Simmons Prediction Thread

[Leado01]

Does anyone else think that ANT might end up being a bigger headcase than KAT and that throwing Ben Simmons into the mix could be fully combustible?

DLO isn't perfect (the sloppy passes and unwillingness to take a charge can be maddening) BUT he's consistent, he's not a head case, and he appears to be the on court leader on O and D.

Would I move players for Simmons? Of course. But I don't see Ben Simmons as a guy that can lead the oversized egos on this team and would likely exacerbate the issues we are beginning to see with KAT and ANT.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Furthermore, let's illustrate the type of shooter D'Angelo Russell is and has been off the catch. Russell's been one of the better shooters in the entire league in this regard over the last handful of years.

2015: 36.3% (2.8 attempts)
2016: 36.7% (3.1 attempts)
2017: 36.4% (3.1 attempts)
2018: 39.4% (3.4 attempts)
2019: 39.1% (3.8 attempts)
2020: 39.1% (3.6 attempts)

Defenses will not willingly leave him alone outside the three-point line because of the above. He's proven that he'll make them and make them in bunches. That in itself has value.

I have to admit that on face value I was impressed by DLo's numbers on catch and shoot threes...39.1% seems pretty good to me. But then I took a closer look, and the "one of the better shooters in the league" conclusion is far from reality. It turns out that catch and shoot threes are made throughout the association at a very high rate. In fact, DLo ranked 164th last season in catch and shoot 3-point percentage, and 71st in percentage for those taking more than 3 catch and shoot 3-pointers a game. If those shooters were spread evenly throughout the 30 teams, there would be more than 5 shooters on every team with a better catch and shoot percentage, and over 2 high-volume shooters (3 or more catch and shoot threes) on each team with a higher percentage. And if we make it Wolves-specific (not considered a very good 3-point shooting team by any standard), there are 4 current Wolves who had a higher catch and shoot percentage than DLo last year, and 3 of those 4 had 3 or more attempts per game. I don't think anyone would conclude that those rankings make DLo one of the best shooters in the league...far from it.

A couple other guys here have made the same point to me over and over again...that his shooting percentage is not as important as the perceived threat of DLo making a three. But that just doesn't make sense to me in light of the fact that 70 other high-volume guys had a better catch and shoot percentage than DLo last year (and I think we all know Russell would rank much lower in this current year). Let's try one specific example to see if the logic holds up. Davis Bertans had a better catch and shoot 3-point percentage than DLo last season, on almost twice as many attempts. Is he then also one of the better shooters in the league and a valuable offensive player?

Why does the fact 70 other NBA players had better catch shoot percentage mean that opposing teams won't guard him on the perimeter? He may not be among the elite shooters in the league, but he's good enough that defenders don't sag off him or double off of him, as a 39% catch and shoot percentage is still super efficient. No team wants to give that up regardless if there are 70 or 700 other players better at it. This means he helps create space whether he takes a 3 or not. Combine that with his playmaking ability and you have a dangerous offensive player. Why is this so hard for you to grasp?

DLO can be criticized for his lackadaisical defensive play (although not as much this year), his poor shot selection, or his slow first step. His outside shot is the one thing teams want to take away from him.

There are two different conversations going here relating to DLo's shooting, Q, and this specific response was to Cam. (I'll get to yours separately). Cam provided some data to support his assertion that DLo is "one of the better shooters in the league", and I replied with some context. Yes, 39.1% seems like a decent percentage on catch and shoot threes, but his percentage actually puts him quite far down the ladder when it comes to catch and shoot accuracy. If volume and success rate are the two criteria for determining how good a shooter a particular player is (and those were the two criteria Cam provided in his post), he actually ranks in the lower half of the league...just as he ranks in the lower half of the league in TS%. My point was not that DLo is not a floor spacer, but rather that he ranks poorly compared to other volume 3-point shooters. And we need more from our one max salary guard than that if we're going to be a contender.

