Minnesota Sports Forum

lipoli390 wrote:

thedoper wrote:Our franchise success needs KAT to become top 5 player in the league and Wiggins to be an All-star. Golden State's 1st year with Iggy they lost in the first round to the clippers. Then Curry became mvp the next year and the rest is history. The development of our young guys will always define this team, I'll even throw Gourgi and Tyus into that mix. If those guys keep getting better we're fine. Butler can either stay and be part of something good or walk if that is the case. Based on what KAT has done so far and MVP type season would not surprise me this year just like I was trying to write in the other thread.

I agree, Doper. The only thing I'd add is that trading for Butler didn't fit with what I'd consider a coherent, optimal plan because of the age gap and the limited length of Butler's contractual commitment to the team. We still don't know how good LaVine or Dunn will become. We don't know how good Markkenan will ultimately be, but we already know how good Donovan Mitchell. An optimal coherent plan would have been to continue using our lottery picks and showing patience with the picks we already made to build around KAT and Wiggins. An optimal plan would have included hiring a coach suited to the modern NBA and the nature of today's young players. No guarantee it would have worked, but it would have made sense over the long haul, especially in a Conference the Warriors will likely dominate for the next few years.

We can't expect every pick to pan out. Things happen. For example, Marbury unexpectedly forced his way out, but the Wolves ended up signing Billups. It wasn't clear at the time, but Billups paired with Garnett would have eventually put the Wolves back on the track they have been on with Marbury. Unfortunately the Wolves let Billups go in favor of Terrell Brandon as the team's starting PG. The smart move then would have been to keep Billups who was about the same age as KG. The point is that you keep drafting and developing until you get it right. When Flip was here, he had the good fortune and good sense to draft KAT. He also parlayed Love into Wiggins who became rookie of the years. Thibodeau inherited both in addition to LaVine and the 6th pick in the NBA draft. His focus should have been on adding young talent to the talented trio he inherited and acquiring young talent with the two high lottery picks he had his first two drafts.

There's room for disagreement on this, but what I described above would be my notion of a sensible, coherent plan pointing in the right direction. Unfortunately, in my view, Thibodeau himself was the wrong choice to take us in the right direction.

Having a coherent plan hasn't exactly been the Timberwolves way the past 10+ years. Lol Even when it looked like we may have had one with Flip that was derailed and we had to change course. It's worth remembering that Flip brought in his vets also. He maybe gave up too much to get KG but I still think the idea made sense. Let's say he retired after his 2-year contract was over and Flip was still here we would have a legit NBA legend around a franchise that's largely a joke aside from KG. Flip also brought in Prince and was wanting to keep Kevin Martin around for years as a scorer off the bench.

This offseason seems to have the type of offseason that makes more sense. People joke or malign the timberbulls moves but Thibs seems to be putting together a roster that generally makes sense (as a fit for the roster) and with some guys that seem like they actually fit into being more of a Thibs type player which was a question last year with Bazz and Crawford to some extents. If you look back at each year of Thibs and Layden's offseason it's possible to see some rationale to what they were/are doing even though it hasn't always worked out well. This is the the year of ok this is what we have let's fill in around what we have. If a couple of these smaller FA moves or a draft pick turn out to be pretty good this team could make a meaningful jump. That's not out of the realm of possibility.

A massive difference between Thibs and Flip and even a big difference between Thibs and Layden and other front offices is they aren't going to go out and sell you on anything. They are going to tell you their basic plan but it's not going to excite you they aren't going to give you intimate details etc etc. what they tell you is boring and...coherent. Whether or not you think the corresponding moves are coherent year to year is a fair question but they generally aren't out there shaping the narrative which makes it hard sometimes to know what the plan is. I'm not suggesting that Thibs and Layden have been some sort of strategic genuiuses buildinf this roster over the past couple years but as Jon L said on a recent podcast...adding Butler made this more talented it's whether or not that move and the vision Thibs has with it is sustainable. We are going to find out.

I'm trying to figure out why I agree with most of the takes in this thread, even though they appear to be at odds with each other at times. I think it may be because we are discussing two different issues. The OP posted a poll asking for us to weigh in on a specific issue: the Butler trade one year later. But the conversation seems to have morphed into a discussion of the current state of the Wolves...whether they are potentially a championship contender or not and whether Thibs is the right man for the job. To be clear, I voted YES only on the question originally posed by the OP...am we happy with the trade. Because I still think getting a top 10 player like Butler for two players who have below average stats early in their careers (yes, this could change, but I don't think it will) was grand theft larceny, and Thibs should be given credit for that whether Butler stays or not.

