Page 6 of 22
Re: Jim Mora playoffs thread
Posted: Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:20 pm
by FNG
AbeVigodaLive wrote:FNG wrote:Here's some red meat from Jon K for the "doom and gloom" guys here...this might push you guys a little further out on the ledge!
https://theathletic.com/4218285/2023/02/17/nba-timberwolves-mike-conley/?source=weeklyemail&campaign=602288
A tragic 4th quarter led to our 6th straight loss to the Wizards during a period where they have not exactly been a dominant team. I'm going to give the Wolves a pass on this one though. Conley's comments after the game were telling...he said he was emotionally and physically drained after the turmoil of the post-trade week. Anybody here who either had or has young kids (and Conley has three...two in school) has to understand how having to uproot your family and make plans for a move to a new city can be draining. We can choose to mock him for that statement, or take him at face value and assume we will have a much more energized and focused Mike Conley after the break. In any event, we needed his leadership when the Wizards switched to a zone in the 4th, and instead the ball seemed to be in SloMo's or Ant's hands most of the quarter...and SloMo's missed 2 footers and Ant's turnovers didn't help. I'm not at all holding Conley faultless though...he needs to step up and right the ship when it's floundering, and he didn't. But I'm going to accept his reasons for his poor 4th quarter and look forward to better games.
I can't help but wonder if you would be so forgiving to D. Russell after he had a rough +/- night... other circumstances be damned.
[Note: One of the hazards of selling the farm is (1) what to do with Russell's contract (2) and if you choose to trade him, (3) accepting that the new guy is going to take time to gel with new teammates even though the team can't really risk any more losses. I don't blame Conley for his slow beginning in Minnesota. This entire season is on Tim Connelly... whether it ends well or embarrassingly terrible... it's all on him.]
First of all Abe, Conley was only a -3 in that game despite not scoring a single point. I might have organized a parade for DLo if he ever had an on/off number that good!
But you don't need to wonder...of course I would not be as forgiving of Russell if he had a poor night as I am of Conley! Conley has demonstrated throughout his career that he is a winner who makes his teammates better (the win-loss record of the teams he has played on is extraordinary, despite the fact he has always played on very small market teams), so I'm more likely to cut him some slack when he has a bad game like the last one...and going 0-6 from the field is definitely a bad game. But I'm not nearly as forgiving about a bad game from a guy whose teams have regularly throughout his entire career performed better when he was off the court than when he was on. My forgiveness has its limits...
Re: Jim Mora playoffs thread
Posted: Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:11 pm
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
I'm enjoying the hypocrisy and overall inconsistency, actually. It's very telling.
Re: Jim Mora playoffs thread
Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2023 9:31 am
by FNG
Two of the teams I forecast missing the playin faced off last night, and Utah beat the thunder. OkC played the first of 10 consecutive west conference playoff of playoff bubble teams, so they have a lot of control over their destiny. They are a good team, but quite young, so I still think they will be one of three pretty good west teams not making the playoffs. Tough one tonight against the Suns.
Re: Jim Mora playoffs thread
Posted: Sat Feb 25, 2023 8:25 am
by FNG
Tim is climbing the Andes Mountains, so KOM updates may be infrequent during this key portion of the season. So I will try to step in with my playoff analysis per my spreadsheet.
The last two games were "projected wins" on anyone's spreadsheet, and the losses dropped the Wolves from a projected 42 wins (and a 6th place finish) to 40 wins and a tie with OkC for 10th place...and if there's a silver lining, we have the tiebreaker. 40 wins puts us in the play in, but forces us to perhaps win two road games against Golden State and the loser of Lakers/Pelicans for the right to play the 3rd seed...a tough row to hoe. But it's clear that none of the seven teams battling for the play in tournament is running away from the pack (all 7 teams are good, but not "that" good)...this is going to go right down to the wire. And the best we can hope for is some of the 2021-2 luck that Q has talked about and a return of KAT before mid-March. If that happens, there is still hope for a play in home game. Disappointing, but that's where things stand right now.
