Wolves offseason outlook.

[AussieWolf3]

"this is the worst offensive ecosystem a star player [Ant] could be cursed with"

- Jake Paynting

I completely agree

This is a little “sky is falling” immediate post mortum panic induced for me. Wolves ranked 13th or so offensively for the season. The problem seems to be that there is a severe disconnect between what offense the coaches want to play vs what translates consistently to the game. The fact that this is obvious to the eye but we can still be top 1/3rd offensively seems to speak to there being something worth salvage here. Take the disconnect and remove it, try again next year with some new parts and reassess. Every team has to go through this process except the two or three legit contenders.

We have overachieved for the last three years. Coasting by on youthful ignorance and all world talent. It led to an air of too cool for school. They just found out. A second time in as many year that they are in fact not too cool.

Julius/Ant\Rudy doesn’t work no matter what you put around it. That much seems to be proven beyond a reasonable doubt. Anything beyond that as far as roster construction is unknowns. It would probably be better to have a Center that knows where the hoop is and has two hands, it would probably be better to have other players capable of running an offense to get Ant 100% off ball as much as we can, it would probably be good to get Jaden off primary ball defender, it would make sense to send people cutting to the fucking hoop when someone gets doubled….jesus im starting to get depressed….


Main point….Julius or Rudy or both have to go and see what the offense looks like then.

Paynting has been pretty consistent about this, so it's not an immediate over reaction.

I definitely agree with your overall point

[AussieWolf3]

Chet or Jaylen. It’s also the fact that their 4th 5th and 6th guys are also probably better than ours.

Chet has indisputably been their 2nd best this year. Obviously a healthy JDub complicates that certainly.

I wouldn't say he has a great handle or passing

Yeah they got 3 max players, where we got one. Rudy used to be a max level player but not anymore. We used to have a max level player in Kat but traded him. Jaden is clearly worth more than we pay him, but not max level. Sadly in a year or two AJ Mitchell just might be a 4th max level player for OKC. They are going to have to make some roster decisions soon.

Hot take, if you switched Jaden for Chet on the Thunder there would be any meaningful difference in outcomes

[Q-is-here]

"this is the worst offensive ecosystem a star player [Ant] could be cursed with"

- Jake Paynting

I completely agree

Part of it is Ant's own fault though. He never developed the passing skill and touch to get the ball to Rudy on the roll, which really limited their pick and roll potential. In Utah Rudy was a real threat rolling to the hoop because he had guys like Conley and Ingles that could get him the ball in places where he could catch it and finish.

Alas, it's a bridge too far at this point to expect Ant to become a pick and roll maestro that can thread perfect passes to a thumbless target.

As for Randle, he's always been a consistent 3-point shot away from working on our roster. Early in the season he was on a 3rd team All-NBA pace because he was knocking down nearly 40% of his 3's. But he ultimately regressed to his usual unreliable self and that just makes the Randle/Rudy pairing untenable against elite defenses.

I always go back to the Celtics 5-out offense with Tatum and Brown as the best system for Ant. We have a PF on the roster right now that can fit like a glove in that system, but he's not good enough defensively to slide down to the 5, so the real dilemma is how to replace Rudy given how much we'd lose defensively.

[KiwiMatt]

What cost us against the Spurs was a lack of spacing. The DDV injury was huge in terms of his ability to shoot the ball from deep and his off ball movement around the perimeter pulling opposition players off double teaming Ant.

The other big problem that compounded things is Julius and Jaden's best spots are in the mid range to low post, so they get in each other way. Add Rudy who is incapable of scoring anywhere outside of 2 feet, and Ant who needs space in the middle of the floor to utilise his driving game, and you have MASSIVE spacing issue. We got away with it against Jokic but with a generational 7' 6" defensive freak roaming the paint it makes for a terrible match up.

We need better spacing against the Spurs and OKCs of this world, if we are to compete with them. Julius has to go. You only want Rudy there if he is surrounded by floor spacers. Ant needs another player to take the load off his playmaking / shotmaking reliance that isn't a shooting guard or 38 years old.

Swapping Julius for a PG makes the most sense. Dejonte Murray, Kyrie Iriving, Jalen Suggs etc.

[AussieWolf3]

"this is the worst offensive ecosystem a star player [Ant] could be cursed with"

- Jake Paynting

I completely agree

Part of it is Ant's own fault though. He never developed the passing skill and touch to get the ball to Rudy on the roll, which really limited their pick and roll potential. In Utah Rudy was a real threat rolling to the hoop because he had guys like Conley and Ingles that could get him the ball in places where he could catch it and finish.

Alas, it's a bridge too far at this point to expect Ant to become a pick and roll maestro that can thread perfect passes to a thumbless target.

As for Randle, he's always been a consistent 3-point shot away from working on our roster. Early in the season he was on a 3rd team All-NBA pace because he was knocking down nearly 40% of his 3's. But he ultimately regressed to his usual unreliable self and that just makes the Randle/Rudy pairing untenable against elite defenses.

I always go back to the Celtics 5-out offense with Tatum and Brown as the best system for Ant. We have a PF on the roster right now that can fit like a glove in that system, but he's not good enough defensively to slide down to the 5, so the real dilemma is how to replace Rudy given how much we'd lose defensively.

