Minnesota Sports Forum

It's interesting to compare Taj and Gorgui as players and the value of their contracts. As players, I view them as roughly equal (based only on my very anecdotal judgement)

Gorgui Dieng $14.1mill, $15.1mill, $16.2mill, $17.3mill.

Taj Gibson $13.7mill, $14.3mill.

Now clearly they're different ages and the contracts were signed in different offseasons. But many of us thought Gorgui's deal was a good one last year, but Taj's was poor value this year. In this context, I think Taj's deal looks pretty solid.

Like the Butler move and Taj signing. Hate the Rubio trade. Grade B.

Phenom's_Revenge wrote:He traded Rubio who was holding this team back. Playoffs is the minimum now.

Rubio was not the problem. Thibs made a mistake by getting rid of him. The Butler move was awesome and I like the Taj move but moving Rubio wasn't a good move. For the money Ricky was making and the effort he gave every night i'll take him over Teague any day. Defense is better, passing is better, size is better, effort is higher....shooting is coming around.

SameOldDrew wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

sjm34 wrote:I'll give Thibs a C for last season, and unlike others I am disappointed with the Dieng contract. I think it was too much, but also there was no reason to sign a mediocre player to a four year extension with anther year left on his former deal. Even though many have argued that it was a fair price, I think we can all see that is was a mistake now. Gorgui is left unguarded for the most part on offense, and we had to sign Taj for 14 mil for his defense.

I'll give him a B for this season as I think getting Butler was something he couldn't pass up. I think it was necessary to guarantee we make the playoffs. The rubio deal as well as signing Crawford have me stumped. I was pretty sure our defense was the weak point of our team last season. I am also concerned with how quickly this team has moved away from the youth movement.

Is Thibs a great defensive coach, or has he just had great players? Was Boston a great defensive team before KG got there? Why is he so attached to Gorgui when G is a liability at one of the staples of Thibs defensive strategy (icing the PnR).

Good point bringing up Dieng's deal with your grade. At the time based on last year's market Dieng's deal looked like a good value contract. You are right that now they likely should have waited till this year. Olynyk just got 4 years 52 million and I would say he and Dieng are somewhere around the same tier of players. People will value them differently. Of course Olynyk ended up being unrestricted so that may have got him more money. It will be interesting to see what J Green ends up getting from Memphis, what Denver pays Plumblee and what Dallas gives Noel to see more of what this year's market really is for those types of players. I don't think Dieng's contract is a good value anymore but it's probably moveable but time will tell.

I think Gorgui's a limited player (limited mostly by being so slow), but I think he's better than these posts imply. He's a better defender than Towns and doesn't make many mistakes offensively. He does a bit of everything, scores, rebounds, gets blocks and steals. I wish he took more perimeter shots (I still think corner 3s could be his thing--he shoots a really good percentage there, but hasn't taken that many, which is on Thibs), but he's one of the better midrange shooters in the game (seriously, look it up) and a very good FT shooter, which is great from a big man. Advanced stat guys like fivethirtyeight.com have ranked him as a "good starter" level player, way above LaVine and Wiggins. The market dried up this year making his contract look a little pricey if you assume he had been an RFA this year, but you can't fault Thibs for not knowing how bad the market would be for players this year, and it's still a fair deal for a big you can count on for a productive 30-35 minutes of basketball.

I spent some time typing in names in the CARMELO projections and...it's entertaining. Based on what I have gathered we should absolutely not sign Lip's guy afflalo as he has the worse negative value contract of anyone I looked up even worse than Crawford and Terry! Thibs knows what he is doing! :) Hopefully another WC team signs him and he will torpedo their whole team! Lol

They predicted Payne as being a slightly positive contract (defensive specialist) going forward. It's an interesting thing to plug in stuff and I am sure they have pegged some up and comers but I'm not sure how much I take from it although I'm not dismissing it by any means. It was a fun time I recommend it. Lol

maelstrom11 wrote:

Phenom's_Revenge wrote:He traded Rubio who was holding this team back. Playoffs is the minimum now.

