The Rosas Strategy

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

In 5 years it will be 75% of shots taken are 3s.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

In 5 years it will be 75% of shots taken are 3s.

God, I hope not. It's already too much as it is.

[Lipoli390]

Drew - Let's not forget the addition of Treveon Graham. He hit 29.7% of his threes last season on 3.7 attempts. Talk about a bad shooter, Treveon hit only 33.5% of his field goal attempts last season with a career FG average of 39.6%. Ty Wallace didn't play much last season, but he played 28.4 minutes per game his first season and took a whopping 1.3 shots per game from behind the arc. Napier took more threes last season (4.1) than in any of his prior 5 seasons, but ended up with his 2nd lowest 3-point percentage at 33.3%. Vonleh had only 2 three-point attempts per game last season, hitting 33.6% of them.

Rosas says he expects the Wolves to take more threes. Based on the 3-point percentages of the players we've acquired, I don't think I want us taking more threes. I'd say we've taken more than just a step back in 3-point shooting with the personnel additions and subtractions this summer. It's more like 2 steps back, maybe 3. And that's 2-3 steps back from an already bad 3-point shooting team.

I like the additions of Bell and Vonleh because of their upsides and the fact they can help improve the Wolves terrible rebounding from last season - even though Bell will never be a shooter and Vonleh hasn't proven himself to be anything approaching a stretch big. But I honestly don't understand the Ty Wallace and Treveon Graham additions at all. Rosas has apparently made it a point to add shooting guards who can't shoot. And it's scary to think of Napier as our backup PG for the often injured Jeff Teague.

All of this has to be a strategy to get a higher lottery pick next summer. I'm OK with that, provided it's intentional.

[crazy-canuck [enjin:18955461]]

Rosas made the focus on defense and rebounding. He brought a lot of positional flexibility and size because theres is obviously a plan on how he wants to play.

If all these minimum contract guys could shoot, defend, and had size, we wouldn't be getting them for peanuts. 3 pt shooting may or may not take a step back, but i think we will take more and make more at the expense of our mid range shots (especially wiggs). I think we will be better this year.

[Monster]

Its clear Rosa has brought in (for the most part) players that shoot 3s and we let go of ones that didnt (Saric and Tolliver being the exceptions - both backups).

I like your points in general in that post, but is that accurate?

Out

Saric, 38% on 3.7 attempts per game last year
Rose, 37% on 2.9 attempts per game last year
Tolliver, 38% on 3.3 attempts per game last year
Cam Reynolds, 42% on 2.7 attempts per game last year
Taj, 32%
Tyus, 32%

In
Jarrett Culver, 38% 3FG% as freshman and 30% as sophomore
Shabazz Napier, career 35% career
Jay Nowell, 35% 3FG% as freshman and 44% as sophomore on 3.2 attempts per game
Noah Vonleh, career 32% 3FG%, max 2 3PA per game last year
Jake Layman, career 30% 3FG%, up to 32.6% last year on 2.5 attempts per game
Jordan Bell, has shot only 6 3PA in his career, career 65% FT%
Ty Wallace, career 24% 3FG%, 53% FT% last year

Seems like there are good shooters and bad shooters both going out and coming in, although I'd say overall we took a step back in terms of 3PT shooting. Saric, Tolliver, and Reynolds helped, and I think they could have shot more if the offense demanded it.

As for the group coming in, two of the key shooters we're relying on coming in are our rookies, Culver and Nowell. While Nowell showed some promise last year that suggests he could become a real deep threat for us to stretch the floor with, Culver's shot is more suspect. Shabazz Napier has more experience, but do we really want him on the floor?

Getting Covington back should help, although he has had bad shooting stretches in his career. Okogie REALLY has to improve this area of his game.

The analysis on the 3PT shooting in this thread has been interesting. Keep it up.

Another way to look at 3 point shooting going out and coming in

Outgoing
Minutes played 8652
3's made 347

Incoming (players that actually played in the league last year)
Minutes played 6163
3's made 223

That isn't exactly inspiring (honestly seems more even at best while getting young and better defensively) but there are some reasons for feeling like it's better than those numbers.

For example Napier is a guy that could help the equation. He played about a third of the minutes that Rose and Tyus (94 combined made 3's) did and made 76 3's.

