khans2k5 wrote:30 something wins this year. Around .500 the next with a possible playoff push. Playoff team in year 4 of Lavine/Wiggins and year 3 of Towns. Towns isn't enough to completely transform the defense as a rookie.
Agreed. At 19/20 years old there will be mental lapses and there will be times where he won't be strong enough down low. Same with Okafor or pretty much any 19/20 year old rookie. 30 wins is probably more realistic than my goal of being .500.
This is how I see the most ideal situation. The philosophy behind the starting lineup is Wiggins and Pek are the scoring punch with Muhammad getting all the cleanup scoring. He appears to take what he gets when he starts as opposed to forcing his shot when he comes off the bench. This starting lineup would allow Towns to adjust to the game without having to force any offense through him.
Subbing in Dieng and LaVine (shifting Wiggins into the SF slot) keeps two scorers on the floor and Dieng filling Muhammads cleanup roll. Garnett and the backup PG come in as the game dictates.
I trade Martin, Bennett, and Neal along with both 2nd rounder's and our Euro stash for the best vet backup PG we can get and any future draft picks.
BizarroJerry wrote:ZigZag, I think this team need to take 2 huge steps in the next 2 seasons. Maybe not making the playoffs next year, but should be close, then the following year be a playoff series winner and top 5 team in the West. We've had more 1st round picks than any team the last 5 or so years, this incompetent franchise needs a huge leap to keep its fans. It worked for the Wizards, it should work for us.
Maybe we should do what the WIz did then. Fire Flip!
khans2k5 wrote:30 something wins this year. Around .500 the next with a possible playoff push. Playoff team in year 4 of Lavine/Wiggins and year 3 of Towns. Towns isn't enough to completely transform the defense as a rookie.
I'm not counting on Towns to transform the defense, and I don't think it is necessary...if you watched any of the games where both KG and Rubio played, our defense was pretty good last year when we were healthy (but unbelievably terrible when we weren't). Pek, KG, Wiggins and Rubio is a good defensive starting 4, and evem Martin didn't hurt our defense too badly when he cared on defense. I see Towns being a defensive anchor off the bench though, and that will be helpful in getting this team to the playoffs.
khans2k5 wrote:30 something wins this year. Around .500 the next with a possible playoff push. Playoff team in year 4 of Lavine/Wiggins and year 3 of Towns. Towns isn't enough to completely transform the defense as a rookie.
I'm not counting on Towns to transform the defense, and I don't think it is necessary...if you watched any of the games where both KG and Rubio played, our defense was pretty good last year when we were healthy (but unbelievably terrible when we weren't). Pek, KG, Wiggins and Rubio is a good defensive starting 4, and evem Martin didn't hurt our defense too badly when he cared on defense. I see Towns being a defensive anchor off the bench though, and that will be helpful in getting this team to the playoffs.
We aren't in the East. You can't go from worst in the league to a playoff team in the West by only adding a top pick. You have to win 50+ games to make the playoffs in the West. A healthy Ricky, KG and Towns aren't worth 34+ wins. I think it's delusional to think this team is a playoff contender next year same as it was to think we were a playoff contender going into this season. This roster just isn't good enough yet.
khans2k5 wrote:30 something wins this year. Around .500 the next with a possible playoff push. Playoff team in year 4 of Lavine/Wiggins and year 3 of Towns. Towns isn't enough to completely transform the defense as a rookie.
I'm not counting on Towns to transform the defense, and I don't think it is necessary...if you watched any of the games where both KG and Rubio played, our defense was pretty good last year when we were healthy (but unbelievably terrible when we weren't). Pek, KG, Wiggins and Rubio is a good defensive starting 4, and evem Martin didn't hurt our defense too badly when he cared on defense. I see Towns being a defensive anchor off the bench though, and that will be helpful in getting this team to the playoffs.
We aren't in the East. You can't go from worst in the league to a playoff team in the West by only adding a top pick. You have to win 50+ games to make the playoffs in the West. A healthy Ricky, KG and Towns aren't worth 34+ wins. I think it's delusional to think this team is a playoff contender next year same as it was to think we were a playoff contender going into this season. This roster just isn't good enough yet.
