Rudy trade ideas

[mjs34]

I understand wanting to moving on from Rudy but adding Ayton does nothing for this team.

1) Get significantly worse at defense
2) Does not spread the floor
3) Get worse at rebounding
4) Still playing 2 bigs what does not maximize Kat, Kat would still be guarding 4s but would not have an elite rim protector behind him, then 4s would still guard Kat so he does not have his ultimate advantage when center guard him.
5) multiple reports of Ayton not loving basketball
6) centers without an elite skill that make money are a negative asset. Ayton does not suck but he is not special and is not elite at anything, meaning what teams are dying to trade assets for the 8th best center in the nba. We are stuck with Ayton long term and he would be a negative asset going forward.

If Rudy is traded you need multiple mid level contracts, or some picks, or a player that moves Kat back to the majority center to maximize him. Ayton does none of that

1 Our def rating was slightly better last year before Rudy.
2 Ayton has range on his jump shot. Definitely better than Rudy.
3 We were significantly better rebounding before Rudy.
4 Having Ayton able to pull his guy out of the paint would allow KAT to post up more.
5 Dont know anything about the reports, but I do know several of Rudy's teammates don't like him.
6 I don't think Ayton's value is any lower than Rudy's.

I don't see much value for Rudy, but Phoenix seems like a nice option considering they are looking to move Ayton and are in win now mode.

#1 and #3 are simply not true, so not sure where you are getting your stats from. We were a slightly worse defensive team the season before Rudy (ranked 13th vs. 10th). We were also a poor defensive rebounding team before Rudy (ranked 27th vs. 26th) and not at all significantly better. Vando may have helped us a bit more on the offensive glass, but certainly not the defensive glass.

On #4, Ayton has more range than Rudy, but it isn't enough in my opinion to help overall spacing much.

That being said, the one thing Ayton can do that Rudy can't is create decent looks for himself and make shots outside of 3-feet from the rim. I also think he could make for a better PnR partner for Ant in that Ant doesn't need an advanced skill-set in delivering him a pass. That push shot of Ayton's would be available a lot with Ant drawing so much attention going down hill and it's not a difficult pass to make on the short roll.

Ayton's defense isn't nearly as good as Rudy's, but it's not bad either. So I think he could offer a solution that makes us a better offense without completely cratering our defense, especially if NAW takes Nowell's minutes.

While it is true that our ranking improved marginally, our rating was 111.7 before Rudy and 113.8 with Rudy. Our team rebounding ranking was 16 before Rudy and 23 with. I used stats from BB ref. I am admittedly not as tech and stat savvy as some of you, but i don't see a significant change in defense with or without Rudy. With regard to spacing, it would improve somewhat, and could get better over the next few years. I don't see a down side to making this trade, and certainly a benefit in the salary column as well as having a younger guy.

[Sundog]

I get the Ayton for Rudy concept. But Ayton seems like a head case, doesn’t he? Quit on his team? Rudy’s not perfect, but I haven’t heard anyone question his heart or commitment. Admittedly I haven’t watched much Suns basketball, but is this a guy we want here?

[Lipoli390]

1 Our def rating was slightly better last year before Rudy.
2 Ayton has range on his jump shot. Definitely better than Rudy.
3 We were significantly better rebounding before Rudy.
4 Having Ayton able to pull his guy out of the paint would allow KAT to post up more.
5 Dont know anything about the reports, but I do know several of Rudy's teammates don't like him.
6 I don't think Ayton's value is any lower than Rudy's.

I don't see much value for Rudy, but Phoenix seems like a nice option considering they are looking to move Ayton and are in win now mode.

#1 and #3 are simply not true, so not sure where you are getting your stats from. We were a slightly worse defensive team the season before Rudy (ranked 13th vs. 10th). We were also a poor defensive rebounding team before Rudy (ranked 27th vs. 26th) and not at all significantly better. Vando may have helped us a bit more on the offensive glass, but certainly not the defensive glass.

On #4, Ayton has more range than Rudy, but it isn't enough in my opinion to help overall spacing much.

