Page 60 of 185
Re: Official 2016 Draft Thread
Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 10:09 pm
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
TeamRicky wrote:Actually DRating is a very useful stat. I would say it has a pretty good predictive ability to measure how good a player's defense is. This is a new stat so you can only go back about 5 years, but I have been studying this stat's predictive powers and I am pretty amazed by it. Of course its not 100%, but no stat is. But by far the best stat to predict defensive ability that there is. I am in the middle of studying each player's D-Rating in college as a predictor of advanced defensive stats in the NBA.
The good news is KAT has the best D-Rating of all the NBA players I have looked at so far.
.
TR, where do you get D-Rtg stats for college players and is it using the same formula as the b-ball reference individual D-Rtg (which as you probably know, heavily relies on team defense and assigns players their portion of it, along with individual box score stuff).
Re: Official 2016 Draft Thread
Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 10:15 pm
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
TeamRicky wrote:Actually DRating is a very useful stat. I would say it has a pretty good predictive ability to measure how good a player's defense is. This is a new stat so you can only go back about 5 years, but I have been studying this stat's predictive powers and I am pretty amazed by it. Of course its not 100%, but no stat is. But by far the best stat to predict defensive ability that there is. I am in the middle of studying each player's D-Rating in college as a predictor of advanced defensive stats in the NBA.
I'm going to make one point and leave it to you to tell me how great DRtg is as a stat.
Grayson Allen: 106.8
Jamal Murray: 103.1
This would indicate that Murray's the better defender when in reality he's not even close to Allen. Eye test matters more than DRtg.
Re: Official 2016 Draft Thread
Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 10:16 pm
by TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]
Q, I use B-Ball Reference stats. Yes, the formula is pretty complicated but it takes into account steals, blocks, defensive rebounds and opponent FG%. Perhaps, there is some distortion based on how good your teammates play defense, but even so, I find a pretty high correlation between college DRating and how that player plays defense in the NBA. Towns, AD, Kawhi, Noel, Hassan Whiteside, Larry Sanders, Crowder, Myles Turner, Demarcus Cousins are some of the players with outstanding college D-Rating.
Re: Official 2016 Draft Thread
Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 10:19 pm
by TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]
Camden wrote:TeamRicky wrote:Actually DRating is a very useful stat. I would say it has a pretty good predictive ability to measure how good a player's defense is. This is a new stat so you can only go back about 5 years, but I have been studying this stat's predictive powers and I am pretty amazed by it. Of course its not 100%, but no stat is. But by far the best stat to predict defensive ability that there is. I am in the middle of studying each player's D-Rating in college as a predictor of advanced defensive stats in the NBA.
I'm going to make one point and leave it to you to tell me how great DRtg is as a stat.
Grayson Allen: 106.8
Jamal Murray: 103.1
This would indicate that Murray's the better defender when in reality he's not even close to Allen. Eye test matters more than DRtg.
Camden wrote:TeamRicky wrote:Actually DRating is a very useful stat. I would say it has a pretty good predictive ability to measure how good a player's defense is. This is a new stat so you can only go back about 5 years, but I have been studying this stat's predictive powers and I am pretty amazed by it. Of course its not 100%, but no stat is. But by far the best stat to predict defensive ability that there is. I am in the middle of studying each player's D-Rating in college as a predictor of advanced defensive stats in the NBA.
I'm going to make one point and leave it to you to tell me how great DRtg is as a stat.
Grayson Allen: 106.8
Jamal Murray: 103.1
This would indicate that Murray's the better defender when in reality he's not even close to Allen. Eye test matters more than DRtg.
Anything over 100 is pretty bad. 85 and less is outstanding. 85-95 is good. 95-100 is mediocre. The only decent defender I have found over 100 is Butler (who I think developed that side of his game under Thibs). Wiggins and Lavine are over 100 and their NBA defensive stats aren't good. I still think they can be plus defenders but they need to work at it. Bazz had the second worst college D-Rating I have found so far and not surprisingly he had the worst DRPM in the league the last time I checked.
Re: Official 2016 Draft Thread
Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 10:24 pm
by TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]
Cam, I am not discounting eye test, but advanced stats are useful as long as you know their limitations.
Re: Official 2016 Draft Thread
Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 10:25 pm
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
TeamRicky wrote:Cam, I am not discounting eye test, but advanced stats are useful as long as you know their limitations.
Bingo.
Re: Official 2016 Draft Thread
Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 10:31 pm
by Hicks123 [enjin:6700838]
Yesterday was the first I had seen Baldwin. One game I know...but not impressive in any fashion. Doesn't look ready. Certainly, nothing special yet.
Re: Official 2016 Draft Thread
Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 10:33 pm
by TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]
Cam I liked it better when you were pimping Poeltl at least he's a guy who I could get behind. Murray does nothing for me. We already have Zach Lavine and desperately need two way players, not another Bazz on the second unit. I could get behind Allen before Murray at least because we could draft him in the 20s, but I'd still rather go for a guy who passes both the eye and stat test as a defender.
Re: Official 2016 Draft Thread
Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 10:40 pm
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
TeamRicky wrote:Cam I liked it better when you were pimping Poeltl at least he's a guy who I could get behind. Murray does nothing for me. We already have Zach Lavine and desperately need two way players, not another Bazz on the second unit. I could get behind Allen before Murray at least because we could draft him in the 20s, but I'd still rather go for a guy who passes both the eye and stat test as a defender.
I don't know what to tell you about that. Over this past week, you've talked about him like you haven't really even watched him play. I can't make you watch the games.
Both Poeltl and Murray are top-five talents in this draft. Both should absolutely be in the discussion for our pick should we stay in the top-five. That's where I'll leave that.
Re: Official 2016 Draft Thread
Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 11:38 pm
by Monster
Camden0916 wrote:Keep in mind these mock drafts are where they predict these players will be taken (which when it comes to draft time they have been pretty accurate) and it may not be how DX actually values the prospect. They typically have top lists of players if you want to see how they may value a guy.
DX's mock draft is just their big board. They even state: "Team needs have NOT been taken into account."
Their big board would be their top 100 which has him even lower. Lol I still think their rankings are influenced by what they here from teams not just their evaluation. I could be wrong (wouldn't be the first time lol) and ultimately the rankings they have right now are good to look at but we all know guys can rise and fall pretty quickly the next few weeks for various reasons.