Minnesota Sports Forum

monsterpile wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:

60WinTim wrote:Johnson seems like a poor comparison, as players who stick in this league tend to see their shooting percentages go up, especially entering the league as a young 20 year old.

Let's hope you're right, Tim, but typically Wolves players who begin their careers with us hoping they will improve their shooting seldom get better. Corey Brewer and Ricky Rubio come to mind, and off hand I'm having a hard time coming up with any Wolf where we said "See, I always knew he would become a good shooter". Especially guys who seem to be primarily defensive players early in their careers (Johnson, Smart, etc.) seldom seem to improve their shooting. Is there a good T-Wolf example of a horrendous rookie shooter who got much better?

Honestly I think Okogie has better ball handling and passing than Brewer and has a chance to be an elite defender. Brewer was elite at stealing the ball and playing his butt off. He at best above average defender though. If Brewer was a Covington or Andre Roberson type guy or even a notch down fr that he would be a legit starter somewhere and make at least twice what he was making his last multiyear contract even with his poor shooting.

Stanley Johnson in some ways is an exception to the rule innthat he never got much better and still sucks at shooting. Usually guys get at least some better. Regardless Okogie looks like he can be a legit NBA rotation player likely on a good team. That would be a win especially if the team can keep him on an appropriate contract after his rookie deal.

Of, I agree that Okogie is already a better ballhandler than Corey...his nickname was and is The Drunken Dribbler! But Brewer is kind of a low bar for Okogie to exceed. I still think Josh can carve out a good career in the NBA as a defensive specialist, and that's not a bad outcome for a 20th pick.

Do you really think Johnson is an exception though? Without looking up specific stats, I can't think of any rookies who shot as poorly as Okogie their rookie season (in at least 20 MPG) and became good shooters, while several come to mind (like Smart, Johnson, Rubio and Brewer) who never really improved much. Jason Kidd might ne an example, but I'm also reminded he was the go-to guy when we wanted to feel good about Rubio's shooting prospects. I'd love to be wrong on this one though, so let's hear some examples of 20+ MPG horrible shooting rookies who got much better.

Okogie's athletism and skill are superior to the mentioned players. He surprises me often with how quick he gets off the floor. I think his mechanics are pretty sounds with his shooting, good rotation, and footwork. It's kinda of a set shot which I hope he works on. Although he's able to pull up off the dribble for a mid range quite well.

I think there is reason to be optimistic his shooting percentages should improve.

longstrangetrip wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:

60WinTim wrote:Johnson seems like a poor comparison, as players who stick in this league tend to see their shooting percentages go up, especially entering the league as a young 20 year old.

Let's hope you're right, Tim, but typically Wolves players who begin their careers with us hoping they will improve their shooting seldom get better. Corey Brewer and Ricky Rubio come to mind, and off hand I'm having a hard time coming up with any Wolf where we said "See, I always knew he would become a good shooter". Especially guys who seem to be primarily defensive players early in their careers (Johnson, Smart, etc.) seldom seem to improve their shooting. Is there a good T-Wolf example of a horrendous rookie shooter who got much better?

Honestly I think Okogie has better ball handling and passing than Brewer and has a chance to be an elite defender. Brewer was elite at stealing the ball and playing his butt off. He at best above average defender though. If Brewer was a Covington or Andre Roberson type guy or even a notch down fr that he would be a legit starter somewhere and make at least twice what he was making his last multiyear contract even with his poor shooting.

Stanley Johnson in some ways is an exception to the rule innthat he never got much better and still sucks at shooting. Usually guys get at least some better. Regardless Okogie looks like he can be a legit NBA rotation player likely on a good team. That would be a win especially if the team can keep him on an appropriate contract after his rookie deal.

Of, I agree that Okogie is already a better ballhandler than Corey...his nickname was and is The Drunken Dribbler! But Brewer is kind of a low bar for Okogie to exceed. I still think Josh can carve out a good career in the NBA as a defensive specialist, and that's not a bad outcome for a 20th pick.

Do you really think Johnson is an exception though? Without looking up specific stats, I can't think of any rookies who shot as poorly as Okogie their rookie season (in at least 20 MPG) and became good shooters, while several come to mind (like Smart, Johnson, Rubio and Brewer) who never really improved much. Jason Kidd might ne an example, but I'm also reminded he was the go-to guy when we wanted to feel good about Rubio's shooting prospects. I'd love to be wrong on this one though, so let's hear some examples of 20+ MPG horrible shooting rookies who got much better.

Just looked it up Stanley Johnson is a guy that gets minutes on teams that don't completely suck and he is a career 37% FG shooter. That's pretty bad. How he hasn't been able to at least get to like 40% is pretty amazing. I'm sure you can find some bad rookie seasons in addition to the bricks Stanley johnson and Okogie put up. Kris Dunn comes to mind and he has been better since then and is a lot older.

When running through a random sampling of 20 year old rookies, I saw a tendency for their shooting to improve throughout the year. Gary Harris for example. In theory, Josh has 2 months of improved shooting coming up that will bring his percentages up, and thus be a more fair comparison to other past rookies.

I didn't watch the game but how many fouls did linebacker PJ Tucker get away with against KAT?

Don't kill the messenger... but there are statistical similarities between Okogie and rookie Smilin' Wes.

Per 36 Minutes:

Johnson:
12.3 ppg
4.2 reb
2.6 apg
39.7% fg
35.6% 3fg
69.6% ft
10.2 PER
- 1.1 OBPM
- 0.4 DBPM
+0.2 VORP
1.0 stl
0.9 blk

Okogie
12.0 ppg
4.8 reb
1.8 apg
36.4% fg
26.0% 3fg
74.5% ft
- 2.8 OBPM
- 0.1 DBPM
- 0.2 VORP
1.6 stl
0.6 blk


[Note: #20 pick gives Okogie a lot more room to grow into the role than the #4 pick.]

Not to mention the age difference!

60WinTim wrote:Not to mention the age difference!

True. Wes was a very old rookie, relatively speaking. But I don't think that's nearly the same factor it once was.

We're not talking about Jonathon Bender here. There are plenty of one-year college guys in the NBA that aren't overwhelmed. Don't one-and-done guys outnumber multi-year college guys at this point?

Weren't there about a dozen in last year's 1st round?

Okogie had two years of college ball.

AbeVigodaLive wrote:

60WinTim wrote:Not to mention the age difference!

True. Wes was a very old rookie, relatively speaking. But I don't think that's nearly the same factor it once was.

We're not talking about Jonathon Bender here. There are plenty of one-year college guys in the NBA that aren't overwhelmed. Don't one-and-done guys outnumber multi-year college guys at this point?

Weren't there about a dozen in last year's 1st round?

Okogie had two years of college ball.

As did Gary Harris...

And Russell Westbrook, who was terrible as a freshman.

Gary Harris is a good example of a lousy shooter getting better.

Small sample size... but he only shot 30% as a rookie. Ugh.