender.
On the hindsight issue, I'm more forgiving. We all like to think that if we were in charge, we'd make the right decisions, but there's so much luck and chance in this game I think we need to stay humble about second-guessing decisions here or there.
I DO think you can hold front offices accountable for systematic failure though. What Phil was doing in New York was inexcusable, alienating his players and fans alike and refusing to come to grips with reality. Or when a front office is delusional about when it's clear their team needs to rebuild, they need to be able to set pride aside, bite the bullet and do it. Atlanta has now lost two huge free agents and got nothing to show for it, and just look at the mess the Nets got themselves into a few years ago. Or on the flip side, waiting too long with young prospects and passing up opportunities to cash in those assets for a star. It looked until the Hayward signing last night that this might be happening in Boston, but it turns out they've been counting on this decision all along. I don't see any of these things happening with Thibs, so I can't fault him significantly for any systematic failure.
I DO think this offseason has made clear that Thibs doesn't necessarily share my priorities with more perimeter shooting and switchability on D. But he has his vision, one that clearly involves a hard-nosed, defensive-minded team, and he's assembled a roster that fits that with good veterans plus two rising stars. I disagree with his priorities and vision somewhat, but I can't really knock him for doing a pretty decent job building a team that will match the vision he's got. I'm looking forward to the season and ready to roll!
BINGO. Judging something based on the outcome will be flawed, but judging on whether the outcome was based on systematic failure is appropriate.
An open 3 point shot that misses can still be a good shot. A contested long 2 that goes in can still be a poor shot.
I think Flip demonstrated a great ability at talent evaluation and this demonstrates that his processes and systems were very strong - even if the track record was not perfect. I also think Thibs has gotten off to a good start in his POBO role. Patience last year when the FA market was (in hindsight) clearly overvalued. Then the ability to bring in another star in Butler is a building body of evidence that he's on the right track in my eyes despite not agreeing with all his moves (Lip, I'm with you on hoping Swaggy P doesn't sign).
I generally agree on the systemic failure test. I was just pointing out how one or two misses in decision-making can make the difference between success and failure. Whether Flip's tenure was a systemic failure is a question for another thread down the road. I don't think it was, but I'd want to give that more thought. And it's definitely too early to judge Thibs' regime by that standard. But I do think Thibs' decision to pay $14 million per year for Taj was a dumb move and it seems to reflect a lack of patience and a lack of perspective when it comes to certain players he previously coached.
Patience is what Flip preached and practiced consistently throughout his entire tenure. That's how he got Wiggins. Thibs seemed to lose his patience when presented with the opportunity to sign Taj. He loves Taj and it seems he couldn't bear the thought of letting him slip away. How nice it would be to have another $14 million in cap space now to take advantage of Boston's talent dump as they make room for Hayward's salary. Offering the RE to Swaggy P strikes me as an example of Thibs desperately trying to add 3-point shooting after boxing himself in with the Taj signing. One bad decision often leads to another and that's what I see happening here. Call it systemic or not, I see some troubling signs in the short tenure of a guy with absolutely no front office experience who now heads the Wolves front office.
Re: Mixed Feelings
Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 8:09 am
by Monster
So let's say we stood pat after the Butler move. We would have around 20 million in cap space. Let's say we signed Patterson for 3 years 21 million to get him here. Now we have 13-14 million left. We could sign CJ Miles and then we would likely have at most 3 million left. Or we could wait things out and try and get other values either in cheaper deals and in trades. The possible trade market with all the player movement is the one that may have brought a better player here but I'm not certain about that either we need to see it play out.
Unless some player becomes available that we think would have come here that was a legit above average NBA starter or even near all star level player...our cap space wasn't going to get us super high level players. If you are all frustrated because we can't get CJ Miles...um the guy is a decent starter at best. The degree of separation between some of the guys we could have signed is not always a huge gap.
Personally I think Teague is going to be an upgrade from Rubio and we got a 1st round pick out of the deal. I'd like to keep that pick but let's say they do move it with Aldrich to get space for a player like CJ miles. If Thibs had moved Rubio and Aldrich to Utah for over 20 million in cap space people that would have looked pretty good right? Let's see this process through and see what the roster looks like.
A couple things to consider.
People want this team to be a place where we can get FA on the cheap. This roster now is more likely to attract guys than it would a few days ago. Aubrey we don't get the complete effects this year but next offseason if we take a reasonable step forward guys could come here much more so. It's more likely to be happening that if we had stayed young and just played things out.
People are worried about the youth of the team and how we have lost that aspect trading and letting go of guys. I think with the vision and players they have brought in they have a situation that will be good for developing guys like we haven't seen much of in the past. We could finally get a undrafted free agent or failed 2nd rounder or whatever from another team o be worthwhile. They can look for a couple guys they think have talent and may really fit what they are trying to do and try and coach them up. I'm irrationally intruiged by Deonte Burton but there are players out there with talent can they find and develop one of these guys to be part of this squad and be even the next Anthony Tolliver type? That's a big key in my view.
