Page 6 of 7
Re: GDT Bucks vs. Wolves
Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:49 pm
by Carlos Danger
Q12543 wrote:I guess the devil is in the details. quote]
I think you hit it on the head with that comment. I'm sure part of it is just tongue and cheek/fun. But part of it is serious too. Nobody wants guys jacking up threes if they can't demonstrate they are capable of a decent percentage. And I think Bennett was definitely one of the guys who Flip wants to prove he's qualified. I'm sure there are concerns about scoring with Love gone. Being patient and setting up higher percentage shots should be encouraged and rewarded! JJ as an example looked much better last night waiting/creating vs. chucking up a bunch of long range shots as he's been prone to do in the past.
Re: GDT Bucks vs. Wolves
Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:43 pm
by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
bleedspeed177 wrote:I think we are going to see lots of match up type rotations. Last night Flip started Shabazz at SG to match up with the freak. I think you will see a lot of fresh bodies this year. He might play only 10 guys a night, but one night that someone might play 20 minutes a game and the next night not play at all based mostly on matchups. I am not sure if that means the starters will get mixed up or just the reserves. I really think this team will go as far as Rubio and Pek take it. They really setup everything for everyone else. Pek is just so strong and Rubio knows how to set him up. They make a great combo on the floor.
Thanks for pointing out that Shabazz was matched up with Antetokounmpo for most of the night. The Freak gets a lot of love, and although I think he is hugely overrated on the offensive end, he can be an imposing defender with his freakish length and athleticism. But Shabazz schooled him on both sides of the court. We've already talked about Bazz's offensive production last night, but he also worked hard on defense and held the Freak to 1 point while forcing 8 turnovers. 1 game doesn't settle the discussion about whom Flip should have drafted at 13, but at least last night Shabazz was by far the superior player.
Re: GDT Bucks vs. Wolves
Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:53 pm
by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
Q12543 wrote:longstrangetrip wrote:60WinTim wrote:Carlos Danger wrote:Rubio 6 assists and JJ with 7. Five guys in double figures scoring. They really spread it around now without Love.
This. The reason I know we are going to be .500+ is because we have the talent to spread around Love's production. And while we may not totally replace his offensive efficiency, the defensive effort this squad is able to exert completely squashes that one negative.
Tim, is there any room on this .500+ bandwagon if I sit in the back? The last two nights have really made me look at this team in a new light, with two almost 20 point victories. Granted it's only pre-season and our opponents were not very good, but to me it seemed like our opponents were playing the game like a regular season game...playing their healthy players rather than selectively resting them like Flip. But no matter who Flip put out there was effective. I saw a Wolves team playing unselfishly on the offensive side, hitting the boards much better than I would have expected, and being totally disruptive on defense. It's fun to watch the joy on the bench as they watch their teammates. Thad Young has been a terrific acquisition to the roster as a teammate. He seems to keep things loose, and has even brought Pek out of his shell. It's fun to watch the normally quiet Pek yukking it up on the bench with Thad, Ronny, Corey and Mo. It's not that they are not interested in the game, because they are watching intently. They're just keeping everyone loose. It's a big difference from last year when the team generally played in a joyless and tight fashion. I think Flip, Thad and Mo have made a big impact on the personality of this team.
The West is still a brutally tough conference, and there will be a lot of losses as this team develops. I hope they don't lose the personality they are showing now when the inevitable losses come, but rather continue to play loose. They are going to be a lot of fun to watch, and should blow away that 26 1/2 wins over/under.
I think you and Tim are still too optimistic. It's still only preseason games.
The number 1 positive takeaway in preseason for me is that we have remained healthy. If we can come out of preseason without any major injuries or health setbacks, that is success in my book.
Oh, I'm sure you're right about us being overly opTIMistic...it's my nature with the home team. I would say that 90% of the time I look at the preseason posted win total for the Wolves/Twins/Vikings and think that it is too low. And it's generally pretty accurate. Still, it's difficult not to be excited after two blowout wins, even if they are in pre-season and against weak teams.
I agree that relatively good health defines success right now, but after watching this team the past two games, I have two other big takeaways. One, Flip has them playing consistently harder than last year's level, especially on defense. Even Kevin Martin was hustling on D Tuesday night, even though it was a meaningless preseason game. And two, this team has much better chemistry than last year. The addition of Young, Williams and Flip combined with the subtraction of Love and Adelman has the team playing with a lot more joy than we saw last year. Can they keep the good chemistry if they start the year 10-20? I don't know. But I like what I'm seeing on the court and bench right now.
