Minnesota Sports Forum

I am not calling Payne a bust, but he is getting a lot of burn that last few games and things are not clicking yet. At 24 he doesn't have as much time.

bleedspeed177 wrote:I am not calling Payne a bust, but he is getting a lot of burn that last few games and things are not clicking yet. At 24 he doesn't have as much time.

Being 24 means his career isn't likely to be as long, but I don't see why that means he doesn't get as much time to develop as say a 19 year old. Year 3 is pretty much the benchmark year guys like Ford use to fully re-evaluate a draft so that just means Payne should hit his stride at 26 instead of 22-24 for the 1 and dones. Year 3 is when you make your decision on the first team option for rookie deals so I think he at least deserves until October in year 3 before he is written off.

khans2k5 wrote:

bleedspeed177 wrote:I am not calling Payne a bust, but he is getting a lot of burn that last few games and things are not clicking yet. At 24 he doesn't have as much time.

Being 24 means his career isn't likely to be as long, but I don't see why that means he doesn't get as much time to develop as say a 19 year old. Year 3 is pretty much the benchmark year guys like Ford use to fully re-evaluate a draft so that just means Payne should hit his stride at 26 instead of 22-24 for the 1 and dones. Year 3 is when you make your decision on the first team option for rookie deals so I think he at least deserves until October in year 3 before he is written off.

It is different though. Most 23 and 24 year old rookies don't have the same learning/improvement curve (on average) compared to 19-year olds. That's why age tends to have an inverse relationship to draft position. On average, you would expect a much steeper improvement curve over the first three years of a 19-year old than a 23 or 24-year old. Heck, look at Shabazz vs. Gorgui Dieng. Gorgui hasn't improved a lick since he first started getting regular playing time last season. Shabazz on the other hand made a huge leap from year 1 to year 2.

Again, there are exceptions. Some 19-year olds never improve (Michael Beasley comes to mind). And some older rookies really do improve a ton in three years (Stephen Curry). So this isn't an immutable law of physics. But the averages (and common sense) tell us that the younger you are when coming into the league, the more upside you have from whatever base you are starting at.

As for Payne, I agree that it's too early to label him anything at this point. But his clock is ticking a LOT faster than, say, Zach LaVine's.

76ers claimed GR3. Good for him

monsterpile wrote:76ers claimed GR3. Good for him

There's been a pretty consistent pattern of players that leave Minnesota this year blowing up with their new team. GR3 will probably play like the 2nd coming of his dad!

bleedspeed177 wrote:I am not calling Payne a bust, but he is getting a lot of burn that last few games and things are not clicking yet. At 24 he doesn't have as much time.

You aren't calling him a bust, yet your previous post literally starts with: "Seriously Payne is a bust." Which one is it?

I'll say this. I was very surprised that Payne went as high as 15th last summer. I thought the Hawks reached for him.

Here's a neat little interview with our newest Wolf...

http://www.nba.com/timberwolves/news/shootaround-access-march-11-justin-hamilton