Zach's a SG

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fondey [enjin:6644772]
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Re: Zach's a SG

Post by fondey [enjin:6644772] »

longstrangetrip wrote:
Camden wrote:You were arguing about a length disadvantage. LaVine's the same height or taller than 18 starting shooting guards, and 21 if we recognize him at 6'6" like his combine measurement indicates. Not including LaVine, the average starting shooting guard's weight is 208 lbs and eight of the SGs on this list are 200 lbs or less, not including LaVine. Guys, he's 20-years old. He's going to add weight. He just added close to 10 lbs over the summer. Also, none of these guys have the raw athleticism that he does. Stop acting like he's at a physical disadvantage when he's really not.

30. Nik Stauskas - 6'6", 205 lbs.
29. Andre Roberson - 6'7", 210 lbs.
28. Gary Harris - 6'4", 210 lbs.
27. Ben McLemore - 6'5", 195 lbs.
26. Courtney Lee - 6'5", 200 lbs.
25. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 6'5", 205 lbs.
24. C.J. McCollum - 6'4", 200 lbs.
23. Avery Bradley - 6'2", 180 lbs.
22. J.R. Smith - 6'6", 225 lbs.
21. Eric Gordon - 6'4", 215 lbs.
20. Bojan Bogdanovic - 6'8", 216 lbs.
19. Zach LaVine - 6'5", 189 lbs.
18. Rodney Hood - 6'8", 206 lbs.
17. Arron Afflalo - 6'5", 210 lbs.
16. Khris Middleton - 6'8", 234 lbs.
15. Demar DeRozan - 6'7", 220 lbs.
14. Victor Oladipo - 6'4", 210 lbs.
13. Monta Eliis - 6'3", 185 lbs.
12. J.J. Redick - 6'4", 190 lbs.
11. Wes Matthews - 6'5", 220 lbs.
10. Jordan Clarkson - 6'5", 194 lbs.
9. Danny Green - 6'6", 215 lbs.
8. P.J. Hairston - 6'6", 230 lbs.
7. Bradley Beal - 6'5", 207 lbs.
6. Kent Bazemore - 6'5", 201 lbs.
5. Jimmy Butler - 6'7", 220 lbs.
4. Brandon Knight - 6'3", 189 lbs.
3. Dwyane Wade - 6'4", 220 lbs.
2. Klay Thompson - 6'7", 215 lbs.
1. James Harden - 6'5", 220 lbs.


Hmm...a quick look at that list tells me that Zach is middle of the pack in SG height, but weighs less than every other SG except Ellis, Knight and Bradley. I wonder if that's why those three guys are considered by many to be more PGs than SGs...good coaches don't like unattractive size disadvantages. I'll match up Zach against those three and a few others any day at SG (although I still prefer him at PG), but don't make the kid go up night after night against so many of the other guys who have 30+ pounds on him...that's just not fair to him. I agree that he is likely to put on some weight (although we keep waiting for some guys like KG to fill out, and some never do), but the issue is not where he belongs down the road...it's where he belongs now. I have no problem with Zach backing up Wig at the 2 eventually if he gets stronger, Martin leaves, and Tyus (or someone else) proves to be an adequate backup to Ricky...and Ricky shows he can play 70 games. That very well may be his final destiny. But until those three (or 4) things happen, Zach fits this team better at PG...and stats show he's doing a terrific job relative to other young PGs. Give the guy a chance to continue developing at a position that takes almost every NBA time to master! He's either going to become a very good PG, or as Flip said so many times, these PG minutes will help him become a better SG down the road.

The issue here seems to me to be that the "Zach needs to be a SG" crowd is relying mostly on eye test and opinion, while the other side (admittedly a lonely side with pretty much only Sam, Jim Pete and me currently!) points to hard data and matchup size to support their case. I'm going to continue to favor the latter until the stats prove that Sam is wrong. If that ever happens, and Zach starts delivering stats at the bottom of his peer group rather than the top, I'll gladly move out of my lonely place and join all of you. Until then, all the hard data tells me Zach is right where he belongs.


