FNG wrote: ↑Tue Nov 18, 2025 8:51 pm
Interesting stat from Chris Hine today on Dane's pod that I would not have anticipated. With Rudy on the bench, the Wolves have had a DRtg of 110 the past 5 games. Granted we have had some cupcakes in that 5 game series, but still...that's very good. Rudy will continue to be vital to our success, but improved defense in the non-Rudy minutes brings us to a new level...especially if Naz has also found his offensive game.
That is very encouraging.
I wonder what the lineup combinations are
Well I investigated my own question, and the results were interesting for sure.
First the starting lineup is still balling out
(Min)(Off)(Def)(Net)
(116)(125)(109)(+16.5)
Starters minus Ant plus Coney
(66)(127)(105)(+21.7)
Those are the two highest minutes 5 man lineups. Now all of the non Rudy 5 man line ups are at 20 minutes or less, so it's difficult to divine too much, but still encouraging stuff.
Conley/Randle/Naz/Jaden/Clark
(21)(120)(110)(+10)
Conley/Randle/Naz/Ant/Clark
(20)(118)(106)(+11.5)
Conley/Randle/Naz/Jaden/Dante
(13)(153)(92)(+51!)
The last lineup is obviously bonkers and certainly has outlier data but these help provide data points to the fact that the Naz/Randle pairing might not be completely devastating defensively as long as it's paired with at least two of our top three perimeter defenders.
Caveats apply regarding strength of competition as well, but I just want to point out that the wolves are the only ones beating up on cupcakes.
Here are the bottom 5 in SOS against
30. PHO
29. OKC
28. Dal
27. MIN
26. SA
25. Denver
Yeah, I'm trying not to look at the 5-man lineup combinations yet because the sample size is so small. But it makes sense that if you have Clark/Ant or Clark/Jaden or Ant/Jaden that the point-of-attack defense is going to help out with our lack of paint protection. And even Conley works his ass off out there defensively. I also think Naz has stepped up his game on both ends of late.
Just don't look at any combination with Dillingham in it! He is bleeding points on both ends I'm afraid.
thedoper wrote: ↑Tue Nov 18, 2025 11:13 pm
Rudy is like a really good knuckleballer to me. He will average out wonderfully with stats but when he matches up with someone who can hit his pitch it is awful. Theres no in between because he doesnt have a diversity of skills. I appreciate everything he does for this team. He just takes room away from building a roster for the other spots when Rudy eventually gets played off the floor in the playoffs.
He was never "played off the floor" so to speak during our last two playoff runs beating some very good teams.
If you want to complain that Luka hit a few shots over him from deep 3? He does that to every NBA player and it's not like Rudy makes 60 million either, he's nearly half that.
We're not restricted at all from paying a ton of other guys like Ant, Ju, Naz, Jaden, etc...
He's actually a little underpaid based on his production and the played off the floor narrative never happened. If you want to cry that the dynasty OKC and a Mavs Luka MVP level player hit shots over him then fine. OK, he's not superman. Though Lakers Luka got cooked by Rudy too, you have to acknowledge that as well. Hey we're 4 for 6 in playoff series with Rudy.
And Rudy actually grades out above avg as a perimeter defender (shot % against). I guess the argument could be he's away from the basket to rebound though, so that might be a positive for overall to have you shoot over him from 3.
Against Dallas and OKC look at the variance in his minutes as Finch was searching for answers. He was played off the floor. Happened in Utah too when they were searching for answers. He can be a great factor and then all the sudden cant find a rebound and will be a complete zero on offense. He was worth the trade, earned his contract, is a hall of famer. But hes also a one trick pony with huge holes in aspects of his game.
Some of it's were behind by 10 in some games and we need some 3P shooting to have any chance to come back so lets go with Naz over Rudy and gamble a bit (you kind of have to gamble at some point).
The whole played off the floor bit is a little silly imo and it's also not like he's a supermax 60 mill guy. Making 60 mill, OK I get it. But he's on a team friendly deal, he doesn't have to play every minute considering he's just making over Naz money.
I do agree that his play from game to game can be up and down, but so can Naz. So can Ju, So can Ant. If you want to be fair then call everyone out for losing.
He was never "played off the floor" so to speak during our last two playoff runs beating some very good teams.
If you want to complain that Luka hit a few shots over him from deep 3? He does that to every NBA player and it's not like Rudy makes 60 million either, he's nearly half that.
We're not restricted at all from paying a ton of other guys like Ant, Ju, Naz, Jaden, etc...
He's actually a little underpaid based on his production and the played off the floor narrative never happened. If you want to cry that the dynasty OKC and a Mavs Luka MVP level player hit shots over him then fine. OK, he's not superman. Though Lakers Luka got cooked by Rudy too, you have to acknowledge that as well. Hey we're 4 for 6 in playoff series with Rudy.