Rubio was not the problem. Thibs made a mistake by getting rid of him. The Butler move was awesome and I like the Taj move but moving Rubio wasn't a good move. For the money Ricky was making and the effort he gave every night i'll take him over Teague any day. Defense is better, passing is better, size is better, effort is higher....shooting is coming around.

Maelstrom, I notice you didn't address the Crawford pickup in your B grade...does that move your grade up or down? Here's how I analyze the 4 deals:

Butler: A+. A home run all around. Brought us a top 10 player with a great attitude and leadershp qualities, allowed Thibs to avoid the salary discussion for Zach later this year (although it would have been a terrific talker here!), jettisoned Dunn who will never be an NBA PG offensively, and allowed Thibs to avoid Markannen. What a deal!

Teague/Rubio: If I allow emotion to get involved I give this one an F because I enjoy Ricky as a player so much. But I guess I can objectively upgrade it to D. You are correct that Ricky is better in all the areas you mentioned, and even shot almost identically to Teague the last half of last year after Thibs took the shackles off. I also loved Ricky's deal, and was hopeful he might sign a "home town discount" deal in 2019-20 to keep the band together, as opposed to Teague's 3-year deal that will force either him or Wig out of town before that season. The only reason the deal is not an F is I think we tend to undervalue Teague's defense here. While not nearly as disruptive as Ricky, he is far superior in fighting through screens. He also is a much better penetrator and finisher. I'm putting my hopes for next year on these two attributes, but I also sense Ricky's stats this year will dwarf Teague's.

Gibson: D. I like Taj, but he is aging (not over the hill, but clearly past the typical NBA prime) and I think the overpayment cost Thibs the chance at some free agents that could have helped us much more. The millions we are paying him are too much for a guy that I don't see as a starter on most NBA teams. (I have come around to the belief that he may start here, setting up a KAT/G Taj/Belly depth chart at the 4 and 5).

Crawford: D. Another guy I like personally a lot, but a very poor option compared to other shooters who wer out there. Kevin Martin was maligned here, and I see Crawford as a poor man's Martin...able to create shots at an elite level and unwilling and unable to play any defense ( I would argue that KM was the better defender). In terms of shooting, Crawford is more willing to take the clutch shot than Martin, but his career shooting percentage is much worse than Kevin's. And frankly, with KAT, Wig, Butler and Teague, do we really want Crawford taking the final shot with the game on the line? I think not.

So my opinion of Thibs as a PBO has plummeted since last summer. That proves I'm capable of changing my mind...let's hope my opinion of him as a coach goes in the other direction!

I am fairly happy with our direction this offseason.

I like Taj a whole lot more than many/most on this board. Why? Because I am tired of getting run over defensively game after game after game after game....you get the picture. He will certainly provide some toughness on the floor, and I think will help defensively much like Garnett did while he was here a couple years ago. While I didn't love Garnett here at the end due to his inability to stay healthy and play meaningful minutes, I did like the attitude he brought on the defensive side of the ball. I think Taj brings toughness and smarts.

Many lament not getting super awesome guys like CJ Miles, etc. While I like Miles just fine, he isn't a game changer either way. There will be others available like him.

monsterpile wrote:

SameOldDrew wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

sjm34 wrote:I'll give Thibs a C for last season, and unlike others I am disappointed with the Dieng contract. I think it was too much, but also there was no reason to sign a mediocre player to a four year extension with anther year left on his former deal. Even though many have argued that it was a fair price, I think we can all see that is was a mistake now. Gorgui is left unguarded for the most part on offense, and we had to sign Taj for 14 mil for his defense.

I'll give him a B for this season as I think getting Butler was something he couldn't pass up. I think it was necessary to guarantee we make the playoffs. The rubio deal as well as signing Crawford have me stumped. I was pretty sure our defense was the weak point of our team last season. I am also concerned with how quickly this team has moved away from the youth movement.

Is Thibs a great defensive coach, or has he just had great players? Was Boston a great defensive team before KG got there? Why is he so attached to Gorgui when G is a liability at one of the staples of Thibs defensive strategy (icing the PnR).

