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Re: Zach Lavine is pretty good - GDT

Posted: Wed Mar 09, 2016 4:10 pm
by bleedspeed
Why didn't Flip go for my guy Portis rather that a future backup in Tyus? (I am inching closer to forgiveness on that)

Re: Zach Lavine is pretty good - GDT

Posted: Wed Mar 09, 2016 4:12 pm
by TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]
I don't disagree with you, but the Wolves have been so bad at picking in the second round that we never expect to find anything of value there. In 2012, Jae Crowder and Draymond Green were taken in the second round back to back and then Khris Middleton was selected a few picks later.

Re: Zach Lavine is pretty good - GDT

Posted: Wed Mar 09, 2016 4:14 pm
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
thedoper wrote:
Q12543 wrote:
thedoper wrote:
Brooklyn_Wolves wrote:
thedoper wrote:Basketball Reference has Rubio 289th on their defensive rating stat fyi. Don't really know which is better (or more accurate), but that puts him on par with Derrick Rose in terms of his D at the position. The top 20 has similar names and positions as DRPM accept with the addition of Whiteside as #1 (no wonder ESPN wanted their own stat).


http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_per_poss.html


I hope you realize that your link is listing all NBA players in alphabetic order. :roll:


I should have noted that the columns are sortable for those that aren't used to this technology. Sort the columns based on Defensive rating and find him there.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_per_poss.html#per_poss::31

Edited and did it for you.



You have to be careful using the Basketball Reference defensive rating stat as it relates to individual players. Except for that site, most other places use defensive rating in only a team context and it generally means points allowed per 100 possessions. In fact, even B-ball reference uses the traditional points per 100 possessions allowed in its team rankings and individual player On/Off stats.

Here is the caveat from the b-ball reference glossary on the individual Drtg stat:

"Out of necessity (owing to a lack of defensive data in the basic boxscore), individual Defensive Ratings are heavily influenced by the team's defensive efficiency. They assume that all teammates are equally good (per minute) at forcing non-steal turnovers and non-block misses, as well as assuming that all teammates face the same number of total possessions per minute"

Now, insofar as Rubio is part of a team that happens to sport the second worst team defensive rating in the league, it's easy to see how that spills over into his individual Drtg stat. Now if I thought all of our individual defenders were about equal in terms of their skills and abilities, he would deserve his proportionate share of the poor team performance. But I don't believe that. I think our poor team defensive rating is due largely to a subset of truly terrible defenders, poor coaching, and youth.


I hear you and agree with you analysis of Drtg its shortcomings. My point was that you get a nice top 20 NBA defenders from defensive rating too. What about him being approximately 15th-20th in the league among PGs (equal positioning as defensive rating) in Defensive win shares and in Defensive box plus minus? (I get that we don't win on the win shares bit)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_advanced.html#advanced::21
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_advanced.html#advanced::26

There are other advanced stats placing him where the eye test truly seems to put him. DRPM seems to be the only stat that makes him a dominant defensive PG. I'm fine citing the nuanced problems with certain advanced stats.DRPM has its shortcomings too. DRPM as far as I understand it is and individuals defensive metrics relative to their own team defensive average. This makes sense to inflate Rubios standing since we are obviously complete horseshit defensively in our second unit. The overall point is that I don't see a dominant player in any aspect of Rubio's game. I also don't see a defensive gem in a group of poor defenders. I see a good to average player on both sides of the ball who plays with heart and passion, two things I respect about him.


Mmm, I have him in the top 15 when you look at starting PGs in both DWS and DBPM, but yeah, neither are as kind to him as DRPM. Again, I believe both of these have their flaws.

Frankly, there is a somewhat limited impact a PG can have on a team defense. One thing you will notice about all of these defensive stats is that bigs and then wings tend to dominate the top of each respective stat. The problem with our squad is we have so many weak links defensively, it would really hurt to have yet another one at PG.

I think we can safely say that Rubio is fully capable of being part of an elite defensive unit, just like he's fully capable of being part of an elite offensive unit. He doesn't detract from either objective and therefore is truly a two-way player.

On the other hand, I think we can also safely say that Rubio isn't going to be the lead banana on a truly elite offensive or defensive unit. He is an important seasoning to the main course, if you will. It just won't taste the same without him!

Re: Zach Lavine is pretty good - GDT

Posted: Wed Mar 09, 2016 4:18 pm
by thedoper
Q12543 wrote:
thedoper wrote:
Q12543 wrote:
thedoper wrote:
Brooklyn_Wolves wrote:
thedoper wrote:Basketball Reference has Rubio 289th on their defensive rating stat fyi. Don't really know which is better (or more accurate), but that puts him on par with Derrick Rose in terms of his D at the position. The top 20 has similar names and positions as DRPM accept with the addition of Whiteside as #1 (no wonder ESPN wanted their own stat).


http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_per_poss.html


I hope you realize that your link is listing all NBA players in alphabetic order. :roll:


I should have noted that the columns are sortable for those that aren't used to this technology. Sort the columns based on Defensive rating and find him there.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_per_poss.html#per_poss::31

Edited and did it for you.