Re: Mixed Feelings
Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 8:46 am
by AbeVigodaLive
The Wolves have gone 13 years without a playoff appearance. 12 years without a .500 record. Think of it this way...
So you're telling me the Wolves added players that are expected to turn a 31-win team into a playoff team... WITHOUT giving up cornerstone players Wiggins + Towns... while ADDING a 1st round draft pick + without adding anybody over the age of 30 to a long-term deal...
And we're ripping them for a "win now" approach?
Ok. Fair enough.
Re: Mixed Feelings
Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 8:52 am
by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
AbeVigodaLive wrote:The Wolves have gone 13 years without a playoff appearance. 12 years without a .500 record. Think of it this way...
So you're telling me the Wolves added players that are expected to turn a 31-win team into a playoff team... WITHOUT giving up cornerstone players Wiggins + Towns... while ADDING a 1st round draft pick + without adding anybody over the age of 30 to a long-term deal...
And we're ripping them for a "win now" approach?
Ok. Fair enough.
Yeah, the Butler deal was so good that almost anything that Thibs did afterward is relatively meangingless. But that doesn't mean we can't criticize him for the Rubio and Gibson deals...both very bad in my opinion.
But overall we have to look at this offseason as a huge success. I believe Vegas has the Wolves as the 4th shortest odds in the West to win the Championship and over 50 wins...can you believe that???? The excitement is back in Target Center...that's for sure!
Re: Mixed Feelings
Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 8:52 am
by Phenom
AbeVigodaLive wrote:The Wolves have gone 13 years without a playoff appearance. 12 years without a .500 record. Think of it this way...
So you're telling me the Wolves added players that are expected to turn a 31-win team into a playoff team... WITHOUT giving up cornerstone players Wiggins + Towns... while ADDING a 1st round draft pick + without adding anybody over the age of 30 to a long-term deal...
And we're ripping them for a "win now" approach?
Ok. Fair enough.
We became the lovable losers. It's hard to let go of that.
Re: Mixed Feelings
Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:44 am
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
Abe, No doubt the Butler deal was a huge win and Thibs deserves all the credit in the world for pulling it off. The bonus is if LaVine/Dunn/Markkanen blow up, they are doing it for an Eastern Conference team instead of a team in the West. The other two moves are sort of "meh" in my opinion.
I believe we paid fair market value for Teague, but we swapped out a PG that we had on a real bargain of a contract. That was $5M extra cap space allocated to a position that was already manned by a legit starting PG.
Taj is a classic overpay based on what guys like Amir Johnson, Zach Randolph, and Patrick Patterson got. Thibs is paying a premium because he believes Taj will help Butler transform the team defensively, something Thibs was unable to do as head coach last year. If we vault into a top 15 defensive team, I'll revise my view of this signing, because his production/efficiency simply doesn't justify the contract.
Re: Mixed Feelings
Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:46 am
by AbeVigodaLive
longstrangetrip wrote:AbeVigodaLive wrote:The Wolves have gone 13 years without a playoff appearance. 12 years without a .500 record. Think of it this way...
So you're telling me the Wolves added players that are expected to turn a 31-win team into a playoff team... WITHOUT giving up cornerstone players Wiggins + Towns... while ADDING a 1st round draft pick + without adding anybody over the age of 30 to a long-term deal...
And we're ripping them for a "win now" approach?
Ok. Fair enough.
Yeah, the Butler deal was so good that almost anything that Thibs did afterward is relatively meangingless. But that doesn't mean we can't criticize him for the Rubio and Gibson deals...both very bad in my opinion.
But overall we have to look at this offseason as a huge success. I believe Vegas has the Wolves as the 4th shortest odds in the West to win the Championship and over 50 wins...can you believe that???? The excitement is back in Target Center...that's for sure!
While I'm not a fan of the Gibson deal, it's only for two seasons.
I think that's enough time for Thibs to realize he'll need to embrace a different type of PF... and style. I hope.
As noted, I have mixed feelings about the Rubio move. It was probably best for Rubio/Wolves to part ways, but I genuinely dug the guy even with this obvious flaws.
Re: Mixed Feelings
Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:10 am
by bleedspeed
Here is my take.
Love the Butler trade. Still not sure if I would have rather seen Wiggins instead of LaVIne in it. I think this will be the year we will figure out what Wiggins is made of.
Rubio Trade - Not a fan of it. I like Teague, but he doesn't move the needle. Only thing he brings to me is more of a shake up in culture.
Teague signing - I thought we Dieng was the weak link on this team for starting unit. So I thought we should have focused on upgrading PF with our cap space.
Gibson Signing - He was plan B or C. Not sure who we were bidding against so I think we overpaid. He will fit in nicely with Towns and Dieng adding grit. I like that it is only a 2 year contract. Why not go after a guy like Kelly Olynyk?
Someone wrote it best. Decisions based on fixing mistakes usually don't turn out. I think the trading of Rubio was the mistake this offseason.
Re: Mixed Feelings
Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:13 am
by AbeVigodaLive
Could Olynyk be one of those semi-decent free agents that get paid less than we might have thought?
I believe the Wolves still have to make additional moves (see Cole Aldrich) to open up much space...