Good point bringing up Dieng's deal with your grade. At the time based on last year's market Dieng's deal looked like a good value contract. You are right that now they likely should have waited till this year. Olynyk just got 4 years 52 million and I would say he and Dieng are somewhere around the same tier of players. People will value them differently. Of course Olynyk ended up being unrestricted so that may have got him more money. It will be interesting to see what J Green ends up getting from Memphis, what Denver pays Plumblee and what Dallas gives Noel to see more of what this year's market really is for those types of players. I don't think Dieng's contract is a good value anymore but it's probably moveable but time will tell.

I think Gorgui's a limited player (limited mostly by being so slow), but I think he's better than these posts imply. He's a better defender than Towns and doesn't make many mistakes offensively. He does a bit of everything, scores, rebounds, gets blocks and steals. I wish he took more perimeter shots (I still think corner 3s could be his thing--he shoots a really good percentage there, but hasn't taken that many, which is on Thibs), but he's one of the better midrange shooters in the game (seriously, look it up) and a very good FT shooter, which is great from a big man. Advanced stat guys like fivethirtyeight.com have ranked him as a "good starter" level player, way above LaVine and Wiggins. The market dried up this year making his contract look a little pricey if you assume he had been an RFA this year, but you can't fault Thibs for not knowing how bad the market would be for players this year, and it's still a fair deal for a big you can count on for a productive 30-35 minutes of basketball.

I spent some time typing in names in the CARMELO projections and...it's entertaining. Based on what I have gathered we should absolutely not sign Lip's guy afflalo as he has the worse negative value contract of anyone I looked up even worse than Crawford and Terry! Thibs knows what he is doing! :) Hopefully another WC team signs him and he will torpedo their whole team! Lol

They predicted Payne as being a slightly positive contract (defensive specialist) going forward. It's an interesting thing to plug in stuff and I am sure they have pegged some up and comers but I'm not sure how much I take from it although I'm not dismissing it by any means. It was a fun time I recommend it. Lol

Monster - Couldn't help yourself, could you? :)

Actually, before your post I had never head of the CARMELO projections. So I took a look. Regarding Afflalo, he's no worse than Jamaal Crawford and appears to be a better value at the vet minimum. Both are pretty bad. Afflalo is categorized as a "scrub" and has win over replacement (WOR) values of -1.3 and -0.4 the next two seasons, while Crawford is categorized as "way over the hill" with WOR values of -1.0 and -0.4 the next two seasons. Afflalo, however, has a much higher 5-year market value than Crawford ($17.6M v. 8.6M). So while neither is a plus based on this metric, Afflalo is a better value than Crawford at the vet minimum when considering market value.

Thabo would be a much better signing than Afflalo or Crawford based on this metric. Thabo is categorized as a "rotation player" and has WOR values of 1.3, 0.7 and 0.3. Not great, but not bad for a vet minimum backup wing. His 5-yr. market value also indicates he's a much better value than Crawford.

The CARMELO projections offer strong support for the Butler deal. Butler gets categorized as an all-star with a $215M 5-yr. market value and WOR values of 9.7, 8.3 and 7.7. In contrast, LaVine is categorized as a "project" with a $28.7M 5-yr. market value and WOR values of 0.5, 0.8 and 1.4 the next three years. Dunn's values are no better.

But we had better hope these CARMELO projections aren't reliable when it comes to Thibs' offseason moves following the Butler deal. Taj is categorized as a rotation player with a $9.2M 5-yr. market value. That doesn't support the 2-year $28 million contract we gave him. Moreover, is WOR values the next two seasons are 0.9 and 0.4. Contrast that with Patrick Patterson, who signed a much cheaper contract. Patterson is categorized by the model as a "key role player" with a 5-yr. market value of $56.7M and WOR values the next 3 years of 3.1, 2.7 and 2.0. Jeff Teague comes off pretty well in the CARMELO model. He's categorized as an "average starter" with a 5-yr. market value of $58.9M and WOR values the next 3 years of 3.5, 3.0 and 1.9. Unfortunately for the Wolves, Rubio comes off much better in the model. He's categorized as a "borderline all-star." Yes, I didn't make that up. His 5-yr. market value is projected at $141.1M with WOR values the next 3 years of 5.8, 5.6 and 4.9.

