Minnesota Sports Forum

Q12543 wrote:

BloopOracle wrote:I know he compares to Wiggins in some ways effort wise but every video I've seen including his social media shows a charismatic guy who can light up a room, he's very fiery at times as well. Drastically different personalities with both having effort issues. Hopefully this one goes our way this time!

I think he's at a higher-level skills wise with his handles and passing. One thing about Wiggins is that even though he wasn't a good defender, I don't think he was ever as bad as Edwards showed at Georgia.

And I agree that we have to divorce personality from effort level - two different things. I could care less that Edwards is fun and easy to be around. Show you care on the basketball floor by getting into a stance and defending more than one or two plays a game.

I'll say this about Edwards he got in a stance and put forth the effort to defend a decent amount in the UK game I watched. I'm not sure how many times I've ever seen Wiggins get that low in a stance in 5 And a half years of watching him as a Wolf. That doesn't mean Edwards will be even average on that end (I agree Wiggins is not bad defender) but Edwards should get credit for at least putting forth that much effort compared to Wiggins. Personally I'm more worried about the team defense aspect of Edwards than his on Ball defense which is a lot like Wiggins as well. Neither of them in college really put up block, steal rebound numbers that were that impressive given their physical gifts. I think it's a tiny bit more damning for Wiggins to not put up those stats given his length, athletic ability and the fact that he was playing for Kansas.

Q - I think Wiggins was every bit as bad as Edwards defensively in college. The draft reviews of Edwards and Wiggins are eerily similar. Here's what Draftnet had to say about Wiggins' weaknesses:

"Weaknesses: The biggest issue is whether or not Wiggins has the mental make up to maximize his immense physical gifts. While some scouts are extremely high on him, there are just as many that question his focus and passion for the game ... Often plays too upright on offense, which can get him off his base and lead to turnovers ... Needs to work on moving without the ball, has a reputation of sometimes standing, ball watching ... Defensive awareness is something he must work on, along with always running out to his spot and not relying completely on length, athleticism to challenge a player ... Still needs to add upper body strength, had issues finishing around the basket and getting knocked off of his spot when defensive rebounding ... Long range shot is still not overly consistent, sometimes turns his hand outward on follow through ... Often loose with dribble, sometimes has the ball too high and gets exploited when double teamed ... Some question his lack of assertiveness offensively, which calls into question his ability to be a primary option on a high level team ... Battled inconsistency and struggled against physical defense, which could point to strength as well as a sign of shaky confidence ... Should look to become a more vocal leader ... Too often settled for long range shots and did not venture out of his comfort zone enough, still has many things to learn in terms of creating mid range shots and counter moves ... Had a difficult time establishing post position, something that could be a crucial next step to utilize his quickness and size as a wing at the next level ..."

The first two sentences, questioning Wiggins' mental makeup to maximize his physical gifts, his passion for the game and his inconsistent perimeter shooting could have come right out of any number of reviews evaluating Edwards. But there are some notable differences:

1. You won't find any draft reviews questioning Edwards' handle. To the contrary, unlike Wiggins, Edwards is a good ballhandler who has the basics to get even better. This is a huge difference between the two.

2. You won't have any draft reviews questioning Edwards' physical strength. Again, to the contrary, Edwards is highly regarded for his physical strength and ability to finish though contract. This is yet another important distinction between the two.

3. Edwards is a far more aggressive personality than Wiggins. I always got the sense that Wiggins came to games stoned and just taking it all in with a smile. I get a very different vibe from Edwards.

4. Although both had their motors questioned by draft analysts, I don't recall Wiggins' head coach at Kansas lavishing him with the same kind of praise Crean has repeatedly given Edwards.

5. The questions about Wiggins' shot related to issues with his mechanics. In contrast, while most of the respected draft analysts have attributed Edwards' poor shooting to poor shot selection, not issues with his mechanics. Some have also attributed his poor shot selection to the fact that he didn't have very good players surrounding him.

This differences are enough to give us good reason to believe that Edwards won't be a Wiggins-size disappointment and has a much better chance of becoming a great player. And let's not forget that Wiggins was the NBA rookie of the year. He just never developed in the ensuing years.

