lipoli390 wrote:thedoper wrote:lipoli390 wrote:thedoper wrote:D-Loser wrote:thedoper wrote:Signing a player at 15 mil in Dlo's spot erases any opportunity to add a 30 Mil asset. If were going to improve our pg play we arent going to do it for 15 mil. I would rather wait for a high level distressed asset closer to 30 mil and pounce on that with DLo's 30.
I don't understand your thinking at all... do you really think this team is going to be able to afford to pay Dlo (or anyone else) 30 mil per yea, then pay ant the max, Jaden presumably 12-15 per, and nowell 12-15 per? You guys need to stop worrying about replacing Dlo's salary slot, we're not the warriors... this team won't be paying a 4th guy the max or anywhere near it. Maybe if Dlo has a great year, we resign him for 20/year... but that's the most we'll be paying a 4th guy. Yes I can definitely see this team going into the luxury tax for a year at a time, but we're not the warriors, so quit worrying about losing Dlo's max slot.
Salary cap going up, values of team going up. The warriors saw this and rightly capitalized on it. You can trade off of 4 max slots, but you can never get them back. Rolling it back a 4th slot before the salary cap spike would be idiotic from an investment perspective. Keep your flexibility to spend.
Bottom line is that the Wolves won't be able to sign a player at $15 million per year to replace DLO. Even with the salary cap likely going up to $134 million next season, the Wolves will likely be capped out even without DLO's salary, which means the Wolves can't spend more than the MLE of around $10 million. So the Wolves have three choices when it comes to DLO: (1) trade him by the February deadline for a player or players within the CBA's salary-match range; (2) extend DLO at an amount that will likely be in the $25-35 million per year range; or (3) let DLO walk next summer and replace him with someone at the MLE level up to around $10 million per year.
Yes the chance goes away to ever have that money on a PG, that is the gist of my point. With a rising cap if we keep that slot around 30 mil I dont believe that we would be due for a massive lux tax bill in that first year. If we want to keep the rest of our roster I think the move for the most flexibility is 1 or 2. Shedding salary or downgrading value before the cap spike is bad economics.
I'm not sure where we'd be regarding the luxury tax over the span of a 3 or 4 year DLO deal at $30M per year. I think it would be pretty ugly once you factor in a max deal for Edwards, a big deal for McDaniels and a pretty hefty contract for Nowell. Nevertheless, I agree with you Doper, it doesn't seem to make much sense just letting DLO walk next summer given the team's obvious intent to compete for a championship during Gobert's limited window. The only caveat to that is if someone like Nowell, Edwards or JMac emerges as a better lead guard than DLO. But even then, the best move would be trading DLO at the deadline, not just letting him walk.
I'm 100% all for trading him at the deadline or after the season (not sure if a sign and trade would be allowed) for whatever we can get. I know it doesn't make sense to lose him for nothing, but I also don't like the alternative of being in the lux for 3 or 4 years because we overvalued him and paid to keep him.
