Wolves vs. Spurs

[rapsuperstar31]

Another interesting but kinda scary stat from a Spurs podcast yesterday: they were talking about Wemby having as much "gravity" as any player in the league, and as proof, they said almost every teammate shoots at least 3 percentage points better when he is on the court. That's a great example of making your teammates better.

With how mobile and coordinated he is for his size, it has to be very easy for him to pass it over people if he gets doubled.

[rapsuperstar31]

FNG probably won't care for this, because it's more an ANT promotional clip. But it does touch on some of the rehab he is doing. And Chris Hines says he's probably 1 to 2 weeks from a return.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iuas_58LUeY

Ha, no I loved it, thanks for posting! I especially liked his cute little girl in the car and him leaping over Gordon not seeming to even know he's there! Chris Hines isn't mentioned enough for the role he's played in Ant's development. I love the work he's putting in to return, but 1-2 weeks isn't very positive...one week has him returning for game 3, and if it's more time than that I don't think it's worth the risk of further injury.

I think you have me wrong, Tim...I think Ant might be the most charismatic guy in the league, and an amazing talent with an enormous upside that I hope he reaches someday. I just wish his 2-way analytic stats were deserving of the adoration we mostly have for him on this board and worthy of a top 10 reputation. I know almost this entire board would label the past three seasons "the Ant era". I think the Denver series is evidence it might be better described as the "Rudy/Finchy/TC" era...handling a team that closed the season with 11 straight wins with minimal contribution for our highest scorer (and missing 3 other rotation guys in the close out game!) is quite revealing.

I'm excited for Monday night, but missing at least our two most prolific 3-point shooters (plus maybe Ayo) against a team that is elite at protecting the rim makes this a very steep mountain to climb. I hate to say this, but I think the best we are likely to do is Spurs in 5. Like Q, I'm cheering for a miracle but mostly interested in how the supporting cast does as a prequel to next season.

But of course, I had the Nuggets in 5 also...

I'm sure Jokers advanced stats are among the best in the league still considered the best player in the world, how did that serve him in the playoffs? I worry about eye test with a player not advanced stats. My eye test said Ant was a bad defender in the regular season and he was good in the playoffs with a little more attention to it. My eye test said he was still really hurt in the playoffs offensely.

[Monster]

Randle should be primary on Wemby.

We win this series by shooting 48% from 14 feet and 39% from 3 and holding them to percentages below that.

Our ability to cover PNR with Fox/Wemby AND Fox/Castle will set the tone

Good analysis, Leado. The Spurs podcasters also talked about the Fox/Wemby 2 man game and especially the dribble handoff. But oddly enough, they generally do it opposite of how the Wolves do it with Rudy and Ant. Fox is the screener, with the intention of getting Wemby downhill...very tough to defend.

I don't disagree with the Randle suggestion, but I don't think Rudy can ignore Castle beyond the arc. Castle made 41% of his threes on 5.4 attempts per game with Clingen daring him to shoot.

Castle made them in that series and it looks like had a good series overall but maybe he goes back to not shooting the 3 well and takes fewer of them. I'm not advocating for that strategy but when game planning for a team you have to give up something. I doubt the Wolves are gonna be game planning for Castle's 3 point shooting. I'd guess they are more likely to be saying we can give that up and if he beats us so be it.

[FNG]

Randle should be primary on Wemby.

We win this series by shooting 48% from 14 feet and 39% from 3 and holding them to percentages below that.

Our ability to cover PNR with Fox/Wemby AND Fox/Castle will set the tone

Good analysis, Leado. The Spurs podcasters also talked about the Fox/Wemby 2 man game and especially the dribble handoff. But oddly enough, they generally do it opposite of how the Wolves do it with Rudy and Ant. Fox is the screener, with the intention of getting Wemby downhill...very tough to defend.

I don't disagree with the Randle suggestion, but I don't think Rudy can ignore Castle beyond the arc. Castle made 41% of his threes on 5.4 attempts per game with Clingen daring him to shoot.

Castle made them in that series and it looks like had a good series overall but maybe he goes back to not shooting the 3 well and takes fewer of them. I'm not advocating for that strategy but when game planning for a team you have to give up something. I doubt the Wolves are gonna be game planning for Castle's 3 point shooting. I'd guess they are more likely to be saying we can give that up and if he beats us so be it.

Good point, monster. The Spurs made 42% of their 3's in the playoffs, but only 36% over a much larger full season sample size. That's a big difference. Which Spurs team shows up will be critical.