You have to be careful using the Basketball Reference defensive rating stat as it relates to individual players. Except for that site, most other places use defensive rating in only a team context and it generally means points allowed per 100 possessions. In fact, even B-ball reference uses the traditional points per 100 possessions allowed in its team rankings and individual player On/Off stats.

Here is the caveat from the b-ball reference glossary on the individual Drtg stat:

"Out of necessity (owing to a lack of defensive data in the basic boxscore), individual Defensive Ratings are heavily influenced by the team's defensive efficiency. They assume that all teammates are equally good (per minute) at forcing non-steal turnovers and non-block misses, as well as assuming that all teammates face the same number of total possessions per minute"

Now, insofar as Rubio is part of a team that happens to sport the second worst team defensive rating in the league, it's easy to see how that spills over into his individual Drtg stat. Now if I thought all of our individual defenders were about equal in terms of their skills and abilities, he would deserve his proportionate share of the poor team performance. But I don't believe that. I think our poor team defensive rating is due largely to a subset of truly terrible defenders, poor coaching, and youth.


I hear you and agree with you analysis of Drtg its shortcomings. My point was that you get a nice top 20 NBA defenders from defensive rating too. What about him being approximately 15th-20th in the league among PGs (equal positioning as defensive rating) in Defensive win shares and in Defensive box plus minus? (I get that we don't win on the win shares bit)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_advanced.html#advanced::21
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_advanced.html#advanced::26

There are other advanced stats placing him where the eye test truly seems to put him. DRPM seems to be the only stat that makes him a dominant defensive PG. I'm fine citing the nuanced problems with certain advanced stats.DRPM has its shortcomings too. DRPM as far as I understand it is and individuals defensive metrics relative to their own team defensive average. This makes sense to inflate Rubios standing since we are obviously complete horseshit defensively in our second unit. The overall point is that I don't see a dominant player in any aspect of Rubio's game. I also don't see a defensive gem in a group of poor defenders. I see a good to average player on both sides of the ball who plays with heart and passion, two things I respect about him.


Mmm, I have him in the top 15 when you look at starting PGs in both DWS and DBPM, but yeah, neither are as kind to him as DRPM. Again, I believe both of these have their flaws.

Frankly, there is a somewhat limited impact a PG can have on a team defense. One thing you will notice about all of these defensive stats is that bigs and then wings tend to dominate the top of each respective stat. The problem with our squad is we have so many weak links defensively, it would really hurt to have yet another one at PG.

I think we can safely say that Rubio is fully capable of being part of an elite defensive unit, just like he's fully capable of being part of an elite offensive unit. He doesn't detract from either objective and therefore is truly a two-way player.

On the other hand, I think we can also safely say that Rubio isn't going to be the lead banana on a truly elite offensive or defensive unit. He is an important seasoning to the main course, if you will. It just won't taste the same without him!


I think we finally agree. Getting to yes is great. So want to upgrade him too them. ;)

Re: Zach Lavine is pretty good - GDT

Posted: Wed Mar 09, 2016 4:23 pm
by Carlos Danger
bleedspeed177 wrote:Why didn't Flip go for my guy Portis rather that a future backup in Tyus? (I am inching closer to forgiveness on that)


IDK Bleed. All I can do is try and take myself back to what we knew/had at that moment in time. And (as crazy as it sounds now) many thought we were "deep" at PF. I think we still had Bennett in the mix. We had KG and Payne - both of which Flip acquired on months earlier. We were going to draft Towns. Pek was supposedly getting healthy (allowing Towns to play some PF). And if we didn't have Belly yet, they pretty much knew they were bringing him over. We know how that depth turned out. And some could have predicted as much. But I assume at the time the thought process was adding another PF wouldn't make sense.

Re: Zach Lavine is pretty good - GDT

Posted: Wed Mar 09, 2016 4:25 pm
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
bleedspeed177 wrote:Why didn't Flip go for my guy Portis rather that a future backup in Tyus? (I am inching closer to forgiveness on that)


Ahem... :rolls:

We had already acquired Payne. That's why. In a perfect world, we never do the Payne or KG trades. We use those 2nd rounders to move up and get Portis. Sign Garnett to a one-year deal in FA. Save a first round pick, have a better overall team despite not having Jones, which I would have been so fine with.

