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Re: Asset Inventory
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2023 2:35 pm
by WallyBall
We should replace Dlo if it makes our team better. I'm in the camp that I agree with replacing him for an asset that fits better. However, I am not in the camp of trading him with the end goal of addition by subtraction, as I don't think this bears out. He is not a terrible player, he's just an average player when you weigh his pluses and minuses. He is not worth his contract, but where I agree with Cam is that he has a place in this league, just like Wiggins and his previously perceived untradeable contract. And Dlo's money comes off the books soon enough, which could help a large majority of teams that are not in our same luxury tax crunch. Dlo just doesn't fit what we need from him or pay for him... he would be a top tier 6th man with his streaky shooting and bad defense.
We need to replace him with another expensive but distressed asset that fits better, a "Wiggins." This allows us to take advantage of our precariously expensive team, where as losing his contract in the short term for less expensive players hurts us rather then helps us. Also allowing us to have better roster construction when you take the price tag out of it!
The good news is we have a rising star in Ant, another young budding player in McDaniels, a good second fiddle in Towns, and a bunch of decent, if not good roll players.
Also, side note, Gobert might make us better defensively, but not to the point that it is helping us win game's consistently. Buyers remorse BIG time.
Re: Asset Inventory
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2023 2:42 pm
by AbeVigodaLive
WolvesFan21 wrote:leado01 wrote:WolvesFan21 wrote:thedoper wrote:I think looking to McLaughlin to replace
Dlo is foolish. But I also dont think that is the majority opinion of the board. I dont think its controversial or inaccurate to say Dlo has to be really on offensively for us to get a win. Too many injuries and too many bad defenders (Dlo being one of the worst of the starters) to not get Dlo's offensive A game.
Who is saying JMac is a starter? I only said he has been better than DLO.
?
Uhh...what? By what measurement (PER-A/TO, Shooting?, availability?)
Team is better when he is on the floor. He plays hard, talent can only take someone so far.
McLaughlin is a caretaker PG, who plays the vast majority of his minutes vs. backups. Nobody has ever developed a game plan to make things difficult for Jordan McLaughlin.
And if he's unable to make even a 1/3 of his three pointers... you better believe teams will start treating him like vintage Avery Johnson. That would leave the Wolves with two non-shooters/scorers in the starting lineup. That's a tough ask in today's NBA.
We can discuss his merits as a valuable backup, but anything more than that seems misguided.
Re: Asset Inventory
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2023 2:43 pm
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
D'Angelo Russell (2022-23)
Age: 26
GP: 35
PPG: 17.0
APG: 6.5
AST%: 28.3
TOV%: 15.9
RPG: 3.2
SPG: 1.1
2P%: 56.3
3P%: 34.9
FT%: 84.2
TS%: .579
USG%: 22.6
EPM: +1.1
RPM: +2.48
BPM: +0.3
RAPTOR: -0.6
WAR: 1.3
VORP: 0.7
Jordan Mclaughlin (2022-23)
Age: 26
GP: 18
PPG: 4.1
APG: 3.6
AST%: 28.9
TOV%: 16.7
RPG: 1.7
SPG: 0.8
2P%: 62.5
3P%: 23.5
FT%: 100.0
TS%: .522
USG%: 12.4
EPM: -0.7
RPM: -1.37
BPM: +0.1
RAPTOR: +2.3
WAR: 0.7
VORP: 0.2
I'm sharing this in-season comparison of traditional and advanced per game averages, as well as the most reliable "catch-all" metrics free to the public, and then not further subjecting myself to the discussion because it's stupid at this point. The disdain for Russell on this board has reached comical levels and the back-and-forth is no longer productive.
Additionally, we could make similar comparisons to other available, or potentially available, options in the backcourt, and come to the conclusion that Russell is a good-not-great player, and the grass may not actually be greener on the other side -- the side that doesn't involve him remaining in Minnesota either at the trade deadline or in the off-season. Be careful what you wish for.
Re: Asset Inventory
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2023 2:57 pm
by Wolvesfan21
AbeVigodaLive wrote:WolvesFan21 wrote:leado01 wrote:WolvesFan21 wrote:thedoper wrote:I think looking to McLaughlin to replace
Dlo is foolish. But I also dont think that is the majority opinion of the board. I dont think its controversial or inaccurate to say Dlo has to be really on offensively for us to get a win. Too many injuries and too many bad defenders (Dlo being one of the worst of the starters) to not get Dlo's offensive A game.
Who is saying JMac is a starter? I only said he has been better than DLO.
?
Uhh...what? By what measurement (PER-A/TO, Shooting?, availability?)
Team is better when he is on the floor. He plays hard, talent can only take someone so far.
McLaughlin is a caretaker PG, who plays the vast majority of his minutes vs. backups. Nobody has ever developed a game plan to make things difficult for Jordan McLaughlin.
