SL Game 3 Wolves vs. Sixers

[rapsuperstar31]

I think a few of Rob's turnovers were silly mental errors that he can fix. Two of them were him standing in the corner wide open and someone passes him the ball for an open 3 but his right foot is out of bounds. I could be wrong but I believe there is less space in the NBA corner than there is in the NCAA with the three point line being further out. That is a mental mistake and being unfamiliar with the dimensions on the court that if he keeps his foot inbounds and hits one of the two open 3's his stat line looks a lot better. The offensive foul turnover at the end of the game was a terrible call as he was fouled on that play and it should have been overturned. There was another play where he passes it to Miller right on the money as Miller rolled to the basket but Miller just missed the ball and it went out of bounds.

[Q-is-here]

Lots of players have looked great in summer league and fizzled out, lots of players have looked terrible and have been stars in the league. They practice for a week or so together after having 4 months off since March madness. Trae Young in his first 4 summer league games was 16/66 from the field and 6/34 from 3. Curry shot 32.5% in five games, Demarcus Cousins 33.5% in 6 games, Paul George 33% in five games, Lavine, Middleton, Paul, Kemba Walker, Wall all shot in the 30s% in summer league, KAT averaged 12pts on 39% shooting in summer league. By the end of the summer league Trae Young was declared a bust, and Johnny Flynn thoroughly outplayed Curry and declared the correct pick.

Cypress, you mention Trae Young, and I think we're not mentioning him as a Rob comp enough. Both quite small defensively-challenged explosive scorers. I think Q mentioned that in his sample of freshman blue chippers, only Young averaged more points per minute than Rob, and Rob's TS% was better than Young's. Young seems to be an excellent comp for Rob...I don't know if he will be his equal on offense (although he could be), but I have some hope that he can be better on defense.

But Young is another example of why my hopes for Rob this season are low. Young had a negative 10 net rating at age 20 his initial season (compared to a negative 3 for his career), and a 53.9% TS% compared to 58.1 for his career. We may not love Rob's game this year, but I think his postive trajectory will be similar to many other undersized young PGs.

One thing to look at with some of these past rookie "benchmarks" for RD is to analyze their pre-all star and post-all star splits as rookies.

Trae Young for example had a 52 TS% on 17 PPG pre-all star break with a +/- of -9.2. Post all-star break he shot 58 TS% on 25 PPG with a +.5. That's quite a big difference! Anthony Edwards, while obviously a different physical and positional profile, had a very similar transformation. He started out as an inefficient chucker off the bench and ended his rookie year as a regular starter and one of our best players.

So even if the entire season looks pretty mediocre on paper, what matters most (especially to us) is how RD is performing in March and beyond.

[Lipoli390]

I don't want to like Leonard Miller and generally share the take here that he will not be an NBA player. His shooting form (and frankly his 3-point results last night) is terrible. And his defense is spotty at best. But then I remember that he is still only 20 and I look at his production...22 points and 13 rebounds in 30 minutes last night. And I'm reminded of what Buddy Ryan said right after he cut Cris Carter: "All he does is catch touchdowns." I'm starting to wonder if our attitude about Miller should be "all he does is make baskets and get rebounds" ?

He filled up the box score in the G-League too - this is nothing new. I'd say he's closest to Naz Reid right now in terms of archetype. He seems to have the mobility and foot speed to guard a bit on the perimeter, but he gets absolutely destroyed when asked to play Center - guys rebounding over him, always out of position and fouling, doesn't always give a second effort, etc. You can hide Miller a bit more defensively if he plays PF and just let him be a "do shit" kind of player.

Somehow I thought of Naz also when I posted...maybe he will be a Naz replacement if we need to clear some salary. Two major differences though...he'll never shoot the 3-ball like Naz, and he's a far better rebounder.

The Naz comp for Miller is maybe marginally applicable on a really superficial level. But the two don’t resemble one another in any way. Naz is highly coordinated, quick, nimble and skilled. Miller is slow, awkward and marginally skilled. What Miller has going for him is length and a knack for rebounding that Naz doesn’t have. When my wife and I saw Naz in his first summer league we couldn’t stop saying positive things about him based on the way he played. It was a totally different vibe watching Naz compared to Miller. I’m not giving up on Miller at age 20. But unlike Naz, Miller looks like a guy who’s just learning the game of basketball. He just doesn’t look like the game comes naturally to him. It’s quite the opposite with Naz.