One of my other fears with Edwards is that he becomes Zach LaVine 2.0.....high-volume scorer and shooter with some passing chops, but horrible defense and questionable decision making that ultimately sabotages his game.

LaVine might win the all time Great Stats/Poor Team Results award among his contemporaries. In LaVine's six seasons, he has had exactly one where his team didn't do better when he was on the bench. That is incredible. And it's not by a small amount. His career net on-off rating is -4.6 points per 100 possessions. That means his team does 4.6 points per 100 possessions BETTER when he is on the bench. He has had one season out of six where this number was positive.

By contrast, Wiggins has had only one season (his rookie year) where his net on/off rating was negative. And keep in mind these guys overlapped a number of seasons together!

DLO has a similar story to LaVine, but not quite as extreme. He has a career -3.1 net On/Off rating. His one season in the positive was two seasons ago in Brooklyn. And he was barely in the positive.

So as much as we like to rip on Wiggins, the fact is he did far less damage to the lineups he was a part of than LaVine or DLO have done throughout their careers (and I fear Edwards could be similar). These guys make their teams worse when they are on the floor. At least that's the story so far.

Q12543 wrote:One of my other fears with Edwards is that he becomes Zach LaVine 2.0.....high-volume scorer and shooter with some passing chops, but horrible defense and questionable decision making that ultimately sabotages his game.

LaVine might win the all time Great Stats/Poor Team Results award among his contemporaries. In LaVine's six seasons, he has had exactly one where his team didn't do better when he was on the bench. That is incredible. And it's not by a small amount. His career net on-off rating is -4.6 points per 100 possessions. That means his team does 4.6 points per 100 possessions BETTER when he is on the bench. He has had one season out of six where this number was positive.

By contrast, Wiggins has had only one season (his rookie year) where his net on/off rating was negative. And keep in mind these guys overlapped a number of seasons together!

DLO has a similar story to LaVine, but not quite as extreme. He has a career -3.1 net On/Off rating. His one season in the positive was two seasons ago in Brooklyn. And he was barely in the positive.

So as much as we like to rip on Wiggins, the fact is he did far less damage to the lineups he was a part of than LaVine or DLO have done throughout their careers (and I fear Edwards could be similar). These guys make their teams worse when they are on the floor. At least that's the story so far.

It would be interesting to know what kind of value around the league a guy like Lavine has. The one thing he has going for him especially in light of a good team is that he is a good shooter he could actually play off other good players offensively assuming he would be willing to do so. It will be interesting to see how he does playing for Billy Donovan. It's possible Lavine could take a leap playing for a proven head coach. So what I'm getting at is that Edwards even if he is a put up nice numbers doesn't help you win type...he would likely have plenty of value if it was recognized that it was unlikely to work. That's probably gonna be a tough call because...maybe he will figure it out! :)

I think LaVine should be a bench scorer, which seems preposterous given his traditional box score numbers and current role on Chicago. But there is a six year sample size on two different teams that he hurts you as a full-time starting guard. He is more Jamaal Crawford/Lou Williams than CJ McCollum or Devin Booker.

Q12543 wrote:One of my other fears with Edwards is that he becomes Zach LaVine 2.0.....high-volume scorer and shooter with some passing chops, but horrible defense and questionable decision making that ultimately sabotages his game.

LaVine might win the all time Great Stats/Poor Team Results award among his contemporaries. In LaVine's six seasons, he has had exactly one where his team didn't do better when he was on the bench. That is incredible. And it's not by a small amount. His career net on-off rating is -4.6 points per 100 possessions. That means his team does 4.6 points per 100 possessions BETTER when he is on the bench. He has had one season out of six where this number was positive.

By contrast, Wiggins has had only one season (his rookie year) where his net on/off rating was negative. And keep in mind these guys overlapped a number of seasons together!

DLO has a similar story to LaVine, but not quite as extreme. He has a career -3.1 net On/Off rating. His one season in the positive was two seasons ago in Brooklyn. And he was barely in the positive.

So as much as we like to rip on Wiggins, the fact is he did far less damage to the lineups he was a part of than LaVine or DLO have done throughout their careers (and I fear Edwards could be similar). These guys make their teams worse when they are on the floor. At least that's the story so far.

