Insider Wolves Article

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I agree that Sam doesn't have the defensive reputation Thibs has, but it's unclear how much of their reputations have to do with the players they were given to coach. As I mentioned above, when KG was healthy and Tay Prince was in the starting lineup, the Wolves' starting 5 ranked near the top of the NBA...so often they held opponents to less than 20 1st quarter points. Does that mean Sam was a great defensive coach at the start of the year, or do great defensive players create defensive reputations for coaches? I really don't know, but my sense is it's 80% players and 20% coaching.

Similarly, I would be more confident concluding Thibs is an elite NBA defensive coach if he had ever had great results with a group of defensively challenged players. We don't know, because his teams have always had players like Noah, Deng, Butler, KG, Rondo, etc. My best guess is that Thibs isn't going to want to start games with the same lineup that ranked near the bottom of the NBA defensively at the end of last year...just not his philosophy.

Long term, I think KAT, Wig, Gorgui and Zach have the potential to be very good NBA defenders, perhaps even elite defenders. They are all extraordinary athletes and hard workers (even Wig, I think), and all three came into the NBA with the reputation of being excellent college defenders. But the difficulty of learning the NBA game, especially defensively, is highlighted when you compare the defensive stats of the starting lineup in game 1 to the starting lineup in game 82...same coach and system, totally different results. Thibs has a great defensive reputation, and I think Zach and Wig will develop nicely under his tutelage. But it's not going to happen overnight, and that's why Thorpe et al (and some of us) advocate for signing a solid defensive vet who can allow Thibs to play Wig at a position where his rebounding doesn't hurt us, and allows Zach to develop at a more reasonable pace while providing a big spark off the bench.

We'll have to see what happens, but I for one will be really surprised (and disappointed) if Thibs' starting lineup on opening night is the same one Sam started in Game 82. We are now by most accounts an attractive free agent destination, and my expectations for this season are very high if we bring in the right guy.

LST, why would we want to change this lineup? It was winning and Thibs should recognize that even if they were poor defensively.

I guess it depends on your definition of "winning", Jerry. They did win 29 games last year, almost doubling their win total of the previous year, and they did play .500 ball over the last 1/4 of the year. And as I said above, I think they would be likely to improve to 45 wins this year without changing the lineup. But I want more than that, and I'm guessing Thibs will too, and the presence of a defensive veteran SF like Deng or Batum at SF is what we need to get to 55 wins. I agree with the pundits above who all say that last year's starting lineup won't be the lineup that takes us to the playoffs. Some of them say Gorgui should be a backup, but I side wit the majority who see Zach being best utilized as a 6th man. I think a starting lineup of KAT/(whoever Thibs chooses among KG, Belly and Gorgui)/Deng/Wig/Ricky is a superb defensive unit that can also score, and Zach as 6th man makes our bench so much more potent.

Why do I want to change the starting lineup? Because I'm greedy, and I know Deng/Wig at the wings win a lot more games than Wig/Zach.

I don't think a Wig/Deng starting lineup wins more than Zach/Wig. Wig/Deng won't be able to close out games when the paint gets locked down and they are forced to make jump shots. Also, 55 wins is pure delusion. The Thunder won 55 games this year with two top 5 players and are 1 win from the finals. You just don't go from bottom 5 to top 5 unless you add Lebron which isn't happening. I would say we would end up in the 45 win range with Deng.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Good teams don't always have 5 good defenders in their starting lineup. Look at the Cavs. They have two sub par defenders in their starting lineup and get away with it because good teams have a balance of offense and defense. They don't overload one without the other and still be good. With Ricky and Wiggins at the 1 and 3, having an offensively potent 2 is a good fit next to them. Especially next to Ricky who barely scores 10 PPG's as a primary ball handler. I would argue we need Zach's offense to have any semblance of balance on this team. His 3pt shooting and secondary ball handling are huge benefits to the starting lineup. People talk about the defensive potency of the Prince, KG lineup, but that lineup was absolute garbage on offense which is why Sam had to go away from it in the first place. They couldn't score enough to win games consistently.