And if he's unable to make even a 1/3 of his three pointers... you better believe teams will start treating him like vintage Avery Johnson. That would leave the Wolves with two non-shooters/scorers in the starting lineup. That's a tough ask in today's NBA.
We can discuss his merits as a valuable backup, but anything more than that seems misguided.
The Wolves are better when a guy takes care of the ball and go gets the ball. Does DLO play another game for the Wolves? It's looking unlikely at this point. It's an interesting downfall. DLO has the great play in game to help the Wolves make the Playoffs (KAT was in foul trouble if I remember correctly if not fouled out). Then has a terrible playoff series, is benched, starts this year terribly, starts to make some shots and plays a few good games. Still doesn't defend and rebound though. Team has a player only meeting for nearly an hour. DLO stops following the Wolves on social media, DLO is all of a sudden sick. DLO gets traded.
Re: Asset Inventory
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:09 pm
by FNG
DLo is a guy who can get hot from time to time and win a game for you, but he has two main drawbacks:
1)His defense, which has always been a problem, seems to have taken a step back this season. Our defense looked much better last night with him mot available.
2) His game doesn't seem to mesh with our star players. Ant, KAT and Rudy were all considered top 25 players in ESPN's preseason rankings, and yet Russell manages to have a negative net rating with all three in nba.com's 2-man lineups. In contrast, JMac is +21.3 with Towns, +5.7 with Rudy, and a +22.8 with Ant!
Kyle Anderson also has a positive net rating with Rudy and KAT, and is neutral with Ant. And Kyle considers himself a PG and looks quite comfortable in the role.
The secret of success for this team is finding players who can unlock the potential of our three stars while playing at least average defense, and we seem to have two point guards who meet that criteria and one who doesn't. Granted, last night was only one game. But I think most of us would agree that both our defense and offense looked better last night than it did during our losing streak.
Re: Asset Inventory
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:09 pm
by AbeVigodaLive
Camden wrote:D'Angelo Russell (2022-23)
Age: 26
GP: 35
PPG: 17.0
APG: 6.5
AST%: 28.3
TOV%: 15.9
RPG: 3.2
SPG: 1.1
2P%: 56.3
3P%: 34.9
FT%: 84.2
TS%: .579
USG%: 22.6
EPM: +1.1
RPM: +2.48
BPM: +0.3
RAPTOR: -0.6
WAR: 1.3
VORP: 0.7
Jordan Mclaughlin (2022-23)
Age: 26
GP: 18
PPG: 4.1
APG: 3.6
AST%: 28.9
TOV%: 16.7
RPG: 1.7
SPG: 0.8
2P%: 62.5
3P%: 23.5
FT%: 100.0
TS%: .522
USG%: 12.4
EPM: -0.7
RPM: -1.37
BPM: +0.1
RAPTOR: +2.3
WAR: 0.7
VORP: 0.2
I'm sharing this in-season comparison of traditional and advanced per game averages, as well as the most reliable "catch-all" metrics free to the public, and then not further subjecting myself to the discussion because it's stupid at this point. The disdain for Russell on this board has reached comical levels and the back-and-forth is no longer productive.
Additionally, we could make similar comparisons to other available, or potentially available, options in the backcourt, and come to the conclusion that Russell is a good-not-great player, and the grass may not actually be greener on the other side -- the side that doesn't involve him remaining in Minnesota either at the trade deadline or in the off-season.
Thanks for sharing. While I don't understand all those stats or their context... for example Ast% and TOV% seem almost identical. But per 36... McLaughlin has a clear edge in A/TO ratio: (8.2/1.8 vs. 7.1/3.0).
But that's minor stuff. Russell is a superior talent. And a better player.
Now that we agree on that... Russell does maddening things that have made him a polarizing player for fans, talking heads and front offices even outside of MN. His effort has been questioned. His defense has been questioned. His intensity has been questioned. And he plays a very deliberate style that relies more on tough pull-ups than driving and getting to the line. More importantly, his style is one where he's a key cog in the machine, where I think people dig a McLaughlin type because he lets others take center stage. (Obviously, that has limitations in the end...)
I'm ok with Russell on this team even as I've often acknowledged that I'm not a fan of his offensive style, demeanor or defensive effort. But he simply hasn't produced like you'd expect a $30M player in his prime to produce. Do you think he's going to get better? I don't see it happening. So I'd hesitate on paying him $30M again even with the salary cap increase.
I think the discussion is different if he's a $14 - $18M guy, and I'd love it if he was a top-notch 6th man. Some would still dig him, while others hate him... but at least the expectations would be tempered with a contract more in line with who he is as a player.
