Minnesota Sports Forum

I noticed Flip and Adriean had a pretty friendly greeting last night before the game but didn't think anything of it.

We need 3 point shooting really bad. Neal and Payne could help us get that. Plus this would free up some minutes for LaVine again (though again, not really at an ideal position for him). Payne's not as good as Draymond Green, but they are similar players out of MSU, smart bigs who can shoot the ball and play hard. You could do worse than have a guy like that on the team.

I'm starting to wonder if Bennett has a future here. Or anywhere.

Volans19 wrote:

Camden wrote:Trading for Payne pretty much rules out my trade for T.Jones.

So, at this point, I'd rather just keep Martin. LaVine should get more minutes now with Mo being gone.

Not sure there's anything actually available for Thad that I'd rather have over him. A late first for him would be shitty.

I guess Flip isn't going to buy out Neal

Jerry Zgoda ?@JerryZgoda 19m19 minutes ago

Flip said they have no plans to buy out Gary Neal. Said they needed to get a shooter back in deal

It will be interesting to see what rotations Flip uses now

I meant that LaVine should see more time backing up Ricky at the PG position.

I would not have given up a 1st round pick for Payne. Assuming we're out of the lottery by 2017, we would still likely have a pick in the mid to high teens as a 7th or 8th seed. Maybe a pick in the 19-22 range. In any event, first round picks are valuable assets to have for a rebuilding team like the Wolves. The value of those picks, even in the high teens or low 20s, typically exceeds the value of the players eventually taken with those picks. So I'm not suggesting that we'd pick a player better than Payne with the pick we just gave up even though I would hope so. Instead, I'm suggesting that it would have been a valuable asset to hold and potentially package in a deal for a good veteran to fill a gap in a year or two after we've seen where this team is headed.

As for the value of Payne, I don't see much there. Think about this. As a college senior at a time when his most talented competitors were freshman and sophomores, Payne's numbers weren't particularly impressive, averaging 16 PPG on 50.3% FG shooting, 7.3 boards and 0.9 blocks. Those last two stats are particularly troubling. Given his senior class status, age, length (9.1 overhead reach) and purported athleticism at the PF position in college, those numbers are red flags to me. They suggest a wash-out at the NBA level. Compare his numbers to the college freshman numbers of our popular punching bag named Anthony Bennett: 16.1 points on 53.3% FG shooting, 8.1 rebounds, and 1.38 blocks.

I've been singing Flip's praises lately, but I honestly don't get the notion that Payne is a good acqusition because he brings length to the PF position. So what! There's a guy in the office next to me who's 6'6 but I wouldn't want him on our office basketball team where the next tallest player is 6.2. My point is that length is irrelevant unless it translates into length-related production -- i.e., rebounds, blocks or perhaps a very high FG% reflecting talent as a low post scorer. Payne's length seems inconsequential in light of his paltry 7.3 rebounds and inability to get even 1 block per game as a college senior. His 50% FG shooting as a long, athletic PF and senior isn't impressive either. And he obviously wasn't impressing anyone in the Atlanta organization given the fact that he only played in 3 games.

The only possible salvation in this deal is the possibility that Payne can be a very good stretch PF based on his 3-point shooting ability. He shot 42.3% from behind the college arc as a senior at Mich State. If he can take that percentage or something close to it out to the NBA 3-point line while part of our regular rotation, then this deal may ultimately be considered a success. But if we need anything at the PF position, it's not 3-point shooting; it's physicality, rim-protection/shot-blocking and rebounding -- things that Payne has never shown a propensity to provide even as a long, athletic college senior.

This deal alone won't make or break this franchise. The keys to this organization going forward will be the development of Wiggins, LaVine, Shabazz and possibly Bennett along with the health of Ricky. However, moves like this deal for Payne become problematic cumulatively. In other words, one isolated deal like this is disappointing but not particularly harmful. But string together several deals of this caliber - squandering 1st round picks for the likes of an unproven guy with length but questionable production, and you have what sums up a big part of the reason this franchise has been so bad for so long.

60WinTim wrote:I am not worried about Payne not seeing the court. Atlanta is the best team in the league with load of depth at PF. Where and when was Payne going to play in his rookie year? He's been down in the D-League a lot this year and his numbers are just fine.

With the Wolves in full rebuild mode, it will not be difficult for him to earn playing time.

Maybe, but I would think the same logic would get GR3 lots of playing time and clearly that hasn't happened.

SameOldNudityDrew wrote:I noticed Flip and Adriean had a pretty friendly greeting last night before the game but didn't think anything of it.

We need 3 point shooting really bad. Neal and Payne could help us get that. Plus this would free up some minutes for LaVine again (though again, not really at an ideal position for him). Payne's not as good as Draymond Green, but they are similar players out of MSU, smart bigs who can shoot the ball and play hard. You could do worse than have a guy like that on the team.

I'm starting to wonder if Bennett has a future here. Or anywhere.

Your Draymond Green comparison is an interesting one and helps make the case for this deal. However, I don't recall ever seeing Payne play with the same passion or show the same level of intensity or athleticism as Green. Moreover, Green averaged 10.6 boards and 3.8 assists along with his 16 PPG as a senior. Compare that to Payne's 7.3 boards and 1.3 assists. At the end of the day, the best predictor of production is production. And productions is really what it's all about. Draymond produced rebounding commensurate with his size and athleticism, while Payne did not. The difference between the two in rebounding production reflects a significant gap between the 2 in instincts or effort (perhaps both). The significant assist gap likely reflects a basketball IQ gap. Those are all things that matter most in predicting NBA success -- instincts, effort/intensity and IQ.

I like the addition of Payne and was high on him pre draft.

Fits the mold of athletic - shot blocking - stretch - young PF we need.

"The keys to this organization going forward will be the development of Wiggins, LaVine, Shabazz [highlight=#ddd123]and possibly Bennett[/highlight] along with the health of Ricky."

Boy oh boy. We're still that high on him?

KiwiMatt wrote:I like the addition of Payne and was high on him pre draft.

Fits the mold of athletic - shot blocking - stretch - young PF we need.

Matt -- I'm with you on the "stretch" part of your thinking. But Payne has NEVER been a shot-blocker, averaging LESS than a block per game playing 28 minutes per game as a college senior. That's incredibly bad for a supposedly athletic college senior with a 9'1 overhead reach. He's not much of a rebounder either as evidenced by his medicocre college production in that department. So much for his length and athleticism. I can see, perhaps, pinning my hopes on length and athleticism in the face of mediocre to poor big-man type production from a college freshman. But a college senior? I don't get it. But again, I'll have to hope that Flip and his brain-trust on 1st Avenue see things that explain his paltry production and justify giving up a future 1st to get him.

I'll note also that this deal adds $2 million to next year's payroll. That's $2 million less to spend on a potentially consequential veteran three-point shooter, shot-blockeer or rebounder.

The Mo / Troy deal makes sense and I like that we are sending these guys to competitive teams (like Brewer).

This Payne trade though, yuck!

In all seriousness, we just traded a first round pick for a 24-year old big who hasn't seen much NBA time in his rookie year. I've stuck up for Flip a ton up to this point, but this move is a major head-scratcher. Why are we [wolves] always the franchise that makes a silly mistake like this?

Let's all bow our heads and hope that Payne can be a legitimate big off the bench moving forward. Maybe he can form a nice duo with Dieng.