Minnesota Sports Forum

I only caught a few moments of the Barreiro show today, but they were talking about Noah. They said the latest rumors were that the Knicks were going to offer $18 million to Noah (I didn't hear the # of years, and of course, everything is still unofficial). That is a lot more realistic than the $30 million per year we were hearing last week, but still more than I would want to shell out for Noah.

Q12543 wrote:

60WinTim wrote:I am just figuring out that Thibs is not even pretending to go after any of the top tier FAs. We will have to wait until most of them commit, then we will go fishing. Which includes guys like Brandon Bass.

This means Deng is likely a no-go. :-(

Yeah, you don't hear our names thrown around much when it comes to some of the big dogs. We may want to temper some of that Top 4 in the West chatter for a bit....Hell, we have LST thinking we're going to out-perform what OKC did this year! That would take another major, major upgrade somewhere on the roster in my opinion.

Assuming we just do some small-time stuff in free agency, I think .500 is a perfectly reasonable goal for this team. They are still very young.

Now, if we somehow add Deng, Batum, or Horford to the mix, all bets are off.....but those moves just might be a year or two pre-mature. We shall see....

Wait, am I being mocked here, Q? Unacceptable! In all fairness to me (and there's nobody I like being fair to more) my 56-win prediction came with the assumption that we land a big-name free agent...my favorite being Deng, which allows Wig and Zach to assume roles that are more suited to their current development level (SG and 6th man, respectively). But let's examine your suggestion that .500 is a reasonable goal if we don't make a splash in free agency. Since our developing youngsters finished the last 1/4 of the season at .500, that would mean our winning pace for 2016-17 would be identical to the last quarter of 2015-6. Are you suggesting that our youngsters aren't going to continue their upward trajectory? Or that a Thibs-coached team isn't capable of winning just a little more frequently than a Sam-coached team was at the end of the year? Or both? History shows that good NBA players make big leaps between their 1st and 2nd and 2nd and 3rd years, and we have three important pieces at those levels. I'm assuming that our youngsters are going to continue the great improvement they showed toward the end of last year, and if Thibs is truly an upgrade over Sam, I think Wolves' fans should not be at all satisfied with a .500 record next year, unless we get hit bad with the injury stick again.

As for the Wolves not being included in many free agency rumors, I don't know that that means much. If we've learned anything about the new regime, it's that they are as closed-mouth and private as any group in the NBA. We may not hear anything real about any free agent moves until the deal is done.

longstrangetrip wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

60WinTim wrote:I am just figuring out that Thibs is not even pretending to go after any of the top tier FAs. We will have to wait until most of them commit, then we will go fishing. Which includes guys like Brandon Bass.

This means Deng is likely a no-go. :-(

Yeah, you don't hear our names thrown around much when it comes to some of the big dogs. We may want to temper some of that Top 4 in the West chatter for a bit....Hell, we have LST thinking we're going to out-perform what OKC did this year! That would take another major, major upgrade somewhere on the roster in my opinion.

Assuming we just do some small-time stuff in free agency, I think .500 is a perfectly reasonable goal for this team. They are still very young.

Now, if we somehow add Deng, Batum, or Horford to the mix, all bets are off.....but those moves just might be a year or two pre-mature. We shall see....

Wait, am I being mocked here, Q? Unacceptable! In all fairness to me (and there's nobody I like being fair to more) my 56-win prediction came with the assumption that we land a big-name free agent...my favorite being Deng, which allows Wig and Zach to assume roles that are more suited to their current development level (SG and 6th man, respectively). But let's examine your suggestion that .500 is a reasonable goal if we don't make a splash in free agency. Since our developing youngsters finished the last 1/4 of the season at .500, that would mean our winning pace for 2016-17 would be identical to the last quarter of 2015-6. Are you suggesting that our youngsters aren't going to continue their upward trajectory? Or that a Thibs-coached team isn't capable of winning just a little more frequently than a Sam-coached team was at the end of the year? Or both? History shows that good NBA players make big leaps between their 1st and 2nd and 2nd and 3rd years, and we have three important pieces at those levels. I'm assuming that our youngsters are going to continue the great improvement they showed toward the end of last year, and if Thibs is truly an upgrade over Sam, I think Wolves' fans should not be at all satisfied with a .500 record next year, unless we get hit bad with the injury stick again.

As for the Wolves not being included in many free agency rumors, I don't know that that means much. If we've learned anything about the new regime, it's that they are as closed-mouth and private as any group in the NBA. We may not hear anything real about any free agent moves until the deal is done.

The last 20 games are the worst time to evaluate teams. 1/4 teams are tanking, 1/4 are resting players regularly and limiting minutes. 1/4 are actually trying hard and are good and 1/4 are actually trying hard and aren't good enough for it to matter.

khans2k5 wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

60WinTim wrote:I am just figuring out that Thibs is not even pretending to go after any of the top tier FAs. We will have to wait until most of them commit, then we will go fishing. Which includes guys like Brandon Bass.

This means Deng is likely a no-go. :-(

Yeah, you don't hear our names thrown around much when it comes to some of the big dogs. We may want to temper some of that Top 4 in the West chatter for a bit....Hell, we have LST thinking we're going to out-perform what OKC did this year! That would take another major, major upgrade somewhere on the roster in my opinion.