[Lipoli390]

My comps for Dillingham are Rod Strickland and Kenny Anderson. Neither of those guys got appreciably bigger after entering the league, so I don't see Dilly packing on a lot of weight either. What he needs to do is be able to finish at the rim like these two guys could. Definitely something to work on.

Kenny Anderson is a near perfect comp for Rob. Well done, Cool! I’ve been racking my brain to come up with a good comp and I’ve been coming up short. You nailed it. The Rod Strickland comp is a good one too, but the Kenny Anderson comparison resonates more with me.

[KG4Ever]

He filled up the box score in the G-League too - this is nothing new. I'd say he's closest to Naz Reid right now in terms of archetype. He seems to have the mobility and foot speed to guard a bit on the perimeter, but he gets absolutely destroyed when asked to play Center - guys rebounding over him, always out of position and fouling, doesn't always give a second effort, etc. You can hide Miller a bit more defensively if he plays PF and just let him be a "do shit" kind of player.

Somehow I thought of Naz also when I posted...maybe he will be a Naz replacement if we need to clear some salary. Two major differences though...he'll never shoot the 3-ball like Naz, and he's a far better rebounder.

The Naz comp for Miller is maybe marginally applicable on a really superficial level. But the two don’t resemble one another in any way. Naz is highly coordinated, quick, nimble and skilled. Miller is slow, awkward and marginally skilled. What Miller has going for him is length and a knack for rebounding that Naz doesn’t have. When my wife and I saw Naz in his first summer league we couldn’t stop saying positive things about him based on the way he played. It was a totally different vibe watching Naz compared to Miller. I’m not giving up on Miller at age 20. But unlike Naz, Miller looks like a guy who’s just learning the game of basketball. He just doesn’t look like the game comes naturally to him. It’s quite the opposite with Naz.

But Lenny is not a center, but he is very promising as a power forward, so I'm not all that worried if he's not a great rim protector now. Naz isn't a center either. Miller looked great last night and I think he's the least worrisome summer league guy. If Dilly can't get his shot going, he shouldn't be in the rotation. He'll get eaten alive by real NBA players. I'm a bit worried about TSJ as his handles are bad and he could be a turnover machine. Not sure his shot will translate as well against real NBA guys and we got a lot of guys already that clog the lane. Haven't really seen the great defense that he's been hyped for. I hope TSJ can help, but preseason games will be more telling. Nix looks good in the do shit category, but I'm not sure if he's good enough to be the main backup, but he might be effective in the JMAC, third string point role. Not sure why we wasted a spot on Dozier when point guard is the biggest need and RD just doesn't look ready to contribute this year in an overall positive way. I don't see an NBA player in Edwards and Clark is so one dimensional and he has no offense, but at least they aren't burning roster spots. I don't see Frenchy cracking the roster as he is small, but probably has played well enough to get a G League gig. I want to like Josh, but he is struggling with his shot and its year three for him. TSJ, Nix and Lenny have been the top three guys and I'm looking forward to seeing them against real NBA competition. I have mixed feelings on RD. He's really struggling with his shot, and last night turned the ball over like 7 times, but he's been a pretty good passer and rebounder. He's only 19, so he's got time, but if he can't get his shot going in summer league, I'm not sure he'll be able to get it going when it counts during the regular season and especially the playoffs. I'm a hopeful but worried Wolves fan.

[KG4Ever]

Somehow I thought of Naz also when I posted...maybe he will be a Naz replacement if we need to clear some salary. Two major differences though...he'll never shoot the 3-ball like Naz, and he's a far better rebounder.

