WildWolf2813 wrote:Get Montero and groom him to replace D'Lo. Otherwise, get used to having D'Lo here for a long time.
You mean there are literally NO other options?
I think we have a year or so to figure out the PG slot and nothing has to be done this offseason.
I don't think they can go into next offseason completely reliant on a rookie PG in a weaker draft class to elevate this team.
In reality the best FA PG for next summer is on our roster and that's D'Lo.
Entering next off-season with D'Lo out the door, J-Mac as our only PG and this team having to pray Caleb Love or someone like that becomes THE guy at PG immediately is a treacherous scenario.
But is he, WW? I like DLo and would not be devastated if we couldn't move him this summer. But my dream would still be that some team out there values him like some on this board do, and trades us a starting PF, and then we sign the local boy to be our starting PG at a much cheaper price tag. Look at the comparative stats for DLo and Tyus last season:
DLo will always be a higher volume scorer than Tyus, but I'll take the cheaper guy by almost every other measure. Better offensive rating, better defensive rating, much better A:TO ratio, better 3-point accuracy, better WS and Ws/48, better eFG%, better BPM, better rebounder per 36 minutes. Other than PPG, I can't find an important measure in which DLo had a better season than Tyus. And for those who see Tyus as a backup rather than a starter, his record as a starter filling in for Ja was nothing short of spectacular...he shines in a starter role.
I get that DLo is a much better shot creator (although he has never been an efficient scorer), but with high-volume guys like Ant and KAT in the starting lineup, we don't need shot creation...we need a facilitator. And defenses need to respect Tyus beyond the arc now with his 39% 3-point stat, so he provides spacing also in addition to being an excellent facilitator and elite ball-protector. And the defensive gap between the two is immense.
So if PPG is the measure, DLo is the best free agent PG out there. But it's difficult to make a case for him over Jones if you dig into the stats deeper
Tyus definitely checks a lot of the boxes in terms of the type of PG we need next to KAT and Ant. The other guy I'd throw out there with a higher risk/reward factor is Victor Oladipo. Hell, he's not even a true PG, but I feel like he has enough vet experience and play making experience to essentially fill that role with a bunch of half court sets still being run through Ant and KAT. Both these guys are realistic alternatives in my opinion that could happen THIS offseason.
We don't know how things will shake out through the rest of the league over the next year, but I just don't believe that our ONLY option at PG is the draft, which is the way Wildwolf is positioning things. Opportunities may arise at the trade deadline or next offseason as well.
I agree with FNG and Q. The draft isn't our only option to replace DLO at PG. In fact, it's probably our worst option given the uncertainty surrounding a relatively mediocre group of PG prospects likely to be available at 19 or below. If we trade DLO for player, it should be for a big. Otherwise, I could see trading him to move way up from 19 in the draft with sort-term salary filler in return. In either case, I like the idea of signing Tyus as a free agent to backfill behind DLO. I'm assuming the MLE would be enough to sign Tyus, but I'm not sure.
WildWolf2813 wrote:Get Montero and groom him to replace D'Lo. Otherwise, get used to having D'Lo here for a long time.
You mean there are literally NO other options?
I think we have a year or so to figure out the PG slot and nothing has to be done this offseason.
I don't think they can go into next offseason completely reliant on a rookie PG in a weaker draft class to elevate this team.
In reality the best FA PG for next summer is on our roster and that's D'Lo.
Entering next off-season with D'Lo out the door, J-Mac as our only PG and this team having to pray Caleb Love or someone like that becomes THE guy at PG immediately is a treacherous scenario.