That being said, the one thing Ayton can do that Rudy can't is create decent looks for himself and make shots outside of 3-feet from the rim. I also think he could make for a better PnR partner for Ant in that Ant doesn't need an advanced skill-set in delivering him a pass. That push shot of Ayton's would be available a lot with Ant drawing so much attention going down hill and it's not a difficult pass to make on the short roll.

Ayton's defense isn't nearly as good as Rudy's, but it's not bad either. So I think he could offer a solution that makes us a better offense without completely cratering our defense, especially if NAW takes Nowell's minutes.

While it is true that our ranking improved marginally, our rating was 111.7 before Rudy and 113.8 with Rudy. Our team rebounding ranking was 16 before Rudy and 23 with. I used stats from BB ref. I am admittedly not as tech and stat savvy as some of you, but i don't see a significant change in defense with or without Rudy. With regard to spacing, it would improve somewhat, and could get better over the next few years. I don't see a down side to making this trade, and certainly a benefit in the salary column as well as having a younger guy.

All true. Bottom line is that the team was much better offensively and won more games without Rudy last season than with him this season and failed to improve significantly in the two metrics that reflect Rudy’s strengths - defense and rebounding. I’ll note that KAT’s defensive rating last season as our starting center was almost identical to Rudy’s as our starting center this season. At age 31, Rudy’s not going to get better and there’s a significant chance his production will decline over the rest of his contract. Meanwhile, his max contract will continue to go up. If the Wolves can acquire the much younger Ayton for $8 million per year less in a one-for-one swap, they should do it. And I’m not an Ayton fan. But I think Q has pointed out the advantages of Ayton over Rudy beyond the age difference and additional luxury tax room to sign a meaningful free agent.

[kekgeek]

#1 and #3 are simply not true, so not sure where you are getting your stats from. We were a slightly worse defensive team the season before Rudy (ranked 13th vs. 10th). We were also a poor defensive rebounding team before Rudy (ranked 27th vs. 26th) and not at all significantly better. Vando may have helped us a bit more on the offensive glass, but certainly not the defensive glass.

On #4, Ayton has more range than Rudy, but it isn't enough in my opinion to help overall spacing much.

That being said, the one thing Ayton can do that Rudy can't is create decent looks for himself and make shots outside of 3-feet from the rim. I also think he could make for a better PnR partner for Ant in that Ant doesn't need an advanced skill-set in delivering him a pass. That push shot of Ayton's would be available a lot with Ant drawing so much attention going down hill and it's not a difficult pass to make on the short roll.

Ayton's defense isn't nearly as good as Rudy's, but it's not bad either. So I think he could offer a solution that makes us a better offense without completely cratering our defense, especially if NAW takes Nowell's minutes.

While it is true that our ranking improved marginally, our rating was 111.7 before Rudy and 113.8 with Rudy. Our team rebounding ranking was 16 before Rudy and 23 with. I used stats from BB ref. I am admittedly not as tech and stat savvy as some of you, but i don't see a significant change in defense with or without Rudy. With regard to spacing, it would improve somewhat, and could get better over the next few years. I don't see a down side to making this trade, and certainly a benefit in the salary column as well as having a younger guy.

All true. Bottom line is that the team was much better offensively and won more games without Rudy last season than with him this season and failed to improve significantly in the two metrics that reflect Rudy’s strengths - defense and rebounding. I’ll note that KAT’s defensive rating last season as our starting center was almost identical to Rudy’s as our starting center this season. At age 31, Rudy’s not going to get better and there’s a significant chance his production will decline over the rest of his contract. Meanwhile, his max contract will continue to go up. If the Wolves can acquire the much younger Ayton for $8 million per year less in a one-for-one swap, they should do it. And I’m not an Ayton fan. But I think Q has pointed out the advantages of Ayton over Rudy beyond the age difference and additional luxury tax room to sign a meaningful free agent.

Just want to say context matters when we look at defensive rating year to year. Offense in the NBA was way up compared to last year. 2.9 pts per 100 possessions higher in the whole NBA compared to last what is a shit ton. Mostly because of I’m assuming no take fouls this year.

So even though Kat defensive rating last year is similar to Rudy this year it does not take in consideration of the inflation of pts. Kat lineups were in the 50th percentile last year, so they definition of league average. Wolves were in the 88th percentile with Rudy on the floor this year, so a very above average defense and had 2 of the top 4 defensive 5 man units in the nba both involved Rudy.