Re: GDT Bucks vs. Wolves
Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:04 pm
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
Carlos Danger wrote:Q12543 wrote:I guess the devil is in the details. quote]
I think you hit it on the head with that comment. I'm sure part of it is just tongue and cheek/fun. But part of it is serious too. Nobody wants guys jacking up threes if they can't demonstrate they are capable of a decent percentage. And I think Bennett was definitely one of the guys who Flip wants to prove he's qualified. I'm sure there are concerns about scoring with Love gone. Being patient and setting up higher percentage shots should be encouraged and rewarded! JJ as an example looked much better last night waiting/creating vs. chucking up a bunch of long range shots as he's been prone to do in the past.
OK, but how do you define a decent percentage? 33% on open 3-point shots is the exact same value as 50% on 2-point shots. Do you really think Anthony Bennett (to use an example of someone not in the club) is going to hit 50% of his long 2's, because if he does, he would be one of the greatest shooters in the NBA. Now do you think he can hit 33% of his 3's? That's actually not an unreasonable estimate.
I definitely agree with the portion of Flip's philosophy of "taking open shots". But some open shots are a hell of a lot better than others. If Flip is saying AB is not good enough to take open 3-pointers, than he certainly shouldn't be encouraged to take open 2-point jump shots. He should be told to post up, drive and do everything possible to attack the basket and get dunks, layups, and fouls. But it's silly to say that it's OK to hit 35% of your 2 point jumpers, but it's totally unacceptable to take 3 point shots that require a 50% lower threshold of accuracy to achieve the same number of points!
Re: GDT Bucks vs. Wolves
Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:10 pm
by Monster
sjm34 wrote:monsterpile wrote:Did anyone else read the article via Startribune about Flip's 3 point club? It seems a little rigid but I really don't mind. Listening to what Flip was talking about getting good shots no matter where they are on the floor I now know for certain why George Karl didn't even get a phone call from Flip about the job.
Why? Last year Karl and Shaw argued last year about what was a good shot Shaw was saying get a good shot and that wildly jacking up 3's and driving to the rim wasn't good offense which is what Karl's basic premise was and then Karl got mad etc it went back and forth a bit. I thought Karl's offensive philosophy wasn't a fit with Flip but this absolutely confirms it. Personally I'm glad we didn't hire Karl despite his accomplishments. Notice nobody else hired him either despite A LOT of openings.
I'd be interested to know who so far is in Flip's 3 point club. Its probably no surprise who is and isn't in it. Its not set in stone so if there is someone not in it they can earn their way on. Sounds good to me.
I haven't read the article, but this is what worried me about Flip coming back. His system isn't built for the PO's. It is why the wolves struggled to get out of the first round for 7 years. Jump shooting teams only win when their shots are falling. Hopefully, we have enough athleticism to continue to draw fouls to offset the long 2's that Flip's system seems to embrace.
Karl doesn't believe in "wildly jacking up 3's", but he does realize that an open 3pt shot is a better shot than a long 2. He also realizes that driving to the hoop draws fouls, which accomplishes two things. Getting the other team into foul trouble, as well as getting to the line and scoring at a much more efficient rate.
Monster, I think Karl couldn't land a job due to his age and previous health issues, more than his offensive philosophy. It seems the league is embracing Karl's offense more each year.
SJM actually I agree with your take on Karl I guess I was being a little more negative about Karl's philosophy in compared to Flip's to make my point in their differences and actually more describing the spat between Karl and Shaw. My guess is Flip respects Karl a lot.
I spent some time talking in another thread about how Rubio may not have fit Adelman's system because he wasn't a scorer. Flip's PG's tended to be able to shoot and some were really good shooters. Rubio not so much although he can hit 3's. Its gonna be interesting to see how things work out. One issue with Wolves teams were how terrible they were at getting the ball into the post. Brandon was actually kind of bad at getting KG entry passes. KG would work so hard to get position and then the pass he would get would pull him out a few feet and give the defender better position. Rubio should be a lot better at setting up guys all over the floor so that's good.