There's never been an NBA team of 5 shut down defenders so why are we pushing so hard to do that? We need to find an offensive and defensive balance and Thibs' team defensive concepts should make us a much better defensive team with the talent we already have. Are we going to be the best defensive team in the league? No, but we were a top 5 offensive team in the league after the all-star break so we just need an acceptable defense to win more than we lose. And frankly the real place we need defenders is off the bench and Zach certainly doesn't fix that hole. If you want to move Zach to the bench that's fine, but that means Bazz has to go because they cannot play together. There's no point overloading the first unit with defenders if the second unit is just going to get torched which will happen until the end of time if Zach and Bazz are your bench wings.

A Ricky, Wiggins, Deng starting lineup is very potent defensively, but it will not be good enough offensively to win a significant amount of games. The 3 of them can't shoot well enough from 3 to be a good offensive lineup. You'd just end up like the Grizzlies. Good, but not good enough because you lack true balance as a team.

I agree with you that you don't need 5 plus defenders in your starting lineup, khans. The problem is that with Zach in the starting lineup, we have way too many defensive holes. When you say that it is fine to have on offensive SG between Ricky and Wig, I think you are ignoring what defensive measures say about Wig...not only is he a very poor rebounding forward (3.6 per game), he also ranks poorly in most defensive measures. ESPN ranks him 73rd at his position with a DRPM of a negative 2.04 (Zach has a worse DRPM of -3.69, but together they are the worst defending wing tandem in the league), and basketball-reference.com gives him a very poor defensive rating of 113. You simply can't have these two guys starting as your wing defenders and expect to be even an adequate defensive team. But if you substitute Deng for Zach, you add a guy with a positive DRPM of .79 and a very good defensive rating on basketball-reference of 104.

By the way, while Ricky measures out as an elite defender by most measures (3rd among PG's in DRPM), the only other plus defender in Sam's year-end starting lineup was Gorgui who ranked 19th with a DRPM of 2.57 (surprisingly tied with Whiteside). We all believe KAT has potential to be a top defender, but homer Jim Peterson often called him out last year for is poor pick and roll defense, and it shows in his 66th place ranking among centers in DRPM.

Thibs is going to eventually help turn KAT, Wig and Zach into plus defenders, but it's not going to happen for a couple years. Meanwhile, I want another plus defender out there with. Ricky in my starting lineup.

You make a good point though about the inadvisability of pairing Zach with Bazz, and I'm guessing that Thibs will see that is an even worse idea than pairing Wig and Zach together. That's why my rotation has Zach coming in for Deng and moving Wig to SF for a few minutes until Deng is ready to come back in to play with Zach. If we pick up a SF like Deng or Batum, I see that vet sharing the 96 wing minutes with Wig and Zach, and Bazz just getting table scraps as long as all three are healthy. If Bazz can show Thibs he can play defense though, he may find a way into the rotation.

(Cue the "defensive stats are meaningless" rebuttal in 5...4...3...)

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Good teams don't always have 5 good defenders in their starting lineup. Look at the Cavs. They have two sub par defenders in their starting lineup and get away with it because good teams have a balance of offense and defense. They don't overload one without the other and still be good. With Ricky and Wiggins at the 1 and 3, having an offensively potent 2 is a good fit next to them. Especially next to Ricky who barely scores 10 PPG's as a primary ball handler. I would argue we need Zach's offense to have any semblance of balance on this team. His 3pt shooting and secondary ball handling are huge benefits to the starting lineup. People talk about the defensive potency of the Prince, KG lineup, but that lineup was absolute garbage on offense which is why Sam had to go away from it in the first place. They couldn't score enough to win games consistently.