Then when we talk about rebuilding issue. Context also matters, when Rudy was on the floor the wolves rebounded 74.5% of all misses by the defense what is in the 62nd percentile (slightly above average), when Rudy was off the floor wolves only rebounded opponents misses 68.8% of opponents misses what is in the 9th percentile (god awful). Wolves last year rebounded misses at a 71.6% clip what was the 23rd percentile (below average)

Rudy fixed a shit ton of our weakness, we were an elite defensive team with Rudy on the court this year and a solid rebounding team with Rudy in. Those team stats were just terrible in terms of defense and rebounding when Rudy was off the court.

I’m going to continue to provide context when it comes to these things. Now our offense was shit with Rudy I can’t argue that, I’m just really worried the floor is going to fall apart on the defensive and rebounding side if we traded Rudy, because he patched up a lot of that actual pathetic play the rest of the wolves contributed in this area

[Sundog]

Thanks kek, good post! And I think alot’s been made of the spacing issues that Rudy apparently causes for Ant, but a recent Howls and Growls had this nugget:

“When Edwards was on the floor alongside Gobert, the 21-year-old shot 67.4 percent. When Gobert was on the pine, Edwards shot 61 percent from that within four feet range. According to Cleaning The Glass, a 67 percent clip would be around the numbers of All-World scorers like Devin Booker, Julius Randle, and Jimmy
Butler. While a 61 percent is hovering around the likes of Spencer Dinwiddie, DeAndre Hunter and Collin Sexton. In terms of on-off impact, Gobert’s presence seems to bridge the gap between otherworldly scoring force and inefficient shot-hunter.”

I don’t know that that entirely refutes the spacing issues, but it’s really interesting.

[Lipoli390]

We can parse stats till the cows come home. But again, what ultimately matters is the team’s overall performance for the season with Rudy as the staring max-salary center playing the vast majority of games while the team’s best player/all-star (Ant) and best defender (Jaden) played nearly every game. The overall result was a team that barely finished over .500 while plummeting offensively from the season before with no rebounding improvement and marginal defensive improvement. If Rudy were 25 years old instead of 31 or earning $20 million per year rather than $40 million the calculus might be different. But no amount of statistical lipstick can make the pig look pretty.

I expect Rudy and KAT to be here next season and if everyone is healthy I think this team will finish in the 6-8 range and might even advance one round. But I don’t see this team as a serious championship contender next season and I think Rudy’s ongoing presence will be an anchor around this organization’s ability to build a championship contender around Ant. Let’s remember that even at his best in his prime, Rudy became a liability in the playoffs for the Jazz. Meanwhile he’s entering the backside of his career with likely diminishing production as his already large max salary continues to increase. That’s the full context.

[Q-is-here]

Thanks kek, good post! And I think alot’s been made of the spacing issues that Rudy apparently causes for Ant, but a recent Howls and Growls had this nugget:

“When Edwards was on the floor alongside Gobert, the 21-year-old shot 67.4 percent. When Gobert was on the pine, Edwards shot 61 percent from that within four feet range. According to Cleaning The Glass, a 67 percent clip would be around the numbers of All-World scorers like Devin Booker, Julius Randle, and Jimmy
Butler. While a 61 percent is hovering around the likes of Spencer Dinwiddie, DeAndre Hunter and Collin Sexton. In terms of on-off impact, Gobert’s presence seems to bridge the gap between otherworldly scoring force and inefficient shot-hunter.”

I don’t know that that entirely refutes the spacing issues, but it’s really interesting.

Interesting info. I'd need to see the total picture of data, including his shot distribution when Rudy is in the game with him. It's one thing to shoot a high percentage from within 4 feet, but how much does it matter if his number of attempts are suppressed because Rudy is clogging the lane? May be every once in a while Rudy sets a killer screen and Ant gets a clear path for an easy layup, but more often than not, Rudy rolls or dives right into the space Ant occupies (??).

It would be very interesting to see how Ant would do in a 5-out system like Boston. Of course, you need 4 guys that can actually shoot the ball to make that work and are willing to space the floor.