And Rudy actually grades out above avg as a perimeter defender (shot % against). I guess the argument could be he's away from the basket to rebound though, so that might be a positive for overall to have you shoot over him from 3.
Against Dallas and OKC look at the variance in his minutes as Finch was searching for answers. He was played off the floor. Happened in Utah too when they were searching for answers. He can be a great factor and then all the sudden cant find a rebound and will be a complete zero on offense. He was worth the trade, earned his contract, is a hall of famer. But hes also a one trick pony with huge holes in aspects of his game.
Defenders seem to get away with a lot on Rudy. If Rudy pushes someone in the back trying to rebound he always gets called for a foul, but if someone pushes him in the back it never gets called a foul. Defenders are constantly holding down Rudy's arms when boxing him out. It's why he often can only get one arm up trying to grab the boards.
We got blown off the court in game 5 against Dallas when he played just 26 minutes, other than that he averaged the same 34 minutes per game in the series that he averaged against Denver and Phoenix. The two OKC games we got blown out, he played lower minutes. Otherwise he played similar amount of minutes in the other 3 games that he played in the Lakers and Golden State series. Finch should always be able to adjust his lineups on the fly, if he has something working or if you need more offense because you're down, or more defense because you're up.
I didn't see your reply, I said the same thing. We get down by 10 or 15, you can't just play great defense anymore you need 3 pointers to comeback. So sure played off the floor because he doesn't shoot the 3P. I get it.
You also make great points on the refs, I'm watching the same replays and it's ridiculous at the banging Rudy takes and the grabbing (fouling) with nothing called. 100% the refs are biased.
Well I investigated my own question, and the results were interesting for sure.
First the starting lineup is still balling out
(Min)(Off)(Def)(Net)
(116)(125)(109)(+16.5)
Starters minus Ant plus Coney
(66)(127)(105)(+21.7)
Those are the two highest minutes 5 man lineups. Now all of the non Rudy 5 man line ups are at 20 minutes or less, so it's difficult to divine too much, but still encouraging stuff.
Conley/Randle/Naz/Jaden/Clark
(21)(120)(110)(+10)
Conley/Randle/Naz/Ant/Clark
(20)(118)(106)(+11.5)
Conley/Randle/Naz/Jaden/Dante
(13)(153)(92)(+51!)
The last lineup is obviously bonkers and certainly has outlier data but these help provide data points to the fact that the Naz/Randle pairing might not be completely devastating defensively as long as it's paired with at least two of our top three perimeter defenders.
Caveats apply regarding strength of competition as well, but I just want to point out that the wolves are the only ones beating up on cupcakes.
Here are the bottom 5 in SOS against
30. PHO
29. OKC
28. Dal
27. MIN
26. SA
25. Denver
Yeah, I'm trying not to look at the 5-man lineup combinations yet because the sample size is so small. But it makes sense that if you have Clark/Ant or Clark/Jaden or Ant/Jaden that the point-of-attack defense is going to help out with our lack of paint protection. And even Conley works his ass off out there defensively. I also think Naz has stepped up his game on both ends of late.
Just don't look at any combination with Dillingham in it! He is bleeding points on both ends I'm afraid.
Conversely, all the lineup data with Clark is outstanding! One the best 3 man lineups is Randle/Ant/Clark at +23.8 and a ridiculous 128 off rating
He was never "played off the floor" so to speak during our last two playoff runs beating some very good teams.
If you want to complain that Luka hit a few shots over him from deep 3? He does that to every NBA player and it's not like Rudy makes 60 million either, he's nearly half that.
We're not restricted at all from paying a ton of other guys like Ant, Ju, Naz, Jaden, etc...
He's actually a little underpaid based on his production and the played off the floor narrative never happened. If you want to cry that the dynasty OKC and a Mavs Luka MVP level player hit shots over him then fine. OK, he's not superman. Though Lakers Luka got cooked by Rudy too, you have to acknowledge that as well. Hey we're 4 for 6 in playoff series with Rudy.
And Rudy actually grades out above avg as a perimeter defender (shot % against). I guess the argument could be he's away from the basket to rebound though, so that might be a positive for overall to have you shoot over him from 3.
Against Dallas and OKC look at the variance in his minutes as Finch was searching for answers. He was played off the floor. Happened in Utah too when they were searching for answers. He can be a great factor and then all the sudden cant find a rebound and will be a complete zero on offense. He was worth the trade, earned his contract, is a hall of famer. But hes also a one trick pony with huge holes in aspects of his game.