But is he, WW? I like DLo and would not be devastated if we couldn't move him this summer. But my dream would still be that some team out there values him like some on this board do, and trades us a starting PF, and then we sign the local boy to be our starting PG at a much cheaper price tag. Look at the comparative stats for DLo and Tyus last season:
DLo will always be a higher volume scorer than Tyus, but I'll take the cheaper guy by almost every other measure. Better offensive rating, better defensive rating, much better A:TO ratio, better 3-point accuracy, better WS and Ws/48, better eFG%, better BPM, better rebounder per 36 minutes. Other than PPG, I can't find an important measure in which DLo had a better season than Tyus. And for those who see Tyus as a backup rather than a starter, his record as a starter filling in for Ja was nothing short of spectacular...he shines in a starter role.
I get that DLo is a much better shot creator (although he has never been an efficient scorer), but with high-volume guys like Ant and KAT in the starting lineup, we don't need shot creation...we need a facilitator. And defenses need to respect Tyus beyond the arc now with his 39% 3-point stat, so he provides spacing also in addition to being an excellent facilitator and elite ball-protector. And the defensive gap between the two is immense.
So if PPG is the measure, DLo is the best free agent PG out there. But it's difficult to make a case for him over Jones if you dig into the stats deeper
Tyus definitely checks a lot of the boxes in terms of the type of PG we need next to KAT and Ant. The other guy I'd throw out there with a higher risk/reward factor is Victor Oladipo. Hell, he's not even a true PG, but I feel like he has enough vet experience and play making experience to essentially fill that role with a bunch of half court sets still being run through Ant and KAT. Both these guys are realistic alternatives in my opinion that could happen THIS offseason.
We don't know how things will shake out through the rest of the league over the next year, but I just don't believe that our ONLY option at PG is the draft, which is the way Wildwolf is positioning things. Opportunities may arise at the trade deadline or next offseason as well.
Tyus Jones is a free agent now, not next year, so if you wanna sign Jones (not saying I would) then ok, but getting rid of D'Lo becomes more urgent than even in my scenario.
I'm just not gonna presume a situation opens up to where someone feels they need D'Lo and definitely not as a starter.
This year just feels more important to address PG because next year's PG class IMO is worse and less likely to jump right in and contribute immediately. Now if Tyus is at or near the top of the FA class this summer, then he's only gonna take the money if it comes with a bigger role. Otherwise he might as well stay in Memphis. I otherwise don't see anything shaking out externally that would put us in a position to benefit.
lipoli390 wrote:I agree with FNG and Q. The draft isn't our only option to replace DLO at PG. In fact, it's probably our worst option given the uncertainty surrounding a relatively mediocre group of PG prospects likely to be available at 19 or below. If we trade DLO for player, it should be for a big. Otherwise, I could see trading him to move way up from 19 in the draft with sort-term salary filler in return. In either case, I like the idea of signing Tyus as a free agent to backfill behind DLO. I'm assuming the MLE would be enough to sign Tyus, but I'm not sure.
I guess we disagree about the point guard prospects in this draft, as I think TyTy and Chandler can be quality starting point guards and what's more they are both facilitators that would likely fit in better with Ant and KAT and they both project to be better defenders than DLO. In the meantime, we can also bring in someone like Delon Wright, Cory Joseph or even Tyus Jones to be our point guard until the rookie can take over. We got JMac and Bev rostered too. If you have a better idea for finding DLO's successor, I'm all ears. If VanVleet or Lebron is checking out the Minnesota housing market, please let us know.
Simply, the available options at point guard in the present and near future are not anywhere near as good or as proven as D'Angelo Russell, and if he's moved this off-season we'll inevitably see that. Fortunately, I think Tim Connelly will recognize his value to the team and retain him, and Russell may end up playing out the remaining year on his current deal. I think Russell has enough confidence to bet on himself for a big payday as one of the best, if not THE best, free agent guard on the market next summer if he does not extend. I can't blame him if that's the road he and his agency take. The best outcome, in my opinion, would be for both sides to reach a mutual agreement on an extension that keeps him in Minnesota beyond next year. But we don't know what either side is offering and probably won't for a while.
