Minnesota Sports Forum

WildWolf2813 wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 12:15 am

Wolvesfan21 wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 10:25 pm

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 10:03 pm

Well, that's definitely the Miami formula. I do think they eventually run out of horsepower, but it probably won't be until the next round.

I don't disagree that one strategy for the Wolves would be to lean into our defense. That means not trading Gobert, signing NAW, and letting Nowell walk this offseason. But if we were to trade KAT for another more defensive-oriented player + picks, then I believe the law of diminishing marginal utility comes into play: Each incremental defensive-oriented player we add to the team adds less of a benefit if we're already really good on that end.

At some point you are right that a small increase of one player on defense versus another can make little difference. I think though going from say KAT to an above avg defender could replace KAT all together. I mean the Wolves played pretty fine without him for 50 games or whatever. I just don't think KAT makes that much difference to overall wins and losses. What he gives on offense he mostly gives up on defense with high fouling and just bad defense in general.

I think if you concentrate on going defense though, like I said you can't really have weak spots. Because teams can and do attack it. They have gone at DLO, Steph Curry (who did improve for sure over the years), KAT and other one way guys. It's smart to make them tired and get the in foul trouble (KAT). And it's not like KAT has proven to be a winning player in the playoffs either. His numbers drop in the playoffs while real superstars get better. He has shrunk.

The problem with this identity is that if you try to turn every game into a rock fight, you have zero answers for teams that either shoot really well or shoot outside in high volume. Guys who are above average defensively and offensively are hard to find. We're gonna pay McDaniels $100-$125 mil and we don't even know if the offense will ever be consistent enough to buoy his defense.

McDaniels is much better then above avg. He is near elite on defense. If he could rebound well he would be elite.

The thing is too, the Wolves were 27th in rebounding last year. 48.5% of total rebounds they get. They could improve defensively if the team as a whole just gets another couple boards a game. NAZ and McDaniels are the two primary ones who are far below avg at their positions. KAT was 56th in boards per 36 himself. There are only 60 starting PF's and Centers so he is below avg too. He probably played quite a few minutes with Rudy though, so he is getting a ton of the easy ones. Certainly DLO didn't help the cause either.

The other thing about playing better defense is you can get out and run in transition. Get easy buckets on offense. Play better defense and feed the offense. Ant is a now a great transitional guy who can play downhill and is improving his passing. We need a backup PG though because JMac I have doubts about. I certainly wouldn't count on him now as your penciled in backup.

Wolvesfan21 wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 8:20 am

WildWolf2813 wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 12:15 am

Wolvesfan21 wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 10:25 pm

At some point you are right that a small increase of one player on defense versus another can make little difference. I think though going from say KAT to an above avg defender could replace KAT all together. I mean the Wolves played pretty fine without him for 50 games or whatever. I just don't think KAT makes that much difference to overall wins and losses. What he gives on offense he mostly gives up on defense with high fouling and just bad defense in general.

I think if you concentrate on going defense though, like I said you can't really have weak spots. Because teams can and do attack it. They have gone at DLO, Steph Curry (who did improve for sure over the years), KAT and other one way guys. It's smart to make them tired and get the in foul trouble (KAT). And it's not like KAT has proven to be a winning player in the playoffs either. His numbers drop in the playoffs while real superstars get better. He has shrunk.

The problem with this identity is that if you try to turn every game into a rock fight, you have zero answers for teams that either shoot really well or shoot outside in high volume. Guys who are above average defensively and offensively are hard to find. We're gonna pay McDaniels $100-$125 mil and we don't even know if the offense will ever be consistent enough to buoy his defense.

The other thing about playing better defense is you can get out and run in transition. Get easy buckets on offense. Play better defense and feed the offense. Ant is a now a great transitional guy who can play downhill and is improving his passing. We need a backup PG though because JMac I have doubts about. I certainly wouldn't count on him now as your penciled in backup.

Yes.

But I don't know if they're built for it, sans one guy.

The two plodding 7 footers and smaller 36-year-old PG kind of limit some opportunities.

The inverse is true too....Play better offense and the defense can get better set.

