SameOldNudityDrew wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2023 3:11 pm
I respect the argument, Q, but I don't know that we can definitively say we can't win with Rudy.
Defense
I'll start with the defense, which you've admitted is not the crux of your argument, but it used to be the big knock on Rudy if teams went small and it's fair to discuss, so here goes. If opponents go small against us, it's theoretically trying to get an offensive advantage to spread the floor without suffering a defensive disadvantage because they know Rudy's not a low-post scorer. That could absolutely happen, it's true. But three things about that.
First, opposing teams not only need 5 smaller guys, but they'd need 5 smaller guys who are a threat from the perimeter, otherwise Rudy can sit home on the non-shooter somewhat. Some teams have that, but it also creates defensive liabilities for them because they often have to put guards out there who Ant would roast or KAT would shoot over.
Second, as people have already pointed out, Rudy has been a fairly decent defender outside the paint recently. So it's fair to say the old idea that Terrence Mann is going to put him on skates and just play him off the floor is at least in need of more evidence (and it was always based on just a couple of games anyway). Besides, with Jaden, NAW, Ant when he's locked in, and even SloMo, we have much better defenders than Utah ever had around Rudy, so the potential defensive liabilities of pulling Rudy out of the paint if a team puts 5 small shooters on the floor is also mitigated by that fact.
And finally, Q, you mention that if he does get pulled out of the paint against a smaller lineup that can stretch the floor, it negates his shot-blocking. Ok, true. But with KAT and Jaden, we've got two other really long guys who will presumably be in our closing lineup, so even if a team can draw Rudy out of the paint defensively, we still have a lot of length around the rest of the floor. It's not like we're a team with Rudy and a bunch of 6'5" guys.
Offense
The main thrust of your argument, Q, relies on the offensive end though, and in particular on the fact that Rudy has terrible hands. And that's absolutely true. But I don't think it's absolutely true that we have to force-feed him the ball, even if teams go small against us. I've been as frustrated as anyone at how many attempts to feed him the ball in the post or throw a lob to him have led to a turnover. But there is a solution and it's not that tough-- we need to be more careful about when and how to pass him the ball. Many of the turnovers we've had this year have been at least as much the fault of the person who has tried to force him a difficult pass. Yes, his hands suck. But guys can be smarter about when and how to pass him the ball. That's a fixable problem, not an inevitability.
Watching that happen so much these last couple years, you might think we've gotten significantly worse at turning the ball over since we traded for Rudy. But relative to the rest of the league, that's not really the case. We currently rank 22nd in the league in turnovers, which is admittedly not good. And we were 27th last year. Again, not good. But the year before we got Rudy? We were
also 27th. So despite the eye test, the numbers suggest that having Rudy hasn't sunk our turnover rankings. Of course, we DO need to cut down on turnovers, and being smarter about not passing him the ball so often and in such bad situations would help. But we turned the ball over too much
before Rudy came and to some degree, the turnovers we're having with him now are somewhat fixable mistakes that are as much the fault of the passers, so it's kind of tough to lay that at Rudy's feet.
Finally, you might say that we'd be
forced to feed Rudy the ball in the post if teams go small against us. But I don't think that's necessarily the case. Rudy would have a size advantage down low, but rather than mistakenly trying to take advantage of that by feeding him the ball except when he's definitely open and we can hit him with a safer pass, we should take advantage of that by letting KAT shoot against the presumably shorter defender who will be on him and if he misses, let Rudy use his size advantage when it comes to trying to get offensive rebounds. Also, Rudy has been a good screen setter this year around the elbows, which have often led to Ant getting space to take a mid-range shot (where he's one of the league leaders in FG%) or force the help defense to collapse when he can kick it out to the corner. So I still see a role for Rudy on offense even if the opponents go small that would allow him to take advantage of his size in rebounding and setting picks, without necessarily having to force him into low-post offense. And who knows, the Ant-Rudy pick and roll hasn't been THAT bad this year, and they'll have the rest of the year to get that chemistry down, so I wouldn't rule out the possibility if they get that timing down that they'll be able to punish teams for going small against us.
Oh, also, and Naz. I know it's crazy to sit a 50 million dollar player, but if needed we can also go to Naz and KAT for key stretches. Rudy could be like the starting pitcher who could get us into the position to win games, and Naz and KAT can close if it's really not working with Rudy.
Overall
Who knows? Maybe a team can't win with him and maybe one can, but it's kind of speculation to try to answer that definitively, and there are so many other variables. I don't necessarily see you making this argument Q, but it might be tempting to think that because Rudy never did break through all the way with Utah, that he just can't do it, but the sample size is still relatively small, especially when you consider that only 1 out of 30 teams can win each year. Besides, the fact that something hasn't happened in the past isn't evidence it never can.
Look, the odds are that he probably won't win a championship. But I suspect that's probably more because the odds are that
most NBA players won't win a championship, rather than because of any particular issues with him as a player specifically.
If we fail to win a championship, there will be plenty of reasons why. Many will have to do with our players and coaches and how they perform, and many will have to do with how other teams will just have been better. It may just have to do with luck--who is injured and who isn't. If we don't win, Rudy's problems would be one reason why, but they wouldn't be the only ones. But who knows? Maybe we do win?! I do think it's possible, even if it's a long shot. And if we do win, it will be both despite Rudy because of his flaws, but also because of Rudy due to the positives he brings to the table. And the same will be true for all the other major players on the team.
So logic tells me it's possible. It's also possible my emotions have disguised themselves as logic. I've dreamt of winning it all for almost 24 years now. I want it so badly. Maybe I'm being hopelessly optimistic. But I guess I prefer to think that I don't believe that anything's inevitable, even losing. And that's saying something coming from a Wolves fan.