The Naz comp for Miller is maybe marginally applicable on a really superficial level. But the two don’t resemble one another in any way. Naz is highly coordinated, quick, nimble and skilled. Miller is slow, awkward and marginally skilled. What Miller has going for him is length and a knack for rebounding that Naz doesn’t have. When my wife and I saw Naz in his first summer league we couldn’t stop saying positive things about him based on the way he played. It was a totally different vibe watching Naz compared to Miller. I’m not giving up on Miller at age 20. But unlike Naz, Miller looks like a guy who’s just learning the game of basketball. He just doesn’t look like the game comes naturally to him. It’s quite the opposite with Naz.

But Lenny is not a center, but he is very promising as a power forward, so I'm not all that worried if he's not a great rim protector now. Naz isn't a center either. Miller looked great last night and I think he's the least worrisome summer league guy. If Dilly can't get his shot going, he shouldn't be in the rotation. He'll get eaten alive by real NBA players. I'm a bit worried about TSJ as his handles are bad and he could be a turnover machine. Not sure his shot will translate as well against real NBA guys and we got a lot of guys already that clog the lane. Haven't really seen the great defense that he's been hyped for. I hope TSJ can help, but preseason games will be more telling. Nix looks good in the do shit category, but I'm not sure if he's good enough to be the main backup, but he might be effective in the JMAC, third string point role. Not sure why we wasted a spot on Dozier when point guard is the biggest need and RD just doesn't look ready to contribute this year in an overall positive way. I don't see an NBA player in Edwards and Clark is so one dimensional and he has no offense, but at least they aren't burning roster spots. I don't see Frenchy cracking the roster as he is small, but probably has played well enough to get a G League gig. I want to like Josh, but he is struggling with his shot and its year three for him. TSJ, Nix and Lenny have been the top three guys and I'm looking forward to seeing them against real NBA competition. I have mixed feelings on RD. He's really struggling with his shot, and last night turned the ball over like 7 times, but he's been a pretty good passer and rebounder. He's only 19, so he's got time, but if he can't get his shot going in summer league, I'm not sure he'll be able to get it going when it counts during the regular season and especially the playoffs this year. I'm a hopeful but worried Wolves fan.

[Carlos Danger]

He filled up the box score in the G-League too - this is nothing new. I'd say he's closest to Naz Reid right now in terms of archetype. He seems to have the mobility and foot speed to guard a bit on the perimeter, but he gets absolutely destroyed when asked to play Center - guys rebounding over him, always out of position and fouling, doesn't always give a second effort, etc. You can hide Miller a bit more defensively if he plays PF and just let him be a "do shit" kind of player.

Somehow I thought of Naz also when I posted...maybe he will be a Naz replacement if we need to clear some salary. Two major differences though...he'll never shoot the 3-ball like Naz, and he's a far better rebounder.

The Naz comp for Miller is maybe marginally applicable on a really superficial level. But the two don’t resemble one another in any way. Naz is highly coordinated, quick, nimble and skilled. Miller is slow, awkward and marginally skilled. What Miller has going for him is length and a knack for rebounding that Naz doesn’t have. When my wife and I saw Naz in his first summer league we couldn’t stop saying positive things about him based on the way he played. It was a totally different vibe watching Naz compared to Miller. I’m not giving up on Miller at age 20. But unlike Naz, Miller looks like a guy who’s just learning the game of basketball. He just doesn’t look like the game comes naturally to him. It’s quite the opposite with Naz.

I understand the impatience with posters/fans on Miller. We want to see something and we want it now. But everything I've read on Miller is that he's a late bloomer. Here is a good read from earlier this year:

https://zonecoverage.com/2024/timberwol ... -g-league/

My take is this...he's young, cheap and looks like he has some tools. Finchy is most likely going to play 8 or 9 guys again, so carrying Miller on the roster is just an easy, low risk/high reward thing to do. Eventually, he's either going to have to show something or get bumped off roster by a better (or younger) guy. But until then - I'm fine giving him some rope in case he starts to show something. The Wolves need to hit on some of these draft picks to keep their checkbook balanced.

[FNG]

Thanks for the article, Anthony...nice to see the 3-point improvement (although his form forces me to shield my eyes when he shoots). Lip is correct that he and Naz are totally different players, but I lump them together because:

1) They are both center-sized players who can't play center

2) They both are capable of putting up gaudy stats, but

3) Certain flaws in their respective games lead me to believe the Wolves will usually be outscored when they are on the floor.