Re: Jim Mora playoffs thread
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2023 6:40 am
by FNG
With the caveat that the LeBron injury may be overstated, it likely is quite helpful to the Wolves' chances. I currently project them to have three more wins than the Wolves, but I see at least three games I projected the Lakers to win that I now think they will lose without LeBron...including the game this Friday against us.
Also, our loss to Charlotte last week continues to not look so bad as they are one of the hottest teams in the Association. They easily won their 5th game in a row last night, and have proven that their bad injury luck this year prevented them from a pretty good season. Unfortunately Ball is likely out for the season after breaking his ankle last night.
Re: Jim Mora playoffs thread
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2023 6:37 pm
by Q-is-here
The loss to the Wizards before the ASB broke me. That was the final straw in terms of my confidence in this team's ability to make a decent run this season, as every single time it looks like they could get on a roll, they have a terrible loss. That one was it for me.
Re: Jim Mora playoffs thread
Posted: Wed Mar 01, 2023 7:47 am
by FNG
Q-was-here wrote:The loss to the Wizards before the ASB broke me. That was the final straw in terms of my confidence in this team's ability to make a decent run this season, as every single time it looks like they could get on a roll, they have a terrible loss. That one was it for me.
Q, are you a little less broken after that great win in LA :cool: ?
Actually as I re-read your post, I see you're not necessarily saying the Wolves don't make the playoffs (I'm with post-game Jamal Crawford who says the Wolves make it), just that they won't make a decent run. Without a significant contribution from KAT, I have to agree with you. But we've seen teams have a star come back right before the playoffs and turn their season around, and I'm still holding out hope for that.
I don't know if Tim is keeping his KOM up to date while he's climbing the Andes, but last night had four games that made me change my win totals, and they all went in favor of the Wolves...great night! I've been saying for a couple weeks that OkC, Utah and Portland are the three contenders that are going to be left out, and I now have the Wolves with at least a 2-win cushion over both...and a win against the Lakers (which I'm expecting) will make that 3. I know it's not the consensus opinion here, but I see the Wolves as a lock for at least the play in if they beat the Lakers.
Re: Jim Mora playoffs thread
Posted: Wed Mar 01, 2023 9:51 am
by FNG
Further with respect to our playoff chances, 538.com has the Wolves at exactly the wins total I'm projecting...41. And they also have the same three teams as I do missing the playoffs, OkC, Utah and Portland. But they have us finishing tied with the Lakers for 8th (and winning the tiebreaker, assuring us a home play in game...or 2 if needed) rather than 10th where I have us. The difference is they have adjusted their projection for a multi-week LBJ absence, and they have the Pelicans collapsing. I think their forecast is probably more accurate than mine.
Is there anyone here who still thinks we don't at least make the play in?
Re: Jim Mora playoffs thread
Posted: Wed Mar 01, 2023 10:08 am
by Carlos Danger
FNG wrote:Further with respect to our playoff chances, 538.com has the Wolves at exactly the wins total I'm projecting...41. And they also have the same three teams as I do missing the playoffs, OkC, Utah and Portland. But they have us finishing tied with the Lakers for 8th (and winning the tiebreaker, assuring us a home play in game...or 2 if needed) rather than 10th where I have us. The difference is they have adjusted their projection for a multi-week LBJ absence, and they have the Pelicans collapsing. I think their forecast is probably more accurate than mine.
Is there anyone here who still thinks we don't at least make the play in?
I've been predicting about .500 for about the last month now. I do feel they will need some KAT to maintain that due to the tough remaining road games. But yeah, as soon as many want to throw in the towel, they pull them back in with a nice win. And as soon as we start to believe, they lose to a bottom dweller. That's been the season in a nutshell and why they are around .500 all year long.
Re: Jim Mora playoffs thread
Posted: Wed Mar 01, 2023 12:59 pm
by Phenom
AD sitting tonight vs Thunder. Makes me wonder why they wouldn't sit him vs Grizz last night instead. Unless he is legitimately hurt again which wouldn't be surprising. The narrative that the Lakers are a threat (to anybody) didn't last long.