There's never been an NBA team of 5 shut down defenders so why are we pushing so hard to do that? We need to find an offensive and defensive balance and Thibs' team defensive concepts should make us a much better defensive team with the talent we already have. Are we going to be the best defensive team in the league? No, but we were a top 5 offensive team in the league after the all-star break so we just need an acceptable defense to win more than we lose. And frankly the real place we need defenders is off the bench and Zach certainly doesn't fix that hole. If you want to move Zach to the bench that's fine, but that means Bazz has to go because they cannot play together. There's no point overloading the first unit with defenders if the second unit is just going to get torched which will happen until the end of time if Zach and Bazz are your bench wings.

A Ricky, Wiggins, Deng starting lineup is very potent defensively, but it will not be good enough offensively to win a significant amount of games. The 3 of them can't shoot well enough from 3 to be a good offensive lineup. You'd just end up like the Grizzlies. Good, but not good enough because you lack true balance as a team.

I agree with you that you don't need 5 plus defenders in your starting lineup, khans. The problem is that with Zach in the starting lineup, we have way too many defensive holes. When you say that it is fine to have on offensive SG between Ricky and Wig, I think you are ignoring what defensive measures say about Wig...not only is he a very poor rebounding forward (3.6 per game), he also ranks poorly in most defensive measures. ESPN ranks him 73rd at his position with a DRPM of a negative 2.04 (Zach has a worse DRPM of -3.69, but together they are the worst defending wing tandem in the league), and basketball-reference.com gives him a very poor defensive rating of 113. You simply can't have these two guys starting as your wing defenders and expect to be even an adequate defensive team. But if you substitute Deng for Zach, you add a guy with a positive DRPM of .79 and a very good defensive rating on basketball-reference of 104.

By the way, while Ricky measures out as an elite defender by most measures (3rd among PG's in DRPM), the only other plus defender in Sam's year-end starting lineup was Gorgui who ranked 19th with a DRPM of 2.57 (surprisingly tied with Whiteside). We all believe KAT has potential to be a top defender, but homer Jim Peterson often called him out last year for is poor pick and roll defense, and it shows in his 66th place ranking among centers in DRPM.

Thibs is going to eventually help turn KAT, Wig and Zach into plus defenders, but it's not going to happen for a couple years. Meanwhile, I want another plus defender out there with. Ricky in my starting lineup.

You make a good point though about the inadvisability of pairing Zach with Bazz, and I'm guessing that Thibs will see that is an even worse idea than pairing Wig and Zach together. That's why my rotation has Zach coming in for Deng and moving Wig to SF for a few minutes until Deng is ready to come back in to play with Zach. If we pick up a SF like Deng or Batum, I see that vet sharing the 96 wing minutes with Wig and Zach, and Bazz just getting table scraps as long as all three are healthy. If Bazz can show Thibs he can play defense though, he may find a way into the rotation.

(Cue the "defensive stats are meaningless" rebuttal in 5...4...3...)

Defensive stats aren't meaningless, but you're using them for 20 and 21 year olds like they are years away from any kind of significant improvement. An extra year of strength training so they physically can hold their ground better and a new coaching philosophy could make them at least positive defenders by next year. Otherwise where do you think the improvement comes to get us to 55 wins? I can tell you now the difference between Deng and Zach isn't 20+ wins so you must be expecting improvement somewhere else to get us to that point so I don't think it's fair to use those stats so heavily if you actually expect improvement in them. Year 3 is usually the best year to measure players because they are either physically finally on the same playing field as the rest of the league or mentally they have finally caught up. Zach and Wiggins are going into year 3 and Towns is still just going to be a sophomore. I'd rather see what they have this year under Thibs than commit to Deng and hope he's the right piece or have to wait 3-4 years until they can get another guy in hopes he's the right piece.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I agree that Sam doesn't have the defensive reputation Thibs has, but it's unclear how much of their reputations have to do with the players they were given to coach. As I mentioned above, when KG was healthy and Tay Prince was in the starting lineup, the Wolves' starting 5 ranked near the top of the NBA...so often they held opponents to less than 20 1st quarter points. Does that mean Sam was a great defensive coach at the start of the year, or do great defensive players create defensive reputations for coaches? I really don't know, but my sense is it's 80% players and 20% coaching.