Your point was different as I interpreted it, because you were saying that unlike Ben Simmons, DLo provides value beyond his shooting percentage since he is a threat to hit a three (as is almost every guard in the association...some more than others) and defenses can't sag off of him. I certainly agree that it seems logical that a non-shooter like Simmons would not be helpful to the offense because of his inability to provide spacing. But is it supported by the data? I realize that we are barely 1/5 of the way into the season, but wouldn't logic say that replacing a non-spacer and poor shooter like Simmons with a 38.5% 3-point shooter like Maxey would improve the team's 3-point shooting? And yet, they have a worse 3-point percentage and overall percentage this year compared to last. My point is that while I agree that Ben is far from being a floor spacer, he is a talented facilitator who runs an offense very well.But is it supported by the data? I realize that we are barely 1/5 of the way into the season, but wouldn't logic say that replacing a non-spacer and poor shooter like Simmons with a 38.5% 3-point shooter like Maxey would improve the team's 3-point shooting? And yet, they have a worse 3-point percentage and overall percentage this year compared to last. My point is that while I agree that Ben is far from being a floor spacer, he is a talented facilitator who runs an offense very well...in addition to being perhaps the best defender in the league. Again, it's a non-starter as a discussion topic because Morey likely wouldn't do the deal, but I think we would be lucky to swap these two max players and instantly be 10 wins better.

The data you use is very narrow. The point of better floor spacing isn't to faciliate better 3-pt shooting but to facilitate a better overall offense. And on that front, Philadelphia is doing better than last year. So yes, Maxey vs. Simmons HAS improved the offense. Defense, now that's another matter....

I'd be more sympathetic to a SImmons trade if our defense was as bad as a lot of us suspected it might be this year, but that simply hasn't been the case.

As for DLO, while he is certainly a flawed player, the good news is he has only one year left on his contract after this season. We can move on from him for free, so to speak, within a reasonable timeframe if we really want to, while Simmons is a massive commitment of cap space for a longer period of time.

As you say, this is all likely hypothetical anyway, but I'm starting to think that it's Gupta that may not be willing to make this deal as much as it is Morey!

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Does anyone else think that ANT might end up being a bigger headcase than KAT and that throwing Ben Simmons into the mix could be fully combustible?

DLO isn't perfect (the sloppy passes and unwillingness to take a charge can be maddening) BUT he's consistent, he's not a head case, and he appears to be the on court leader on O and D.

Would I move players for Simmons? Of course. But I don't see Ben Simmons as a guy that can lead the oversized egos on this team and would likely exacerbate the issues we are beginning to see with KAT and ANT.

I haven't seen evidence that Ant will become a headcase, but it's certainly possible. I'm also not sure what issues you speak of with Ant and KAT. I'm not saying that there is zero tension there, but I haven't seen anything totally dysfunctional yet.

We're .500 after 20 games. That's good enough progress in my mind to suggest we need to stick with this roster and continue to see how things evolve and my guess is the front office feels the same way. Most of the Ben SImmons chatter is just hypothetical and revisiting a question we asked ourselves and debated extensively before the season began.

[Lipoli390]

Does anyone else think that ANT might end up being a bigger headcase than KAT and that throwing Ben Simmons into the mix could be fully combustible?

DLO isn't perfect (the sloppy passes and unwillingness to take a charge can be maddening) BUT he's consistent, he's not a head case, and he appears to be the on court leader on O and D.

Would I move players for Simmons? Of course. But I don't see Ben Simmons as a guy that can lead the oversized egos on this team and would likely exacerbate the issues we are beginning to see with KAT and ANT.

I haven't seen evidence that Ant will become a headcase, but it's certainly possible. I'm also not sure what issues you speak of with Ant and KAT. I'm not saying that there is zero tension there, but I haven't seen anything totally dysfunctional yet.

We're .500 after 20 games. That's good enough progress in my mind to suggest we need to stick with this roster and continue to see how things evolve and my guess is the front office feels the same way. Most of the Ben SImmons chatter is just hypothetical and revisiting a question we asked ourselves and debated extensively before the season began.

I agree, Q. I haven't seen any evidence that Ant will become a headcase. I guess you can say it's possible in the sense that anything is possible. For example, Jordan McLaughlin could become an allstar. But I haven's seen any evidence that will happen either. I only issue we might have seen between KAT and Ant is that face KAT made once after Edwards shot the ball. I suppose KAT might be a bit annoyed from time to time by Ant's aggressive ball domination. I suppose there might be a little jealousy on KAT's part. But I don't see any serious issues there. A little tension is probably good. Ultimately, KAT will become the team's #2 because that's his personality. Unlike Jimmy Butler, Ant is really likable and according to Finch he has a high interpersonal IQ. He'll handle KAT and those two will be fine.