But if I were to divide the Thibs era into component parts, here is how I would grade him (and Taylor for originally hiring him):

Hiring Thibs: C minus. I get why Taylor chose Thibs...he was the available coach with the most NBA success and thus the easy choice. That's why I don't give him an F. But from the start I didn't think Thibs coaching style and personality were the right fit for this team, and that has proven to be true in my estimation.


Thibs coaching in his first two years: D minus. He came here with a defensive genius rep, but hasn't made the Wolves a better defensive team. His offense is antiquated. His sideline demeanor is offensive to many fans and not constructive to many of the players. I don't believe he has been effective in developing young players like Wiggins, Jones and Dunn, and seems to have had a noticeable negative impact on Dieng. All in all, a disaster as a coach for this team.


The Butler deal: A+, for all the reasons I stated earlier in this thread.


Thibs other PBO moves: C-. Some have been good, some have been bad, some have been average. I think he is a good judge of talent, but doesn't have the front office experience to manage salary cap issues well, and hence has put the Wolves in a difficult cap position going forward. Overall, just an average PBO in my opinion.


But my negative evaluation of Thibs overall doesn't change my favorable opinion on the Butler trade.

longstrangetrip wrote:I'm trying to figure out why I agree with most of the takes in this thread, even though they appear to be at odds with each other at times. I think it may be because we are discussing two different issues. The OP posted a poll asking for us to weigh in on a specific issue: the Butler trade one year later. But the conversation seems to have morphed into a discussion of the current state of the Wolves...whether they are potentially a championship contender or not and whether Thibs is the right man for the job. To be clear, I voted YES only on the question originally posed by the OP...am we happy with the trade. Because I still think getting a top 10 player like Butler for two players who have below average stats early in their careers (yes, this could change, but I don't think it will) was grand theft larceny, and Thibs should be given credit for that whether Butler stays or not.

But if I were to divide the Thibs era into component parts, here is how I would grade him (and Taylor for originally hiring him):

Hiring Thibs: C minus. I get why Taylor chose Thibs...he was the available coach with the most NBA success and thus the easy choice. That's why I don't give him an F. But from the start I didn't think Thibs coaching style and personality were the right fit for this team, and that has proven to be true in my estimation.


Thibs coaching in his first two years: D minus. He came here with a defensive genius rep, but hasn't made the Wolves a better defensive team. His offense is antiquated. His sideline demeanor is offensive to many fans and not constructive to many of the players. I don't believe he has been effective in developing young players like Wiggins, Jones and Dunn, and seems to have had a noticeable negative impact on Dieng. All in all, a disaster as a coach for this team.


The Butler deal: A+, for all the reasons I stated earlier in this thread.


Thibs other PBO moves: C-. Some have been good, some have been bad, some have been average. I think he is a good judge of talent, but doesn't have the front office experience to manage salary cap issues well, and hence has put the Wolves in a difficult cap position going forward. Overall, just an average PBO in my opinion.


But my negative evaluation of Thibs overall doesn't change my favorable opinion on the Butler trade.

This is a pretty fair post LST. I have a comment and a question.

You said Thibs had a negative effect on Dieng. His first season under Thibs he had his highest advanced stats numbers of his career. Then last year he sucked. So maybe Thibs overall had a negative effect but the first year it could be argued it was good.

What grade would you give Thibs offseason for this year?

longstrangetrip wrote:I'm trying to figure out why I agree with most of the takes in this thread, even though they appear to be at odds with each other at times. I think it may be because we are discussing two different issues. The OP posted a poll asking for us to weigh in on a specific issue: the Butler trade one year later. But the conversation seems to have morphed into a discussion of the current state of the Wolves...whether they are potentially a championship contender or not and whether Thibs is the right man for the job. To be clear, I voted YES only on the question originally posed by the OP...am we happy with the trade. Because I still think getting a top 10 player like Butler for two players who have below average stats early in their careers (yes, this could change, but I don't think it will) was grand theft larceny, and Thibs should be given credit for that whether Butler stays or not.