Similarly, I would be more confident concluding Thibs is an elite NBA defensive coach if he had ever had great results with a group of defensively challenged players. We don't know, because his teams have always had players like Noah, Deng, Butler, KG, Rondo, etc. My best guess is that Thibs isn't going to want to start games with the same lineup that ranked near the bottom of the NBA defensively at the end of last year...just not his philosophy.

Long term, I think KAT, Wig, Gorgui and Zach have the potential to be very good NBA defenders, perhaps even elite defenders. They are all extraordinary athletes and hard workers (even Wig, I think), and all three came into the NBA with the reputation of being excellent college defenders. But the difficulty of learning the NBA game, especially defensively, is highlighted when you compare the defensive stats of the starting lineup in game 1 to the starting lineup in game 82...same coach and system, totally different results. Thibs has a great defensive reputation, and I think Zach and Wig will develop nicely under his tutelage. But it's not going to happen overnight, and that's why Thorpe et al (and some of us) advocate for signing a solid defensive vet who can allow Thibs to play Wig at a position where his rebounding doesn't hurt us, and allows Zach to develop at a more reasonable pace while providing a big spark off the bench.

We'll have to see what happens, but I for one will be really surprised (and disappointed) if Thibs' starting lineup on opening night is the same one Sam started in Game 82. We are now by most accounts an attractive free agent destination, and my expectations for this season are very high if we bring in the right guy.

LST, why would we want to change this lineup? It was winning and Thibs should recognize that even if they were poor defensively.

I guess it depends on your definition of "winning", Jerry. They did win 29 games last year, almost doubling their win total of the previous year, and they did play .500 ball over the last 1/4 of the year. And as I said above, I think they would be likely to improve to 45 wins this year without changing the lineup. But I want more than that, and I'm guessing Thibs will too, and the presence of a defensive veteran SF like Deng or Batum at SF is what we need to get to 55 wins. I agree with the pundits above who all say that last year's starting lineup won't be the lineup that takes us to the playoffs. Some of them say Gorgui should be a backup, but I side wit the majority who see Zach being best utilized as a 6th man. I think a starting lineup of KAT/(whoever Thibs chooses among KG, Belly and Gorgui)/Deng/Wig/Ricky is a superb defensive unit that can also score, and Zach as 6th man makes our bench so much more potent.

Why do I want to change the starting lineup? Because I'm greedy, and I know Deng/Wig at the wings win a lot more games than Wig/Zach.

I don't think a Wig/Deng starting lineup wins more than Zach/Wig. Wig/Deng won't be able to close out games when the paint gets locked down and they are forced to make jump shots. Also, 55 wins is pure delusion. The Thunder won 55 games this year with two top 5 players and are 1 win from the finals. You just don't go from bottom 5 to top 5 unless you add Lebron which isn't happening. I would say we would end up in the 45 win range with Deng.

Umm...we're going to have to disagree on that conclusion, khans. Here are their comparative stats from last year:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=lavinza01&p2=denglu01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

I love Zach's potential, but he's just not in Deng's stratosphere at this stage of their careers...a 17 point difference between the two in offensive and defensive ratings. Yes, Zach is a better 3-point shooter, but only by 4 percentage points. And Deng is very good jump shooter, so there is very little difference between the two in TS%.

But the real difference between the two is on defense. Closing out games is mostly about making stops...something the Wolves have struggled with frankly since KG left the team. And Deng will help get you stops at this stage of his career as he showed against DeRozen...Zach, not so much.

