Minnesota Sports Forum

Yeah, this may be an unpopular take, but I'd move both Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco this winter for a massive return -- including MLB-ready youngsters.

Buxton is a phenomenal talent, but he cannot stay healthy and that severely limits his value. He will always be a terrific performer when he plays. The problem is that it's only for half of the season. He's played more than 100 games just once in his career and it came back in 2017. You can't, or rather you shouldn't, invest $100-million or more into that kind of player.

Polanco has been one of my favorite Twins for several seasons now. I love what he provides at the dish with his discipline and sudden power stroke. Not many second basemen can give you 30 homers and near 100 RBI in a season. Not to mention, he's locked into an incredibly team-friendly contract through 2023. But his value will probably never be higher and the Twins will not be contenders next year, in my opinion. I think this would be the best time to move him for a great package of prospects.

Like I've said in the past, I'd also look to move Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano, and Max Kepler -- the three highest paid players on the payroll. I think the first two still have legitimate value around the league thanks to their improved play in the second half. Kepler's value has bottomed out. Maybe you keep him for 2022 with hopes of a rebound season so you can then move him at the deadline. That would probably be my strategy.

I think the Twins should sign a number of perceived risky free agents this winter to one-year contracts with the intent of boosting their value so they can move them at the deadline. Use 2022 as a stepping stone to make that real leap in 2023 when the youngsters are seasoned and have gone through some growing pains. The farm would be reloaded -- possibly one of the best in baseball. And the payroll would be clean so that they could go on a spending spree in what looks to be a very promising free agent pool. All eyes would be on 2023 for the Twins.

Is there a board monitor here? If so, I'm asking him (her) to remove Cam's post above before Falvey and Levine give even a moment of thought to trading Byron Buxton ;-) ! I come down on Jester's side on this discussion...Buxton's impact on the game is unique, and we just aren't the same team without him. I don't have the stats in front of me, but the Twins have something like a .667 winning percentage on nights Buck plays, and are under .500 on nights he doesn't.

Yes, there's the injury thing. It's a problem. But I would argue that the nature of his injuries has changed. Rather than something like a recurring hamstring issue, Buck missed a lot of games this season because of a 94 MPH rising fastball that veered in on and fractured his hand...that could have happened to anyone, and I put it in the category of bad luck rather than injury prone. 2021 just seemed like a different year for Buck with his newfound power and lack of missed games because of injuries that are likely to recur. For the first time in years, I wouldn't be shocked if Byron plays 140 games next season, and if he does (and Jim Pohlad opens his wallet for two starting pitchers, this team will be playing a lot of baseball next October,

Pay the man, and don't think about trading him!

I agree with Cam's plan, but I would want to try and do 2 or 3 year contracts with last year being team options. I have no problem with paying Buxton and company, but if you can load up the farm system with MLB-ready players we should do it. I even have no problem going cheap next offseason as long as they get agreement from the Pohlad's this money will be used for a future year.

https://www.startribune.com/royce-lewis-isnt-ready-so-jorge-polanco-should-return-to-twins-shortstop/600103985/?refresh=true

Camden0916 wrote:Yeah, this may be an unpopular take, but I'd move both Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco this winter for a massive return -- including MLB-ready youngsters.

Buxton is a phenomenal talent, but he cannot stay healthy and that severely limits his value. He will always be a terrific performer when he plays. The problem is that it's only for half of the season. He's played more than 100 games just once in his career and it came back in 2017. You can't, or rather you shouldn't, invest $100-million or more into that kind of player.

Polanco has been one of my favorite Twins for several seasons now. I love what he provides at the dish with his discipline and sudden power stroke. Not many second basemen can give you 30 homers and near 100 RBI in a season. Not to mention, he's locked into an incredibly team-friendly contract through 2023. But his value will probably never be higher and the Twins will not be contenders next year, in my opinion. I think this would be the best time to move him for a great package of prospects.

Like I've said in the past, I'd also look to move Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano, and Max Kepler -- the three highest paid players on the payroll. I think the first two still have legitimate value around the league thanks to their improved play in the second half. Kepler's value has bottomed out. Maybe you keep him for 2022 with hopes of a rebound season so you can then move him at the deadline. That would probably be my strategy.

I think the Twins should sign a number of perceived risky free agents this winter to one-year contracts with the intent of boosting their value so they can move them at the deadline. Use 2022 as a stepping stone to make that real leap in 2023 when the youngsters are seasoned and have gone through some growing pains. The farm would be reloaded -- possibly one of the best in baseball. And the payroll would be clean so that they could go on a spending spree in what looks to be a very promising free agent pool. All eyes would be on 2023 for the Twins.

I'm not against trading either or both of UC ton or Polonco assuming the value in the return is there. I think one problem with dealing everyone for young players is that at some point just like in any sport you can only have so many prospects. You only have to look to 2021 season to see that the Twins had some nice players in their system that weren't highly regarded (Baddoo Miranda) and there could be players like that which would end up elsewhere because of all the prospects the Twins would get. I know Cam wasn't looking to completely bottom out as he wanted some major league ready guys but I still think there is only so many spots throughout the organization. If the Twins could trade for future draft picks that would be a different calculus.

I think whether it makes sense to sign Buxton depends on the price. If the Twins are spending say 100 million and getting him locked in for less than that in actual guaranteed money while also possibly getting him for a crazy good deal if he somehow stays healthy? It might be worth the risk. He is crazy valuable and while I don't hold out too much hope of his staying healthy FNG does make a point that he has had some bad luck too. It seems like some people that are injury prone also seem to have some that bad luck go with them. I knew an entire family like that. It seems like they were always hurt and they were all reasonably coordinated people the son was actually a pretty good athlete.