Camden wrote:Simply, the available options at point guard in the present and near future are not anywhere near as good or as proven as D'Angelo Russell, and if he's moved this off-season we'll inevitably see that. Fortunately, I think Tim Connelly will recognize his value to the team and retain him, and Russell may end up playing out the remaining year on his current deal. I think Russell has enough confidence to bet on himself for a big payday as one of the best, if not THE best, free agent guard on the market next summer if he does not extend. I can't blame him if that's the road he and his agency take. The best outcome, in my opinion, would be for both sides to reach a mutual agreement on an extension that keeps him in Minnesota beyond next year. But we don't know what either side is offering and probably won't for a while.
It quite possible, and given the seeming lack of demand for him, perhaps even likely DLO is kept on for another year, but I hope we move on from him. I don't see an extension as very likely as I would think the parties view of his worth is quite different and perhaps the Wolves just don't want him past this contract. If DLO has a good year, more power to him, but the future of the team rests with Ant and KAT and a roster that compliments those two talents.
Camden wrote:Simply, the available options at point guard in the present and near future are not anywhere near as good or as proven as D'Angelo Russell, and if he's moved this off-season we'll inevitably see that. Fortunately, I think Tim Connelly will recognize his value to the team and retain him, and Russell may end up playing out the remaining year on his current deal. I think Russell has enough confidence to bet on himself for a big payday as one of the best, if not THE best, free agent guard on the market next summer if he does not extend. I can't blame him if that's the road he and his agency take. The best outcome, in my opinion, would be for both sides to reach a mutual agreement on an extension that keeps him in Minnesota beyond next year. But we don't know what either side is offering and probably won't for a while.
It's not just about whether he's the best PG available, it's also about fit and how we allocate our salaries. My theory is that if we increasingly run our offense through KAT and Ant, we don't need a $25M+ starting PG. We can may be get away with a < $18M per year PG and then go re-invest the extra salary in big wings or a versatile 4.
If anyone is bored and wants to see some of the guys that will be available in the 2nd round etc the draft combine scrimmages/games are available on YouTube. I put a link to one game you can see the others that account has. There are some guys that flashed in one game and quit while they were ahead. So far watching parts of one game the guy that stoood out was someone I wasn't familiar with until recently a guy by the name of Bo Cruz. :)
Camden wrote:Simply, the available options at point guard in the present and near future are not anywhere near as good or as proven as D'Angelo Russell, and if he's moved this off-season we'll inevitably see that. Fortunately, I think Tim Connelly will recognize his value to the team and retain him, and Russell may end up playing out the remaining year on his current deal. I think Russell has enough confidence to bet on himself for a big payday as one of the best, if not THE best, free agent guard on the market next summer if he does not extend. I can't blame him if that's the road he and his agency take. The best outcome, in my opinion, would be for both sides to reach a mutual agreement on an extension that keeps him in Minnesota beyond next year. But we don't know what either side is offering and probably won't for a while.
It's not just about whether he's the best PG available, it's also about fit and how we allocate our salaries. My theory is that if we increasingly run our offense through KAT and Ant, we don't need a $25M+ starting PG. We can may be get away with a < $18M per year PG and then go re-invest the extra salary in big wings or a versatile 4.
I get that angle, but I also know that when Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns were on the court last year without D'Angelo Russell they were a net negative, albeit slightly (-0.5 net rating in 749 minutes). On the other hand, the trio had a net rating of 7.4 in 1,137 minutes. That's a pretty significant swing and while there are multiple explanations for that it's totally fair to say that Russell's ability to orchestrate the offense and create shots for himself and others is a huge part of it, especially considering Edwards and Towns aren't capable of taking on those responsibilities full-time -- and in the case of Edwards he has also said that he doesn't want to.
I take all of that into consideration and think about how there's conceivable growth and improvement for each of those three individually as well as collectively, and I see no reason to break them up. At the very least, improve the supporting cast and clean up the glaring holes in the roster before breaking up the nucleus and ensuring that the team takes a step back.