[KiwiMatt]

What contract do people have in mind for signing Deng? Sounds like Miami may overpay to keep him.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I agree that Sam doesn't have the defensive reputation Thibs has, but it's unclear how much of their reputations have to do with the players they were given to coach. As I mentioned above, when KG was healthy and Tay Prince was in the starting lineup, the Wolves' starting 5 ranked near the top of the NBA...so often they held opponents to less than 20 1st quarter points. Does that mean Sam was a great defensive coach at the start of the year, or do great defensive players create defensive reputations for coaches? I really don't know, but my sense is it's 80% players and 20% coaching.

Similarly, I would be more confident concluding Thibs is an elite NBA defensive coach if he had ever had great results with a group of defensively challenged players. We don't know, because his teams have always had players like Noah, Deng, Butler, KG, Rondo, etc. My best guess is that Thibs isn't going to want to start games with the same lineup that ranked near the bottom of the NBA defensively at the end of last year...just not his philosophy.

Long term, I think KAT, Wig, Gorgui and Zach have the potential to be very good NBA defenders, perhaps even elite defenders. They are all extraordinary athletes and hard workers (even Wig, I think), and all three came into the NBA with the reputation of being excellent college defenders. But the difficulty of learning the NBA game, especially defensively, is highlighted when you compare the defensive stats of the starting lineup in game 1 to the starting lineup in game 82...same coach and system, totally different results. Thibs has a great defensive reputation, and I think Zach and Wig will develop nicely under his tutelage. But it's not going to happen overnight, and that's why Thorpe et al (and some of us) advocate for signing a solid defensive vet who can allow Thibs to play Wig at a position where his rebounding doesn't hurt us, and allows Zach to develop at a more reasonable pace while providing a big spark off the bench.

We'll have to see what happens, but I for one will be really surprised (and disappointed) if Thibs' starting lineup on opening night is the same one Sam started in Game 82. We are now by most accounts an attractive free agent destination, and my expectations for this season are very high if we bring in the right guy.

LST, why would we want to change this lineup? It was winning and Thibs should recognize that even if they were poor defensively.

I guess it depends on your definition of "winning", Jerry. They did win 29 games last year, almost doubling their win total of the previous year, and they did play .500 ball over the last 1/4 of the year. And as I said above, I think they would be likely to improve to 45 wins this year without changing the lineup. But I want more than that, and I'm guessing Thibs will too, and the presence of a defensive veteran SF like Deng or Batum at SF is what we need to get to 55 wins. I agree with the pundits above who all say that last year's starting lineup won't be the lineup that takes us to the playoffs. Some of them say Gorgui should be a backup, but I side wit the majority who see Zach being best utilized as a 6th man. I think a starting lineup of KAT/(whoever Thibs chooses among KG, Belly and Gorgui)/Deng/Wig/Ricky is a superb defensive unit that can also score, and Zach as 6th man makes our bench so much more potent.

Why do I want to change the starting lineup? Because I'm greedy, and I know Deng/Wig at the wings win a lot more games than Wig/Zach.

I don't think a Wig/Deng starting lineup wins more than Zach/Wig. Wig/Deng won't be able to close out games when the paint gets locked down and they are forced to make jump shots. Also, 55 wins is pure delusion. The Thunder won 55 games this year with two top 5 players and are 1 win from the finals. You just don't go from bottom 5 to top 5 unless you add Lebron which isn't happening. I would say we would end up in the 45 win range with Deng.

Umm...we're going to have to disagree on that conclusion, khans. Here are their comparative stats from last year:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=lavinza01&p2=denglu01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

I love Zach's potential, but he's just not in Deng's stratosphere at this stage of their careers...a 17 point difference between the two in offensive and defensive ratings. Yes, Zach is a better 3-point shooter, but only by 4 percentage points. And Deng is very good jump shooter, so there is very little difference between the two in TS%.