Assuming we just do some small-time stuff in free agency, I think .500 is a perfectly reasonable goal for this team. They are still very young.

Now, if we somehow add Deng, Batum, or Horford to the mix, all bets are off.....but those moves just might be a year or two pre-mature. We shall see....

Wait, am I being mocked here, Q? Unacceptable! In all fairness to me (and there's nobody I like being fair to more) my 56-win prediction came with the assumption that we land a big-name free agent...my favorite being Deng, which allows Wig and Zach to assume roles that are more suited to their current development level (SG and 6th man, respectively). But let's examine your suggestion that .500 is a reasonable goal if we don't make a splash in free agency. Since our developing youngsters finished the last 1/4 of the season at .500, that would mean our winning pace for 2016-17 would be identical to the last quarter of 2015-6. Are you suggesting that our youngsters aren't going to continue their upward trajectory? Or that a Thibs-coached team isn't capable of winning just a little more frequently than a Sam-coached team was at the end of the year? Or both? History shows that good NBA players make big leaps between their 1st and 2nd and 2nd and 3rd years, and we have three important pieces at those levels. I'm assuming that our youngsters are going to continue the great improvement they showed toward the end of last year, and if Thibs is truly an upgrade over Sam, I think Wolves' fans should not be at all satisfied with a .500 record next year, unless we get hit bad with the injury stick again.

As for the Wolves not being included in many free agency rumors, I don't know that that means much. If we've learned anything about the new regime, it's that they are as closed-mouth and private as any group in the NBA. We may not hear anything real about any free agent moves until the deal is done.

The last 20 games are the worst time to evaluate teams. 1/4 teams are tanking, 1/4 are resting players regularly and limiting minutes. 1/4 are actually trying hard and are good and 1/4 are actually trying hard and aren't good enough for it to matter.

That can happen sometimes (#MadDog), but it's not what I saw with the Wolves in the last 20 games. First of all, the Wolves had the 5th worst record in the league...why weren't they tanking (dammit, Sam). I watched the big win in Oakland, and I didn't notice the Warriors resting their players. Durant played 38 minutes and Westbrook played 37 when we beat them in OkC...was that resting? Portland's starters all played 31 minutes or more when we beat them. Yes, we destroyed NO in the finale, but they were beaten up and I don't think anyone thought they were tanking...we were just a better team at the end of the year. I'll admit I missed a few games down the stretch, but I don't remember one win we got because the other team rested its stars, or one win where the other team was clearly tanking. I don't see the last 20 games as being outliers at all, except that we were playing much better than we were earlier in the year. But that's kind of the point, isn't it?

LST, I certainly think there are valid reasons for optimism and I will concede that your 56-win prediction assumed a significant FA acquisition - fair enough (still high in my opinion). Here is why ~ .500-ish seems more reasonable to me:

- I don't think we land the big-time free agent.

- Improvement isn't always linear and is never guaranteed with young guys. Some guys flat-line a bit then take a big leap in year 4 or 5. Others flat-line for good. Some might take a step back if trying to adjust to a new system or have some nagging injuries. While I'd love to believe it, I'm not sure ALL of our young guys take a big step forward next season.

- You mentioned injuries. It's unrealistic to expect so many of our key guys to stay as healthy as they did last year. Perhaps your prediction is a "best case" or "team ceiling" prediction. I tend to take a more Vegas-esque approach and predict wins based on "most likely outcome" versus "most desirable outcome".

- There is still the Rubio/Dunn wildcard out there. If Dunn is our starting PG, I think that acts as a drag on team performance....at least next season it will be.

- A .500 record is still a big, big improvement. 29 wins to 40 - 45 wins would be a significant step forward and already factors in improvement from the young guys and better coaching (and I think you would agree with me that Mitchell was not actually the worst coach of all time - he did some good things - so it's not like a Thibs-for-Rambis swap here....).

I'm used to Tim being the Board King of Optimism, but you might just be challenging him for the crown!

Thanks, Q!

And apparently KG and Thibs had their meeting. Word was "it was good". Of course, what does that mean?

I got the impression from the quote or statement from Thins or Layden or bother gay they were looking for something like "guys that were willing to be committed to winning" etc made me think there are certain guys they are going to go in on and they are not just going to pay up huge contracts to get guys. It's going to be more calculated FA somewhat similar to what the Vikings have done. I like that approach if that's what they are actually doing but I am reading in a decent amount I confess.

Edit: Volans in his Free Agent manifesto thread said a lot of what I think I was trying to say in this post but he did it better.

60WinTim wrote:Thanks, Q!

And apparently KG and Thibs had their meeting. Word was "it was good". Of course, what does that mean?

That Thibs is a talkative little devil, isn't he?

I see that the Wolves have an interest in Pau Gasol per ESPN. He's 35, so he's only a short term fix, so I'd rather spend our money elsewhere.

TeamRicky wrote:I see that the Wolves have an interest in Pau Gasol per ESPN. He's 35, so he's only a short term fix, so I'd rather spend our money elsewhere.

And I think just the opposite... we can't afford long term deals. Gasol may be too expensive for a couple of years, but we have the money now. Figure out what he's worth for 3 years and give him 80-90% of that for two years. We'd lose Bird rights, but so what. We just don't want a lot of money clogging the system when our young players come looking for their money. In the meantime, he gets a bigger chunk of money now and can sign one last deal in two years, hopefully with us.