Re: Asset Inventory
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:37 pm
by Leado01
WolvesFan21 wrote:AbeVigodaLive wrote:WolvesFan21 wrote:leado01 wrote:WolvesFan21 wrote:thedoper wrote:I think looking to McLaughlin to replace
Dlo is foolish. But I also dont think that is the majority opinion of the board. I dont think its controversial or inaccurate to say Dlo has to be really on offensively for us to get a win. Too many injuries and too many bad defenders (Dlo being one of the worst of the starters) to not get Dlo's offensive A game.
Who is saying JMac is a starter? I only said he has been better than DLO.
?
Uhh...what? By what measurement (PER-A/TO, Shooting?, availability?)
Team is better when he is on the floor. He plays hard, talent can only take someone so far.
McLaughlin is a caretaker PG, who plays the vast majority of his minutes vs. backups. Nobody has ever developed a game plan to make things difficult for Jordan McLaughlin.
And if he's unable to make even a 1/3 of his three pointers... you better believe teams will start treating him like vintage Avery Johnson. That would leave the Wolves with two non-shooters/scorers in the starting lineup. That's a tough ask in today's NBA.
We can discuss his merits as a valuable backup, but anything more than that seems misguided.
The Wolves are better when a guy takes care of the ball and go gets the ball. Does DLO play another game for the Wolves? It's looking unlikely at this point. It's an interesting downfall. DLO has the great play in game to help the Wolves make the Playoffs (KAT was in foul trouble if I remember correctly if not fouled out). Then has a terrible playoff series, is benched, starts this year terribly, starts to make some shots and plays a few good games. Still doesn't defend and rebound though. Team has a player only meeting for nearly an hour. DLO stops following the Wolves on social media, DLO is all of a sudden sick. DLO gets traded.
Some of the statements presented here as facts are pretty deceiving.
DLO definitely did not come out of the gates on fire offensively, but his defense, with a few exceptions, has been pretty damn good and his hips and feet have been driving the offense to the spot Finch wants them driven to as well as anyone (so the narrative that he doesn't defend is questionable).
Offensively it's hard to argue with DLO's numbers since the end of November....
Yes, we see a sloppy pass every game from.DLO, but he's certainly not alone with that problem.
An alternative explanation to why DLO unfollowed the Wolves on social media would be that a fair portion of the Wolves base blames DLO for everything, and he might be a little tired of seeing it.
The Wolves fan base turned on Wiggins early on and they turned on DLO early on in the same way. That doesn't mean the fan base is correct or incorrect (as we were with Wiggins) and I agree that DLO is a $12-$18 m player, not a max guy.
But he's a pg that can deliver devastating PNR, create his own shot, deliver in the clutch, hit 3's, and play acceptable team defense, which is about what we need.
I don't think we're getting rid of him or letting him go. Finch sees what he has and is still tweaking making it work through injuries.
Re: Asset Inventory
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:40 pm
by AbeVigodaLive
Wolves fans turned on Wiggins early?
He was with the franchise for 5.5 years.
Re: Asset Inventory
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:45 pm
by Wolvesfan21
leado01 wrote:WolvesFan21 wrote:AbeVigodaLive wrote:WolvesFan21 wrote:leado01 wrote:WolvesFan21 wrote:thedoper wrote:I think looking to McLaughlin to replace
Dlo is foolish. But I also dont think that is the majority opinion of the board. I dont think its controversial or inaccurate to say Dlo has to be really on offensively for us to get a win. Too many injuries and too many bad defenders (Dlo being one of the worst of the starters) to not get Dlo's offensive A game.
Who is saying JMac is a starter? I only said he has been better than DLO.
?
Uhh...what? By what measurement (PER-A/TO, Shooting?, availability?)
Team is better when he is on the floor. He plays hard, talent can only take someone so far.
McLaughlin is a caretaker PG, who plays the vast majority of his minutes vs. backups. Nobody has ever developed a game plan to make things difficult for Jordan McLaughlin.
And if he's unable to make even a 1/3 of his three pointers... you better believe teams will start treating him like vintage Avery Johnson. That would leave the Wolves with two non-shooters/scorers in the starting lineup. That's a tough ask in today's NBA.
We can discuss his merits as a valuable backup, but anything more than that seems misguided.
The Wolves are better when a guy takes care of the ball and go gets the ball. Does DLO play another game for the Wolves? It's looking unlikely at this point. It's an interesting downfall. DLO has the great play in game to help the Wolves make the Playoffs (KAT was in foul trouble if I remember correctly if not fouled out). Then has a terrible playoff series, is benched, starts this year terribly, starts to make some shots and plays a few good games. Still doesn't defend and rebound though. Team has a player only meeting for nearly an hour. DLO stops following the Wolves on social media, DLO is all of a sudden sick. DLO gets traded.