I don't disagree with anything you've said here. Ant carries plenty of blame and Jake said as much preceeding this above statement

It's still true tho that there is almost nothing going on for the wolves that's actually helpful for Ant on offense, including the system. He also makes things a lot harder on himself most of the time.

I kinda hope you're wrong about a Celtics style 5 out, iso heavy being the right direction to go. I'm still partial to a defensive 4 or 5 who functions as an offensive hub being a really good fit in lui of a traditional PG.

Of course this was the idea with Randle and it kind of works with Rudy but it really doesn't because Randle is a terrible defender.

Maybe I do want Giannis

[Q-is-here]

"this is the worst offensive ecosystem a star player [Ant] could be cursed with"

- Jake Paynting

I completely agree

Part of it is Ant's own fault though. He never developed the passing skill and touch to get the ball to Rudy on the roll, which really limited their pick and roll potential. In Utah Rudy was a real threat rolling to the hoop because he had guys like Conley and Ingles that could get him the ball in places where he could catch it and finish.

Alas, it's a bridge too far at this point to expect Ant to become a pick and roll maestro that can thread perfect passes to a thumbless target.

As for Randle, he's always been a consistent 3-point shot away from working on our roster. Early in the season he was on a 3rd team All-NBA pace because he was knocking down nearly 40% of his 3's. But he ultimately regressed to his usual unreliable self and that just makes the Randle/Rudy pairing untenable against elite defenses.

I always go back to the Celtics 5-out offense with Tatum and Brown as the best system for Ant. We have a PF on the roster right now that can fit like a glove in that system, but he's not good enough defensively to slide down to the 5, so the real dilemma is how to replace Rudy given how much we'd lose defensively.

I don't disagree with anything you've said here. Ant carries plenty of blame and Jake said as much preceeding this above statement

It's still true tho that there is almost nothing going on for the wolves that's actually helpful for Ant on offense, including the system. He also makes things a lot harder on himself most of the time.

I kinda hope you're wrong about a Celtics style 5 out, iso heavy being the right direction to go. I'm still partial to a defensive 4 or 5 who functions as an offensive hub being a really good fit in lui of a traditional PG.

Of course this was the idea with Randle and it kind of works with Rudy but it really doesn't because Randle is a terrible defender.

Maybe I do want Giannis

Aesthetically it's much more pleasing to have a guy like Draymond or Jokic dealing dimes from the high post with a bunch of cutters, but the reason they run that style of offense is because those teams didn't/don't have elite isolation players (except for the time Durant was in Golden State). Curry, Thompson, Murray, Porter Jr., Cam, etc. are all guys that are better off in movement offenses with lots of cutting and off ball screening since they aren't elite in creating their own shot without some help.

But having an elite isolation player in the NBA is a HUGE advantage and often can lead to a more efficient offense than a movement offense that can often lead to a bunch of turnovers. It's just not as pretty to watch.

I don't think we need a traditional PG in the purest sense, but I do agree Ant needs to be off ball more. It could be Ayo or Shannon or Kyrie or someone else we haven't thought of, but to me it's less about it being a pure PG and more about someone that can responsibily be on ball, get others involved, but also be a threat to score more than a Conley or Tyus Jones type. I've seen Suggs' name mentioned but I thought he ended up being a big offensive liability for Orlando in the playoffs.

[AussieWolf3]

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I don't think we need a traditional PG in the purest sense, but I do agree Ant needs to be off ball more. It could be Ayo or Shannon or Kyrie or someone else we haven't thought of, but to me it's less about it being a pure PG and more about someone that can responsibily be on ball, get others involved, but also be a threat to score more than a Conley or Tyus Jones type. I've seen Suggs' name mentioned but I thought he ended up being a big offensive liability for Orlando in the playoffs.

100% agree! They need someone who actually understands how to manage an offense.

I'm not sure Suggs is the right fit either, I do like that he'd be a huge plus defensively

[Crazysauce]

Randle the only rotation player that didn't participate in an exit interview today. Get rid of this cancer quickly.

[rapsuperstar31]

Anyone now much about Tyler Herro? I've seen a few articles suggest Randle for Herro straight up including Miami specific articles that are throwing out a few different trades. They make basically the same salary next year, Herro has one more year on his deal. Sounds like Miami has been shopping Herro for awhile, not wanting to pay his next salary increase. He's 26 so the same age as Ayo and Naz. Looks like he has had a few injury shortened seasons. Looks like a decent shooter, don't know much about him regarding his playmaking and defense.

[Q-is-here]

Anyone now much about Tyler Herro? I've seen a few articles suggest Randle for Herro straight up including Miami specific articles that are throwing out a few different trades. They make basically the same salary next year, Herro has one more year on his deal. Sounds like Miami has been shopping Herro for awhile, not wanting to pay his next salary increase. He's 26 so the same age as Ayo and Naz. Looks like he has had a few injury shortened seasons. Looks like a decent shooter, don't know much about him regarding his playmaking and defense.

He's a classic scoring guard with some halfway decent play making chops....like a less potent version of Ant and even more of a defensive liability that can get targeted. His best role on a contending team would be off the bench as a 6th or 7th man gunslinger. That's the role he played for Miami in his earlier years, but has since been a regular starter when healthy.