That said, I continue to believe the Wolves may be looking at him as a 2025-6 cheaper backup PF as they move away from Naz's bigger contract. I think he will be auditioning for that role this season, but mostly in a mop up role.

[Lipoli390]

Thanks for the article, Anthony...nice to see the 3-point improvement (although his form forces me to shield my eyes when he shoots). Lip is correct that he and Naz are totally different players, but I lump them together because:

1) They are both center-sized players who can't play center

2) They both are capable of putting up gaudy stats, but

3) Certain flaws in their respective games lead me to believe the Wolves will usually be outscored when they are on the floor.

That said, I continue to believe the Wolves may be looking at him as a 2025-6 cheaper backup PF as they move away from Naz's bigger contract. I think he will be auditioning for that role this season, but mostly in a mop up role.

I don’t think they have Miller in mind as Naz Reid’s successor. TC drafted Minott and Miller based on what he saw as their upside talent relative to what he could otherwise get in the second round. He took Clark in the second round in spite of his Achilles tear because he was a developed 1st round talent. It’s clear that TC’s draft decisions are all about upside talent, except of course for Wendell Moore. TC also understands that trading the bevy of first round picks he gave up for Rudy required him to find other ways to fill the coffers with young talent for the future. I doubt he had or has Miller or Minott in mind to replace Naz. If anything, he has both guys in mind as potential successors to Rudy or KAT when the Wolves move to version 2.0.

TC is going to re-sign unless his development completely stalls next season. TC won’t be able to trade Naz after the February trade deadline because the 2nd apron will prevent him from doing a sign-and-trade next summer. So TC will either have to match other offers or let Naz walk next summer and he’s not going to do that. There’s no getting around the high likelihood that the Wolves will eventually trade KAT or Rudy in the next year or two. And they’ll either trade Naz by next February’s trade deadline or re-sign him next summer. Meanwhile, I have a hard time seeing any future role for Miller with the Wolves. IN contrast, I can a potential future role for Minott as an energy-guy/effort/defender off the bench. I can see a role for Clark as a disruptive defender or better yet a 3 and D guy off the bench.

[Monster]

Some thought based on this ugly game.

Dillingham as the game went on was really getting up on guys and made some plays defensively. Was he awesome on that end? Maybe not but the dude was really getting into it and being kinda physical and was not backing down. He had 7 turnovers but again showed some real signs of being a playmaking guard.

Coach Hines said the goal for Minott was to be able to guard on the ball. So far through 3 games mission accomplished for Minott. Can he guard at the NBA level? Idk and I've been skeptical of his ability to be a wing defender but 2023 summer league I thought he looked better and this year the guy looks pretty legit out there. He picked McCain at one point in this game and was pretty good at hounding guys. He was out here doing shit again and also seemed to back off trying to do things with the ball. Does his 3 pointer look good? Absolutely not however it toe looks more like he gets it off more quickly and it looks more like a shot that's more of a shooter with a less compact release. I'm not really expecting the guy to every be an average 3 point shooter but if he can guard 2-4 with hat length he could be useful. He is still only 21 so you never know if in 2-4 years of he could develope his shooting over that time. This isn't a high bar but he has done enough in these SL games to make me say yeah he might be able to help enough to make it worth keeping him around this year.

Leonard Miller is a wonky guy but games like this shows why there is still possibly something there. He was in there battling for rebounds and doing some other good things. Yes his shot looks wonky and he is a weird player in general. I still say he is something between Vanderbilt and Naz Reid. He still looks like a guy that hasn't really figured out how to play or what he is. To be fair he is a bit of a unique guy. I agree with the idea at this point he is more of a PF than a C.

Nix leaned into what type of game it was. This was the type of game his skill set is good for. To me he was a mixed bag.

Edwards does some good things out there but he had 7 fouls in this game and he doesn't wall up all the time he brings his hands down and fouls too. I don't think he sucks I just think there are probably better players out there for that 2-way spot. Meanwhile Tony Bradley is out there in SL fighting for his career.

Again it's really interesting that the Wolves played a 3rd game with basically nobody cracking the rotation. It's unusual.