Minnesota Sports Forum

Game 3 was clearly the least fun of the three...I was ready to jump on that plane!

I watched the Laker/Knicks game directly before, and it was an entirely different experience. It was the biggest crowd so far with the lower bowl full and even the upper deck a quarter filled up (I was told this has been unused in prior summer leagues). And you can imagine how boisterous the crowd was with those two teams playing. But after the final whistle the arena emptied out, and I moved down to the second row. It was so quiet in there I felt like I was watching a practice rather than a game. But it was fun to be able to hear everything the players and coaches were shouting.

Some observations about Towns. Please understand that I am reporting what I saw in his first three games, and am not making any conclusions about how he is going to play in the future. I still like the pick and think he has an enormous upside, but he has been overmatched here. And you can see it on his face...he turns to Saunders frequently with his palms turned up in frustration as yet another foul is called on him. Fouling was a problem for him in college and it has continued to be in SL. He has had 22 fouls in 95 minutes, or over 9 on a per 40 basis! And they are often ticky tack fouls...reaching, rather than moving his feet. I'm concerned he is going to have a difficult time staying on the court unless he dramatically changes his defensive approach...another reason why Pek's health is critical to our success this year.

I also have some concerns about his rebounding. The box scores say he had 9 and 10 the past two games (after only 3 in his first), but I have to admit it didn't look like it. I was stunned to see that he had 4 more rebounds than Payne last night, because Payne has looked much stronger on the boards. I think monster pointed out after game 2 that Towns gets a lot of "hustle" rebounds, and I think that is true and also promising. I like his effort in chasing balls down and his willingness to hit the floor for loose balls...shows a lot of heart. But I would like to see him doing more conventional rebounding...using his size to block out and seal off his rebounding zone. It was frustrating to me that he just wasn't very good at blocking out in any of the games I watched. I sense that his rebounding success in college had to do with just being bigger and longer than his opponents, because he is not showing basic rebounding skills. I look for this to be an area the coaching staff really stresses in camp.

His shot selection and shooting percentage was poor also in all three games. He's only shooting 33% in his first three games (0 for 4 on threes)...a ridiculously low percentage for a center. Some of this is on Saunders...often plays were designed to get Karl the ball in isolation 15 feet from the basket, and he didn't seen to know what to do there other than put up a low-percentage fade away. That may work for Wiggins, but it's not what I want my 7 foot center doing. His three point form looked oddly different from what we have seen in workout videos, even though he was wide open on all four threes he attempted. His shot was a Rubio-like set shot rather than the nice, in-rhythm jump shots we saw in his workouts. This tells me that he doesn't feel confident with his three-pointers yet, and appears to be "aiming" rather than "shooting". These are easily correctable flaws, and not unexpected in his early games. And on the positive side, he did show a nice mid-range shooting touch (when he wasn't fading away) and some impressive post moves. I think he has great potential to be a very good scorer...both inside and outside.

Karl's passing has been a pleasant surprise in his first three games. He's had seven assists and could have easily had more if his targets were more skilled. He was double and triple teamed often, and I would say the results were mixed...but on balance more positive than negative. He generally showed a lot of poise and vision in these situations, although as expected, there were some turnovers too. He could turn out to be an excellent distributor if he is doubled and his targets are Wiggins, Martin and LaVine instead of CJ Williams and Ivan Aska.

Sorry that this report is only about Towns, but his performance is by far the most important to the Wolves' success. Here's what I want to see the rest of SL and pre-season:

1) More interest and success in boxing out his man
2) More confidence in his long-range jumpshot, and an emphasis on post play rather than fade aways.
3) Improvement in staying away from fouls.

If he shows significant improvement in these three area, I will see him as ready to start and make significant contributions. Absent a lot of improvement in these areas, though, I would prefer to see him getting backup minutes in the early going. I'm felling guardedly optimistic that we will see a lot of improvement before November.

I think something we need to be careful with, to counter your point about rebounding, is that we do not confuse activity with success. It's a pretty well known cliché, but is certainly the case for Payne thus far, and is similar to guys like Faried. Just because they bounce around super hyper and aggressive does not mean they are actually contributing. Towns does need to improve his strength so that he can go up against these older, stronger guys that are making it difficult on him, and those that have better technique.