But if I were to divide the Thibs era into component parts, here is how I would grade him (and Taylor for originally hiring him):

Hiring Thibs: C minus. I get why Taylor chose Thibs...he was the available coach with the most NBA success and thus the easy choice. That's why I don't give him an F. But from the start I didn't think Thibs coaching style and personality were the right fit for this team, and that has proven to be true in my estimation.


Thibs coaching in his first two years: D minus. He came here with a defensive genius rep, but hasn't made the Wolves a better defensive team. His offense is antiquated. His sideline demeanor is offensive to many fans and not constructive to many of the players. I don't believe he has been effective in developing young players like Wiggins, Jones and Dunn, and seems to have had a noticeable negative impact on Dieng. All in all, a disaster as a coach for this team.


The Butler deal: A+, for all the reasons I stated earlier in this thread.


Thibs other PBO moves: C-. Some have been good, some have been bad, some have been average. I think he is a good judge of talent, but doesn't have the front office experience to manage salary cap issues well, and hence has put the Wolves in a difficult cap position going forward. Overall, just an average PBO in my opinion.


But my negative evaluation of Thibs overall doesn't change my favorable opinion on the Butler trade.

LST - I was trying to figure out how you and I ended up differing in our evaluation of the Butler deal. I think it comes down to this. You are judging the deal by who got the best player in the deal and whether the deal made the Wolves a better team the moment it was made. By those measures, the deal was definitely a good one for the Wolves. I'm looking at it more wholeistically and over a longer time frame. The age gap between Butler and our young talent, coupled with the term of Butler's contract made the deal problematic at the outset when viewed wholeistically over the long term. I also had misgivings about Butler's personality fit given what we heard about locker room issues he had in Chicago and Butler's injury history, which should be expected to only get worse from age 28 on. Adding a player like Butler is what you do when your young team is already a playoff team in need of a veteran allstar to take you to championship contention. I'm not aware of an example where the addition of a veteran 6 years older than a team's core young talent took that team from bottom-dweller to championship contention over the long haul. The Butler deal helped take us to the playoffs in one season, but that was by a hair's width and Butler's frustration is already showing to the point where he's talking about leaving after this season. These were the things I feared and why I have doubts about whether the Butler deal was the right deal for this franchise.

monsterpile wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:I'm trying to figure out why I agree with most of the takes in this thread, even though they appear to be at odds with each other at times. I think it may be because we are discussing two different issues. The OP posted a poll asking for us to weigh in on a specific issue: the Butler trade one year later. But the conversation seems to have morphed into a discussion of the current state of the Wolves...whether they are potentially a championship contender or not and whether Thibs is the right man for the job. To be clear, I voted YES only on the question originally posed by the OP...am we happy with the trade. Because I still think getting a top 10 player like Butler for two players who have below average stats early in their careers (yes, this could change, but I don't think it will) was grand theft larceny, and Thibs should be given credit for that whether Butler stays or not.

But if I were to divide the Thibs era into component parts, here is how I would grade him (and Taylor for originally hiring him):

Hiring Thibs: C minus. I get why Taylor chose Thibs...he was the available coach with the most NBA success and thus the easy choice. That's why I don't give him an F. But from the start I didn't think Thibs coaching style and personality were the right fit for this team, and that has proven to be true in my estimation.


Thibs coaching in his first two years: D minus. He came here with a defensive genius rep, but hasn't made the Wolves a better defensive team. His offense is antiquated. His sideline demeanor is offensive to many fans and not constructive to many of the players. I don't believe he has been effective in developing young players like Wiggins, Jones and Dunn, and seems to have had a noticeable negative impact on Dieng. All in all, a disaster as a coach for this team.


The Butler deal: A+, for all the reasons I stated earlier in this thread.


Thibs other PBO moves: C-. Some have been good, some have been bad, some have been average. I think he is a good judge of talent, but doesn't have the front office experience to manage salary cap issues well, and hence has put the Wolves in a difficult cap position going forward. Overall, just an average PBO in my opinion.


But my negative evaluation of Thibs overall doesn't change my favorable opinion on the Butler trade.

This is a pretty fair post LST. I have a comment and a question.

You said Thibs had a negative effect on Dieng. His first season under Thibs he had his highest advanced stats numbers of his career. Then last year he sucked. So maybe Thibs overall had a negative effect but the first year it could be argued it was good.

