Minnesota Sports Forum

Kept it under 15 per. Good deal. Go wolves.

thedoper wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 4:02 pm Kept it under 15 per. Good deal. Go wolves.

I had Naz valued between $12-15M, but thought he might command even a little more. There’s triple good news in this signing:

1. First and foremost, we keep a talented young player who looked like he was taking it to the next level before his untimely injury last season. He provides tremendous depth. He showed late last season that he can play with (and actually plays better in my view) along side either KAT or Rudy. I think it’s finally become clear that he’s more of a PF than a center and I think he’ll flourish in more of a PF role playing alongside Rudy or KAT. So I see him helping the team as significant part of the rotation from the beginning. More than that, he’s an insurance policy in the event Rudy or KAT goes down with an injury and he’s also an insurance policy in the event the Wolves front office decides to move on from KAT or Rudy next summer.

2. Second, we signed him at an amount that will allow the Wolves to re-sign NAW and run it back minus Nowell without exceeding the luxury tax threshold.

3. Third, the fact that we signed him at $14M (near the top of my estimated range) tells us that Naz is highly valued around the League. There is simply no way that $14M number is a stab in the dark. TC must have been in close contact with Naz Reid’s agent and was fully aware of the types of offers Naz was likely to get. TC also has lots of contacts and sources around the League to reality-check what he was hearing from Reid’s agent. Knowing how highly valued Naz is around the League confirms what many of us have thought about Naz Reid’s high value on the court to the Wolves, but it also bodes well for the Wolves in the event they decide to trade him down the road.

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 4:53 pm

thedoper wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 4:02 pm Kept it under 15 per. Good deal. Go wolves.

I had Naz valued between $12-15M, but thought he might command even a little more. There’s triple good news in this signing:

1. First and foremost, we keep a talented young player who looked like he was taking it to the next level before his untimely injury last season. He provides tremendous depth. He showed late last season that he can play with (and actually plays better in my view) along side either KAT or Rudy. I think it’s finally become clear that he’s more of a PF than a center and I think he’ll flourish in more of a PF role playing alongside Rudy or KAT. So I see him helping the team as significant part of the rotation from the beginning. More than that, he’s an insurance policy in the event Rudy or KAT goes down with an injury and he’s also an insurance policy in the event the Wolves front office decides to move on from KAT or Rudy next summer.

2. Second, we signed him at an amount that will allow the Wolves to re-sign NAW and run it back minus Nowell without exceeding the luxury tax threshold.

3. Third, the fact that we signed him at $14M (near the top of my estimated range) tells us that Naz is highly valued around the League. There is simply no way that $14M number is a stab in the dark. TC must have been in close contact with Naz Reid’s agent and was fully aware of the types of offers Naz was likely to get. TC also has lots of contacts and sources around the League to reality-check what he was hearing from Reid’s agent. Knowing how highly valued Naz is around the League confirms what many of us have thought about Naz Reid’s high value on the court to the Wolves, but it also bodes well for the Wolves in the event they decide to trade him down the road.

Good stuff, Lip. However, it would have been nice if TC had good sources before he made the Gobert trade to have a "reality check." I felt TC got badly played by Ainge, didn't evaluate Gobert critically enough, fully consider the effects of a complete draining of draft capital and the salary cap implications and Finchy and the ownership just went along with TC (sort of an echo chamber) which led to TC bidding against himself.

KG4Ever wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 5:41 pm

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 4:53 pm

thedoper wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 4:02 pm Kept it under 15 per. Good deal. Go wolves.

I had Naz valued between $12-15M, but thought he might command even a little more. There’s triple good news in this signing:

1. First and foremost, we keep a talented young player who looked like he was taking it to the next level before his untimely injury last season. He provides tremendous depth. He showed late last season that he can play with (and actually plays better in my view) along side either KAT or Rudy. I think it’s finally become clear that he’s more of a PF than a center and I think he’ll flourish in more of a PF role playing alongside Rudy or KAT. So I see him helping the team as significant part of the rotation from the beginning. More than that, he’s an insurance policy in the event Rudy or KAT goes down with an injury and he’s also an insurance policy in the event the Wolves front office decides to move on from KAT or Rudy next summer.