Several things wrong with your argument Khans. First is that Pels made the playoffs with 45 wins this season. The 50 win plateau was something that may not be duplicated. There are also several teams like Portland and Memphis that could sustain significant losses in the off season. There is just no way to know how things will shake out.
Another problem is that the wolves tanked their way to the current record, so we don't know how competitive they could have been. I think talent wise they were a 35 win team last season, but I also don't see them reaching that if they can't be honest and realize that they are likely to continue to see Pek and others on the pine due to chronic issues. The #1 pick should give them a significant boost both talent wise and hopefully another healthy body so we aren't starting Hamilton. I think you are underestimating the difference that alone could make.
I think our biggest obstacle is coaching or lack thereof. I don't think we have any sort of defensive identity, and like others, believe that Flip's offense should go the way of the dinosaurs. Look at the change Phoenix made two years ago with considerably less talent.
khans2k5 wrote:30 something wins this year. Around .500 the next with a possible playoff push. Playoff team in year 4 of Lavine/Wiggins and year 3 of Towns. Towns isn't enough to completely transform the defense as a rookie.
I'm not counting on Towns to transform the defense, and I don't think it is necessary...if you watched any of the games where both KG and Rubio played, our defense was pretty good last year when we were healthy (but unbelievably terrible when we weren't). Pek, KG, Wiggins and Rubio is a good defensive starting 4, and evem Martin didn't hurt our defense too badly when he cared on defense. I see Towns being a defensive anchor off the bench though, and that will be helpful in getting this team to the playoffs.
We aren't in the East. You can't go from worst in the league to a playoff team in the West by only adding a top pick. You have to win 50+ games to make the playoffs in the West. A healthy Ricky, KG and Towns aren't worth 34+ wins. I think it's delusional to think this team is a playoff contender next year same as it was to think we were a playoff contender going into this season. This roster just isn't good enough yet.
Several things wrong with your argument Khans. First is that Pels made the playoffs with 45 wins this season. The 50 win plateau was something that may not be duplicated. There are also several teams like Portland and Memphis that could sustain significant losses in the off season. There is just no way to know how things will shake out.
Another problem is that the wolves tanked their way to the current record, so we don't know how competitive they could have been. I think talent wise they were a 35 win team last season, but I also don't see them reaching that if they can't be honest and realize that they are likely to continue to see Pek and others on the pine due to chronic issues. The #1 pick should give them a significant boost both talent wise and hopefully another healthy body so we aren't starting Hamilton. I think you are underestimating the difference that alone could make.
I think our biggest obstacle is coaching or lack thereof. I don't think we have any sort of defensive identity, and like others, believe that Flip's offense should go the way of the dinosaurs. Look at the change Phoenix made two years ago with considerably less talent.
A healthy OKC team normally wins 50, puts NO out of the playoffs leaving the 7 seed Dallas who won 50 games as the cutoff. So 50 was the right number this year before Durant went down. Besides that NO is getting better with a new coach who has a high chance of being better than Monty with possibly the best player in the game. They might be a 50 win team next year. So while things could happen in Memphis and Portland that still likely leaves 7 teams around the 50 win range. Basically you have to be better than .500 to even have a chance and we can barely hang around that number even when healthy. If things don't change in Portland and Memphis that leaves 9 teams fighting for 50 wins and people think we're going to be fighting for a playoff spot?
Rookies don't add significant value to winning. They just don't, no matter how they fit around the existing roster. If you thought we were a 35 win team last year that's about where we'll be with a 20 year old Towns. He's not going to add 5< wins as a 20 year old. There will be struggles and there will be things he's just not doing at an NBA level yet. Everyone has growing pains. Towns is no exception.
khans2k5 wrote:30 something wins this year. Around .500 the next with a possible playoff push. Playoff team in year 4 of Lavine/Wiggins and year 3 of Towns. Towns isn't enough to completely transform the defense as a rookie.