What grade would you give Thibs offseason for this year?

Yeah, Dieng did thrive under Thibs the first year, but then took a major step back last year. It seems that Gorgui didn't react well at all to losing his starting position, and perhaps that is more on G than Thibs. I have been told that Gorgui was the clear locker room leader during the 2016-7 season, but then was relatively quiet last season. Who knows why...maybe a reaction to no longer starting. I suspect that the Gibson signing was not at all positive for G, but Gibson played so well last year, I have a difficult time finding fault with Thibs for that deal (although I panned it at the time).

It's difficult for me to grade this offseason for Thibs, because his moves the previous year gave him little flexibility this summer in the free agent market. I don't think anyone is very pleased with the free agent activity this summer, but the combination of Thibs' reputation around the league and the lack of cap space pretty much guaranteed not much was going to happen. On the more positive side, I liked both of his draft picks. I don't know how much they are going to contribute this season, but they both seemed to be the right pick at the right time.


I think I would give Thibs an overall C+ for this offseason...solid draft, but uninspiring free agent activity.

longstrangetrip wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:I'm trying to figure out why I agree with most of the takes in this thread, even though they appear to be at odds with each other at times. I think it may be because we are discussing two different issues. The OP posted a poll asking for us to weigh in on a specific issue: the Butler trade one year later. But the conversation seems to have morphed into a discussion of the current state of the Wolves...whether they are potentially a championship contender or not and whether Thibs is the right man for the job. To be clear, I voted YES only on the question originally posed by the OP...am we happy with the trade. Because I still think getting a top 10 player like Butler for two players who have below average stats early in their careers (yes, this could change, but I don't think it will) was grand theft larceny, and Thibs should be given credit for that whether Butler stays or not.

But if I were to divide the Thibs era into component parts, here is how I would grade him (and Taylor for originally hiring him):

Hiring Thibs: C minus. I get why Taylor chose Thibs...he was the available coach with the most NBA success and thus the easy choice. That's why I don't give him an F. But from the start I didn't think Thibs coaching style and personality were the right fit for this team, and that has proven to be true in my estimation.


Thibs coaching in his first two years: D minus. He came here with a defensive genius rep, but hasn't made the Wolves a better defensive team. His offense is antiquated. His sideline demeanor is offensive to many fans and not constructive to many of the players. I don't believe he has been effective in developing young players like Wiggins, Jones and Dunn, and seems to have had a noticeable negative impact on Dieng. All in all, a disaster as a coach for this team.


The Butler deal: A+, for all the reasons I stated earlier in this thread.


Thibs other PBO moves: C-. Some have been good, some have been bad, some have been average. I think he is a good judge of talent, but doesn't have the front office experience to manage salary cap issues well, and hence has put the Wolves in a difficult cap position going forward. Overall, just an average PBO in my opinion.


But my negative evaluation of Thibs overall doesn't change my favorable opinion on the Butler trade.

This is a pretty fair post LST. I have a comment and a question.

You said Thibs had a negative effect on Dieng. His first season under Thibs he had his highest advanced stats numbers of his career. Then last year he sucked. So maybe Thibs overall had a negative effect but the first year it could be argued it was good.

What grade would you give Thibs offseason for this year?

Yeah, Dieng did thrive under Thibs the first year, but then took a major step back last year. It seems that Gorgui didn't react well at all to losing his starting position, and perhaps that is more on G than Thibs. I have been told that Gorgui was the clear locker room leader during the 2016-7 season, but then was relatively quiet last season. Who knows why...maybe a reaction to no longer starting. I suspect that the Gibson signing was not at all positive for G, but Gibson played so well last year, I have a difficult time finding fault with Thibs for that deal (although I panned it at the time).

It's difficult for me to grade this offseason for Thibs, because his moves the previous year gave him little flexibility this summer in the free agent market. I don't think anyone is very pleased with the free agent activity this summer, but the combination of Thibs' reputation around the league and the lack of cap space pretty much guaranteed not much was going to happen. On the more positive side, I liked both of his draft picks. I don't know how much they are going to contribute this season, but they both seemed to be the right pick at the right time.


I think I would give Thibs an overall C+ for this offseason...solid draft, but uninspiring free agent activity.