[Monster]

While it is true that our ranking improved marginally, our rating was 111.7 before Rudy and 113.8 with Rudy. Our team rebounding ranking was 16 before Rudy and 23 with. I used stats from BB ref. I am admittedly not as tech and stat savvy as some of you, but i don't see a significant change in defense with or without Rudy. With regard to spacing, it would improve somewhat, and could get better over the next few years. I don't see a down side to making this trade, and certainly a benefit in the salary column as well as having a younger guy.

All true. Bottom line is that the team was much better offensively and won more games without Rudy last season than with him this season and failed to improve significantly in the two metrics that reflect Rudy’s strengths - defense and rebounding. I’ll note that KAT’s defensive rating last season as our starting center was almost identical to Rudy’s as our starting center this season. At age 31, Rudy’s not going to get better and there’s a significant chance his production will decline over the rest of his contract. Meanwhile, his max contract will continue to go up. If the Wolves can acquire the much younger Ayton for $8 million per year less in a one-for-one swap, they should do it. And I’m not an Ayton fan. But I think Q has pointed out the advantages of Ayton over Rudy beyond the age difference and additional luxury tax room to sign a meaningful free agent.

Just want to say context matters when we look at defensive rating year to year. Offense in the NBA was way up compared to last year. 2.9 pts per 100 possessions higher in the whole NBA compared to last what is a shit ton. Mostly because of I’m assuming no take fouls this year.

So even though Kat defensive rating last year is similar to Rudy this year it does not take in consideration of the inflation of pts. Kat lineups were in the 50th percentile last year, so they definition of league average. Wolves were in the 88th percentile with Rudy on the floor this year, so a very above average defense and had 2 of the top 4 defensive 5 man units in the nba both involved Rudy.

Then when we talk about rebuilding issue. Context also matters, when Rudy was on the floor the wolves rebounded 74.5% of all misses by the defense what is in the 62nd percentile (slightly above average), when Rudy was off the floor wolves only rebounded opponents misses 68.8% of opponents misses what is in the 9th percentile (god awful). Wolves last year rebounded misses at a 71.6% clip what was the 23rd percentile (below average)

Rudy fixed a shit ton of our weakness, we were an elite defensive team with Rudy on the court this year and a solid rebounding team with Rudy in. Those team stats were just terrible in terms of defense and rebounding when Rudy was off the court.

I’m going to continue to provide context when it comes to these things. Now our offense was shit with Rudy I can’t argue that, I’m just really worried the floor is going to fall apart on the defensive and rebounding side if we traded Rudy, because he patched up a lot of that actual pathetic play the rest of the wolves contributed in this area

This is some good stuff. I’ll also point out again that the Wolves guards were honestly bad as a total group. The Wolves had 3 good guards this season Edwards, Russell and Conley. Everyone else was either ok or bad. Anderson basically playing as a PG at PF covered up a lot of the void of guard play and playmaking. Imagine if the Wolves actually had guards off the bench that could do some of that or hit some 3 pointers. In addition some of the Wolves guards were bad on D too. None of this helped get the most out of the roster or Gobert who clearly needs some help to get the most value out of him. The bar of improving the guard play past the starters is pretty low. Some Guards from past Wolves benches would probably be better. NAW wasn’t that thrilling but he was an improvement overall from most of the guys that played minutes at those spots this year. Not everyone sucked all the time but overall the bench guards simply weren’t that good.

The Wolves can find some improvements there for not that much money. Look at a guy like a Lonnie Walker who seemed like a bit of an odd signing last offseason and he ended up being pretty good for the Lakers then tailed off a bit then I think got back to being solid. Against the defending champion Warriors he averaged more PPG than all but 3 warriors and he came off the bench. It’s time the Wolves made some more smart moves and we should expect it. Kyle Anderson was a HR FA signing last offseason. If the Wolves could hit a double with a FA perimeter player that could help quite a bit. Even the right vet min signing that gives them something like what Rivers did but an even better fit could really help. Those guys are gonna be available.