Did you read http://www.canishoopus.com/2015/11/14/9733532/recognizing-the-problem-the-wolves-and-the-point-guard-positionThis?

"So far this season, when Zach LaVine is on the floor, the Wolves are roughly 9 points/100 possessions worse than when he's not. This is not entirely on him, of course, but it's a baseline for the following information: in the few minutes he's been on the floor along with Ricky Rubio, the Wolves are +88/100 (in just over 9 minutes). Last night was the first time LaVine shared extended minutes on the court with Andre Miller, checking into the game with three minutes left in the third quarter. The two of them shared the court for the final 15 minutes of the game, and were +16 points over that time.

In other words, in the roughly 10% of his minutes this season that LaVine has shared the court with a point guard, hence occupying the shooting guard position, he's been a part of successful lineups; in the vast majority of his minutes when he's been asked to play the point guard position, the team has been badly outplayed."

Granted, this is a small sample size, but I'm curious what hard data you or Sam have that says Lavine is best suited at PG right now.

I'm assuming everyone else agrees the Wolves have been performing better so far when Lavine plays the 2 rather than point. If playing PG now will help him become a better basketball player later in his career, then at least that seems reasonable given that he develops into something great. But what Sam Mitchell is saying in interviews is that Zach Lavine will be a PG in this league. I just don't see on the court what would convince you or him of that. All of his weaknesses become glaringly obvious when he is asked to play PG. Will having him play PG force him to improve on those weaknesses? Yes, but I don't see decision making/running the offense becoming a strength of Lavine's game. Rather, I see his current strengths, shooting/quick step/aggressive drives to the basket continuing to develop and becoming the strong point of his game. If this were a player that was 6'0, we'd label him as an undersized SG/combo guard and he'd make or break it as a backup guard in this league. But he is 6'5 and absolutely capable of guarding opposing SGs.

Here's what I really hope, all of Mitchell's talk about Lavine playing PG is complete bullshit. He recognized early on there is a logjam at the 2-3 position on this team, and until we trade Martin (which I think is inevitable), we shift Lavine over to PG so that everyone gets minutes and is happy. He still develops and gets a guaranteed 20 minutes, and I don't think any of the "Lavine is a SG" camp is that upset with these circumstances. And Mitchell is just putting on a charade to the media, instead of saying "Yea, we're shopping Martin and until he's gone, the only minutes we can get Lavine are at PG"

But if Mitchell genuinely believes Lavine is going to "make or break it as a PG in the nba":
1. our coach is stupid and shouldn't make bold statements like that to the media. keep it to yourself.
2. why is he implying that Lavine can't make it as a starting SG? This is what really drives me crazy because I see his potential I think the kid can absolutely make it as a SG, and so far, he has shown the most promise when put in that position. But here we are pigeonholing a 20 year player into a position that is new to him, he's struggling with, it's hurting our lineup's production when he's placed in it, and basically saying he will be a backup PG behind Rubio for the immediate future. It's not that I even disagree that Lavine could make it as a PG, it's that it seems much more likely so far that he makes it playing SG.
3. What the hell changed between the beginning of preseason, when Lavine was announced as our starting SG, and now? None of this adds up.
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longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
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Re: Zach's a SG

Post by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564] »

Fondey, Zach's on/off numbers that you cite are the same thing we have been hearing for the last 4 years. It doesn't matter who our backup PG is, when he's in and Ricky is out, the team always experiences a big dropoff. Zach's numbers are no different than what we got with Mo Williams, JJ Berea. Luke Ridnour, etc etc. And those guys were all experienced PG's.