Big men often have the hardest adjustment to make when it comes to fouling. If you remember, Pek was a huuuuuuge foul artist his first year in the league, and it wasn't until years 2 and 3 that his numbers came down as he learned to move his feet and the refs learned to give him a little leeway. The other aspect of fouling in Summer league is these referees are practicing and learning too, so the foul count is astronomically higher. Both those things go against Towns. I still expect him to struggle to get minutes certain nights because of foul troubles or inconsistency. Over time we need to see that number drop on a per minute basis throughout the season.

Good breakdown LST.

The fouling situation isn't going to get any easier for Towns, as veteran NBA officials terrorize rookie big men. He will NEVER get the benefit of the doubt until well past the halfway point of his rookie year, if at all next season. It's going to be an issue.

While a Towns-KG-Wiggins-Martin/LaVine-Rubio starting 5 looks pretty good on paper, we have to remember that 2 or 3 of those guys are still higher on the potential meter than the results meter. And KG and Rubio are super good complementary players, not "carry the team on their back" guys.

The bottom-line is this: Anyone that has dreams of this team competing for a playoff spot next year (Tim, I'm looking at you!) is doing just that: Dreaming.

Q12543 wrote:Good breakdown LST.

The fouling situation isn't going to get any easier for Towns, as veteran NBA officials terrorize rookie big men. He will NEVER get the benefit of the doubt until well past the halfway point of his rookie year, if at all next season. It's going to be an issue.

While a Towns-KG-Wiggins-Martin/LaVine-Rubio starting 5 looks pretty good on paper, we have to remember that 2 or 3 of those guys are still higher on the potential meter than the results meter. And KG and Rubio are super good complementary players, not "carry the team on their back" guys.

The bottom-line is this: Anyone that has dreams of this team competing for a playoff spot next year (Tim, I'm looking at you!) is doing just that: Dreaming.

Yep, not in the West. In the East I could easily see it.

CoolBreeze44 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:Good breakdown LST.

The fouling situation isn't going to get any easier for Towns, as veteran NBA officials terrorize rookie big men. He will NEVER get the benefit of the doubt until well past the halfway point of his rookie year, if at all next season. It's going to be an issue.

While a Towns-KG-Wiggins-Martin/LaVine-Rubio starting 5 looks pretty good on paper, we have to remember that 2 or 3 of those guys are still higher on the potential meter than the results meter. And KG and Rubio are super good complementary players, not "carry the team on their back" guys.

The bottom-line is this: Anyone that has dreams of this team competing for a playoff spot next year (Tim, I'm looking at you!) is doing just that: Dreaming.

Yep, not in the West. In the East I could easily see it.

You guys need to look at me too...I'm one of those dreamers. These are the factors that take us to the playoffs, ranked in order of likelihood.

Very likely:
1) Wiggins, LaVine and Payne make the kind of leap NBA players regularly make in their second years, and Shabazz, Dieng and maybe even Bennett show the kind of progress NBA players usually make in their third years. This phenomenon is well documented, and to get big improvement from 5-6 key rotation players adds up to huge improvement in wins.
2) Rubio has a season where he doesn't suffer a season-ending injury, and he continues or improves on the incredible on/off stats he has shown in prior seasons.
3) Towns and Jones give us the kind of modest backup minutes a lottery pick (in this case a #1) and another first rounder usually provide...not game-changers, but at least an improvement over the journeymen they are replacing.

Likely:
1) KG shows us what most of us thought last year, that his "knee injury" was strategic rather than real, and he gives us the kind of leadership and performance he exhibited in five well-played games last year for 60 games this year. I didn't see practice yesterday, but reports were that he was going 100%, and Flip has said he expects him to even play some BTB's this year. He certainly is paying him like he expects it.

2) Bjelica plays more like 28-year-old Euroleague MVP than an NBA rookie, and provides valuable depth off the bench.

3) LaVine's added maturity allows Flip to start him at SG, and Kevin Martin becomes one of the most prolific bench scorers in the league


Less likely:
1) Pekovic's surgery eliminated the pain he has experienced with a bone spur rubbing against his tendon, and he only misses games due to his normal nuisance injuries...calf bruises, etc. Plus, with him and Rubio both healthy, he returns to the 54% shooting he has shown every year except last, and he returns to being a 17 and 9 guy. His health allows Flip to develop Towns at a pace more conducive to the level he is at right now.
2) Although Flip continues to be our coach, he shows that he is not totally pig-headed and listens to his critics who question his disdain for the 3-pointer. He loosens the reins on guys like Wiggins, LaVine. Towns, Payne, Muhammad, Jones, Bjelica, the other new guy we traded for and even AB if he plays, while allowing Martin and Rubio to maintain their 3-point pace. The Wolves end up in the middle of the pack in 3-point attempts with perhaps a lower than average success percentage...the combination of which greatly improves our scoring efficiency.

