Minnesota Sports Forum

Big O wrote:13 and 8 is only slightly better than the results from the last 20 games. I know the schedule is brutal but our squad is also better than they were 20 games ago. The other reason for this prediction is if they do win 13 more my preseason win total prediction would prove correct.

Heh, that's right. At the time, most of us thought you were a doomsday pessimist. Now it requires homer optimism just to get to that win total!

Mikkeman wrote:I think it will be really tight race between Denver, Minnesota, Dallas and Portland. I was already almost leaving Portland off from the group but they show last night with a win against good playoff team Oklahoma that they should not be forgotten.

Good thing is that we have still three games left against Portland. If Wolves win all of them, I can't see them ending below Portland in standings.

Dallas and Denver are more problematic since we won't have any games left against them. Maybe now after Mudiay came back from injury, they will hand him starting job again and it will be enough to drop Denver below us in final standings. Wes Matthews might miss still couple of more games because of hip injury, maybe that will help us keeping Dallas behind.

I love it - when a guy coming back from injury for another team actually helps our cause!

We are absolutely going to need a good dose of luck along the way.

Mikkeman wrote:I think it will be really tight race between Denver, Minnesota, Dallas and Portland. I was already almost leaving Portland off from the group but they show last night with a win against good playoff team Oklahoma that they should not be forgotten.

Good thing is that we have still three games left against Portland. If Wolves win all of them, I can't see them ending below Portland in standings.

Dallas and Denver are more problematic since we won't have any games left against them. Maybe now after Mudiay came back from injury, they will hand him starting job again and it will be enough to drop Denver below us in final standings. Wes Matthews might miss still couple of more games because of hip injury, maybe that will help us keeping Dallas behind.

Mik, why would you think we could go 3-0 against Portland? That would be a large deviation from history and probability. Nothing would make me happier, but getting two of those games would be huge.

Q12543 wrote:

Mikkeman wrote:I think it will be really tight race between Denver, Minnesota, Dallas and Portland. I was already almost leaving Portland off from the group but they show last night with a win against good playoff team Oklahoma that they should not be forgotten.

Good thing is that we have still three games left against Portland. If Wolves win all of them, I can't see them ending below Portland in standings.

Dallas and Denver are more problematic since we won't have any games left against them. Maybe now after Mudiay came back from injury, they will hand him starting job again and it will be enough to drop Denver below us in final standings. Wes Matthews might miss still couple of more games because of hip injury, maybe that will help us keeping Dallas behind.

I love it - when a guy coming back from injury for another team actually helps our cause!

We are absolutely going to need a good dose of luck along the way.

Mudiay is very much their Zach LaVine...an exciting player with enormous upside who still ends up hurting his team more than helping. I haven't seen his on/offs, but my eye test tells me they are going to be very bad like Zach's. I attribute some of their bad peripheral numbers to coaching...their coaches recognize their potential and really want them to be stars, but use them in an inappropriate manner for the contribution they are making.

There's no question that Mudiay's return is very good news for the Wolves' slim playoff chances.

Q and Tim...as long as we are in a playoff race (and staying 3 or fewer games out and continuing to get upsets tells me we are indeed in a race), pls update your work periodically to keep track of where you think we are.

(otherwise I have to do it, and I'm lazy these days)

longstrangetrip wrote:Q and Tim...as long as we are in a playoff race (and staying 3 or fewer games out and continuing to get upsets tells me we are indeed in a race), pls update your work periodically to keep track of where you think we are.

(otherwise I have to do it, and I'm lazy these days)

My work is a simple comparison of actual results versus original prediction model and doesn't really tie into the playoff race as much. Mikkeman and Tim probably have more comprehensive models for that.

So far, the Wolves are 1.5 games ahead of the pace I thought they would be when I first laid out my prediction for the stretch run. That's a good thing!

longstrangetrip wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

Mikkeman wrote:I think it will be really tight race between Denver, Minnesota, Dallas and Portland. I was already almost leaving Portland off from the group but they show last night with a win against good playoff team Oklahoma that they should not be forgotten.

Good thing is that we have still three games left against Portland. If Wolves win all of them, I can't see them ending below Portland in standings.

Dallas and Denver are more problematic since we won't have any games left against them. Maybe now after Mudiay came back from injury, they will hand him starting job again and it will be enough to drop Denver below us in final standings. Wes Matthews might miss still couple of more games because of hip injury, maybe that will help us keeping Dallas behind.

I love it - when a guy coming back from injury for another team actually helps our cause!

We are absolutely going to need a good dose of luck along the way.