Some of the statements presented here as facts are pretty deceiving.
DLO definitely did not come out of the gates on fire offensively, but his defense, with a few exceptions, has been pretty damn good and his hips and feet have been driving the offense to the spot Finch wants them driven to as well as anyone (so the narrative that he doesn't defend is questionable).
Offensively it's hard to argue with DLO's numbers since the end of November....
Yes, we see a sloppy pass every game from.DLO, but he's certainly not alone with that problem.
An alternative explanation to why DLO unfollowed the Wolves on social media would be that a fair portion of the Wolves base blames DLO for everything, and he might be a little tired of seeing it.
The Wolves fan base turned on Wiggins early on and they turned on DLO early on in the same way. That doesn't mean the fan base is correct or incorrect (as we were with Wiggins) and I agree that DLO is a $12-$18 m player, not a max guy.
But he's a pg that can deliver devastating PNR, create his own shot, deliver in the clutch, hit 3's, and play acceptable team defense, which is about what we need.
I don't think we're getting rid of him or letting him go. Finch sees what he has and is still tweaking making it work through injuries.
I don't think it's a coincidence. Players only meeting, unfollows Wolves, gets "sick". Bing bang boom. I think he asked to get traded, just not publicly. Maybe not but that is my guess.
Russell is a roller coaster type of player. Some people remember his highs but most of us remember his lows. I was net neutral on the Wiggins trade but I think we got the raw deal. Saying that had Wiggins stayed here he most certainly wouldn't have become the player he has been with GSW. We don't have the leadership they do or the credibility. I don't think many teams could really get what GSW got out of him and his ability.
Re: Asset Inventory
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2023 4:03 pm
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
AbeVigodaLive wrote:I'm ok with Russell on this team even as I've often acknowledged that I'm not a fan of his offensive style, demeanor or defensive effort. But he simply hasn't produced like you'd expect a $30M player in his prime to produce. Do you think he's going to get better? I don't see it happening. So I'd hesitate on paying him $30M again even with the salary cap increase.
I think the discussion is different if he's a $14 - $18M guy, and I'd love it if he was a top-notch 6th man. Some would still dig him, while others hate him... but at least the expectations would be tempered with a contract more in line with who he is as a player.
I think your response is mostly fair, but I think added context could help you and others understand a different perspective with regards to D'Angelo Russell -- hopefully, without spurning more needless debate.
- Russell's current contract was situational and [slightly] bloated from the start. Russell agreed to sign a four-year, $117-million max contract with the Warriors
only when it became clear that Kevin Durant was leaving in free agency. Golden State knew Russell didn't fit their long-term vision, but couldn't allow an asset and max salary slot in Durant to leave without retaining some level of value so they knowingly overpaid and easily won the bid for him. It was reported that both the Lakers and Timberwolves were nearing $100-million offers for Russell. Can't knock somebody for taking the bigger payday and a chance to play alongside Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. But he was never supposed to be a $30-million player even after making the All-Star team. The Nets and Warriors made him one so that they could do the sign-and-trade for Durant.
- Minnesota did not sign Russell to that max contract. They instead mistakenly gave Andrew Wiggins a max contract a year prior and then pivoted off of him by taking back another, yet different, max contract. The wrong had already been committed long before Russell was acquired so it's baffling that his salary continues to be used against him, especially given the current cap situation. Russell could make just
$10-million this year in salary and it would make no tangible difference given that Minnesota is approximately $23-million over the cap. The Timberwolves would not have had any cap space to play with or any further exceptions to use in free agency even if Russell made considerably less. It just doesn't actually matter. It only matters to fans who can't or are unwilling to zoom out and see the bigger picture.
- Outside of a handful of disastrous games, I do think Russell has performed better so far this year, especially in terms of his scoring efficiency (career-high .579 TS%). I still think there's room for improvement there as well considering his three-point shooting is lower than expected, or even lower than it was just a week ago. To me, his last 20 or so games are more indicative of the player he can become more regularly if given enough opportunity and his talents leveraged effectively. That's where coaching comes into play, though.
- I don't see Russell getting another $30-million per year deal given the current market. I've been consistent in my view that he'll potentially be looking at Jalen Brunson money, or four-years and $104-million. Something like that is what I'd expect to be his next contract, which is plenty agreeable, in my opinion, especially once you factor in the expected cap increases. A contract worth $26-million AAV would be just under 19-percent of an expected $134-million cap in 2023, and 18-percent of an expected $143-million cap in 2024, and so on. The "issue" is that he's taking up roughly 25-percent of the $123-million cap for 2022 thanks to the max contract he signed with Golden State. That won't continue moving forward. I would think that the optics and perceived value is much better on his new deal wherever he lands. Although, perhaps not with the majority of Wolves fans who refuse to value him appropriately no matter his salary.