As for our two young stars, not surprisingly, Towns looks really good in the CARMELO model. He's categorized as "MVP candidate" with a 5-yr. market value of 276.4M and WOR values the next 4 years of 9.6, 9.2, 9.4 and 9.5. Wiggins doesn't fair nearly as well as Town in the model, but he does OK. He's categorized as an "up-and-comer" with a 5-yr. market value of $78.9M and WOR values of 2.3, 2.5 and 3.1 the next three years.

Interestingly, John Collins and Harry Giles fair better than Justin Patton under the model as well.

So there you have it. Assume you owned the Timberwolves and Thibs came to you for approval of all his transactions this summer. If you simply applied the CARMELO market value and WOR analysis and nothing more, you'd approve the Butler deal, reject the Rubio deal, direct him to sign Patterson at $7 million per year rather than Taj at $28 million over the next two years, and reject the Crawford signing, directing him instead to sign Thabo. And you'd also tell him to draft John Collins instead of Justin Patton. You'd have around $12 million in extra cap space by keeping Rubio and signing Patterson instead of Taj. I haven't checked the CARMELO metric for CJ Miles, but you'd have the money to sign him with plenty left over to sign someone else like an Ilyasova, Teodosic or someone else. Again, I'm just going by the CARMELO model having no idea how accurate or nuanced it is.

Continuing with the CARMELO theme started by Monster. The notable remaining FAs who might sign for as little as the vet minimum rank as follows under the CARMELO projections over the next two years:

1. Ilyasova: "Rotation Player," $18.9M 5-yr market value, WOR values of 1.5 and 1.0 the next 2 yrs.

2. Thabo: "Rotation Player," $14.3M market value, WOR values of 1.3 and 0.7...

3. Tony Allen: "Scrappy Vet", $14.2M market value, WOR values of 1.6 and 0.6...

4. Brandon Jennings: "Off Specialist", $10.9M market value, WOR values of 0.8 and 0.5...

5. Deron Williams: "Off specialist," $7.5M market value, WOR values of 0.7 and 0.4...

6. Luc MM: "Def Specialist", $7.0M market value, WOR values of 0.7 and 0.4...

7. Anthony Tolliver: "Scrub", $2.9M market value, WOR values of 0.4 and 0.1

The top 3 don't surprise me. I would have ranked them that way based on my own more traditional assessment of stats and the eye test. Hard to believe that Ilyasova would be available at the vet minimum, but if he is Thibs should snatch him up ASAP. Otherwise, Thabo seems like the no-braning pick at the vet minimum. I'd take him over Tony Allen because he's more of a 2-way player, younger and more durable than Tony. I'd be fine signing all three of these guys to vet minimum deals, but I don't see that happening. If we sign Thabo and can't afford Ilyasova, I'd fill the other wing vacancy with a young up-and-comer like Boston's James Young or a Summer League guy.

I've been touting Aaron Brooks to fill our final PG vacancy based largely on his 3-point shooting prowess. But factoring in the CARMELO projections, I'd be inclined to go with Brandon Jennings. He can handle the ball and score and he's still only 28 years old. Otherwise, Deron Williams wouldn't be a bad signing.

As if anyone needed a reminder to stay away from Randy Foye, his CARMELO projection is one of the worst in the data base. He's listed as a scrub with WOR all negative WOR values ranging from -0.7 to -0.3 over the next two years. Ramon Sessions isn't much better with WOR values of -0/4 and -0.2.

lipoli390 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

SameOldDrew wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

sjm34 wrote:I'll give Thibs a C for last season, and unlike others I am disappointed with the Dieng contract. I think it was too much, but also there was no reason to sign a mediocre player to a four year extension with anther year left on his former deal. Even though many have argued that it was a fair price, I think we can all see that is was a mistake now. Gorgui is left unguarded for the most part on offense, and we had to sign Taj for 14 mil for his defense.

I'll give him a B for this season as I think getting Butler was something he couldn't pass up. I think it was necessary to guarantee we make the playoffs. The rubio deal as well as signing Crawford have me stumped. I was pretty sure our defense was the weak point of our team last season. I am also concerned with how quickly this team has moved away from the youth movement.