[Leado01]

Does anyone else think that ANT might end up being a bigger headcase than KAT and that throwing Ben Simmons into the mix could be fully combustible?

DLO isn't perfect (the sloppy passes and unwillingness to take a charge can be maddening) BUT he's consistent, he's not a head case, and he appears to be the on court leader on O and D.

Would I move players for Simmons? Of course. But I don't see Ben Simmons as a guy that can lead the oversized egos on this team and would likely exacerbate the issues we are beginning to see with KAT and ANT.

I haven't seen evidence that Ant will become a headcase, but it's certainly possible. I'm also not sure what issues you speak of with Ant and KAT. I'm not saying that there is zero tension there, but I haven't seen anything totally dysfunctional yet.

We're .500 after 20 games. That's good enough progress in my mind to suggest we need to stick with this roster and continue to see how things evolve and my guess is the front office feels the same way. Most of the Ben SImmons chatter is just hypothetical and revisiting a question we asked ourselves and debated extensively before the season began.

I agree, Q. I haven't seen any evidence that Ant will become a headcase. I guess you can say it's possible in the sense that anything is possible. For example, Jordan McLaughlin could become an allstar. But I haven's seen any evidence that will happen either. I only issue we might have seen between KAT and Ant is that face KAT made once after Edwards shot the ball. I suppose KAT might be a bit annoyed from time to time by Ant's aggressive ball domination. I suppose there might be a little jealousy on KAT's part. But I don't see any serious issues there. A little tension is probably good. Ultimately, KAT will become the team's #2 because that's his personality. Unlike Jimmy Butler, Ant is really likable and according to Finch he has a high interpersonal IQ. He'll handle KAT and those two will be fine.

I didn't mean to imply that there was an issue between them. ANT disappears for the most part when he isn't scoring. His defensive effort decreases substantially (often...not always) and he has a tendency to get lost in transition.

KAT has always had a chip. Sometimes it produces great games, and sometimes it produces 3 offensive fouls in a game. He has improved his attitude, but he still hasn't found the balance.

They both occasionally disconnect from the team.

The point of the post was that DLO does seem to have relatively even performances game over game, is not terribly emotional, and does seem to take a leadership role ON the court. I'm not convinced Simmons can provide that.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Does anyone else think that ANT might end up being a bigger headcase than KAT and that throwing Ben Simmons into the mix could be fully combustible?

DLO isn't perfect (the sloppy passes and unwillingness to take a charge can be maddening) BUT he's consistent, he's not a head case, and he appears to be the on court leader on O and D.

Would I move players for Simmons? Of course. But I don't see Ben Simmons as a guy that can lead the oversized egos on this team and would likely exacerbate the issues we are beginning to see with KAT and ANT.

I haven't seen evidence that Ant will become a headcase, but it's certainly possible. I'm also not sure what issues you speak of with Ant and KAT. I'm not saying that there is zero tension there, but I haven't seen anything totally dysfunctional yet.

We're .500 after 20 games. That's good enough progress in my mind to suggest we need to stick with this roster and continue to see how things evolve and my guess is the front office feels the same way. Most of the Ben SImmons chatter is just hypothetical and revisiting a question we asked ourselves and debated extensively before the season began.

I agree, Q. I haven't seen any evidence that Ant will become a headcase. I guess you can say it's possible in the sense that anything is possible. For example, Jordan McLaughlin could become an allstar. But I haven's seen any evidence that will happen either. I only issue we might have seen between KAT and Ant is that face KAT made once after Edwards shot the ball. I suppose KAT might be a bit annoyed from time to time by Ant's aggressive ball domination. I suppose there might be a little jealousy on KAT's part. But I don't see any serious issues there. A little tension is probably good. Ultimately, KAT will become the team's #2 because that's his personality. Unlike Jimmy Butler, Ant is really likable and according to Finch he has a high interpersonal IQ. He'll handle KAT and those two will be fine.