Again, notwithstanding Miami's success this year, we've seen teams with one super high-usage star and a bunch of good role players (and may be a secondary semi-star) ultimately get stymied. Harden with Houston and Doncic with Dallas are two examples. Heck, it appears that Brunson and Randle aren't enough in New York.

Ant and KAT certainly weren't enough against Denver. The Wolves need to be 100% healthy AND just flat out play better to advance past the first round. One reason we are seeing these lower-seeded teams do so well is because most of their key guys are healthy, which wasn't the case during large chunks of the regular season.

It makes me wonder if we need to start putting in place "strategic rest days" for Ant starting next season, despite still being so young. The playoffs have proven that where you are seeded is almost meaningless. It's all about coming into the playoffs with a healthy roster.

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 10:28 am The inverse is true too....Play better offense and the defense can get better set.

Again, notwithstanding Miami's success this year, we've seen teams with one super high-usage star and a bunch of good role players (and may be a secondary semi-star) ultimately get stymied. Harden with Houston and Doncic with Dallas are two examples. Heck, it appears that Brunson and Randle aren't enough in New York.

Ant and KAT certainly weren't enough against Denver. The Wolves need to be 100% healthy AND just flat out play better to advance past the first round. One reason we are seeing these lower-seeded teams do so well is because most of their key guys are healthy, which wasn't the case during large chunks of the regular season.

It makes me wonder if we need to start putting in place "strategic rest days" for Ant starting next season, despite still being so young. The playoffs have proven that where you are seeded is almost meaningless. It's all about coming into the playoffs with a healthy roster.

While I enjoy/appreciate Edwards' going against the grain with his old-school approach to playing every day... it's not the way the NBA operates in 2023.

More rest is probably better if we're trying to keep up with other teams.






[Note: On a side note... what a GREAT job the players union is doing with the entire "load management" thing. There's real smoke behind the fewer games thing. And a huge chunk of the NBA fanbase is totally cool with (1) watching less basketball and (2) seeing star players less and less every season.

The players even got NBA teams to take the blame in the load management discussion... intimating that the players have no choice in whether they get to play that night or not... which is laughable and ridiculous if anybody uses common sense. Kudos player union.]

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 10:28 am The inverse is true too....Play better offense and the defense can get better set.

Again, notwithstanding Miami's success this year, we've seen teams with one super high-usage star and a bunch of good role players (and may be a secondary semi-star) ultimately get stymied. Harden with Houston and Doncic with Dallas are two examples. Heck, it appears that Brunson and Randle aren't enough in New York.

Ant and KAT certainly weren't enough against Denver. The Wolves need to be 100% healthy AND just flat out play better to advance past the first round. One reason we are seeing these lower-seeded teams do so well is because most of their key guys are healthy, which wasn't the case during large chunks of the regular season.

It makes me wonder if we need to start putting in place "strategic rest days" for Ant starting next season, despite still being so young. The playoffs have proven that where you are seeded is almost meaningless. It's all about coming into the playoffs with a healthy roster.

Good points, Q. I was worried about Ant playing nearly every game last season. Yes he’s young, but that sort of wear and tear adds up over time. I think that’s part of why KAT has been struggling with injuries the past few seasons. He went from being an iron man playing nearly every game to missing a lot of games with injury or illness.

I’m still convinced the Wolves should trade Gobert this summer for the long-term benefit of the team. And it wouldn’t hurt us much in the short term because we know the team can do well without Rudy as it did a year ago when the Wolves finished 10 games over .500 even though Ant and McDaniels weren’t nearly as good as they were this past season. However, I also think this team can be very good next season with Rudy if KAT, Ant and Jaden can stay healthy and if we have a solid backup for the aging and often-injured Conley. The Wolves came really close to winning game 5, which would have brought the series back to Minneapolis for a game 6 that the Wolves would have had a good chance of winning. So the Wolves came very close to taking the team with the West’s best record to seven games. Yet, KAT wasn’t close to the top of his game after the long layoff. He still needed a few more weeks to ramp up to be firing on all cylinders. Moreover, we didn’t have McDaniels or Reid. I think it’s likely the Wolves take the Nuggets to game 7 if either Naz or Jaden had been playing.