I'm not counting on Towns to transform the defense, and I don't think it is necessary...if you watched any of the games where both KG and Rubio played, our defense was pretty good last year when we were healthy (but unbelievably terrible when we weren't). Pek, KG, Wiggins and Rubio is a good defensive starting 4, and evem Martin didn't hurt our defense too badly when he cared on defense. I see Towns being a defensive anchor off the bench though, and that will be helpful in getting this team to the playoffs.
We aren't in the East. You can't go from worst in the league to a playoff team in the West by only adding a top pick. You have to win 50+ games to make the playoffs in the West. A healthy Ricky, KG and Towns aren't worth 34+ wins. I think it's delusional to think this team is a playoff contender next year same as it was to think we were a playoff contender going into this season. This roster just isn't good enough yet.
Several things wrong with your argument Khans. First is that Pels made the playoffs with 45 wins this season. The 50 win plateau was something that may not be duplicated. There are also several teams like Portland and Memphis that could sustain significant losses in the off season. There is just no way to know how things will shake out.
Another problem is that the wolves tanked their way to the current record, so we don't know how competitive they could have been. I think talent wise they were a 35 win team last season, but I also don't see them reaching that if they can't be honest and realize that they are likely to continue to see Pek and others on the pine due to chronic issues. The #1 pick should give them a significant boost both talent wise and hopefully another healthy body so we aren't starting Hamilton. I think you are underestimating the difference that alone could make.
I think our biggest obstacle is coaching or lack thereof. I don't think we have any sort of defensive identity, and like others, believe that Flip's offense should go the way of the dinosaurs. Look at the change Phoenix made two years ago with considerably less talent.
A healthy OKC team normally wins 50, puts NO out of the playoffs leaving the 7 seed Dallas who won 50 games as the cutoff. So 50 was the right number this year before Durant went down. Besides that NO is getting better with a new coach who has a high chance of being better than Monty with possibly the best player in the game. They might be a 50 win team next year. So while things could happen in Memphis and Portland that still likely leaves 7 teams around the 50 win range. Basically you have to be better than .500 to even have a chance and we can barely hang around that number even when healthy. If things don't change in Portland and Memphis that leaves 9 teams fighting for 50 wins and people think we're going to be fighting for a playoff spot?
Rookies don't add significant value to winning. They just don't, no matter how they fit around the existing roster. If you thought we were a 35 win team last year that's about where we'll be with a 20 year old Towns. He's not going to add 5< wins as a 20 year old. There will be struggles and there will be things he's just not doing at an NBA level yet. Everyone has growing pains. Towns is no exception.
Rookies do add significant value when they are taking the place of a Hamilton type guy. I think an Okafor/Towns type of guy can make a huge difference in the wolves healthy roster from last season. Don't you expect improvement from our younger guys?
What makes you so sure that the Pels coaching situation improves? It could just as easily get worse. If Portland and Memphis stay the same, that likely means teams like SA and Dal will get worse since they are two of the teams that need in infusion of talent to compensate for age.
Durant may be traded next season, he might not be the same player. He has a serious problem with his foot. He is also in the last year of his deal. If OKC does go back up in wins next season, doesn't some other team have to lose those games?
khans2k5 wrote:30 something wins this year. Around .500 the next with a possible playoff push. Playoff team in year 4 of Lavine/Wiggins and year 3 of Towns. Towns isn't enough to completely transform the defense as a rookie.
I'm not counting on Towns to transform the defense, and I don't think it is necessary...if you watched any of the games where both KG and Rubio played, our defense was pretty good last year when we were healthy (but unbelievably terrible when we weren't). Pek, KG, Wiggins and Rubio is a good defensive starting 4, and evem Martin didn't hurt our defense too badly when he cared on defense. I see Towns being a defensive anchor off the bench though, and that will be helpful in getting this team to the playoffs.
We aren't in the East. You can't go from worst in the league to a playoff team in the West by only adding a top pick. You have to win 50+ games to make the playoffs in the West. A healthy Ricky, KG and Towns aren't worth 34+ wins. I think it's delusional to think this team is a playoff contender next year same as it was to think we were a playoff contender going into this season. This roster just isn't good enough yet.
