Re: Summer league
Posted: Sat Jul 08, 2023 8:03 pm
Wemby must have rejuvenated Pops. He just signed for five more years at the age of 74.
80 million can buy a lot of wine.
Wolves fan commiserate here!
https://forum.midwestvolleyball.com/phpBB3/
https://forum.midwestvolleyball.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=30966
Ha! Yep. I was think same. The biggest reason the Rudy trade looks bad is because of Kessler seems to be legit. I'm guessing (based on Wolves drafting) it's something like less than 20% chance of any draft pick becoming a productive NBA player. Look at our three picks last year: Wendell Moore Jr., Josh Minott and some guy named Spicoli. We got 250 NBA minutes from those guys. Kessler gave Utah 1700. If they hit on Keonte George, it's going to make for a lot of bitching on here...
Ha, plus 10 assists after averaging about 2PG in college! A terrific night for a guy I wasn't very excited about during the draft. Let's see what he does against Wendell tomorrow.
I don’t think we should predict Wolves draft success going forward on the incredible lack of success by prior front office regimes. Connelly was hired based mainly on his record of impressive draft success. Past is not prologue going forward in my view. Last year’s draft was a good example. Connelly made four picks last year. He clearly hit on Kessler. So he’s already at 20% based on Kessler alone only one year after the draft. Minott is looking like he’ll become a success by second-round standards. If so, that’s 50% with picks below 20. And I think it’s too early to write off Moore or even Spagnolo. Unlike every prior Wolves front office regime, Connelly hasn’t made any picks that I’d consider terrible. Every prior regime made at least one and in most cases multiple picks I thought were horrible on draft day and continued to consider horrible thereafter.Carlos Danger wrote: ↑Sun Jul 09, 2023 9:26 amHa! Yep. I was think same. The biggest reason the Rudy trade looks bad is because of Kessler seems to be legit. I'm guessing (based on Wolves drafting) it's something like less than 20% chance of any draft pick becoming a productive NBA player. Look at our three picks last year: Wendell Moore Jr., Josh Minott and some guy named Spicoli. We got 250 NBA minutes from those guys. Kessler gave Utah 1700. If they hit on Keonte George, it's going to make for a lot of bitching on here...
Lip - I just don't see the nearly the success rate in drafting as you do. Just a few points to bat around:Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 09, 2023 10:02 amI don’t think we should predict Wolves draft success going forward on the incredible lack of success by prior front office regimes. Connelly was hired based mainly on his record of impressive draft success. Past is not prologue going forward in my view. Last year’s draft was a good example. Connelly made four picks last year. He clearly hit on Kessler. So he’s already at 20% based on Kessler alone only one year after the draft. Minott is looking like he’ll become a success by second-round standards. If so, that’s 50% with picks below 20. And I think it’s too early to write off Moore or even Spagnolo. Unlike every prior Wolves front office regime, Connelly hasn’t made any picks that I’d consider terrible. Every prior regime made at least one and in most cases multiple picks I thought were horrible on draft day and continued to consider horrible thereafter.Carlos Danger wrote: ↑Sun Jul 09, 2023 9:26 amHa! Yep. I was think same. The biggest reason the Rudy trade looks bad is because of Kessler seems to be legit. I'm guessing (based on Wolves drafting) it's something like less than 20% chance of any draft pick becoming a productive NBA player. Look at our three picks last year: Wendell Moore Jr., Josh Minott and some guy named Spicoli. We got 250 NBA minutes from those guys. Kessler gave Utah 1700. If they hit on Keonte George, it's going to make for a lot of bitching on here...
That’s a long way of saying that I think we’re going to be happy TC has kept the rest of his picks so far, but we’ll also be increasingly pissed as we bear witness to the success of Kessler, Keonte George and others we could have drafted this year and in three future drafts. I was reading an article that the 2025 draft is expected to be especially rich in talent.
Of course, my angst over the Gobert deal goes well beyond what we’ve seen from Kessler or even who we could have drafted this year. It’s (1) the opportunity cost of the deal - i.e., the opportunities the Wolves would have otherwise had to get more for less with all the assets we gave up, including the lost opportunity to trade ANY future 1st-round picks under the CBA; (2) the financial albatross of taking on another max contract on top of KAT’s contract and what our front office had to know would be an eventual max deal for Ant and big contract for Jaden; and (3) what I still consider Rudy’s poor fit with KAT and especially Ant - a player whose talents are optimized by space and pace in a space-and-pace League.
What I find especially curious is that Rudy doesn’t fit the player archetype that TC emphasizes and acquires - i.e., athletic, versatile players who can play multiple positions and do a lot of different things. Makes me wonder if the Rudy deal was already well all but done before TC arrived and he didn’t feel comfortable enough yet to say no.
The good news is that losing Kessler, George and other opportunities resulting from the Gobert deal won’t sting as bad if Miller and Minott develop to their full potential as players for the Timberwolves. Maybe Moore of Spagnolo will pan out. Maybe NAW will add a reliable 3-point shot to the defense we saw from him last April and become a 6th man of the year candidate. Maybe Toy Brown will suddenly blossom into a valuable NBA rotation player. Maybe TC will come up with a gem in the first round next year. And maybe TC will find a deal for Rudy between now and the 2024-25 season that returns at least one future first round pick - sort of like getting back 1 of the 3 we still owe.