My bottom line is that this isn’t the time to blow things up by trading KAT. There’s also a credible argument that it would be a bad idea to trade Rudy this summer before we’ve had a chance to see the whole group come back and stay relatively healthy throughout next season. I would trade Rudy for the best deal I could get, but ultimately the fate of this team next season will depend to a large degree on the team’s health.

Bottom line for me is I'm sick of watching KAT play basketball and suck half the time in the playoffs. You got to step up in the playoffs not get worse. Ant has proven he can step up.

I'd be almost on board taking whatever we can get for KAT.

As far as Rudy his trade value is trash now. He's a year older, played worse, got injured (back spasms), punched a teammate on the bench and their is smoke that another superstar doesn't enjoy playing with him (Ant).

I would trade Rudy but we could probably only get a worse player or players for him now (like Simmons). I guess you could throw in a bunch of second round picks too.

That said if a decent deal for Rudy is out there I would jump on it too. I just don't think there would be now. I'd be fine dumping both 7 footers, but that seems very unlikely.

Wolvesfan21 wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 1:45 pm Bottom line for me is I'm sick of watching KAT play basketball and suck half the time in the playoffs. You got to step up in the playoffs not get worse. Ant has proven he can step up.

I'd be almost on board taking whatever we can get for KAT.

As far as Rudy his trade value is trash now. He's a year older, played worse, got injured (back spasms), punched a teammate on the bench and their is smoke that another superstar doesn't enjoy playing with him (Ant).

I would trade Rudy but we could probably only get a worse player or players for him now (like Simmons). I guess you could throw in a bunch of second round picks too.

That said if a decent deal for Rudy is out there I would jump on it too. I just don't think there would be now. I'd be fine dumping both 7 footers, but that seems very unlikely.

Understood, but being sick and tired of KAT as a fan is a lot different than the cold calculus of whether trading him brings back equal value. We continue to see former players we were "sick of watching" go on teams that somehow are able to tolerate their flaws as they advance in playoff series. And KAT is way better than DLO or Wiggins.

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 2:10 pm

Wolvesfan21 wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 1:45 pm Bottom line for me is I'm sick of watching KAT play basketball and suck half the time in the playoffs. You got to step up in the playoffs not get worse. Ant has proven he can step up.

I'd be almost on board taking whatever we can get for KAT.

As far as Rudy his trade value is trash now. He's a year older, played worse, got injured (back spasms), punched a teammate on the bench and their is smoke that another superstar doesn't enjoy playing with him (Ant).

I would trade Rudy but we could probably only get a worse player or players for him now (like Simmons). I guess you could throw in a bunch of second round picks too.

That said if a decent deal for Rudy is out there I would jump on it too. I just don't think there would be now. I'd be fine dumping both 7 footers, but that seems very unlikely.

Understood, but being sick and tired of KAT as a fan is a lot different than the cold calculus of whether trading him brings back equal value. We continue to see former players we were "sick of watching" go on teams that somehow are able to tolerate their flaws as they advance in playoff series. And KAT is way better than DLO or Wiggins.

I think as a Wolves player his trend of playoff biffs every other game will continue, that is my main reason for wanting to see a trade. I simply don't think he will show up when it matters most. We've made the playoffs twice now, we need to go further and I don't think KAT is that guy who will help.

Stephen A Smith was grilling Randle and Barrett. Saying they need to go. He brought up KAT.

So... Randle / Barrett / Quickly / Fournier / 4 1st rounders

for

KAT / Conley

I want nothing I mean nothing to do Randle. He would be terrible for Ant development. He iso everything, plays no defense and has an attitude issue. No showed his last 3 playoff series.

After being the sixth man of the year runner up IQ was garbage in the playoffs before his injury.

Barrett is interesting in my mind that his struggles could be that he played in the Thibs offense and the heavy Randle iso offense. I am not sure if I want to trade our “big” asset to find out.

These playoffs really had me souring on the Knicks package