[Lipoli390]

This thread appears to have morphed from a “Rudy trade ideas” thread to a “reasons not to trade Rudy” thread. . I’ll try to take it back to its original purpose with the following trade idea:

Wolves trade: Gobert and Knight
Wolves receive: Quickley, Hartenstein, Fournier and Toppin

Why would the Knicks do this? The Knicks are in a win-now mode with a head coach who loves vets and defense and Gobert fits the bill. They’d be getting one of the League’s best defensive and rebounding centers along with young athletic center with upside while giving up only one important player from last season, Quickley. They’d still have their best player and one star, Brunson, and other core win-now players in Randle and Barrett. They’d still have two of their three most promising players in Grimes and Mitchell. And they’d be getting rid of Fournier and his salary. Toppin wasn’t a factor last season, averaging a rounder minutes a game and not producing much. Hartenstein was solid for the Knicks, but was still a bench player averaging around 20 minutes a game. Getting Gobert while keeping Mitchell would be a big positive for the Knicks.

Why should the Wolves consider it? They’d get a promising young PG who brings toughness and 3-point shooting to a team that definitely needs both. He’s a great complement to Ant because he can play off the ball as a spot up three-point shooter. He’d be another ball-handling shot-creator who could take some of the load off Ant and facilitate for Ant as well. He’d be the perfect heir to Conley. Hartenstein would be the sort of big TC should have pursued in lieu of trading the farm for Rudy. Toppin would be here one season and likely gone after that. Fournier would be a three-point shooter off the bench for us. In addition, the Wolves would have $7 million in additional room under the luxury tax threshold.

Ultimately this deal comes down to Gobert for Quickley.

The rest of the pieces are mainly salary filler. The Knicks benefit by getting rid of Fournier’s unproductive contract while the Wolves get some bench help in Hartenstein and perhaps some bench scoring from Fournier. I think it’s a win-win. The Knicks don’t really need Quickly. They have Brunson, Barrett, Hart, Grimes and Rose. So they’re set at the PG and SG positions.

[worldK]

This thread appears to have morphed from a “Rudy trade ideas” thread to a “reasons not to trade Rudy” thread. . I’ll try to take it back to its original purpose with the following trade idea:

Wolves trade: Gobert and Knight
Wolves receive: Quickley, Hartenstein, Fournier and Toppin

Why would the Knicks do this? The Knicks are in a win-now mode with a head coach who loves vets and defense and Gobert fits the bill. They’d be getting one of the League’s best defensive and rebounding centers along with young athletic center with upside while giving up only one important player from last season, Quickley. They’d still have their best player and one star, Brunson, and other core win-now players in Randle and Barrett. They’d still have two of their three most promising players in Grimes and Mitchell. And they’d be getting rid of Fournier and his salary. Toppin wasn’t a factor last season, averaging a rounder minutes a game and not producing much. Hartenstein was solid for the Knicks, but was still a bench player averaging around 20 minutes a game. Getting Gobert while keeping Mitchell would be a big positive for the Knicks.

Why should the Wolves consider it? They’d get a promising young PG who brings toughness and 3-point shooting to a team that definitely needs both. He’s a great complement to Ant because he can play off the ball as a spot up three-point shooter. He’d be another ball-handling shot-creator who could take some of the load off Ant and facilitate for Ant as well. He’d be the perfect heir to Conley. Hartenstein would be the sort of big TC should have pursued in lieu of trading the farm for Rudy. Toppin would be here one season and likely gone after that. Fournier would be a three-point shooter off the bench for us. In addition, the Wolves would have $7 million in additional room under the luxury tax threshold.

Ultimately this deal comes down to Gobert for Quickley.

The rest of the pieces are mainly salary filler. The Knicks benefit by getting rid of Fournier’s unproductive contract while the Wolves get some bench help in Hartenstein and perhaps some bench scoring from Fournier. I think it’s a win-win. The Knicks don’t really need Quickly. They have Brunson, Barrett, Hart, Grimes and Rose. So they’re set at the PG and SG positions.

I'd do this trade too lip for all the reasons you gave but I would ask for at least 1 first round pick to be included. I am a fan of Quickley and think he can be a starting caliber pg in the league. He can shoot and defend. Hartenstein and Toppin could be flip for lates firsts or multiple 2nds. We will probably be stuck with Fournier but he brings 3pt shooting that we sorely need.