Is Thibs a great defensive coach, or has he just had great players? Was Boston a great defensive team before KG got there? Why is he so attached to Gorgui when G is a liability at one of the staples of Thibs defensive strategy (icing the PnR).

Good point bringing up Dieng's deal with your grade. At the time based on last year's market Dieng's deal looked like a good value contract. You are right that now they likely should have waited till this year. Olynyk just got 4 years 52 million and I would say he and Dieng are somewhere around the same tier of players. People will value them differently. Of course Olynyk ended up being unrestricted so that may have got him more money. It will be interesting to see what J Green ends up getting from Memphis, what Denver pays Plumblee and what Dallas gives Noel to see more of what this year's market really is for those types of players. I don't think Dieng's contract is a good value anymore but it's probably moveable but time will tell.

I think Gorgui's a limited player (limited mostly by being so slow), but I think he's better than these posts imply. He's a better defender than Towns and doesn't make many mistakes offensively. He does a bit of everything, scores, rebounds, gets blocks and steals. I wish he took more perimeter shots (I still think corner 3s could be his thing--he shoots a really good percentage there, but hasn't taken that many, which is on Thibs), but he's one of the better midrange shooters in the game (seriously, look it up) and a very good FT shooter, which is great from a big man. Advanced stat guys like fivethirtyeight.com have ranked him as a "good starter" level player, way above LaVine and Wiggins. The market dried up this year making his contract look a little pricey if you assume he had been an RFA this year, but you can't fault Thibs for not knowing how bad the market would be for players this year, and it's still a fair deal for a big you can count on for a productive 30-35 minutes of basketball.

I spent some time typing in names in the CARMELO projections and...it's entertaining. Based on what I have gathered we should absolutely not sign Lip's guy afflalo as he has the worse negative value contract of anyone I looked up even worse than Crawford and Terry! Thibs knows what he is doing! :) Hopefully another WC team signs him and he will torpedo their whole team! Lol

They predicted Payne as being a slightly positive contract (defensive specialist) going forward. It's an interesting thing to plug in stuff and I am sure they have pegged some up and comers but I'm not sure how much I take from it although I'm not dismissing it by any means. It was a fun time I recommend it. Lol

Monster - Couldn't help yourself, could you? :)

Actually, before your post I had never head of the CARMELO projections. So I took a look. Regarding Afflalo, he's no worse than Jamaal Crawford and appears to be a better value at the vet minimum. Both are pretty bad. Afflalo is categorized as a "scrub" and has win over replacement (WOR) values of -1.3 and -0.4 the next two seasons, while Crawford is categorized as "way over the hill" with WOR values of -1.0 and -0.4 the next two seasons. Afflalo, however, has a much higher 5-year market value than Crawford ($17.6M v. 8.6M). So while neither is a plus based on this metric, Afflalo is a better value than Crawford at the vet minimum when considering market value.

Thabo would be a much better signing than Afflalo or Crawford based on this metric. Thabo is categorized as a "rotation player" and has WOR values of 1.3, 0.7 and 0.3. Not great, but not bad for a vet minimum backup wing. His 5-yr. market value also indicates he's a much better value than Crawford.

The CARMELO projections offer strong support for the Butler deal. Butler gets categorized as an all-star with a $215M 5-yr. market value and WOR values of 9.7, 8.3 and 7.7. In contrast, LaVine is categorized as a "project" with a $28.7M 5-yr. market value and WOR values of 0.5, 0.8 and 1.4 the next three years. Dunn's values are no better.

But we had better hope these CARMELO projections aren't reliable when it comes to Thibs' offseason moves following the Butler deal. Taj is categorized as a rotation player with a $9.2M 5-yr. market value. That doesn't support the 2-year $28 million contract we gave him. Moreover, is WOR values the next two seasons are 0.9 and 0.4. Contrast that with Patrick Patterson, who signed a much cheaper contract. Patterson is categorized by the model as a "key role player" with a 5-yr. market value of $56.7M and WOR values the next 3 years of 3.1, 2.7 and 2.0. Jeff Teague comes off pretty well in the CARMELO model. He's categorized as an "average starter" with a 5-yr. market value of $58.9M and WOR values the next 3 years of 3.5, 3.0 and 1.9. Unfortunately for the Wolves, Rubio comes off much better in the model. He's categorized as a "borderline all-star." Yes, I didn't make that up. His 5-yr. market value is projected at $141.1M with WOR values the next 3 years of 5.8, 5.6 and 4.9.