Re: Zach Lavine is pretty good - GDT

Posted: Wed Mar 09, 2016 4:37 pm
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
thedoper wrote:
Q12543 wrote:
thedoper wrote:
Q12543 wrote:
thedoper wrote:
Brooklyn_Wolves wrote:
thedoper wrote:Basketball Reference has Rubio 289th on their defensive rating stat fyi. Don't really know which is better (or more accurate), but that puts him on par with Derrick Rose in terms of his D at the position. The top 20 has similar names and positions as DRPM accept with the addition of Whiteside as #1 (no wonder ESPN wanted their own stat).


http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_per_poss.html


I hope you realize that your link is listing all NBA players in alphabetic order. :roll:


I should have noted that the columns are sortable for those that aren't used to this technology. Sort the columns based on Defensive rating and find him there.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_per_poss.html#per_poss::31

Edited and did it for you.



You have to be careful using the Basketball Reference defensive rating stat as it relates to individual players. Except for that site, most other places use defensive rating in only a team context and it generally means points allowed per 100 possessions. In fact, even B-ball reference uses the traditional points per 100 possessions allowed in its team rankings and individual player On/Off stats.

Here is the caveat from the b-ball reference glossary on the individual Drtg stat:

"Out of necessity (owing to a lack of defensive data in the basic boxscore), individual Defensive Ratings are heavily influenced by the team's defensive efficiency. They assume that all teammates are equally good (per minute) at forcing non-steal turnovers and non-block misses, as well as assuming that all teammates face the same number of total possessions per minute"

Now, insofar as Rubio is part of a team that happens to sport the second worst team defensive rating in the league, it's easy to see how that spills over into his individual Drtg stat. Now if I thought all of our individual defenders were about equal in terms of their skills and abilities, he would deserve his proportionate share of the poor team performance. But I don't believe that. I think our poor team defensive rating is due largely to a subset of truly terrible defenders, poor coaching, and youth.


I hear you and agree with you analysis of Drtg its shortcomings. My point was that you get a nice top 20 NBA defenders from defensive rating too. What about him being approximately 15th-20th in the league among PGs (equal positioning as defensive rating) in Defensive win shares and in Defensive box plus minus? (I get that we don't win on the win shares bit)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_advanced.html#advanced::21
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_advanced.html#advanced::26

There are other advanced stats placing him where the eye test truly seems to put him. DRPM seems to be the only stat that makes him a dominant defensive PG. I'm fine citing the nuanced problems with certain advanced stats.DRPM has its shortcomings too. DRPM as far as I understand it is and individuals defensive metrics relative to their own team defensive average. This makes sense to inflate Rubios standing since we are obviously complete horseshit defensively in our second unit. The overall point is that I don't see a dominant player in any aspect of Rubio's game. I also don't see a defensive gem in a group of poor defenders. I see a good to average player on both sides of the ball who plays with heart and passion, two things I respect about him.


Mmm, I have him in the top 15 when you look at starting PGs in both DWS and DBPM, but yeah, neither are as kind to him as DRPM. Again, I believe both of these have their flaws.

Frankly, there is a somewhat limited impact a PG can have on a team defense. One thing you will notice about all of these defensive stats is that bigs and then wings tend to dominate the top of each respective stat. The problem with our squad is we have so many weak links defensively, it would really hurt to have yet another one at PG.

I think we can safely say that Rubio is fully capable of being part of an elite defensive unit, just like he's fully capable of being part of an elite offensive unit. He doesn't detract from either objective and therefore is truly a two-way player.

On the other hand, I think we can also safely say that Rubio isn't going to be the lead banana on a truly elite offensive or defensive unit. He is an important seasoning to the main course, if you will. It just won't taste the same without him!


I think we finally agree. Getting to yes is great. So want to upgrade him too them. ;)



There are two scenarios where I would consider trading Rubio:

1) We organically develop a PG behind him that gets good enough to take his place. I doubt it's Tyus Jones, but perhaps it's Kris Dunn or someone else we pick up. Of course, this scenario applies to every single player that has a younger backup behind him.

2) We truly believe Rubio doesn't complement the core of players that surround him and we need someone with a different skill-set (presumably a much better shooting/scoring PG).

I have never been opposed to route #1. Route #2 seems like a more dubious one in that it's hard to come up with a deal that seems to work for both parties and it's also hard to see how Rubio somehow detracts from the other players right now. The much-rumored Rubio-Middleton one didn't go through, but it had me scratching my head as to who the hell would be our starting PG if it did? That would be one step forward, one step backwards in my opinion.