Doper, There are indeed opponent lineup combinations where Rudy's defense is mitigated, like a spread offense where everyone can shoot and Rudy can't lurk off anyone in the paint. At that point his offensive limitations exceed his defensive strengths and it doesn't make sense to have him out there. But we win all those other minutes he IS in the game, including in the playoffs. Why can't we win the minutes he's on the bench? That's the real problem.
Go look at how many minutes Isaiah Hartenstein played in OKC's run. It was less than what he played per game in the regular season, that's for sure. Look at Brook Lopez's playoff minutes when Milwaukee won the title a few years ago. Or Myles Turner's minutes in Indiana's run to the Finals last season. And Brook and Myles can actually shoot, yet they STILL played less than 30 MPG in the playoffs. It's just not unusual for big Centers to sit more during the playoffs.
I think you're hitting my point on the head. Myles Turner and Brooks Lopez are getting paid like 6 or 7th men on their rosters. Brooks made 13mil the year they won the championship. Rudy is making almost 3x that. In my opinion, if you're paid like a top 3 player on your team, there should never be a lineup combination that can pull you out of a game. Rudy is obviously a conundrum, these conversations have been happening about him his whole career. I like the player, he does a lot for this team. I think we would be better suited to find a good defensive center who was a little more versatile and cheaper.
This is a great stat. My only argument is that he’s no longer Elite on D. He’s still pretty good. Nothing wrong with that
I thought Rudy had a poor start to the season. But he has been much more impactful in the month of November. We'll see if he can keep that going. While his FT% is down, he has shown a better aptitude for putting the ball in the basket without a dunk than we have seen since he's been here. And it something he focused on this offseason.
Against Dallas and OKC look at the variance in his minutes as Finch was searching for answers. He was played off the floor. Happened in Utah too when they were searching for answers. He can be a great factor and then all the sudden cant find a rebound and will be a complete zero on offense. He was worth the trade, earned his contract, is a hall of famer. But hes also a one trick pony with huge holes in aspects of his game.
Doper, There are indeed opponent lineup combinations where Rudy's defense is mitigated, like a spread offense where everyone can shoot and Rudy can't lurk off anyone in the paint. At that point his offensive limitations exceed his defensive strengths and it doesn't make sense to have him out there. But we win all those other minutes he IS in the game, including in the playoffs. Why can't we win the minutes he's on the bench? That's the real problem.
Go look at how many minutes Isaiah Hartenstein played in OKC's run. It was less than what he played per game in the regular season, that's for sure. Look at Brook Lopez's playoff minutes when Milwaukee won the title a few years ago. Or Myles Turner's minutes in Indiana's run to the Finals last season. And Brook and Myles can actually shoot, yet they STILL played less than 30 MPG in the playoffs. It's just not unusual for big Centers to sit more during the playoffs.
I think you're hitting my point on the head. Myles Turner and Brooks Lopez are getting paid like 6 or 7th men on their rosters. Brooks made 13mil the year they won the championship. Rudy is making almost 3x that. In my opinion, if you're paid like a top 3 player on your team, there should never be a lineup combination that can pull you out of a game. Rudy is obviously a conundrum, these conversations have been happening about him his whole career. I like the player, he does a lot for this team. I think we would be better suited to find a good defensive center who was a little more versatile and cheaper.
It's a fair point. We (and Utah before us) are basically paying him for playoff seeding, as he is a regular season monster in terms of driving winning. Then once in the playoffs, his limitations get magnified. Still....you can't just replace him with any old defensive Center and expect the same level of defense. It would have to be replace him with a defensive Center AND use the extra money to go get more defense off the bench. Easier said than done and whose to say those players won't have limitations as well?
A lot of good discussion here, but I probably should have titled this thread "The importance of getting Rudy involved in the offense". Based on a small sample size this season, we seem to have a better chance of winning when Rudy takes at least 7 shots. Mike is one of the few T-wolves who tries to get Rudy involved, so with him starting tonight, I expect the Wolves to go to 7-1 when Rudy takes 7 or more shots.
FNG wrote: ↑Wed Nov 19, 2025 6:40 pm
A lot of good discussion here, but I probably should have titled this thread "The importance of getting Rudy involved in the offense". Based on a small sample size this season, we seem to have a better chance of winning when Rudy takes at least 7 shots. Mike is one of the few T-wolves who tries to get Rudy involved, so with him starting tonight, I expect the Wolves to go to 7-1 when Rudy takes 7 or more shots.
Yeah, the fact Ant and Randle don't involve him more is not entirely Rudy's fault. In Utah he had Conley AND Ingles getting him the ball where he likes it. Yes, he fumbles the ball away more than a normal basketball player with two functioning hands should, but he is often in a position where the percentages favor him catching and dunking vs. a tough contested shot by Randle and Ant. I'll take the 75% play over the 50% play every time. Alas, I don't see that changing much despite Finch's exhortations.