But the real difference between the two is on defense. Closing out games is mostly about making stops...something the Wolves have struggled with frankly since KG left the team. And Deng will help get you stops at this stage of his career as he showed against DeRozen...Zach, not so much.

The link you provided is comparing career stats, not just last year. I'd say it's a little unfair to compare the stats of a 2 year career to that of an 11 year one.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

What contract do people have in mind for signing Deng? Sounds like Miami may overpay to keep him.

It's tough to really say. Are you paying him to play SF or PF? He's a mediocre player at this age as a SF and should be paid as such. As a PF, though, he should command more than that of an average NBA player.

I don't have any inside knowledge, but I do know Deng's coming off a two-year, $20M deal. He's 31-years old now and I'd be signing him to play more PF than SF where he's a better player. The number I've been throwing around is three-years, $39M.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I agree that Sam doesn't have the defensive reputation Thibs has, but it's unclear how much of their reputations have to do with the players they were given to coach. As I mentioned above, when KG was healthy and Tay Prince was in the starting lineup, the Wolves' starting 5 ranked near the top of the NBA...so often they held opponents to less than 20 1st quarter points. Does that mean Sam was a great defensive coach at the start of the year, or do great defensive players create defensive reputations for coaches? I really don't know, but my sense is it's 80% players and 20% coaching.

Similarly, I would be more confident concluding Thibs is an elite NBA defensive coach if he had ever had great results with a group of defensively challenged players. We don't know, because his teams have always had players like Noah, Deng, Butler, KG, Rondo, etc. My best guess is that Thibs isn't going to want to start games with the same lineup that ranked near the bottom of the NBA defensively at the end of last year...just not his philosophy.

Long term, I think KAT, Wig, Gorgui and Zach have the potential to be very good NBA defenders, perhaps even elite defenders. They are all extraordinary athletes and hard workers (even Wig, I think), and all three came into the NBA with the reputation of being excellent college defenders. But the difficulty of learning the NBA game, especially defensively, is highlighted when you compare the defensive stats of the starting lineup in game 1 to the starting lineup in game 82...same coach and system, totally different results. Thibs has a great defensive reputation, and I think Zach and Wig will develop nicely under his tutelage. But it's not going to happen overnight, and that's why Thorpe et al (and some of us) advocate for signing a solid defensive vet who can allow Thibs to play Wig at a position where his rebounding doesn't hurt us, and allows Zach to develop at a more reasonable pace while providing a big spark off the bench.

We'll have to see what happens, but I for one will be really surprised (and disappointed) if Thibs' starting lineup on opening night is the same one Sam started in Game 82. We are now by most accounts an attractive free agent destination, and my expectations for this season are very high if we bring in the right guy.

LST, why would we want to change this lineup? It was winning and Thibs should recognize that even if they were poor defensively.

I guess it depends on your definition of "winning", Jerry. They did win 29 games last year, almost doubling their win total of the previous year, and they did play .500 ball over the last 1/4 of the year. And as I said above, I think they would be likely to improve to 45 wins this year without changing the lineup. But I want more than that, and I'm guessing Thibs will too, and the presence of a defensive veteran SF like Deng or Batum at SF is what we need to get to 55 wins. I agree with the pundits above who all say that last year's starting lineup won't be the lineup that takes us to the playoffs. Some of them say Gorgui should be a backup, but I side wit the majority who see Zach being best utilized as a 6th man. I think a starting lineup of KAT/(whoever Thibs chooses among KG, Belly and Gorgui)/Deng/Wig/Ricky is a superb defensive unit that can also score, and Zach as 6th man makes our bench so much more potent.

Why do I want to change the starting lineup? Because I'm greedy, and I know Deng/Wig at the wings win a lot more games than Wig/Zach.

I don't think a Wig/Deng starting lineup wins more than Zach/Wig. Wig/Deng won't be able to close out games when the paint gets locked down and they are forced to make jump shots. Also, 55 wins is pure delusion. The Thunder won 55 games this year with two top 5 players and are 1 win from the finals. You just don't go from bottom 5 to top 5 unless you add Lebron which isn't happening. I would say we would end up in the 45 win range with Deng.