Let's remind ourselves that Flip has mentioned some more advanced stats than at least I was expecting about players around the draft like Dieng's rim protection, Burke struggling against taller PGs LaVine's iso defense etc. Also remember his son who is a legit numbers guy is on his staff. I think Flip's whole point is getting guys to take good shots for the team and for themselves. If I was trying to teach guys the right way to play I would be absolutely looking at limiting 3 pointers if guys weren't that good at shooting them or taking good shots. Sure its worth more etc but some guys just fall in love with that idea and it keeps from finding good offense. Eventually you gotta be able to be a 3 point shooting team Flip knows that he said going into last year the Wolves needed more shooting and he kept Bud added Martin. Notice those guys are still here especially Martin. Flip does value the 3 ball.
Re: GDT Bucks vs. Wolves
Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:16 pm
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
longstrangetrip wrote:Q12543 wrote:longstrangetrip wrote:60WinTim wrote:Carlos Danger wrote:Rubio 6 assists and JJ with 7. Five guys in double figures scoring. They really spread it around now without Love.
This. The reason I know we are going to be .500+ is because we have the talent to spread around Love's production. And while we may not totally replace his offensive efficiency, the defensive effort this squad is able to exert completely squashes that one negative.
Tim, is there any room on this .500+ bandwagon if I sit in the back? The last two nights have really made me look at this team in a new light, with two almost 20 point victories. Granted it's only pre-season and our opponents were not very good, but to me it seemed like our opponents were playing the game like a regular season game...playing their healthy players rather than selectively resting them like Flip. But no matter who Flip put out there was effective. I saw a Wolves team playing unselfishly on the offensive side, hitting the boards much better than I would have expected, and being totally disruptive on defense. It's fun to watch the joy on the bench as they watch their teammates. Thad Young has been a terrific acquisition to the roster as a teammate. He seems to keep things loose, and has even brought Pek out of his shell. It's fun to watch the normally quiet Pek yukking it up on the bench with Thad, Ronny, Corey and Mo. It's not that they are not interested in the game, because they are watching intently. They're just keeping everyone loose. It's a big difference from last year when the team generally played in a joyless and tight fashion. I think Flip, Thad and Mo have made a big impact on the personality of this team.
The West is still a brutally tough conference, and there will be a lot of losses as this team develops. I hope they don't lose the personality they are showing now when the inevitable losses come, but rather continue to play loose. They are going to be a lot of fun to watch, and should blow away that 26 1/2 wins over/under.
I think you and Tim are still too optimistic. It's still only preseason games.
The number 1 positive takeaway in preseason for me is that we have remained healthy. If we can come out of preseason without any major injuries or health setbacks, that is success in my book.
Oh, I'm sure you're right about us being overly opTIMistic...it's my nature with the home team. I would say that 90% of the time I look at the preseason posted win total for the Wolves/Twins/Vikings and think that it is too low. And it's generally pretty accurate. Still, it's difficult not to be excited after two blowout wins, even if they are in pre-season and against weak teams.
I agree that relatively good health defines success right now, but after watching this team the past two games, I have two other big takeaways. One, Flip has them playing consistently harder than last year's level, especially on defense. Even Kevin Martin was hustling on D Tuesday night, even though it was a meaningless preseason game. And two, this team has much better chemistry than last year. The addition of Young, Williams and Flip combined with the subtraction of Love and Adelman has the team playing with a lot more joy than we saw last year. Can they keep the good chemistry if they start the year 10-20? I don't know. But I like what I'm seeing on the court and bench right now.
This is a classic homer take, which I suppose you would admit. I think you are seeing things that you want to see. Going into last year's pre-season and through at least the first third of the regular season, I saw no indication of a down and out team, poor chemistry, grumbling, etc. In fact, go back and look at some of the posts on this very board. Many of us - perhaps even you - were talking about Love's "arrival" as a true team leader.
Perhaps I'm jaded, but I've been through way, way too many "things are looking up!" pre-seasons over the past decade with this team to do anything but take a wait and see approach.
I'm glad your optimistic and that's part of being a home team fan. But I ain't buyin' the team chemistry/they are trying harder bit. Let's see how things go once we go on an 8-game losing streak or lose a couple of key guys due to injury.
Re: GDT Bucks vs. Wolves
Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:19 pm
by Monster
bleedspeed177 wrote:I think we are going to see lots of match up type rotations. Last night Flip started Shabazz at SG to match up with the freak. I think you will see a lot of fresh bodies this year. He might play only 10 guys a night, but one night that someone might play 20 minutes a game and the next night not play at all based mostly on matchups. I am not sure if that means the starters will get mixed up or just the reserves. I really think this team will go as far as Rubio and Pek take it. They really setup everything for everyone else. Pek is just so strong and Rubio knows how to set him up. They make a great combo on the floor.