Several things wrong with your argument Khans. First is that Pels made the playoffs with 45 wins this season. The 50 win plateau was something that may not be duplicated. There are also several teams like Portland and Memphis that could sustain significant losses in the off season. There is just no way to know how things will shake out.
Another problem is that the wolves tanked their way to the current record, so we don't know how competitive they could have been. I think talent wise they were a 35 win team last season, but I also don't see them reaching that if they can't be honest and realize that they are likely to continue to see Pek and others on the pine due to chronic issues. The #1 pick should give them a significant boost both talent wise and hopefully another healthy body so we aren't starting Hamilton. I think you are underestimating the difference that alone could make.
I think our biggest obstacle is coaching or lack thereof. I don't think we have any sort of defensive identity, and like others, believe that Flip's offense should go the way of the dinosaurs. Look at the change Phoenix made two years ago with considerably less talent.
A healthy OKC team normally wins 50, puts NO out of the playoffs leaving the 7 seed Dallas who won 50 games as the cutoff. So 50 was the right number this year before Durant went down. Besides that NO is getting better with a new coach who has a high chance of being better than Monty with possibly the best player in the game. They might be a 50 win team next year. So while things could happen in Memphis and Portland that still likely leaves 7 teams around the 50 win range. Basically you have to be better than .500 to even have a chance and we can barely hang around that number even when healthy. If things don't change in Portland and Memphis that leaves 9 teams fighting for 50 wins and people think we're going to be fighting for a playoff spot?
Rookies don't add significant value to winning. They just don't, no matter how they fit around the existing roster. If you thought we were a 35 win team last year that's about where we'll be with a 20 year old Towns. He's not going to add 5< wins as a 20 year old. There will be struggles and there will be things he's just not doing at an NBA level yet. Everyone has growing pains. Towns is no exception.
Rookies do add significant value when they are taking the place of a Hamilton type guy. I think an Okafor/Towns type of guy can make a huge difference in the wolves healthy roster from last season. Don't you expect improvement from our younger guys?
What makes you so sure that the Pels coaching situation improves? It could just as easily get worse. If Portland and Memphis stay the same, that likely means teams like SA and Dal will get worse since they are two of the teams that need in infusion of talent to compensate for age.
Durant may be traded next season, he might not be the same player. He has a serious problem with his foot. He is also in the last year of his deal. If OKC does go back up in wins next season, doesn't some other team have to lose those games?
They aren't replacing Hamilton though. The healthy rotation last year was Pek/Thad with Dieng/AB. Then it changed to Pek/KG with Dieng/AP. You're likely replacing Dieng's spot so it looks like Towns/KG with Pek/Dieng and one of AB/AP. As you can see Towns isn't replacing Hamilton. He's just limiting the time guys like Dieng and AP see on the court and while they weren't great last year, Towns isn't going to be an all-star next year either. You need consistency to win 40+ games and rookies and injury riddled players aren't consistent enough to win that much. Everyone in the West is getting better or standing pat so I find it hard to believe we will be the team to break through next year when we are one of the youngest and most injury riddled of the bunch. That's just not realistic to me. Your playoff arguments require literally everything to go right for us (teams losing top players to the East, rapid development of Wiggins and Lavine and Towns to be a really good player from day 1). That's why I don't put much faith in it to become true. Too much has to go perfect for us for it to become a likely outcome.
I don't disagree with Kahn's take that rookies generally don't help a team improve that much, but I also see sjm's point that Towns or Okafor will be a significant upgrade over some of the trash we were forced to throw out at center last year. But what is indisputable is that 2nd and 3rd year players generally take a quantum leap forward, and the Wolves will be looking for big improvement and contribution from all of them...Wiggins, Lavine, Muhammad, Dieng, Bennett and Payne. Normal progression from those five players plus a year without absurd injury problems easily has the Wolves in the playoff hunt. The other factor that could propel them would be a coaching change, but that is not likely to happen.