Mudiay is very much their Zach LaVine...an exciting player with enormous upside who still ends up hurting his team more than helping. I haven't seen his on/offs, but my eye test tells me they are going to be very bad like Zach's. I attribute some of their bad peripheral numbers to coaching...their coaches recognize their potential and really want them to be stars, but use them in an inappropriate manner for the contribution they are making.

There's no question that Mudiay's return is very good news for the Wolves' slim playoff chances.

The difference is Mudiay doesn't seem to actually be good at anything.

monsterpile wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

Mikkeman wrote:I think it will be really tight race between Denver, Minnesota, Dallas and Portland. I was already almost leaving Portland off from the group but they show last night with a win against good playoff team Oklahoma that they should not be forgotten.

Good thing is that we have still three games left against Portland. If Wolves win all of them, I can't see them ending below Portland in standings.

Dallas and Denver are more problematic since we won't have any games left against them. Maybe now after Mudiay came back from injury, they will hand him starting job again and it will be enough to drop Denver below us in final standings. Wes Matthews might miss still couple of more games because of hip injury, maybe that will help us keeping Dallas behind.

I love it - when a guy coming back from injury for another team actually helps our cause!

We are absolutely going to need a good dose of luck along the way.

Mudiay is very much their Zach LaVine...an exciting player with enormous upside who still ends up hurting his team more than helping. I haven't seen his on/offs, but my eye test tells me they are going to be very bad like Zach's. I attribute some of their bad peripheral numbers to coaching...their coaches recognize their potential and really want them to be stars, but use them in an inappropriate manner for the contribution they are making.

There's no question that Mudiay's return is very good news for the Wolves' slim playoff chances.

The difference is Mudiay doesn't seem to actually be good at anything.

There have been two moments when I've watched a much ballyhooed draft prospect and written him off immediately. I'm 2-for-2.

Hasheem Thabeet in a big game vs. another good team. He was on the ground more than on his feet in that game. And he got up slow every time. No heart. No legs. No future. It seemed so obvious to me.

And Mudiay. The only highlight I saw of him in China was an air-balled free throw. I'll give big guys a pass for one of those on occasion. But not a Point Guard.

longstrangetrip wrote:
Mudiay is very much their Zach LaVine...an exciting player with enormous upside who still ends up hurting his team more than helping. I haven't seen his on/offs, but my eye test tells me they are going to be very bad like Zach's. I attribute some of their bad peripheral numbers to coaching...their coaches recognize their potential and really want them to be stars, but use them in an inappropriate manner for the contribution they are making.

There's no question that Mudiay's return is very good news for the Wolves' slim playoff chances.

LST, Mudiay is much worse than Lavine. While it's at last debatable whether Wolves are better team with or without Lavine, there is no question that Denver is better without Mudiay. Mudiay has -10 on/off numbers that is same level than rookie Lavine had.

CoolBreeze44 wrote:

Mikkeman wrote:I think it will be really tight race between Denver, Minnesota, Dallas and Portland. I was already almost leaving Portland off from the group but they show last night with a win against good playoff team Oklahoma that they should not be forgotten.

Good thing is that we have still three games left against Portland. If Wolves win all of them, I can't see them ending below Portland in standings.

Dallas and Denver are more problematic since we won't have any games left against them. Maybe now after Mudiay came back from injury, they will hand him starting job again and it will be enough to drop Denver below us in final standings. Wes Matthews might miss still couple of more games because of hip injury, maybe that will help us keeping Dallas behind.

Mik, why would you think we could go 3-0 against Portland? That would be a large deviation from history and probability. Nothing would make me happier, but getting two of those games would be huge.

Cool, I'm by no means sure that we could go 3-0 against Portland. I just meant that since they have those three games left, Wolves won't necessarily need other teams help to get past Portland in standings. Second Portland game will be especially challenging for Wolves since it's second game of back to back for them.

I think that Wolves have been playing better than Portland lately (Wolves have 14-14 record from beginning of the year vs Portland's 10-14 record), so they should have realistic change to beat them even in their house. Portland is also one team that Wolves should be probably better without Zach in starting five. Rush instead of Zach doesn't affect whom will guard Wiggins (it will either Harkless or Aminu all the time) but in defensive end Rush against Harkless and Wiggins against McCollum or Lillard is much better match-up than Wiggins against Harkless and Lavine against McCollum.

Nurkic has been very good addition for them but I don't see that he would have any change to defend KAT. Actually I think KAT is really an impossible match-up for Portland. They don't have anyone in their roster that would have any change to defend him. Wiggins is almost as difficult match-up for them. Even tough both Harkless and Aminu has good size, they don't have enough quickness to defend Wig. I think Dunn and Wiggins have much better chance to slow down Lillard and McCollum.