I agree with your take about different matchups and Bazz is one guy that's made me think this is what Flip will be doing matching up guys at time once he took over as coach. Hummel, JJ and. Even Lavine could all be other guys that get chunks of minutes some games depending on matchups. I know it sounds like a stretch for Lavine based on his preseason play but he is a wildcard guy with athletism to spare and nice length. You can maybe play him at 3 different spots depending on you you are matching up with. He is kinda like Shved in that way but a very different player overall based on what I've seen.
Re: GDT Bucks vs. Wolves
Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 6:04 pm
by Carlos Danger
Q12543 wrote:OK, but how do you define a decent percentage? 33% on open 3-point shots is the exact same value as 50% on 2-point shots. Do you really think Anthony Bennett (to use an example of someone not in the club) is going to hit 50% of his long 2's, because if he does, he would be one of the greatest shooters in the NBA. Now do you think he can hit 33% of his 3's? That's actually not an unreasonable estimate.
I definitely agree with the portion of Flip's philosophy of "taking open shots". But some open shots are a hell of a lot better than others. If Flip is saying AB is not good enough to take open 3-pointers, than he certainly shouldn't be encouraged to take open 2-point jump shots. He should be told to post up, drive and do everything possible to attack the basket and get dunks, layups, and fouls. But it's silly to say that it's OK to hit 35% of your 2 point jumpers, but it's totally unacceptable to take 3 point shots that require a 50% lower threshold of accuracy to achieve the same number of points!
Q - I think it's more complex than just doing that simple math. Wouldn't we have to look at things like:
1.) Offensive rebound % for 3 pointers vs. 2 pointers. Do 3 pt misses lead to higher rates of loss of possession?
2.) Foul %. Do players draw fouls at the same rate from 3 pt range as they would getting closer to the basket? Obviously free throws add up quick and are high percentage shots.
I'm still a novice basketball guy. If someone has a site they recommend for info like that, I would be interested to learn. There has to be a reason why every team doesn't just take nothing but 3 point shots. As a novice, I think 3 pt shots are great....when they go in! When they don't, it seems like a long rebound and quick transition points going the other way. But I admittedly do not have stats I can point to that back that up - so it's just opinion.
Re: GDT Bucks vs. Wolves
Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:32 pm
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
Good questions Carlos. On #1, go here:http://courtvisionanalytics.com/where-do-rebounds-go/
The answer is the opposite of what you posit. Missed 3-pointers have a better chance of extending possessions compared to missed 2-point jump shots.
As for #2, yes, someone who puts the ball on the deck and is on the move toward the basket has a better chance of being fouled. But the debate here is open long 2's versus open 3's, neither of which will lead to getting fouled very often unless someone comes on a very late challenge and runs into the shooter. And when does that happen? Mostly on 3-point shots, because they are so much more valuable. Again, most NBA defenses encourage long 2-point shots.
The most efficient shots in basketball are dunks, layups, free throws, and 3-pointers. In other words, NBA offenses should try to generate as many shots as possible at the rim or beyond the 3-point line. Houston is a team that has embraced this philosophy. They shot by far the lowest percentage of "long 2's" compared to any other team in the NBA.
But back to the main point. I don't disagree with an overarching philosophy by Flip to take open shots first and foremost. Every NBA offensive system is looking to somehow generate a good, open shot. Where I have a problem is that somehow the 3-point shot is discouraged for certain players, yet the 20 foot jumper is not. If someone can't hit 3-pointers at an acceptable clip, than they certainly shouldn't be allowed to take long 2 pointers either.
Re: GDT Bucks vs. Wolves
Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:15 pm
by Carlos Danger
Q - thanks for the link. It's a good read and a lot of info that I will need to go back and read again to completely digest. Since I didn't bring anything to table to back my opinion - I'll defer to you on the offensive rebound % of 3 pointers (even though it goes against my gut! - HA!). I'll have to do some more reading on that - but for now, I'll concede.
Also, there's no disagreement with you regarding a long 2 pt shots vs. 3 point shots. My take on Flips comments was more along the lines that he's wanting guys to create better shots through all the normal ways i.e. moving the ball to the open guy, spacing, moving without the ball etc. Generally speaking, the closer to the basket you get, the higher the percentage the shot and the better the chance of drawing contact/free throws. I look at a guy like Rubio in the preseason and he's getting the bulk of his points at the line (which is great because he's not a good shooter!).