The real question to me is are we really going to be a team that encourages and enables volume 3 point shooting? For example Portland isn't exactly a 3 point happy franchise they are more middle of the road. Could Jake Layman boast his volume? The Nets are one of the teams that gets them up and has boasted various players volume coming from other organizations. Napier and Graham are examples of this. Will we boast the volume of a guy like Vonleh who may be a guy also developing his range? Could we get teague to bunch up his attempts by even 1 a game? I'd bet Wiggins is gonna be jacking up more also. The really good shooters especially volume ones are typically expensive. We may need to manufacture some shooting and...I know it's a leap for this franchise but maybe develop some guys.

[Monster]

Drew - Let's not forget the addition of Treveon Graham. He hit 29.7% of his threes last season on 3.7 attempts. Talk about a bad shooter, Treveon hit only 33.5% of his field goal attempts last season with a career FG average of 39.6%. Ty Wallace didn't play much last season, but he played 28.4 minutes per game his first season and took a whopping 1.3 shots per game from behind the arc. Napier took more threes last season (4.1) than in any of his prior 5 seasons, but ended up with his 2nd lowest 3-point percentage at 33.3%. Vonleh had only 2 three-point attempts per game last season, hitting 33.6% of them.

Rosas says he expects the Wolves to take more threes. Based on the 3-point percentages of the players we've acquired, I don't think I want us taking more threes. I'd say we've taken more than just a step back in 3-point shooting with the personnel additions and subtractions this summer. It's more like 2 steps back, maybe 3. And that's 2-3 steps back from an already bad 3-point shooting team.

I like the additions of Bell and Vonleh because of their upsides and the fact they can help improve the Wolves terrible rebounding from last season - even though Bell will never be a shooter and Vonleh hasn't proven himself to be anything approaching a stretch big. But I honestly don't understand the Ty Wallace and Treveon Graham additions at all. Rosas has apparently made it a point to add shooting guards who can't shoot. And it's scary to think of Napier as our backup PG for the often injured Jeff Teague.

All of this has to be a strategy to get a higher lottery pick next summer. I'm OK with that, provided it's intentional.

Graham shot the 3 well in low volume previously. I know one of his injuries last year was a shoulder injury. His 3 point rate doubled playing for the Nets.

People are really undervaluing Napier.

[apollotsg [enjin:6592798]]

Here is the logic I used behind the 3p shooting increase:

Rate %
Covington .604 .372
Napier .524 .333
Vonleh .311 .336
Culver .292 .304
(I am holding onto that Culver shoots more like his freshman year at close to .400 with a .400 rate as well)

These are the guys that we let go, Saric being the only one that I think fit what Rosa is building but this is only 1 part of his game.
rate %
Saric .449 .383
Jones .283 .317
Rose .194 .370
Gibson .063 .324


I would also like to point out that Wiggins and Towns 3 point rate is trending up as well.

[crazy-canuck [enjin:18955461]]

Im expecting teague to jump up. For some reason our offense always seems to have a pg with an open 3ball, yet our pgs for have been reluctant to let it fly.

I don't teague is a bad shooter either.

[apollotsg [enjin:6592798]]

Taking a look at some other metric - I looked at the incoming vs outgoing in the new "Draymond"

Napier was a +1.92 vs Jones who was a -1.79 = almost a 4 point swing per 100
-0.04 Vonleh vs -0.47 Gibson
Culver vs Rose (Rose was actually positive)

[Tactical unit]

Rosas made the focus on defense and rebounding. He brought a lot of positional flexibility and size because theres is obviously a plan on how he wants to play.

If all these minimum contract guys could shoot, defend, and had size, we wouldn't be getting them for peanuts. 3 pt shooting may or may not take a step back, but i think we will take more and make more at the expense of our mid range shots (especially wiggs). I think we will be better this year.

Pretty much exactly what I was going to say you can't expect to get deals on guys that can already shoot and are athletic. IMO Rosas plan is to get these players brought in to improve on there shooting and he likes there other skills. I think this is possible, these players will have larger roles and opportunity, good development and hard work is the key this year. It will determine weather MN is lottery bound or a competitive team.