Umm...we're going to have to disagree on that conclusion, khans. Here are their comparative stats from last year:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=lavinza01&p2=denglu01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

I love Zach's potential, but he's just not in Deng's stratosphere at this stage of their careers...a 17 point difference between the two in offensive and defensive ratings. Yes, Zach is a better 3-point shooter, but only by 4 percentage points. And Deng is very good jump shooter, so there is very little difference between the two in TS%.

But the real difference between the two is on defense. Closing out games is mostly about making stops...something the Wolves have struggled with frankly since KG left the team. And Deng will help get you stops at this stage of his career as he showed against DeRozen...Zach, not so much.

The link you provided is comparing career stats, not just last year. I'd say it's a little unfair to compare the stats of a 2 year career to that of an 11 year one.

Good catch, khans. While I'm not above slanting data to support an argument, in this case it was just an error. Here are the comparatives for last year:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2016&p1=denglu01&y2=2016&p2=lavinza01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

Still comparable TS% and still a big difference of 15 between their net offensive and defensive ratings.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

What contract do people have in mind for signing Deng? Sounds like Miami may overpay to keep him.

It's tough to really say. Are you paying him to play SF or PF? He's a mediocre player at this age as a SF and should be paid as such. As a PF, though, he should command more than that of an average NBA player.

I don't have any inside knowledge, but I do know Deng's coming off a two-year, $20M deal. He's 31-years old now and I'd be signing him to play more PF than SF where he's a better player. The number I've been throwing around is three-years, $39M.

I'm not sure I would call the guy who gave Derozen fits in the playoffs a mediocre SF, but I agree that it's tough to know what he is looking for. One of the reasons I prefer Deng to Batum is that he will not command a max contract, leaving flexibility for the Wolves when they need to pay their young guys. I don't want to offer more than 3 years to Deng, and wouldn't want to go any more than $15M per year.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I agree that Sam doesn't have the defensive reputation Thibs has, but it's unclear how much of their reputations have to do with the players they were given to coach. As I mentioned above, when KG was healthy and Tay Prince was in the starting lineup, the Wolves' starting 5 ranked near the top of the NBA...so often they held opponents to less than 20 1st quarter points. Does that mean Sam was a great defensive coach at the start of the year, or do great defensive players create defensive reputations for coaches? I really don't know, but my sense is it's 80% players and 20% coaching.

Similarly, I would be more confident concluding Thibs is an elite NBA defensive coach if he had ever had great results with a group of defensively challenged players. We don't know, because his teams have always had players like Noah, Deng, Butler, KG, Rondo, etc. My best guess is that Thibs isn't going to want to start games with the same lineup that ranked near the bottom of the NBA defensively at the end of last year...just not his philosophy.

Long term, I think KAT, Wig, Gorgui and Zach have the potential to be very good NBA defenders, perhaps even elite defenders. They are all extraordinary athletes and hard workers (even Wig, I think), and all three came into the NBA with the reputation of being excellent college defenders. But the difficulty of learning the NBA game, especially defensively, is highlighted when you compare the defensive stats of the starting lineup in game 1 to the starting lineup in game 82...same coach and system, totally different results. Thibs has a great defensive reputation, and I think Zach and Wig will develop nicely under his tutelage. But it's not going to happen overnight, and that's why Thorpe et al (and some of us) advocate for signing a solid defensive vet who can allow Thibs to play Wig at a position where his rebounding doesn't hurt us, and allows Zach to develop at a more reasonable pace while providing a big spark off the bench.

We'll have to see what happens, but I for one will be really surprised (and disappointed) if Thibs' starting lineup on opening night is the same one Sam started in Game 82. We are now by most accounts an attractive free agent destination, and my expectations for this season are very high if we bring in the right guy.