Edwards will have to substantially improve his three-point shooting just to be as good as LaVine. But Edwards' physical strength and power clearly give him the potential to be a much better defender than LaVine. And I think Edwards is already a better passer than LaVine. I also think Edwards is smarter than LaVine and that will help. Of course, it will ultimately come down to effort and Anthony's commitment to improve defensively.

Question, Q: If could choose between adding Wiggins or LaVine to the Wolves roster, who would you add? You can't say neither. :)

What site are you using, Q? Andrew Wiggins has had exactly one season with a positive net rating (2017-18). His +/- per 100 possessions on-court is also negative every year of his career besides 2017-18. The rest of his conventional advanced statistics are pretty below average as well. I'm not seeing what you're seeing at all in regards to Wiggins.

Camden wrote:What site are you using, Q? Andrew Wiggins has had exactly one season with a positive net rating (2017-18). His +/- per 100 possessions on-court is also negative every year of his career besides 2017-18. The rest of his conventional advanced statistics are pretty below average as well. I'm not seeing what you're seeing at all in regards to Wiggins.

Interesting that Andrew's one net positive season happened when he was playing alongside Jimmy Butler. It's a reminder of the impact one truly elite player like Butler can have on a team and the individual stats of his teammates. Zach LaVine never had the opportunity to play with someone anywhere close to Butler's level. My sense is that Zach would have flourished next to Butler the way Tyler Herro did.

Cam, I'm using Net On/Off rating which takes your net rating while on the court per 100 possessions (that's the one you cited above) and subtracts the net rating of the team while you are off the court per 100 possessions. It basically asks the question: What happens when you are on the bench?

- Andrew's team almost always does worse when he is on the bench.

- LaVine's team almost always does better when he is on the bench. Same with DLO.

- To answer Lip's question, I'd take Wiggins over LaVine IF contracts were similar. He hurts your team less than LaVine does.

- KAT and Rubio's teams almost always do worse when they are on the bench. They each have similar net on/off ratings for their career (+5.6 and +5.1 respectively). Wiggins is at +2.6. DLO is at -3.1. LaVine is -4.6.

I'm not saying this means Wiggins is a great player, as obviously the quality of his backups over the years has an impact and we've seen how he struggles to lift a team when he is on the floor. But as each year passes and the context changes, these stats become more and more valid. I've looked at a bunch of players on this. I might write a separate post about it.

Q12543 wrote:Cam, I'm using Net On/Off rating which takes your net rating while on the court per 100 possessions (that's the one you cited above) and subtracts the net rating of the team while you are off the court per 100 possessions. It basically asks the question: What happens when you are on the bench?

- Andrew's team almost always does worse when he is on the bench.

- LaVine's team almost always does better when he is on the bench. Same with DLO.

- To answer Lip's question, I'd take Wiggins over LaVine IF contracts were similar. He hurts your team less than LaVine does.

- KAT and Rubio's teams almost always do worse when they are on the bench. They each have similar net on/off ratings for their career (+5.6 and +5.1 respectively). Wiggins is at +2.6. DLO is at -3.1. LaVine is -4.6.

I'm not saying this means Wiggins is a great player, as obviously the quality of his backups over the years has an impact and we've seen how he struggles to lift a team when he is on the floor. But as each year passes and the context changes, these stats become more and more valid. I've looked at a bunch of players on this. I might write a separate post about it.

I'm not sure how revealing that stat is when evaluating Wiggins. I know that KAT was almost always on the court with Wiggins, which would really help Andrew's on-court rating. I'd want to know who was on the court when when Wiggins was on the bench.

Give me the player who hits 37.5 of his threes and 82% of his free throws over the guy who hits 33.2% of his threes and 73% of his free throws. Neither one is a good defender, so you have to surround either one with good defenders and employ a defensive system that covers for them. I wouldn't want either one at Wiggins' salary of nearly $30 million. At Zach's salary of $19.5M, I'd take Zach.

Here's another question: Rank the following in order of preference:

1. Buddy Hield under his current contract (4 yrs starting at $25.9M & declining each yr to $19M)
2. Zach LaVine under his current contract (2 yrs at $19.5M each year); or
3. Malik Beasley under his new contract (3 yrs. guaranteed - $13.3M, $14.4, $15.5M - 4th yr TO $16M)