Minnesota Sports Forum

I'm not saying Byron Buxton's agent won't be able to get him $20-million or more annually. Hell, he might even be able to justify it like you did with a single statistic like Wins Above Replacement. But in terms of winning and losing over the course of a 162-game season, and building a contender, you simply can't invest that much money into a guy that misses over half of the season. The wins won't add up and you'll realize that money was better invested into someone who plays 130 games or more. WAR means little when the guy is sitting on the bench for 100-plus games each year.

Edit: Jester, if Buxton played 80-percent of games he would definitely be an MVP player, agreed, but that's also happened literally one time in his career back in 2017. It'd be an absolute miracle at this point if he played that many games. The guy is a stud when he plays. The problem is that if you're building a playoff team, you need your best guys in the lineup damn near everyday. Buxton isn't that guy.

Camden0916 wrote:I'm not saying Byron Buxton's agent won't be able to get him $20-million or more annually. Hell, he might even be able to justify it like you did with a single statistic like Wins Above Replacement. But in terms of winning and losing over the course of a 162-game season, and building a contender, you simply can't invest that much money into a guy that misses over half of the season. The wins won't add up and you'll realize that money was better invested into someone who plays 130 games or more. WAR means little when the guy is sitting on the bench for 100-plus games each year.

Edit: Jester, if Buxton played 80-percent of games he would definitely be an MVP player, agreed, but that's also happened literally one time in his career back in 2017. It'd be an absolute miracle at this point if he played that many games. The guy is a stud when he plays. The problem is that if you're building a playoff team, you need your best guys in the lineup damn near everyday. Buxton isn't that guy.

Yes and that season Buxton was told to bunt and hit singles by Molitor. He's not even close to same player.

I understand Basketball doesn't have this type of stat that weighted on heavily. but WAR is really important stat that weighs heavy in every front office I ever been a part of.

In a injured fill year but he just had 3-4 months of greatest MLB's highest slugging percentage by a center fielder in the past 50 years with 250 plate appearances:

.674 -- Ken Griffey Jr., 1994
.647 -- Byron Buxton, 2021
.646 -- Ken Griffey Jr., 1997
.645 -- Mike Trout, 2019

My question for you is what would you do with the money you get for not spending 20 million on him and who is the replacement center fielder?

Here's my scenario say we trade Buxton and not sign him to 20 milll.

We need starting pitching right. I think we all agree Hin Jin Ryu was on Twins radar before they signed Donaldson he got 20 mil per year and had WAR 1.7 this year. So to get equal value back you would need to find a trade that gets you a WAR player in centerfield of 2.8 or higher just back to what Buxton is worth for this version of Buxton. This would be. Player like Kevin Kerimaier of the Rays.

But what if he does stay healthy???

If he's healthy then you got replace 6.7 worth of WAR which would be Vlad Jr this year.

Im sorry I rather have the chance at Vlad Guerrero JR Then Ryu and Kiermaier.

I bring up Kiermaier because rumors in my circles rays wanted Buxton for Kiermaier and prospects and Twins turned it down.

Jester, I'm glad you asked about where that money should be reallocated. Like I've said several times earlier in this thread, my approach would be aimed at 2023 as the year to hop back into contention, but there are players available this off-season and next worth pursuing.

I could take that $20-million and use it towards one of the following free agents the next couple winters:

- Carlos Correa
- Nolan's Arenado
- Trevor Story
- Javier Baez
- Nicholas Castellanos
- Xander Bogaerts
- Aaron Nola
- Jose Ramirez
- Andrew Benintendi

Note: Some of the aforementioned names will command more than $20-million annually, but I would use that Buxton money towards signing one of them.

I could also break that toys up and bolster my bullpen. I could also argue that by not giving Buxton that money that by year two of that deal I'd have $40-million of unused money that I could then use in the following off-season, which is key because my eyes are on 2023. The options aren't that limited when it comes to fielding a competitive team, but smart money is key. And I don't think it's smart to have $20-million of your payroll wrapped up in a guy that won't be on the field for half of the season. It just doesn't work out in my mind.

Jester, note that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. played in 161 games this year for Toronto. Sure, if Byron Buxton could play in that many games, he'd likely be in the MVP discussion...

But if my aunt had balls, then she'd be my uncle. It's just not going to happen.

Camden0916 wrote:Jester, note that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. played in 161 games this year for Toronto. Sure, if Byron Buxton could play in that many games, he'd likely be in the MVP discussion...

But if my aunt had balls, then she'd be my uncle. It's just not going to happen.

My point is you giving up the chance to have something better than Vlad to have two above average players.

At end of the day I rather take the risk that he will play full seasons and you don't. We won't change each other mind on it.

