Minnesota Sports Forum

LBJ, Davis, Dlo all out tonight
SGA out tonight
Ja Morant accused of beating up a 17 year old and holding them at gun point

The win last night has increased our cushion over the three teams I see missing the playoffs now to a comfortable 4 games...I have us now at 42 wins, and Utah, OkC and Portland all at 38. Even Jim Mora thinks we are a lock to make the playoffs now...this is why the three posters who choose the "missing the playoffs" option in the poll were wise to remain anonymous!

(although I think we know who you are ;) )

It seems like the race for 2nd through 13th isn't getting any clearer...still only 8 1/2 games separating these 12 teams! The Wolves are now alone in 6th (just 1/2 game out of 5th), and my spreadsheet has them finishing in a 4-way tie for 5th with Dallas and the two LA teams...the tie break rules are so complicated in this case, I am not sure who would get the 5th seed. But if it's who has the best record against the group of 4, I suspect we would end up with the 5th seed and what I think would be a terrific (and winnable) 4/5 series against the Kings, followed by a terrific (and winnable) 1/5 series against the Nuggets...but I'm getting ahead of myself!

A word of caution: while my spreadsheet has been quite accurate with respect to most of the teams in the race (i.e. very few what Tim would call anti-Klunkers), the big exception is the Wolves. Oddly, EVERY one of the six Wolves games since I started tracking has gone the other way! I had them beating Washington, Charlotte and GS, and losing to the two LA teams and Sacramento...and they have a good chance of surprising me again tomorrow against Philly! This team is unpredictable, so the margin of error for them is wider than any other team.

I tweaked the tiers in the KOM, moving the Bulls to the Bottom, the Knicks and Kings to the Top, and the Clippers and Mavs into the middle. My spreadsheet does not account for tie-breakers.

Quite similar to mine, Tim, except your "playoff cushion" is even larger than mine...4 games over both the Blazers and Jazz. Things would really have to go to hell in two directions (multiple klunkers for us and anti-klunkers for them) for us to miss the playoffs. Very encouraging!

60WinTim wrote:I tweaked the tiers in the KOM, moving the Bulls to the Bottom, the Knicks and Kings to the Top, and the Clippers and Mavs into the middle. My spreadsheet does not account for tie-breakers.

Code: Select all

Klunk-O-Meter

Top Teams:		76ers,Bucks,Cavaliers,Celtics,Grizzlies,Kings,Knicks,Nuggets,Suns

Bottom Teams:		Bulls,Hornets,Magic,Pacers,Pistons,Rockets,Spurs


Projections:
Seed	Team	Wins	Losses
2.	Griz	55	27
3.	Kings	54	28
4.	Suns	52	30
5.	Clips	43	39
6.	Mavs	41	41
7.	Lakers	41	41
8.	Wolves	41	41
9.	Pels	40	42
10.	Warrior	39	43
11.	Blazers	37	45
12.	Jazz	37	45
13.	Thunder	36	46

Thanks for sharing this, Doug. I have some thoughts.

- The Warriors finishing the season 5-11 with a healthy Steph Curry would be wild. I don't know about that one. Seems like they would be better.

- Damian Lillard and the Blazers have typically been strong finishers. They've had some injuries this season so who knows exactly what that team is made of. They could finish 6-11, as this model projects, or they could run off 11-6. I wouldn't be surprised either way, or something in between. Dame is special.

- The Thunder have won three straight and have a number of very winnable games left on the schedule. They haven't tanked yet and I'm wondering if that's even on the table at this point. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey are too good. Do they get benched? Will they go 5-12 down the stretch?

I think the standings will be much closer with seeds 7-12 than this shows. I haven't seen a season like this before. Buckle up!

Great points, Cam. I agree this season is just amazing how bunched all the teams are. And if anyone gets hot, they could easily move up while causing someone else to drop.

I keep track of how many klunker/anti-klunkers a team has. If a team gets hot, like the Warriors, then I would move them up to the top tier and the remaing forecasts will automatically update. It wouldn't surprise me if the Mavs and Clippers do that, too. But so far, none of those teams have put it all together.

It's fun to watch because the race is so tight with so many teams, plus the Wolves are in the middle of it, too!

Before I left on my trip, it looked like the Wolves might miss the playoffs all together. But their 3-1 road trip really gave them a boost.

60WinTim wrote:I tweaked the tiers in the KOM, moving the Bulls to the Bottom, the Knicks and Kings to the Top, and the Clippers and Mavs into the middle. My spreadsheet does not account for tie-breakers.

Code: Select all

Klunk-O-Meter

Top Teams:		76ers,Bucks,Cavaliers,Celtics,Grizzlies,Kings,Knicks,Nuggets,Suns

Bottom Teams:		Bulls,Hornets,Magic,Pacers,Pistons,Rockets,Spurs


Projections:
Seed	Team	Wins	Losses
2.	Griz	55	27
3.	Kings	54	28
4.	Suns	52	30
5.	Clips	43	39
6.	Mavs	41	41
7.	Lakers	41	41
8.	Wolves	41	41
9.	Pels	40	42
10.	Warrior	39	43
11.	Blazers	37	45
12.	Jazz	37	45
13.	Thunder	36	46

Good stuff - keep it coming.

Tonight the Blazers, Mavs and Thunder should lose, and the Nuggets, Pelicans, Suns and Clippers should win.

The Mavs at Pels is of particular interest. Are the Pels really collapsing? Is this the start of Luka and Kyrie lobbying for the Top Tier?

Oh, and Go Raptors! :-D

Pelicans beat the Mavs. Luka got hurt also