8 things that can theoretically greatly improve this team. If any 6 of them happen, we are in the playoff hunt.

Tim, when do we need to tee up the playoffs bandwagon thread to see who's with us?

longstrangetrip wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:Good breakdown LST.

The fouling situation isn't going to get any easier for Towns, as veteran NBA officials terrorize rookie big men. He will NEVER get the benefit of the doubt until well past the halfway point of his rookie year, if at all next season. It's going to be an issue.

While a Towns-KG-Wiggins-Martin/LaVine-Rubio starting 5 looks pretty good on paper, we have to remember that 2 or 3 of those guys are still higher on the potential meter than the results meter. And KG and Rubio are super good complementary players, not "carry the team on their back" guys.

The bottom-line is this: Anyone that has dreams of this team competing for a playoff spot next year (Tim, I'm looking at you!) is doing just that: Dreaming.

Yep, not in the West. In the East I could easily see it.

You guys need to look at me too...I'm one of those dreamers. These are the factors that take us to the playoffs, ranked in order of likelihood.

Very likely:
1) Wiggins, LaVine and Payne make the kind of leap NBA players regularly make in their second years, and Shabazz, Dieng and maybe even Bennett show the kind of progress NBA players usually make in their third years. This phenomenon is well documented, and to get big improvement from 5-6 key rotation players adds up to huge improvement in wins.
2) Rubio has a season where he doesn't suffer a season-ending injury, and he continues or improves on the incredible on/off stats he has shown in prior seasons.
3) Towns and Jones give us the kind of modest backup minutes a lottery pick (in this case a #1) and another first rounder usually provide...not game-changers, but at least an improvement over the journeymen they are replacing.

Likely:
1) KG shows us what most of us thought last year, that his "knee injury" was strategic rather than real, and he gives us the kind of leadership and performance he exhibited in five well-played games last year for 60 games this year. I didn't see practice yesterday, but reports were that he was going 100%, and Flip has said he expects him to even play some BTB's this year. He certainly is paying him like he expects it.

2) Bjelica plays more like 28-year-old Euroleague MVP than an NBA rookie, and provides valuable depth off the bench.

3) LaVine's added maturity allows Flip to start him at SG, and Kevin Martin becomes one of the most prolific bench scorers in the league


Less likely:
1) Pekovic's surgery eliminated the pain he has experienced with a bone spur rubbing against his tendon, and he only misses games due to his normal nuisance injuries...calf bruises, etc. Plus, with him and Rubio both healthy, he returns to the 54% shooting he has shown every year except last, and he returns to being a 17 and 9 guy. His health allows Flip to develop Towns at a pace more conducive to the level he is at right now.
2) Although Flip continues to be our coach, he shows that he is not totally pig-headed and listens to his critics who question his disdain for the 3-pointer. He loosens the reins on guys like Wiggins, LaVine. Towns, Payne, Muhammad, Jones, Bjelica, the other new guy we traded for and even AB if he plays, while allowing Martin and Rubio to maintain their 3-point pace. The Wolves end up in the middle of the pack in 3-point attempts with perhaps a lower than average success percentage...the combination of which greatly improves our scoring efficiency.

8 things that can theoretically greatly improve this team. If any 6 of them happen, we are in the playoff hunt.

Tim, when do we need to tee up the playoffs bandwagon thread to see who's with us?

The jump comes in year 3 not 2. You're off by 1 year. Lavine and Wiggins will get better, but as you can see from Lavine's summer league play it's not a big jump yet. It's continued building on his rookie season with still some inconsistencies and habits that need to be worked out. Year three is when guys "are who we think they are". So this year Bazz and Dieng will solidify who they are as NBA players most likely and Wiggins and Lavine will still show they have areas they can continue to improve. Wiggins is special though so he may break through this year, but the typical jump is year three. Sophomore year is usually a slumping year (think Dieng last year) not a jumping year.

I wouldn't dismiss the playoffs so quickly. The bucks over under prediction last year was maybe 25? I think we'll.compete for the last spot.

KG will feel right at home again in the 8 hole.

khans2k5 wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:Good breakdown LST.

The fouling situation isn't going to get any easier for Towns, as veteran NBA officials terrorize rookie big men. He will NEVER get the benefit of the doubt until well past the halfway point of his rookie year, if at all next season. It's going to be an issue.