As for our two young stars, not surprisingly, Towns looks really good in the CARMELO model. He's categorized as "MVP candidate" with a 5-yr. market value of 276.4M and WOR values the next 4 years of 9.6, 9.2, 9.4 and 9.5. Wiggins doesn't fair nearly as well as Town in the model, but he does OK. He's categorized as an "up-and-comer" with a 5-yr. market value of $78.9M and WOR values of 2.3, 2.5 and 3.1 the next three years.

Interestingly, John Collins and Harry Giles fair better than Justin Patton under the model as well.

So there you have it. Assume you owned the Timberwolves and Thibs came to you for approval of all his transactions this summer. If you simply applied the CARMELO market value and WOR analysis and nothing more, you'd approve the Butler deal, reject the Rubio deal, direct him to sign Patterson at $7 million per year rather than Taj at $28 million over the next two years, and reject the Crawford signing, directing him instead to sign Thabo. And you'd also tell him to draft John Collins instead of Justin Patton. You'd have around $12 million in extra cap space by keeping Rubio and signing Patterson instead of Taj. I haven't checked the CARMELO metric for CJ Miles, but you'd have the money to sign him with plenty left over to sign someone else like an Ilyasova, Teodosic or someone else. Again, I'm just going by the CARMELO model having no idea how accurate or nuanced it is.

Lip I made this same mistake at first and I was stumped because the numbers didn't add up somehow. The values you said for Affalo and Crawford are negative values. Afflalo is a negative 17 million over he next 5 years! Lol lol :)

I'll tell you a couple factors about how they come up with these projections. I don't know how much various data point matter but I think these are worthwhile ones to mention to give some context. This was the first time I have actually looked up individual players but I have read about it before and heard it referred to on a few podcasts. I'm not expert on it but I think these points you will find useful.

1. Age is a factor. The younger the player the more potential they have and obviously the mess they drop off.

2. How high these guys are rated before they are drafted like top 100 recruiting etc. A guy like Patton who was basically an unknown guy is going to have a lower rating so would John Collins.

3. How high they are drafted is a factor. That one you can see on the charts.

Now these things make sense to do because statistically a lot of them favor favor a more positive those outcome. I think we would all agree they can also be pretty flawed as well based on some of these factors.

You don't have to convince me that Thabo (actually rated higher than Miles which makes sense) is a better player than Crawford. The question we don't know is what various guys are demanding in money and what type of place they want to go. My guy Henderson is only a little less terrible than afflalo and Rush is less bad than both at -5.8 over 5 years. Lol Bazz despite being young and all that stuff is rated -11. Ouch. Dieng is rated as a good starter and a 5 year 104 million value. These projections like Tyus better than any of the PGs left on the market I plugged in Rose had a negative value. Anyway it's fun stuff to look at and there probably can be some stuff gleaned from it. I wouldn't take it super seriously I think it probably is something good to look at if you want to see se interesting ways to look at a stastitical value to see if there is something you haven't seen which is pretty helpful. It's a fun for conversation and fun to plug in names and sometimes flat out laugh at their rating. :)

Edit:

For a chuckle look up Javelle McGee and look at the category they have for him.

monsterpile wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

SameOldDrew wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

sjm34 wrote:I'll give Thibs a C for last season, and unlike others I am disappointed with the Dieng contract. I think it was too much, but also there was no reason to sign a mediocre player to a four year extension with anther year left on his former deal. Even though many have argued that it was a fair price, I think we can all see that is was a mistake now. Gorgui is left unguarded for the most part on offense, and we had to sign Taj for 14 mil for his defense.