TC was asked a month or so ago about the Kessler pick and it was clear from what TC said in response that Kessler was TC’s pick. Teams don’t pick for another team unless the deal has already been done. The Gobert trade wasn’t done until a couple weeks after the draft.Carlos Danger wrote: ↑Sun Jul 09, 2023 8:15 pmLip - I just don't see the nearly the success rate in drafting as you do. Just a few points to bat around:Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 09, 2023 10:02 amI don’t think we should predict Wolves draft success going forward on the incredible lack of success by prior front office regimes. Connelly was hired based mainly on his record of impressive draft success. Past is not prologue going forward in my view. Last year’s draft was a good example. Connelly made four picks last year. He clearly hit on Kessler. So he’s already at 20% based on Kessler alone only one year after the draft. Minott is looking like he’ll become a success by second-round standards. If so, that’s 50% with picks below 20. And I think it’s too early to write off Moore or even Spagnolo. Unlike every prior Wolves front office regime, Connelly hasn’t made any picks that I’d consider terrible. Every prior regime made at least one and in most cases multiple picks I thought were horrible on draft day and continued to consider horrible thereafter.Carlos Danger wrote: ↑Sun Jul 09, 2023 9:26 am
Ha! Yep. I was think same. The biggest reason the Rudy trade looks bad is because of Kessler seems to be legit. I'm guessing (based on Wolves drafting) it's something like less than 20% chance of any draft pick becoming a productive NBA player. Look at our three picks last year: Wendell Moore Jr., Josh Minott and some guy named Spicoli. We got 250 NBA minutes from those guys. Kessler gave Utah 1700. If they hit on Keonte George, it's going to make for a lot of bitching on here...
That’s a long way of saying that I think we’re going to be happy TC has kept the rest of his picks so far, but we’ll also be increasingly pissed as we bear witness to the success of Kessler, Keonte George and others we could have drafted this year and in three future drafts. I was reading an article that the 2025 draft is expected to be especially rich in talent.
Of course, my angst over the Gobert deal goes well beyond what we’ve seen from Kessler or even who we could have drafted this year. It’s (1) the opportunity cost of the deal - i.e., the opportunities the Wolves would have otherwise had to get more for less with all the assets we gave up, including the lost opportunity to trade ANY future 1st-round picks under the CBA; (2) the financial albatross of taking on another max contract on top of KAT’s contract and what our front office had to know would be an eventual max deal for Ant and big contract for Jaden; and (3) what I still consider Rudy’s poor fit with KAT and especially Ant - a player whose talents are optimized by space and pace in a space-and-pace League.
What I find especially curious is that Rudy doesn’t fit the player archetype that TC emphasizes and acquires - i.e., athletic, versatile players who can play multiple positions and do a lot of different things. Makes me wonder if the Rudy deal was already well all but done before TC arrived and he didn’t feel comfortable enough yet to say no.
The good news is that losing Kessler, George and other opportunities resulting from the Gobert deal won’t sting as bad if Miller and Minott develop to their full potential as players for the Timberwolves. Maybe Moore of Spagnolo will pan out. Maybe NAW will add a reliable 3-point shot to the defense we saw from him last April and become a 6th man of the year candidate. Maybe Toy Brown will suddenly blossom into a valuable NBA rotation player. Maybe TC will come up with a gem in the first round next year. And maybe TC will find a deal for Rudy between now and the 2024-25 season that returns at least one future first round pick - sort of like getting back 1 of the 3 we still owe.
1.) Has it ever actually been disclosed who made the Kessler pick? If so, please post link/source. I know some are crediting TC. I don't know if that's true or not because I've never seen it disclosed one way or the other.
2.) We can't count Minott has a success yet. I like him as a prospect. But he hasn't done anything yet.
3.) Admittedly, I pulled the "less than 20% success rate" of draft picks out of ass. But I just did a little sample to see how close I was in that guess. Here was my process...
* I used 0.5 VORP as my standard for a productive player (that's on par for a solid rotational/bench contributor).
* I looked back at the last 10 drafts to see what percentage of picks accumulated enough VORP to average 0.5 VORP/year. Here are my results:
a. 2022 – 4 out of 58 (7%) 0.5 VORP
b. 2021 – 8 out of 60 (13%) 1.0 VORP
c. 2020 – 11 out of 60 (18%) 1.5 VORP
d. 2019 – 12 out of 60 (20%) 2.0 VORP
e. 2018 – 20 out of 60 (33%) 2.5 VORP
f. 2017 – 14 out of 60 (23%) 3.0 VORP
g. 2016 – 12 out of 60 (20%) 3.5 VORP
h. 2015 – 17 out of 60 (28%) 4.0 VORP
i. 2014 – 14 out of 60 (23%) 4.5 VORP
j. 2013 – 12 out of 60 (20%) 5.0 VORP
Ten year sample success rate: 124 out of 598 equals 20.7% success rate (surprising close to what I pulled out of my butt). That means roughly 80% failure of draft picks. Which means, when trading draft picks for players that contribute VORP, you have excellent odds of winning that trade. The Kessler pick is simply an exception to that rule. He put up 2.1 VORP his first season. We played the percentages and lost on that one. Oh well. Call it dumb Timberwolves luck.
Disclaimer: I realize VORP isn't for everyone and my 0.5/year might seem arbitrary. Obviously if you change that to 0.4 or 0. whatever, all the numbers/percentages change. But I feel like the results will be directionally similar regardless of your method and measuring stick. The success rate of draft picks isn't going to be greater than the failure rate. Which means when trading draft picks, more often than not - you are trading away nothing for something. Wolves fans should know that all too well based on picks like: Jarrett Culver, Josh Okogie, Justin Patten, Kris Dunn, Shabazz Muhammed etc. And that's why the Rudy trade was fine (in theory anyway).