To put it stat wise on what Buxton did this year.

If he plays only 4 months of the season like he did his WAR days worth 20-25 million a year. My point even injured he's been worth that contract.

I also don't think you can get the haul you would want for only one year of control. This is why we got so much for Berrios.

I actually would say Polanco probably is worth more trade value wise because of his contract.

I don't disagree with Monster that, even as dominant as he can be, I would trade Buxton if the return was very good. For instance, I don't think anyone would turn down the Angels if they offered Trout and Ohtani (which of course they wouldn't). My stance is nobody is untouchable for the right price. Heck, changing over to basketball, even KAT goes for the right price...say Gobert and Mitchell (I know...again not going to happen). The point is there are certain players who are closer to untouchable than others, and Buck, like KAT, is in that group for me. I'm not trading him for prospects, only proven stars. He's that special in my opinion.

Polanco on the other hand might be a classic "sell high" move. Does anyone think he has any more seasons like this left in him? Someone might love a 35-homer switch hitting 2b guy and would be willing to over pay. With Arraez more than ready to step in everyday at 2b, I'd take that overpay.

Good point on Polanco. Is it better to get prospects during the offseason or season?

Guys, Byron Buxton just doesn't suit up enough to be worth the $100-million or more he's going to command in his new contract. The season is 162 games long. Buxton has averaged 54 games a season over the last four years. I'll note that the 2020 season was only 60 games long for the sake of being fair, but that's still a horrendous amount of games missed. Buxton played in a miserable 39.3-percent of games in that stretch.

The following is Minnesota's record year-by-year in games Buxton played in. That includes games he pinch hit, pinch run, or was a defensive substitution.

2018: 14-14
2019: 62-25
2020: 26-13
2021: 30-31

Does the guy impact winning when he plays? You bet your ass he does. That four-year record is 132-83 (.614), which is significant.

Here's Minnesota's record during those four years when Buxton does NOT play.

2018: 64-70
2019: 39-36
2020: 10-11
2021: 43-58

That's a cumulative record of 156-175 (.471). Let's do some quick math here using those figures.

If Buxton were to up his average games played from 54 to 100 (!) over the next four years -- or the remainder of his prime -- this is how the Twins would fare on a statistical projection based on the last four years worth of data above.

62-38 when he plays, 29-33 when he doesn't. That's a 91-71 record, which wasn't good enough to win the AL Central or claim a Wild Card spot in any of the last four years. And that's with Buxton drinking a magical elixir that allows him to stay healthy for a season in a way that he's done only one time in his entire career (2017).

The guy just can't stay on the field enough, which means he's not as valuable as he should/could be, and we're being blinded by how excellent he is when he does play if we think he's worth investing $100-million or more into. He can't contribute to winning baseball when he's on the bench or at home for just under two-thirds of the season.

Camden0916 wrote:Guys, Byron Buxton just doesn't suit up enough to be worth the $100-million or more he's going to command in his new contract. The season is 162 games long. Buxton has averaged 54 games a season over the last four years. I'll note that the 2020 season was only 60 games long for the sake of being fair, but that's still a horrendous amount of games missed. Buxton played in a miserable 39.3-percent of games in that stretch.

The following is Minnesota's record year-by-year in games Buxton played in. That includes games he pinch hit, pinch run, or was a defensive substitution.

2018: 14-14
2019: 62-25
2020: 26-13
2021: 30-31

Does the guy impact winning when he plays? You bet your ass he does. That four-year record is 132-83 (.614), which is significant.

Here's Minnesota's record during those four years when Buxton does NOT play.

2018: 64-70
2019: 39-36
2020: 10-11
2021: 43-58

That's a cumulative record of 156-175 (.471). Let's do some quick math here using those figures.

If Buxton were to up his average games played from 54 to 100 (!) over the next four years -- or the remainder of his prime -- this is how the Twins would fare on a statistical projection based on the last four years worth of data above.

62-38 when he plays, 29-33 when he doesn't. That's a 91-71 record, which wasn't good enough to win the AL Central or claim a Wild Card spot in any of the last four years. And that's with Buxton drinking a magical elixir that allows him to stay healthy for a season in a way that he's done only one time in his entire career (2017).

The guy just can't stay on the field enough, which means he's not as valuable as he should/could be, and we're being blinded by how excellent he is when he does play if we think he's worth investing $100-million or more into. He can't contribute to winning baseball when he's on the bench or at home for just under two-thirds of the season.

I'm sorry but one you can't compare 2018-2019. Buxton to player he's become in 2020 and 2021.

1 point of WAR is worth 4-5 million dollars on average

I understand it's hard to look past the injuries but even injured he's outperforming his contract.
Buxton in 61 games had a 4.5 war which would come out to 22.5 million per season.

I'm not saying you want him to only play 61 games but his value in those 61 games he did play is 22.5 million dollars.

So he played only 37 percent of the season say he plays 80 percent of the games. He would have WAR somewhere to the 8-9 which we're talking MVP Type years.

Which means he be getting paid 35-40 million per year contract based on his production.

So Cam yes I'm telling you that 20 million a year is good value for this Injured riddle version of Buxton. If he was free agent today he would get 20-25 mil per year from someone.