NCAA Tourney Thread

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TheFuture
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Re: NCAA Tourney Thread

Post by TheFuture »

CoolBreeze44 wrote:The question isn't whether Russell can play, it's where in the top 4 he should be ranked. No one is saying he isn't a top prospect. It's my opinion that his physicality has him at #4. I like the two bigs and Mudiay a little better.


I believe Russell has a 6'9 or 6'10 wingspan, and there is definitely room for him to grow yet. In my opinion, skill does trump athleticism, and most guys who aren't overly athletic have spent more time honing skills at every level of competition. With that said, I rank the players this way..

For potential it goes Towns, Mudiay, Russell, Okafor for me
For team fit/need i'd go Towns, Russell, Okafor, Mudiay.

According to those lists, I'm taking Towns first, followed by Russell, then Mudiay, and lastly Okafor.

Hate it, or love it. I realize ill likely receive some negative review on how low I have Okafor. I'm just not a huge Okafor fan. He scores well, but rebounds like a brook lopez. Can't play pick and roll D, doesn't intimidate at the rim. Can't shoot free throws, when he'll likely get fouled a lot around the basket. I believe I remember a lot of people saying you wouldn't want DeAndre Jordan because you do not want a player on your team who can't shoot free throws? Well, why is Okafor an exception when he shoots 50%? He is not Duncan, he isn't al Jefferson. He projects worse than both in overall game.

Towns has the most potential of all 4, but he is also one of, if not the biggest risk of the 4. A risk i'd gladly take though. He is athletic, but he's not a very smooth athlete. Maybe that's just because you see him next to WCS, who is about as smooth as they come for a 7 footer. Towns shoots the free throw decent, has shown the ability to develop a mid range game, maybe further? He does have post moves, though not very polished. His defense is very good, both man to man and help defense, and he is enough of an athlete to play the pick and roll well. He has the chance to provide low post scoring, be a threat in the pick and pop, all while providing good defense. That's what I want in my big. He does kind of run funny though, no? Him and Dieng would be quite the spectacle going up and down the court. hah

I have a hard time deciding between Russell and Mudiay for the 2nd slot, for now I put Russell there because I simply have seen more of his play. Mudiay's scouting reports are very exciting though, and his potential is also off the charts.

Russell is a cool cat. A veteran's mind. He plays the game so smooth, and makes the right play, the one given by the defense. If he had a bit more of a team around him at OSU I believe he'd be putting up even better numbers. He really carried that whole team all year. He can shoot, he can drive, he can pass. He'd be a great fit next to Rubio, or even LaVine. The issue with him is his defense. I think some of his lack of effort has to do with him being the man on offense game in and game out, and exerting so much energy on that end of the court. I expect him to be at least an average defender.

Mudiay is the athlete that Russell is not. He can get right or left as if both are his main hands. He's strong, and finishes at the rim. Great vision, great ball handler, great speed. The issue is his shooting, and that's one reason i'd take him after Russell. I don't have much more info on Mudiay at this time, as I just have not been able to watch much tape on him. Based on potential, Mudiay could go #1 this year. I think his decision to skip SMU moves him down, but I take him at #3 over Okafor.

I wish this season would be over. Outside of Wiggins, and to some extent LaVine, the only exciting thing about this season is the thought of the draft. Sad, but true.
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khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]
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Re: NCAA Tourney Thread

Post by khans2k5 [enjin:6608728] »

The announcers yesterday mentioned along with being able to see it in Okafor's form that his free throw shooting has been more due to confidence than form. When he started out on a hot streak he took a couple mid-range jumpers with confidence and hit both of them (one from the elbow). Okafor has touch, but the ball is also the size of a softball for him so I see him at best probably a 70% FT shooter. That is good enough to me given everything else he brings offensively in terms of pure scoring, efficiency and offensive IQ.