C+ is a fair grade. I'm one that's actually pretty pleased with the offseason especially considering the restraints they were working under. I'd probably go with a B or B+ but unless someone is really high on the draft picks there isn't a ton to get much higher than a C. I will say Nunnally is specifically a type of guy I hoped they would look at possibly getting a player that isn't proven coming over from an internation league but might be pretty worthwhile and for cheap. That's some actual creative roster construction (which has been a fair complained about Thibs and Layden) and if he is worthwhile he absolutely fits what this roster needs. Also it's worth mentioning that Butler the last 2 seasons has basically been on a value contract for the type of player he is. He is basically making about what Lavine is this year at just over 20 million bucks. The Wolves had a nice chunk of space last summer (regardless of what move/swe did or didn't make) it seems likely to me they would have spent some of that money on a player beyond 1 year. I suppose they could have done the 1 year JJ redick or KCP type deal. After they made that Butler deal they have clearly looked toward having flexibility in 2019 when Jimmy is a FA. If Jimmy left and they were able to move Teague (or he opts out) they would have aground 20 million in cap space to work with to rebuild around Towns (and Wiggins but to what extent TBD) although presumably some of that money would be used on Tyus. There will be more money around the league to spend next offseason but I think if you have even $15 million in cap space (plenty onder the lux tax so we could use some exceptions also) I think there will be some worthwhile players this team could sign on value deals if Butler really does leave. It could also leave this team with a roster of guys that are all under 30 with Dieng as the old guy at 29. This team might be more fascinating than it ever has been because it has so many ways it could go. I've decided to go along for the ride much like it's been pretty much every Vikings season the past 5 or so years.

Gibson was mediocre in the plus/ minus stats and was worse than Belly last year. Dieng as a starter in previous years was vastly superior in plus/minus stats. Gibson certainly wasn't horrible but he's old and not a building block for the future. I just think he was a waste of money and took minutes away from younger guys.

The trade was even worse as Butler kept us from getting another lottery pick that could have gotten us Michael Porter. Also, keeping pick would have given us an opportunity to draft Donovan Mitchell who I would take any day over Butler.

KG4Ever wrote:Gibson was mediocre in the plus/ minus stats and was worse than Belly last year. Dieng as a starter in previous years was vastly superior in plus/minus stats. Gibson certainly wasn't horrible but he's old and not a building block for the future. I just think he was a waste of money and took minutes away from younger guys.

You realize that the Wolves were 6.2 pts/per 100 possessions better when he was on the court when compared when he was off. What was in the 82nd percentile in the NBA. Also the Wolves were 4.5 pts better then there opponents when he was on the court what was in the 78th percentile in the NBA.

Compared to Belly were the wolves were 2.4 worse with Belly on the court compared to off what was in the 38th percentile. Then the wolves were 1 pt better then there opponents, what was in the 59th percentile.

Comparing the Gogui 2 years ago, we were decent, The wolves were 4.4 pts better when he was on the court compared to off. They outscored there opponents by .5 pts when Gogui was on the court.

kekgeek1 wrote:

KG4Ever wrote:Gibson was mediocre in the plus/ minus stats and was worse than Belly last year. Dieng as a starter in previous years was vastly superior in plus/minus stats. Gibson certainly wasn't horrible but he's old and not a building block for the future. I just think he was a waste of money and took minutes away from younger guys.

You realize that the Wolves were 6.2 pts/per 100 possessions better when he was on the court when compared when he was off. What was in the 82nd percentile in the NBA. Also the Wolves were 4.5 pts better then there opponents when he was on the court what was in the 78th percentile in the NBA.

Compared to Belly were the wolves were 2.4 worse with Belly on the court compared to off what was in the 38th percentile. Then the wolves were 1 pt better then there opponents, what was in the 59th percentile.

Comparing the Gogui 2 years ago, we were decent, The wolves were 4.4 pts better when he was on the court compared to off. They outscored there opponents by .5 pts when Gogui was on the court.

In terms of RPM, Gibson wasn't all that great. You realize Gibson played with Butler and KAT and so this inflated his on court numbers compared to the reserves who played with Crawford, Bazz and Rose some of the worst plus minus guys in the league. Gibson was a tad above average, but I would rather not have had him. He's old and irrelevant to making a serious title run. I'd rather accumulate young talent and miss playoffs than fight for 7th or 8th seed.