LST, why would we want to change this lineup? It was winning and Thibs should recognize that even if they were poor defensively.

I guess it depends on your definition of "winning", Jerry. They did win 29 games last year, almost doubling their win total of the previous year, and they did play .500 ball over the last 1/4 of the year. And as I said above, I think they would be likely to improve to 45 wins this year without changing the lineup. But I want more than that, and I'm guessing Thibs will too, and the presence of a defensive veteran SF like Deng or Batum at SF is what we need to get to 55 wins. I agree with the pundits above who all say that last year's starting lineup won't be the lineup that takes us to the playoffs. Some of them say Gorgui should be a backup, but I side wit the majority who see Zach being best utilized as a 6th man. I think a starting lineup of KAT/(whoever Thibs chooses among KG, Belly and Gorgui)/Deng/Wig/Ricky is a superb defensive unit that can also score, and Zach as 6th man makes our bench so much more potent.

Why do I want to change the starting lineup? Because I'm greedy, and I know Deng/Wig at the wings win a lot more games than Wig/Zach.

I don't think a Wig/Deng starting lineup wins more than Zach/Wig. Wig/Deng won't be able to close out games when the paint gets locked down and they are forced to make jump shots. Also, 55 wins is pure delusion. The Thunder won 55 games this year with two top 5 players and are 1 win from the finals. You just don't go from bottom 5 to top 5 unless you add Lebron which isn't happening. I would say we would end up in the 45 win range with Deng.

Umm...we're going to have to disagree on that conclusion, khans. Here are their comparative stats from last year:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=lavinza01&p2=denglu01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

I love Zach's potential, but he's just not in Deng's stratosphere at this stage of their careers...a 17 point difference between the two in offensive and defensive ratings. Yes, Zach is a better 3-point shooter, but only by 4 percentage points. And Deng is very good jump shooter, so there is very little difference between the two in TS%.

But the real difference between the two is on defense. Closing out games is mostly about making stops...something the Wolves have struggled with frankly since KG left the team. And Deng will help get you stops at this stage of his career as he showed against DeRozen...Zach, not so much.

The link you provided is comparing career stats, not just last year. I'd say it's a little unfair to compare the stats of a 2 year career to that of an 11 year one.

Good catch, khans. While I'm not above slanting data to support an argument, in this case it was just an error. Here are the comparatives for last year:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2016&p1=denglu01&y2=2016&p2=lavinza01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

Still comparable TS% and still a big difference of 15 between their net offensive and defensive ratings.

So the difference that matters to me in those stats is the extra 3.8 win shares Deng provides. That number tells me our other players are going to have to significantly improve anyway to still be a playoff team with Deng. I think Zach can become 3.8 wins better with another off season of development and under Thibs' coaching. I think Deng is a decent player. I just don't see a huge leap in team play and record you do just by putting him in the starting lineup over Zach. The stats show the individual stats aren't that far off and only the team stats are significantly different which makes sense when comparing a bottom 5 team to a playoff team. Zach has all kinds of noise in his stats being on a terrible bench unit and playing out of position for large chunks of last year and he still pulled of decent stats for the year outside of defense. I think overall you're just too focused on fixing this team now when we still have a lot of development to do which could change the outlook of the team significantly. Zach could become an all-star and push Deng to the bench anyway. Or Zach could be just be what he is. If he's the former, Deng becomes an expensive bench piece, but still a good piece come playoff time. If Zach is the latter, Deng won't make any difference anyway to our hopes at being a top 4 team. He is a role player after all, not an all-star. I'd rather give Zach the chance to become that all-star in the starting lineup than relegate him to 6th man duty already in his career. That's neither a recipe for him to attain that status nor keep him interested in staying here long-term. I'll end with this. Harden was a great bench player in OKC. He didn't take the next step to becoming an all-star until he became a starter in Houston. That happened for a reason.