I didn't mean to imply that there was an issue between them. ANT disappears for the most part when he isn't scoring. His defensive effort decreases substantially (often...not always) and he has a tendency to get lost in transition.

KAT has always had a chip. Sometimes it produces great games, and sometimes it produces 3 offensive fouls in a game. He has improved his attitude, but he still hasn't found the balance.

They both occasionally disconnect from the team.

The point of the post was that DLO does seem to have relatively even performances game over game, is not terribly emotional, and does seem to take a leadership role ON the court. I'm not convinced Simmons can provide that.

I agree that DLO seems to be a fairly even keel that provides a ballast to the more volatile KAT and Edwards. That being said, I don't think any of these three have emerged as a true #1 yet. KAT can clearly be a #2 on a contending team, there is no question in my mind. The door is wide open for Edwards to seize that #1 spot, but he needs to become a more efficient scorer. He certainly has the confidence and moxie to take over a game, but he isn't an elite shot maker yet.

[FNG]

I've also noticed recently how DLo's evenkeeledness balances out the more emotional KAT and Ant. His postgame comments also generally reflect the Tom Kelly mantra...never too high, never too low. I also appreciated his postgame comment (in response to a question about his defense) that "his boys" get on him about defense much more than the media. I'm just guessing, but I suspect that PatBev is the loudest voice among those "boys", and that he is a major reason for his improved defense and career-first strong on/off stats.

I still would be excited about a max player swap with the 76ers, but also like the way this team is playing right now.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

We're quickly approaching the halfway mark of the season so I figure this thread might become more relevant over the ensuing weeks. Not much has changed since we last discussed the topic of Ben Simmons, but there is one interesting avenue that appears to be shaking out.

The Portland Trail Blazers are currently 14-22 and sit 12th in the Western Conference. They are just a game back of the 10th-seed Sacramento Kings for a play-in spot, but what a disappointing season they've had to date. There's obviously still time for them to turn it around to some degree, but if this continues, then we'll definitely hear some trade chatter surrounding the Blazers and Damian Lillard. Losing especially creates chaos within the media and their focus on star player movement.

Why is that relevant? Well, it's no secret that Daryl Morey is infatuated with adding Lillard to the Sixers. And who could blame him? A Lillard and Joel Embiid pairing likely puts them in the mix for a title run. The problem is that Philadelphia's most significant trade chip has yet to appear in a game this season. They would clearly like to swap Simmons for Lillard if they could.

If Portland trades Lillard, then I have to believe they're going for a full rebuild while likely building around budding star Anfernee Simons. Simmons -- not to be confused with Simons -- doesn't boost that team into a contender. Replacing Lillard with Simmons leaves that team in the same position they're in now, if not worse. I think they're more likely to sell off parts and build through the draft as they always have if they trade their franchise player.

I think that development would create a window of opportunity for Minnesota, assuming they're still interested in acquiring Simmons. Their package of youthful talent and future draft picks would appeal more to a team that's starting a rebuild than a contender looking for a win-now piece. In this scenario, we'd see a blockbuster trade with Lillard heading to Philadelphia, Simmons heading to Minnesota, and a players/picks package heading to Portland.

With all of that said, I think the Wolves trading for Simmons at this juncture would be a miscalculation. The Wolves should be focused on upgrading on the perimeter, specifically at the wing -- not getting distracted by the Simmons hoopla. He's an elite talent, but perhaps not what Minnesota needs.

[Jester1534]

We're quickly approaching the halfway mark of the season so I figure this thread might become more relevant over the ensuing weeks. Not much has changed since we last discussed the topic of Ben Simmons, but there is one interesting avenue that appears to be shaking out.

The Portland Trail Blazers are currently 14-22 and sit 12th in the Western Conference. They are just a game back of the 10th-seed Sacramento Kings for a play-in spot, but what a disappointing season they've had to date. There's obviously still time for them to turn it around to some degree, but if this continues, then we'll definitely hear some trade chatter surrounding the Blazers and Damian Lillard. Losing especially creates chaos within the media and their focus on star player movement.

Why is that relevant? Well, it's no secret that Daryl Morey is infatuated with adding Lillard to the Sixers. And who could blame him? A Lillard and Joel Embiid pairing likely puts them in the mix for a title run. The problem is that Philadelphia's most significant trade chip has yet to appear in a game this season. They would clearly like to swap Simmons for Lillard if they could.