I just think watching him play that I don't want to be the team who passes on him because people seem to be capping his potential as pretty much he is what he is, but he is such a polished player at his age that who knows what he could become if he works on other parts of his game. He has good physical tools so I don't get why his ceiling seems to be capped so low when he's been the most dominant of the 4. Shaq couldn't hit free throws either but he was such a dominant offensive force that it didn't matter. How many games did hack a Shaq actually help the other team win? If Okafor can hit even 70% of his free throws you just can't hack him because it puts you in foul trouble for an advantage you just don't get enough return on to actually win the game and it puts us in the bonus quicker so you can't foul anyone else but him or its free throws.
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TheFuture
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Re: NCAA Tourney Thread

Post by TheFuture »

khans2k5 wrote:The announcers yesterday mentioned along with being able to see it in Okafor's form that his free throw shooting has been more due to confidence than form. When he started out on a hot streak he took a couple mid-range jumpers with confidence and hit both of them (one from the elbow). Okafor has touch, but the ball is also the size of a softball for him so I see him at best probably a 70% FT shooter. That is good enough to me given everything else he brings offensively in terms of pure scoring, efficiency and offensive IQ.


I just think watching him play that I don't want to be the team who passes on him because people seem to be capping his potential as pretty much he is what he is, but he is such a polished player at his age that who knows what he could become if he works on other parts of his game. He has good physical tools so I don't get why his ceiling seems to be capped so low when he's been the most dominant of the 4. Shaq couldn't hit free throws either but he was such a dominant offensive force that it didn't matter. How many games did hack a Shaq actually help the other team win? If Okafor can hit even 70% of his free throws you just can't hack him because it puts you in foul trouble for an advantage you just don't get enough return on to actually win the game and it puts us in the bonus quicker so you can't foul anyone else but him or its free throws.


Shaq is a bad comparison. The only thing Okafor does that resembles Shaq is scoring. Rebounding and Blocked Shots is a completely different story. Those are the things that scare me about Okafor, especially considering how big he is compared to other college bigs. Shaq averaged 12 rebounds and 3.6 blocks a game as a freshman. Okafor's 8.7 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game as a 7 foot man-child in college is enough to question him for me.
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Monster
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Re: NCAA Tourney Thread

Post by Monster »

Watching Okafor yeaterday for the first time my issue with him is he just doesn't seem to be that physical which is somewhat reflected in his rebounding numbers not being impressive. He just isn't boxing guys out breasting for rebounds etc.

It's tough for all these guys at the top because they are so young and yeah they aren't a finished product but we are looking at some talented guys so like Q says you have to split hairs. I need to watch some more of Russell I haven't seen much of him to be honest. This team needs a big more but Russell might be tough to pass up. The overall numbers he put up are better in some key categories than what Mayo put up at USC and that's pretty good.
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khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]
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Re: NCAA Tourney Thread

Post by khans2k5 [enjin:6608728] »

There are only 12 bigs in the entire league that average more than 10 boards per game. We are talking about 1 RPG to get in that list. Pek has never averaged 9< in his career, but people give him credit for being a big body in the way allowing his teammates to get boards more easily. How many times have you seen his man get the board instead of him? At the end of the day we're talking about 3 boards a game from being elite. Not good, elite. His 9 RPG's would be right in the thick of the list of rebounders in the league, but he's going to be one of only maybe 2 or 3 C's who would be a 20 PPG scorer.

We're seriously dropping him to 2-3-4 because he doesn't get 3 more RPG's or 1.5 more BPG's? Meanwhile he'll be outscoring his peers by a much bigger chuck than that. I admit he will probably be like Melo or Kyrie in terms of defensive impact, but how can you pass up that elite offensive potential in a position that is very weak in that regard right now. Some people have talked about bucking the trend and finding a new one. Maybe getting a top offensive C could be that different path that other teams just can't deal with.
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Camden [enjin:6601484]
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Re: NCAA Tourney Thread

Post by Camden [enjin:6601484] »

CoolBreeze44 wrote:The question isn't whether Russell can play, it's where in the top 4 he should be ranked. No one is saying he isn't a top prospect. It's my opinion that his physicality has him at #4. I like the two bigs and Mudiay a little better.