I'll give him a B for this season as I think getting Butler was something he couldn't pass up. I think it was necessary to guarantee we make the playoffs. The rubio deal as well as signing Crawford have me stumped. I was pretty sure our defense was the weak point of our team last season. I am also concerned with how quickly this team has moved away from the youth movement.

Is Thibs a great defensive coach, or has he just had great players? Was Boston a great defensive team before KG got there? Why is he so attached to Gorgui when G is a liability at one of the staples of Thibs defensive strategy (icing the PnR).

Good point bringing up Dieng's deal with your grade. At the time based on last year's market Dieng's deal looked like a good value contract. You are right that now they likely should have waited till this year. Olynyk just got 4 years 52 million and I would say he and Dieng are somewhere around the same tier of players. People will value them differently. Of course Olynyk ended up being unrestricted so that may have got him more money. It will be interesting to see what J Green ends up getting from Memphis, what Denver pays Plumblee and what Dallas gives Noel to see more of what this year's market really is for those types of players. I don't think Dieng's contract is a good value anymore but it's probably moveable but time will tell.

I think Gorgui's a limited player (limited mostly by being so slow), but I think he's better than these posts imply. He's a better defender than Towns and doesn't make many mistakes offensively. He does a bit of everything, scores, rebounds, gets blocks and steals. I wish he took more perimeter shots (I still think corner 3s could be his thing--he shoots a really good percentage there, but hasn't taken that many, which is on Thibs), but he's one of the better midrange shooters in the game (seriously, look it up) and a very good FT shooter, which is great from a big man. Advanced stat guys like fivethirtyeight.com have ranked him as a "good starter" level player, way above LaVine and Wiggins. The market dried up this year making his contract look a little pricey if you assume he had been an RFA this year, but you can't fault Thibs for not knowing how bad the market would be for players this year, and it's still a fair deal for a big you can count on for a productive 30-35 minutes of basketball.

I spent some time typing in names in the CARMELO projections and...it's entertaining. Based on what I have gathered we should absolutely not sign Lip's guy afflalo as he has the worse negative value contract of anyone I looked up even worse than Crawford and Terry! Thibs knows what he is doing! :) Hopefully another WC team signs him and he will torpedo their whole team! Lol

They predicted Payne as being a slightly positive contract (defensive specialist) going forward. It's an interesting thing to plug in stuff and I am sure they have pegged some up and comers but I'm not sure how much I take from it although I'm not dismissing it by any means. It was a fun time I recommend it. Lol

Monster - Couldn't help yourself, could you? :)

Actually, before your post I had never head of the CARMELO projections. So I took a look. Regarding Afflalo, he's no worse than Jamaal Crawford and appears to be a better value at the vet minimum. Both are pretty bad. Afflalo is categorized as a "scrub" and has win over replacement (WOR) values of -1.3 and -0.4 the next two seasons, while Crawford is categorized as "way over the hill" with WOR values of -1.0 and -0.4 the next two seasons. Afflalo, however, has a much higher 5-year market value than Crawford ($17.6M v. 8.6M). So while neither is a plus based on this metric, Afflalo is a better value than Crawford at the vet minimum when considering market value.

Thabo would be a much better signing than Afflalo or Crawford based on this metric. Thabo is categorized as a "rotation player" and has WOR values of 1.3, 0.7 and 0.3. Not great, but not bad for a vet minimum backup wing. His 5-yr. market value also indicates he's a much better value than Crawford.

The CARMELO projections offer strong support for the Butler deal. Butler gets categorized as an all-star with a $215M 5-yr. market value and WOR values of 9.7, 8.3 and 7.7. In contrast, LaVine is categorized as a "project" with a $28.7M 5-yr. market value and WOR values of 0.5, 0.8 and 1.4 the next three years. Dunn's values are no better.