Re: Zach Lavine is pretty good - GDT

Posted: Wed Mar 09, 2016 10:55 pm
by Monster
Q12543 wrote:
thedoper wrote:
Q12543 wrote:
thedoper wrote:
Q12543 wrote:
thedoper wrote:
Brooklyn_Wolves wrote:
thedoper wrote:Basketball Reference has Rubio 289th on their defensive rating stat fyi. Don't really know which is better (or more accurate), but that puts him on par with Derrick Rose in terms of his D at the position. The top 20 has similar names and positions as DRPM accept with the addition of Whiteside as #1 (no wonder ESPN wanted their own stat).


http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_per_poss.html


I hope you realize that your link is listing all NBA players in alphabetic order. :roll:


I should have noted that the columns are sortable for those that aren't used to this technology. Sort the columns based on Defensive rating and find him there.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_per_poss.html#per_poss::31

Edited and did it for you.



You have to be careful using the Basketball Reference defensive rating stat as it relates to individual players. Except for that site, most other places use defensive rating in only a team context and it generally means points allowed per 100 possessions. In fact, even B-ball reference uses the traditional points per 100 possessions allowed in its team rankings and individual player On/Off stats.

Here is the caveat from the b-ball reference glossary on the individual Drtg stat:

"Out of necessity (owing to a lack of defensive data in the basic boxscore), individual Defensive Ratings are heavily influenced by the team's defensive efficiency. They assume that all teammates are equally good (per minute) at forcing non-steal turnovers and non-block misses, as well as assuming that all teammates face the same number of total possessions per minute"

Now, insofar as Rubio is part of a team that happens to sport the second worst team defensive rating in the league, it's easy to see how that spills over into his individual Drtg stat. Now if I thought all of our individual defenders were about equal in terms of their skills and abilities, he would deserve his proportionate share of the poor team performance. But I don't believe that. I think our poor team defensive rating is due largely to a subset of truly terrible defenders, poor coaching, and youth.


I hear you and agree with you analysis of Drtg its shortcomings. My point was that you get a nice top 20 NBA defenders from defensive rating too. What about him being approximately 15th-20th in the league among PGs (equal positioning as defensive rating) in Defensive win shares and in Defensive box plus minus? (I get that we don't win on the win shares bit)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_advanced.html#advanced::21
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_advanced.html#advanced::26

There are other advanced stats placing him where the eye test truly seems to put him. DRPM seems to be the only stat that makes him a dominant defensive PG. I'm fine citing the nuanced problems with certain advanced stats.DRPM has its shortcomings too. DRPM as far as I understand it is and individuals defensive metrics relative to their own team defensive average. This makes sense to inflate Rubios standing since we are obviously complete horseshit defensively in our second unit. The overall point is that I don't see a dominant player in any aspect of Rubio's game. I also don't see a defensive gem in a group of poor defenders. I see a good to average player on both sides of the ball who plays with heart and passion, two things I respect about him.


Mmm, I have him in the top 15 when you look at starting PGs in both DWS and DBPM, but yeah, neither are as kind to him as DRPM. Again, I believe both of these have their flaws.

Frankly, there is a somewhat limited impact a PG can have on a team defense. One thing you will notice about all of these defensive stats is that bigs and then wings tend to dominate the top of each respective stat. The problem with our squad is we have so many weak links defensively, it would really hurt to have yet another one at PG.

I think we can safely say that Rubio is fully capable of being part of an elite defensive unit, just like he's fully capable of being part of an elite offensive unit. He doesn't detract from either objective and therefore is truly a two-way player.

On the other hand, I think we can also safely say that Rubio isn't going to be the lead banana on a truly elite offensive or defensive unit. He is an important seasoning to the main course, if you will. It just won't taste the same without him!


I think we finally agree. Getting to yes is great. So want to upgrade him too them. ;)



There are two scenarios where I would consider trading Rubio:

1) We organically develop a PG behind him that gets good enough to take his place. I doubt it's Tyus Jones, but perhaps it's Kris Dunn or someone else we pick up. Of course, this scenario applies to every single player that has a younger backup behind him.

2) We truly believe Rubio doesn't complement the core of players that surround him and we need someone with a different skill-set (presumably a much better shooting/scoring PG).

I have never been opposed to route #1. Route #2 seems like a more dubious one in that it's hard to come up with a deal that seems to work for both parties and it's also hard to see how Rubio somehow detracts from the other players right now. The much-rumored Rubio-Middleton one didn't go through, but it had me scratching my head as to who the hell would be our starting PG if it did? That would be one step forward, one step backwards in my opinion.


I agree it's one step forward 1 step back but if Milt was interested at all who else was he going to ask for? GF? Parker? I don't think anyone wants Lavine playing PG but adding a shooter and very versatile player in Middleton playing next to Zach would probably at least help. It seems like MCW would have to get moved somewhere I've gotten off that bandwagon but he doesn't suck either.