If Portland trades Lillard, then I have to believe they're going for a full rebuild while likely building around budding star Anfernee Simons. Simmons -- not to be confused with Simons -- doesn't boost that team into a contender. Replacing Lillard with Simmons leaves that team in the same position they're in now, if not worse. I think they're more likely to sell off parts and build through the draft as they always have if they trade their franchise player.

I think that development would create a window of opportunity for Minnesota, assuming they're still interested in acquiring Simmons. Their package of youthful talent and future draft picks would appeal more to a team that's starting a rebuild than a contender looking for a win-now piece. In this scenario, we'd see a blockbuster trade with Lillard heading to Philadelphia, Simmons heading to Minnesota, and a players/picks package heading to Portland.

With all of that said, I think the Wolves trading for Simmons at this juncture would be a miscalculation. The Wolves should be focused on upgrading on the perimeter, specifically at the wing -- not getting distracted by the Simmons hoopla. He's an elite talent, but perhaps not what Minnesota needs.

After these last 10 games I've been convinced this team needs a starter caliber wing.

Last night was perfect example with how Prince played how dangerous this team can be. The problem is we've only seen this type of performance out of him 2-3 times this year.

I would love to be third team in the deal. Look how Cleveland fleeced everyone with Jarret Allen in the Harden trade.

Cavs receive: C Jarrett Allen, F Taurean Prince & rights to Aleksandar Vezenkov (57th overall pick in 2017) from Nets

Cavs trade: G Dante Exum & 2022 first-round pick (via Milwaukee) to Houston | 2024 second-round pick to Brooklyn

Which they turned Prince into a good version of Ricky Rubio before his injury.

The problem is I don't see wing on either blazers or 76ers that I would be interested in. I haven't seen Roco play in forever but I assume he would be upgrade over prince but he doesn't move the needle at all.

[kekgeek]

Think this thread is still relevant, because of the Wolves really interesting future going forward. This Wolves team has been really fun to watch, I am enjoy this team but the future is really cloudy (Not saying in a good or bad way) so Simmons still needs to be brought up because he is a damn good basketball player and still has 4 years left on his deal. The reasons the Wolves future is interesting is.

Dlo: Best year as a wolf and he can't hit a shot to save his life this year. He is extension eligible this offseason and do the Wolves want to pay Dlo long term? Dlo best 2 years as a pro have come in possible contract years so that is something to monitor. Dlo is a good basketball player and I defend him a lot but he is not a max player and could someone create his playmaking a cheaper cost going forward? (Not saying they can either way)

Kat: This offseason Kat will have the most trade value he will ever have. With 2 year left on his deal this offseason, Kat and the Wolves need to ask themselves these things. If Kat makes an All NBA team this offseason he will be eligible for the super max. Do the Wolves want to pay a guy who is in the low 20s high teens of best basketball players in the world the super max? Or if Kat does not make an All NBA team (What is possible with Jokic a lock, Gobert having his best season and the Jazz are better and then Embiid leading the Simmons less 76ers to the playoffs) will Kat want out because playing on the Wolves will cost him significant money again because he is not winning at the highest level. In no way do I think Kat is the problem but they are legit questions about what Kat and the Wolves want to do with eachother going forward.

Naz: Will be an expiring and he will get paid, do you want to spend big money on a backup C, who has improved every year but has continued to struggle on defense and has not played well with Kat, so that lineup combo might not be possible going forward

Pat Bev: He will be a free agent. He has helped this Wolves team a lot this year but he is a 35 year old often injured player, so how much do you want to invest in him

Beasley: Will be an expiring contact. Still the Wolves 2nd best 3 pt shooter on a team that struggles to shoot. How much do you want to invest in Beasley going forward and what is his trade value

Ant/Mcdaniels/Nowell: All 3 young guys who have varying degrees of upside. How high can they go because I think this is a huge part of the Wolves continuing success.

This is why Simmons still needs to be talked about because the Wolves have such an interesting offseason ahead where they could set them up for huge future success or they could really fuck it up and be left with just Ant on a big max contract going forward. Interesting spot going forward and that is why Simmons threads will always be interesting to me.