While a Towns-KG-Wiggins-Martin/LaVine-Rubio starting 5 looks pretty good on paper, we have to remember that 2 or 3 of those guys are still higher on the potential meter than the results meter. And KG and Rubio are super good complementary players, not "carry the team on their back" guys.

The bottom-line is this: Anyone that has dreams of this team competing for a playoff spot next year (Tim, I'm looking at you!) is doing just that: Dreaming.

Yep, not in the West. In the East I could easily see it.

You guys need to look at me too...I'm one of those dreamers. These are the factors that take us to the playoffs, ranked in order of likelihood.

Very likely:
1) Wiggins, LaVine and Payne make the kind of leap NBA players regularly make in their second years, and Shabazz, Dieng and maybe even Bennett show the kind of progress NBA players usually make in their third years. This phenomenon is well documented, and to get big improvement from 5-6 key rotation players adds up to huge improvement in wins.
2) Rubio has a season where he doesn't suffer a season-ending injury, and he continues or improves on the incredible on/off stats he has shown in prior seasons.
3) Towns and Jones give us the kind of modest backup minutes a lottery pick (in this case a #1) and another first rounder usually provide...not game-changers, but at least an improvement over the journeymen they are replacing.

Likely:
1) KG shows us what most of us thought last year, that his "knee injury" was strategic rather than real, and he gives us the kind of leadership and performance he exhibited in five well-played games last year for 60 games this year. I didn't see practice yesterday, but reports were that he was going 100%, and Flip has said he expects him to even play some BTB's this year. He certainly is paying him like he expects it.

2) Bjelica plays more like 28-year-old Euroleague MVP than an NBA rookie, and provides valuable depth off the bench.

3) LaVine's added maturity allows Flip to start him at SG, and Kevin Martin becomes one of the most prolific bench scorers in the league


Less likely:
1) Pekovic's surgery eliminated the pain he has experienced with a bone spur rubbing against his tendon, and he only misses games due to his normal nuisance injuries...calf bruises, etc. Plus, with him and Rubio both healthy, he returns to the 54% shooting he has shown every year except last, and he returns to being a 17 and 9 guy. His health allows Flip to develop Towns at a pace more conducive to the level he is at right now.
2) Although Flip continues to be our coach, he shows that he is not totally pig-headed and listens to his critics who question his disdain for the 3-pointer. He loosens the reins on guys like Wiggins, LaVine. Towns, Payne, Muhammad, Jones, Bjelica, the other new guy we traded for and even AB if he plays, while allowing Martin and Rubio to maintain their 3-point pace. The Wolves end up in the middle of the pack in 3-point attempts with perhaps a lower than average success percentage...the combination of which greatly improves our scoring efficiency.

8 things that can theoretically greatly improve this team. If any 6 of them happen, we are in the playoff hunt.

Tim, when do we need to tee up the playoffs bandwagon thread to see who's with us?

The jump comes in year 3 not 2. You're off by 1 year. Lavine and Wiggins will get better, but as you can see from Lavine's summer league play it's not a big jump yet. It's continued building on his rookie season with still some inconsistencies and habits that need to be worked out. Year three is when guys "are who we think they are". So this year Bazz and Dieng will solidify who they are as NBA players most likely and Wiggins and Lavine will still show they have areas they can continue to improve. Wiggins is special though so he may break through this year, but the typical jump is year three. Sophomore year is usually a slumping year (think Dieng last year) not a jumping year.

Do you have data on that, khans? I don't, but it seems to me that a lot of guys look totally different in year 2 than year 1, and then take another big step forward in year 3. I don't disagree that Wiggins, LaVine and Payne will still have things they will need to work out this year, but I still maintain that history tells us they
will look much more comfortable on the court this year...and have the results to show it. And I disagree with you on LaVine, as he was terrific Friday night and looked much improved before he cut his hand. Both he and Payne showed a comfort and leadership level that we seldom saw last year.

longstrangetrip wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:Good breakdown LST.

The fouling situation isn't going to get any easier for Towns, as veteran NBA officials terrorize rookie big men. He will NEVER get the benefit of the doubt until well past the halfway point of his rookie year, if at all next season. It's going to be an issue.

While a Towns-KG-Wiggins-Martin/LaVine-Rubio starting 5 looks pretty good on paper, we have to remember that 2 or 3 of those guys are still higher on the potential meter than the results meter. And KG and Rubio are super good complementary players, not "carry the team on their back" guys.