[Q-is-here]

Randle should be primary on Wemby.

We win this series by shooting 48% from 14 feet and 39% from 3 and holding them to percentages below that.

Our ability to cover PNR with Fox/Wemby AND Fox/Castle will set the tone

Good analysis, Leado. The Spurs podcasters also talked about the Fox/Wemby 2 man game and especially the dribble handoff. But oddly enough, they generally do it opposite of how the Wolves do it with Rudy and Ant. Fox is the screener, with the intention of getting Wemby downhill...very tough to defend.

I don't disagree with the Randle suggestion, but I don't think Rudy can ignore Castle beyond the arc. Castle made 41% of his threes on 5.4 attempts per game with Clingen daring him to shoot.

Castle made them in that series and it looks like had a good series overall but maybe he goes back to not shooting the 3 well and takes fewer of them. I'm not advocating for that strategy but when game planning for a team you have to give up something. I doubt the Wolves are gonna be game planning for Castle's 3 point shooting. I'd guess they are more likely to be saying we can give that up and if he beats us so be it.

Unfortunately he's been shooting them well since February and over 42% in March and April. I had been hoping this was just a small sample size playoff series and he'd eventually regress to the mean. Well, his mean is pretty good over the past few months!

[FNG]

Good analysis, Leado. The Spurs podcasters also talked about the Fox/Wemby 2 man game and especially the dribble handoff. But oddly enough, they generally do it opposite of how the Wolves do it with Rudy and Ant. Fox is the screener, with the intention of getting Wemby downhill...very tough to defend.

I don't disagree with the Randle suggestion, but I don't think Rudy can ignore Castle beyond the arc. Castle made 41% of his threes on 5.4 attempts per game with Clingen daring him to shoot.

Castle made them in that series and it looks like had a good series overall but maybe he goes back to not shooting the 3 well and takes fewer of them. I'm not advocating for that strategy but when game planning for a team you have to give up something. I doubt the Wolves are gonna be game planning for Castle's 3 point shooting. I'd guess they are more likely to be saying we can give that up and if he beats us so be it.

Unfortunately he's been shooting them well since February and over 42% in March and April. I had been hoping this was just a small sample size playoff series and he'd eventually regress to the mean. Well, his mean is pretty good over the past few months!

Ouch! More evidence of Wemby's gravity, as he missed a lot of games early in the season but not many after the break.

[Q-is-here]

The biggest difference between the Spurs and Denver offensively is that the Spurs have multiple guys that can beat you - their offense is more diversified. Jaden and Rudy pretty much solved the Jokic/Murray two-man game. It was a stunning success and Denver had no other answers.

The Spurs have a bunch of guys that can make shots and just keep improving (the aforementioned Castle being one of them). In fact, Wemby will likely play ~ 34 MPG, leaving more time for "non-Wemby" minutes as compared to "non-Jokic" minutes.

We need to hope that we get a generous playoff whistle, as to me the only way we beat these guys is to out-physical them. Shove them, grab them, set hard screens, foul them hard, impose our size advantage, etc. Once you get past Wemby and Kornet they are not a big team.

[AussieWolf3]

The biggest difference between the Spurs and Denver offensively is that the Spurs have multiple guys that can beat you - their offense is more diversified. Jaden and Rudy pretty much solved the Jokic/Murray two-man game. It was a stunning success and Denver had no other answers.

The Spurs have a bunch of guys that can make shots and just keep improving (the aforementioned Castle being one of them). In fact, Wemby will likely play ~ 34 MPG, leaving more time for "non-Wemby" minutes as compared to "non-Jokic" minutes.

We need to hope that we get a generous playoff whistle, as to me the only way we beat these guys is to out-physical them. Shove them, grab them, set hard screens, foul them hard, impose our size advantage, etc. Once you get past Wemby and Kornet they are not a big team.

I'm not sure that's the only real hope to beat them, but you are right about their diversified offense --- there are just a lot of places they can score from.

I'm curious, they had the 4th best ORTG this season, but how were they in the half court vs transition?

Another interesting difference in this series vs Denver is that the Wolves were able to kill Denver on the glass because Denver stopped staying in for offense rebounds because of fear of getting run on. Minnesota doesn't have the kind of athletic edge over SA, and they'll be able to play things a little more straight up in transition

[Coolbreeze44]

The way I took the Doctor's 1-2 week timeline was from the date of injury. I could be wrong but I expect Ant in game 3.

[kekgeek]

Ant has been listed as Q for tomorrow