My other point was to show when he does play he's top 5 player in the league. I'm sorry I think you have to take the gamble if your the Twins.

Camden0916 wrote:Jester, I'm glad you asked about where that money should be reallocated. Like I've said several times earlier in this thread, my approach would be aimed at 2023 as the year to hop back into contention, but there are players available this off-season and next worth pursuing.

I could take that $20-million and use it towards one of the following free agents the next couple winters:

- Carlos Correa
- Nolan's Arenado
- Trevor Story
- Javier Baez
- Nicholas Castellanos
- Xander Bogaerts
- Aaron Nola
- Jose Ramirez
- Andrew Benintendi

Note: Some of the aforementioned names will command more than $20-million annually, but I would use that Buxton money towards signing one of them.

I could also break that toys up and bolster my bullpen. I could also argue that by not giving Buxton that money that by year two of that deal I'd have $40-million of unused money that I could then use in the following off-season, which is key because my eyes are on 2023. The options aren't that limited when it comes to fielding a competitive team, but smart money is key. And I don't think it's smart to have $20-million of your payroll wrapped up in a guy that won't be on the field for half of the season. It just doesn't work out in my mind.

I don't understand this 2023 plan.

The central is still there for taking. The white Sox are going to lose Gilito and Rodon and even with them they only win 93 games.

The Twins literally lost there top 9-10 starting pitcher options coming into the season. No team can withstand that.

Maeda injured early, came back got back to normal then surgery
Berrios traded
Pineda hurt most of year
Happ ineffective traded
Shoemaker hurt and released
Dobnak hurt all year
Smeltzer hurt all year
Duran shut down for most of the summer
Thorpe injured and ineffective

The only good part is we found out Joe Ryan and Ober look like answers in the back end. I would sign Pineda to be a stabilizer because he finally look like himself at end of the year.

Find 2 guys that can stabilize the top with the 40-60 million dollars to spend.

You don't need DH you have Sano or Doanldson. It's time to see what the Twins Minor league player Miranda can due at third base.

Let's be honest if they resign Pineda which I'm about 95% they will.

They need to fill
2 starting pitching spots (I give 23 per year to Stroman and 10-12 million to Grenkie on two year deal)

Short stop (Just sign Simmons a 1 year 2-3 mil to fill in till Lewis or Martin are ready or trade deadline)

3 bullpen arms you got 15 million which is more than enough.

In my opinion, that team would maybe win 85 games, Jester. I just don't see a path to contention next year with the same lineup brought back and a makeshift rotation that will be missing Kenta Maeda. That's why I'm willing to punt next year and collect assets with the mindset of being aggressive heading into 2023. We'd have plenty of money to spend, a deep/loaded farm, and our youngsters would have another grooming season. That's where the new window would start for me. This core as constructed just can't get it done for multiple reasons and some of them you alluded to.

So what is the best time to trade vets? In the offseason or in season?

I think you have more trade partners in the offseason, but during the season you have teams that might be more desperate.

So thoughts on the timing of moves for the rebuild?

bleedspeed177 wrote:So what is the best time to trade vets? In the offseason or in season?

I think you have more trade partners in the offseason, but during the season you have teams that might be more desperate.

So thoughts on the timing of moves for the rebuild?

Bleed, I'd look to move Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Josh Donaldson, and Mitch Garver this winter. I think they'd all have teams interested in them and the returns would be decent to excellent.

I'd look to deal Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, and Taylor Rogers at or near next year's trade deadline. That also includes whatever stopgap starters or relievers the Twins sign this winter that may have value at that time -- the Hansel Robles types.

Camden0916 wrote:

bleedspeed177 wrote:So what is the best time to trade vets? In the offseason or in season?

I think you have more trade partners in the offseason, but during the season you have teams that might be more desperate.

So thoughts on the timing of moves for the rebuild?

Bleed, I'd look to move Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Josh Donaldson, and Mitch Garver this winter. I think they'd all have teams interested in them and the returns would be decent to excellent.

I'd look to deal Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, and Taylor Rogers at or near next year's trade deadline. That also includes whatever stopgap starters or relievers the Twins sign this winter that may have value at that time -- the Hansel Robles types.

Its all about the contracts

I'm going to use the cubs as example with each of our players.

You would get more for Buxton in the offseason because then the team would get 162 games from him instead of only 40. Look what the Cubs got for Kris Bryant they got the giants #10 prospect.

As for Polanco he better trade at deadline because of his controlled years. This is why we got so much for Berrios because he had another year of control. This is the cubs trading Kimbrel with year left on his contract. They got Madrigal who at one time was the white sox #3 prospect and hard throwing Codi Heuer