Yes, Zach and Miller had a great +/- two games ago with Zach at SG, but as you said, be careful of small sample sizes, because yesterday was the exact opposite. Zach was a +9 handling the point very well all game, but after Sam blundered by putting Zach at SG lined up against a much stronger Tony Allen, Zach went -7. I'm not sure what Sam was thinking with that late-game move, and it didn't go well. As I've said before, there are times when it will be correct to put Zach at SG, but yesterday was not the right time.
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longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
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Re: Zach's a SG

Post by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564] »

Zach has played 95% of his minutes this year at PG, and the stats show he continues to improve. Here are the latest advanced stats for PGs.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/pg/sort/VORPe

Zach has moved up to 12th in PER (Rubio is 6th), 17th in VA (Rubio is 13th), and 15th in EWA (Ricky is 13th). The point guard whose advanced stats in these three areas are closest to Zach's is a guy named Chris Paul...their PERs, VA, and EWA are eerily similar. Can we all agree that those numbers represent an incredible improvement over last year, and are remarkably good for a 20-year-old kid still learning his position?

Can we give Sam a little love for staying with Zach and giving him a chance to grow into his position?


Why do I think the answer to my question is going to be no :) ?
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thedoper
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Re: Zach's a SG

Post by thedoper »

longstrangetrip wrote:Zach has played 95% of his minutes this year at PG, and the stats show he continues to improve. Here are the latest advanced stats for PGs.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/pg/sort/VORPe

Zach has moved up to 12th in PER (Rubio is 6th), 17th in VA (Rubio is 13th), and 15th in EWA (Ricky is 13th). The point guard whose advanced stats in these three areas are closest to Zach's is a guy named Chris Paul...their PERs, VA, and EWA are eerily similar. Can we all agree that those numbers represent an incredible improvement over last year, and are remarkably good for a 20-year-old kid still learning his position?

Can we give Sam a little love for staying with Zach and giving him a chance to grow into his position?


Why do I think the answer to my question is going to be no :) ?


I'll give Sam some love. I am happy seeing Zach progress so far, long ways to go still but this is going to make him a better guard regardless of playing the 1 or 2.
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khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]
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Re: Zach's a SG

Post by khans2k5 [enjin:6608728] »

longstrangetrip wrote:Zach has played 95% of his minutes this year at PG, and the stats show he continues to improve. Here are the latest advanced stats for PGs.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/pg/sort/VORPe

Zach has moved up to 12th in PER (Rubio is 6th), 17th in VA (Rubio is 13th), and 15th in EWA (Ricky is 13th). The point guard whose advanced stats in these three areas are closest to Zach's is a guy named Chris Paul...their PERs, VA, and EWA are eerily similar. Can we all agree that those numbers represent an incredible improvement over last year, and are remarkably good for a 20-year-old kid still learning his position?

Can we give Sam a little love for staying with Zach and giving him a chance to grow into his position?


Why do I think the answer to my question is going to be no :) ?


The problem is not what Zach is accomplishing as an individual. It's what the team is doing around him because he is playing PG. That's simply all that matters. PG's or in cases like Lebron, primary ball handlers need to make the guys around them better in this league. You compare Lavine's stats to CP3's. CP3 sacrifices his own stats to make guys like DJ useful on offense. CP3's usage is always in the 23-25 range when guys like Lebron and even Steph the past 3 years are in the 28-30+ range. He's a career 18-10 guy who could easily be a 25 point a night guy, but he understands the value of getting his teammates involved. Zach has improved as a player which is great, but he makes nobody around him a better player which is a problem when he's the primary ball handler.
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Shumway
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Re: Zach's a SG

Post by Shumway »

LST, I really enjoy this discussion - but I gotta pile on with the majority here.

I think you're making a great case for Zach as a basketball player. He's young and he's already producing at a reasonable level. Perhaps your case shows that Zach can be a pretty good point guard in this league. But I don't think it shows that he's a better point guard than shooting guard.