The bottom-line is this: Anyone that has dreams of this team competing for a playoff spot next year (Tim, I'm looking at you!) is doing just that: Dreaming.

Yep, not in the West. In the East I could easily see it.

You guys need to look at me too...I'm one of those dreamers. These are the factors that take us to the playoffs, ranked in order of likelihood.

Very likely:
1) Wiggins, LaVine and Payne make the kind of leap NBA players regularly make in their second years, and Shabazz, Dieng and maybe even Bennett show the kind of progress NBA players usually make in their third years. This phenomenon is well documented, and to get big improvement from 5-6 key rotation players adds up to huge improvement in wins.
2) Rubio has a season where he doesn't suffer a season-ending injury, and he continues or improves on the incredible on/off stats he has shown in prior seasons.
3) Towns and Jones give us the kind of modest backup minutes a lottery pick (in this case a #1) and another first rounder usually provide...not game-changers, but at least an improvement over the journeymen they are replacing.

Likely:
1) KG shows us what most of us thought last year, that his "knee injury" was strategic rather than real, and he gives us the kind of leadership and performance he exhibited in five well-played games last year for 60 games this year. I didn't see practice yesterday, but reports were that he was going 100%, and Flip has said he expects him to even play some BTB's this year. He certainly is paying him like he expects it.

2) Bjelica plays more like 28-year-old Euroleague MVP than an NBA rookie, and provides valuable depth off the bench.

3) LaVine's added maturity allows Flip to start him at SG, and Kevin Martin becomes one of the most prolific bench scorers in the league


Less likely:
1) Pekovic's surgery eliminated the pain he has experienced with a bone spur rubbing against his tendon, and he only misses games due to his normal nuisance injuries...calf bruises, etc. Plus, with him and Rubio both healthy, he returns to the 54% shooting he has shown every year except last, and he returns to being a 17 and 9 guy. His health allows Flip to develop Towns at a pace more conducive to the level he is at right now.
2) Although Flip continues to be our coach, he shows that he is not totally pig-headed and listens to his critics who question his disdain for the 3-pointer. He loosens the reins on guys like Wiggins, LaVine. Towns, Payne, Muhammad, Jones, Bjelica, the other new guy we traded for and even AB if he plays, while allowing Martin and Rubio to maintain their 3-point pace. The Wolves end up in the middle of the pack in 3-point attempts with perhaps a lower than average success percentage...the combination of which greatly improves our scoring efficiency.

8 things that can theoretically greatly improve this team. If any 6 of them happen, we are in the playoff hunt.

Tim, when do we need to tee up the playoffs bandwagon thread to see who's with us?

The jump comes in year 3 not 2. You're off by 1 year. Lavine and Wiggins will get better, but as you can see from Lavine's summer league play it's not a big jump yet. It's continued building on his rookie season with still some inconsistencies and habits that need to be worked out. Year three is when guys "are who we think they are". So this year Bazz and Dieng will solidify who they are as NBA players most likely and Wiggins and Lavine will still show they have areas they can continue to improve. Wiggins is special though so he may break through this year, but the typical jump is year three. Sophomore year is usually a slumping year (think Dieng last year) not a jumping year.

Do you have data on that, khans? I don't, but it seems to me that a lot of guys look totally different in year 2 than year 1, and then take another big step forward in year 3. I don't disagree that Wiggins, LaVine and Payne will still have things they will need to work out this year, but I still maintain that history tells us they
will look much more comfortable on the court this year...and have the results to show it. And I disagree with you on LaVine, as he was terrific Friday night and looked much improved before he cut his hand. Both he and Payne showed a comfort and leadership level that we seldom saw last year.

Durant went from 20 PPG's to 25 in year two to 30 in year 3. AD became a top 3 player last year in his third year. Honestly it comes down to what you evaluate as the leap. Lots of players showed good improvement from year 1 to year 2, but I would argue their stardom was on full display in year 3 (KD, AD, Kobe among others). That's what I consider the real leap. Wiggins can get better, but I don't see a jump in his numbers and we will probably see some drop because he's no longer the only guy on the team. He's back to playing with guys like Martin, Pek, etc.

I personally hope they make KAT earn the starting role if he is out working and performing better than the rest of the bigs then I'm fine with him starting but just because he went #1 should not be a reason for him starting day one.

J. Cunningham is a FA? I think he is but would you rather have him or Lo Brow?