But we had better hope these CARMELO projections aren't reliable when it comes to Thibs' offseason moves following the Butler deal. Taj is categorized as a rotation player with a $9.2M 5-yr. market value. That doesn't support the 2-year $28 million contract we gave him. Moreover, is WOR values the next two seasons are 0.9 and 0.4. Contrast that with Patrick Patterson, who signed a much cheaper contract. Patterson is categorized by the model as a "key role player" with a 5-yr. market value of $56.7M and WOR values the next 3 years of 3.1, 2.7 and 2.0. Jeff Teague comes off pretty well in the CARMELO model. He's categorized as an "average starter" with a 5-yr. market value of $58.9M and WOR values the next 3 years of 3.5, 3.0 and 1.9. Unfortunately for the Wolves, Rubio comes off much better in the model. He's categorized as a "borderline all-star." Yes, I didn't make that up. His 5-yr. market value is projected at $141.1M with WOR values the next 3 years of 5.8, 5.6 and 4.9.

As for our two young stars, not surprisingly, Towns looks really good in the CARMELO model. He's categorized as "MVP candidate" with a 5-yr. market value of 276.4M and WOR values the next 4 years of 9.6, 9.2, 9.4 and 9.5. Wiggins doesn't fair nearly as well as Town in the model, but he does OK. He's categorized as an "up-and-comer" with a 5-yr. market value of $78.9M and WOR values of 2.3, 2.5 and 3.1 the next three years.

Interestingly, John Collins and Harry Giles fair better than Justin Patton under the model as well.

So there you have it. Assume you owned the Timberwolves and Thibs came to you for approval of all his transactions this summer. If you simply applied the CARMELO market value and WOR analysis and nothing more, you'd approve the Butler deal, reject the Rubio deal, direct him to sign Patterson at $7 million per year rather than Taj at $28 million over the next two years, and reject the Crawford signing, directing him instead to sign Thabo. And you'd also tell him to draft John Collins instead of Justin Patton. You'd have around $12 million in extra cap space by keeping Rubio and signing Patterson instead of Taj. I haven't checked the CARMELO metric for CJ Miles, but you'd have the money to sign him with plenty left over to sign someone else like an Ilyasova, Teodosic or someone else. Again, I'm just going by the CARMELO model having no idea how accurate or nuanced it is.

Lip I made this same mistake at first and I was stumped because the numbers didn't add up somehow. The values you said for Affalo and Crawford are negative values. Afflalo is a negative 17 million over he next 5 years! Lol lol :)

I'll tell you a couple factors about how they come up with these projections. I don't know how much various data point matter but I think these are worthwhile ones to mention to give some context. This was the first time I have actually looked up individual players but I have read about it before and heard it referred to on a few podcasts. I'm not expert on it but I think these points you will find useful.

1. Age is a factor. The younger the player the more potential they have and obviously the mess they drop off.

2. How high these guys are rated before they are drafted like top 100 recruiting etc. A guy like Patton who was basically an unknown guy is going to have a lower rating so would John Collins.

3. How high they are drafted is a factor. That one you can see on the charts.

Now these things make sense to do because statistically a lot of them favor favor a more positive those outcome. I think we would all agree they can also be pretty flawed as well based on some of these factors.

You don't have to convince me that Thabo (actually rated higher than Miles which makes sense) is a better player than Crawford. The question we don't know is what various guys are demanding in money and what type of place they want to go. My guy Henderson is only a little less terrible than afflalo and Rush is less bad than both at -5.8 over 5 years. Lol Bazz despite being young and all that stuff is rated -11. Ouch. Dieng is rated as a good starter and a 5 year 104 million value. These projections like Tyus better than any of the PGs left on the market I plugged in Rose had a negative value. Anyway it's fun stuff to look at and there probably can be some stuff gleaned from it. I wouldn't take it super seriously I think it probably is something good to look at if you want to see se interesting ways to look at a stastitical value to see if there is something you haven't seen which is pretty helpful. It's a fun for conversation and fun to plug in names and sometimes flat out laugh at their rating. :)

Edit:

For a chuckle look up Javelle McGee and look at the category they have for him.

Negative $17 million!? That's hilarious. I missed that. I'm still laughing after seeing McGee's category. Let's sign him! :) Good to see the authors of the model having fun with their own model.

Actually, most of the ratings I looked at seemed to track what most of us would think based on our own evaluations, using various metrics, observations and opinions. Anyway, I've had fun plugging in names. Glad you mentioned it.