He's not Big as a SG, but I don't think he's really small either (I am assuming he'll add bulk as he matures), so when we look at his skillset - high athleticism, good shooting stroke, but lacking BB IQ, I think he's more suited to SG than he is to PG.
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longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
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Re: Zach's a SG

Post by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564] »

Hmm...reading Khans and Shumway's posts, I'm sensing a slight change in sentiment here. Maybe we're moving away from "Sam is a moron" and "how can anyone even consider Zach as a possible point guard" to a more reasoned discussion...like his usage rate is too high or he doesn't make others around him better. That's good...easier to have a discussion when we get away from the eye test in into things we can measure.
Khans, you say the only thing that matters in a PG is what is happening around him. isn't assist percentage a good place to start here? Assists means you are choosing not to score, but instead choosing to pass to someone else so they can score. Zach is still learning his position, and at 20 he should be, and his assist ratio is lower in the pack than some others. But it's clearly improving, and at 21.2 % he is almost exactly the same as Damien Lillard...and substantially ahead of Steph Curry. Are Lillard and Curry not good PG's because their assist ratios aren't as good as a pass-first PG like Rubio. Zach is always going to more of a scoring PG than a pass-first PG, but being in the middle of the pack in assist ratio shows he isn't exactly a disaster in helping his teammates either.

You also state that Zach's usage rate is too high...I believe you are making the case that a good PG can't have such a high usage rate, correct? Zach does rank 8th in usage rate, but he is in very good company...Westbrook, Curry and Lillard all rank in the top 4 on usage rate. Are you going to argue that they are not good PGs because their usage rates are too high?

This is why I like PER, because it recognizes that there are several elements that go into rating a player, and use them all to create a balanced rating. It's no surprise to me that Curry and Westbrook lead the pack in PER, and I feel awfully good that our backup PG ranks 14th. There are different kinds of PGs, and Zach will always be more of a score-first PG, just as Ricky will always be more of a pass-first PG. But PG is such a vital position on a team, I feel pretty good about having 2 young PGs in the top 20 in PER, and in very good company and still improving. When Ricky is healthy, the stats show that there is no team better set at PG than we are. I don't know why we would want to change something that is clearly looking, especially since moving Zach from PG to SG would force Wig to move away from SG where he is clearly succeeding and creating tough matchups.
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Camden [enjin:6601484]
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Re: Zach's a SG

Post by Camden [enjin:6601484] »

"...there is no team better set at PG than we are."

Westbrook/Augustin
Wall/Sessions
Irving/Williams
Bledsoe/Knight
Lillard/McCollum
Teague/Schroeder
Jackson/Jennings
Lowry/Joseph
Conley/Chalmers
Dragic/Johnson
Rondo/Collison
Beverley/Lawson
Parker/Mills
Paul/Rivers

Every one of them are better set at point guard than we are. I probably left out several teams with good cases. LaVine is a good point guard if Jamal Crawford is a good point guard. Hint: you don't want Crawford running your offense.

This "LaVine is a good point guard" argument has gone on far too long. LST, I respect the effort, but you continue to ignore what actually happens on the court. Once again, that is 50% of analysis.
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Coolbreeze44
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Re: Zach's a SG

Post by Coolbreeze44 »

I wish this discussion would morph into this argument: I don't really care where Zach plays, I just want him to get the minutes to develop. He gets those minutes when Ricky is out, he has a problem getting enough court time when Ricky plays. That needs to change.
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thedoper
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Re: Zach's a SG

Post by thedoper »

CoolBreeze44 wrote:I wish this discussion would morph into this argument: I don't really care where Zach plays, I just want him to get the minutes to develop. He gets those minutes when Ricky is out, he has a problem getting enough court time when Ricky plays. That needs to change.


I think this really is closer to the heart of the matter. I do like him getting time without Ricky and hope that he becomes best prospect at the 2. I'd rather see the advancement of Bazz into the starting 3 first though. I think in terms of immediate contributions that would yield a better lineup. I want to see Zach closer to 25 minutes. If that is split between second unit and some creative subbing to get him some run with the starters great.
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