I've made the same point. A little while ago I posted about my concerns with Russell's ability to guard 2s in the NBA with his build. He might just be a scoring point guard and defend that position.
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thedoper
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Re: NCAA Tourney Thread

Post by thedoper »

khans2k5 wrote:There are only 12 bigs in the entire league that average more than 10 boards per game. We are talking about 1 RPG to get in that list. Pek has never averaged 9< in his career, but people give him credit for being a big body in the way allowing his teammates to get boards more easily. How many times have you seen his man get the board instead of him? At the end of the day we're talking about 3 boards a game from being elite. Not good, elite. His 9 RPG's would be right in the thick of the list of rebounders in the league, but he's going to be one of only maybe 2 or 3 C's who would be a 20 PPG scorer.

We're seriously dropping him to 2-3-4 because he doesn't get 3 more RPG's or 1.5 more BPG's? Meanwhile he'll be outscoring his peers by a much bigger chuck than that. I admit he will probably be like Melo or Kyrie in terms of defensive impact, but how can you pass up that elite offensive potential in a position that is very weak in that regard right now. Some people have talked about bucking the trend and finding a new one. Maybe getting a top offensive C could be that different path that other teams just can't deal with.


Great post. He is a freshman. The expectation is that there should be lots to work on in his game. Seems like the more hype/press from the outset with a player the more nitpicking. If Towns had started the year as the consensus top prospect he probably would have dropped to 4 or 5 on many draft boards by now.

I think he will be better than Melo or Kyrie defensively. I think his main problem is that he is just such a great scorer that people expect more with his rebounding and D. He is not bad for a freshman big right now. Just an average man defender and a good (but not great) rebounder.
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Camden [enjin:6601484]
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Re: NCAA Tourney Thread

Post by Camden [enjin:6601484] »

khans, forgive me if I'm wrong here, but wasn't it you who argued that scoring is easily replaceable in other positions whereas rim protection is a massive component to what bigs need to bring to the table?

The point I'm making is that we've had bigs that are/were good/great scorers who have defensive issues (and Okafor DOES have issues), and we've gone no where in the win column because the painted area is a free pass for opposing teams. Repeating this trend and selecting Okafor when Towns, who could potentially dominate both ends of the floor, is available wouldn't sit well with me, as the board already knows.
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Camden [enjin:6601484]
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Re: NCAA Tourney Thread

Post by Camden [enjin:6601484] »

Also think it's unfair to just throw out Okafor's free-throw shooting like it isn't a big deal. He's making 51.6% of them this year. That is horrific. I do think he'll improve that part of his game because I think he'll be a dedicated worker, BUT I agree about his hand size being a problem in that regard. Shaq and other bigs with huge hands just can't/couldn't figure it out. And that's why I have an issue with you saying "if he could get to 70% at the line". That's unlikely based on all things above.
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thedoper
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Re: NCAA Tourney Thread

Post by thedoper »

Camden wrote:khans, forgive me if I'm wrong here, but wasn't it you who argued that scoring is easily replaceable in other positions whereas rim protection is a massive component to what bigs need to bring to the table?

The point I'm making is that we've had bigs that are/were good/great scorers who have defensive issues (and Okafor DOES have issues), and we've gone no where in the win column because the painted area is a free pass for opposing teams. Repeating this trend and selecting Okafor when Towns, who could potentially dominate both ends of the floor, is available wouldn't sit well with me, as the board already knows.


Towns may have more defensive potential but has huge issues too. He could be very foul prone for a while from what I've seen and although he is athletic still needs some work on his labored footwork. The idea that Okafor doesn't have defensive potential is a bit silly to me at this point in his development.

We have never had a big with the potential to be the efficient scorer in the paint that Okafor is. Not many teams ever have because he is one of the most efficient scorers to come out of college ball in a while. Okafor will finish at the hoop guaranteed. That is saying a lot.
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