2. Second, we signed him at an amount that will allow the Wolves to re-sign NAW and run it back minus Nowell without exceeding the luxury tax threshold.

3. Third, the fact that we signed him at $14M (near the top of my estimated range) tells us that Naz is highly valued around the League. There is simply no way that $14M number is a stab in the dark. TC must have been in close contact with Naz Reid’s agent and was fully aware of the types of offers Naz was likely to get. TC also has lots of contacts and sources around the League to reality-check what he was hearing from Reid’s agent. Knowing how highly valued Naz is around the League confirms what many of us have thought about Naz Reid’s high value on the court to the Wolves, but it also bodes well for the Wolves in the event they decide to trade him down the road.

Good stuff, Lip. However, it would have been nice if TC had good sources before he made the Gobert trade to have a "reality check." I felt TC got badly played by Ainge, didn't evaluate Gobert critically enough, fully consider the effects of a complete draining of draft capital and the salary cap implications and Finchy and the ownership just went along with TC (sort of an echo chamber) which led to TC bidding against himself.

I agree with you completely on the Gobert deal. They clearly screwed up in their valuation of Rudy’s market value. I think it’s harder to gauge what other other teams are willing to give up for a player than it is to estimate what other teams are willing to pay a player in the market. But there’s no excuse for the way TC got fleeced by Ainge last summer. I have the sense that our front office simply got carried away with the idea of making a splash and getting a big with a big name. TC hadn’t been here long enough to make that sort of move. He needed to take time and settle in before making a move like that. I have a sense that TC and his front office cohorts are acting far more rationally and be far more calculated with their moves since the Gobert deal.

There's a lot of joy on the board about the Naz deal, and to some extent I get it...he took a big leap forward last season as a scorer, and is a good teammate and a guy who is fun to cheer for. But I think most of us here (with the exception of Q and me...and maybe some others) are ignoring the big elephant in the room: The Wolves consistently get outscored when Naz is on the court. On/off numbers are often maligned on boards like these because (like most stats) they are mostly meaningless in a small sample size. But when an NBA player puts up consistently poor on/off numbers over a 3-year period, I find it foolish to ignore. Naz's on/off numbers for the last three seasons are a consistent negative of 6.5, 6.7 and 7.8. You would have to search pretty hard to find a player with comparably poor numbers the past three years...nobody on the Wolves has been as consistently negative. And since wins in NBA games are still measured by outscoring the opponent, I think we have to analyze why Naz performs so poorly under this stat. Here's my analysis:

A productively positive NBA big man is expected to do basically four things: score efficiently, move the ball and get his teammates involved, rebound, and play defense. The first of those four things is the one that most fans focus on, and it also happens to be the one aspect that Naz excels in. His ability to put the ball on the floor and get to the basket is borderline elite, and his 34% 3-point percentage is not bad for a big man...his 61.7 TS % is very good. And because he excels in this one aspect, he is a popular player...and he has been rewarded with a nice contract. But unfortunately, he is far below average in the other key requirements of a productive NBA big. The ball is very sticky when he gets it and he really doesn't get his teammates involved on offense, he is a below average rebounder, and he is not considered to be a very good defender...either inside or on the perimeter. So when you're below average in three key elements, it's not difficult to understand why the Wolves perform so much better when Naz is off the court compared to when he is on.

So now TC has signed Naz for three years for $14 million per, and I would expect most of the Wolves fan base to be happy about it because he is a scorer. But with the impending 2024-5 second apron crisis, I am hoping that TC has a plan for extricating himself from a contract that might force himself to jettison a player or two who are much more valuable than Naz.

Glimmer of hope? While Naz has been a net negative for this team the past three years, he's still young. Maybe he can continue to take the positive strides I believe he made last year in scoring, while also developing some other elements of his game that can make him a positive contributor. It could happen, but I'm not very optimistic...after four years in the league I think we know what Naz's drawbacks are. I'm happy to have him back on the roster to see if he can become a more positive contributor, but my guess is that TC has a plan to unload him mid-season. We'll have to see how it pans out.

I can't quite put my finger on it FNG. All the other advanced metrics has him in the average to slightly above average zone. But yeah, he has put up a poor net rating and even worse net on/off rating for three straight years now.

I definitely think his ability to defend the paint without fouling (and some of it is the officials disrespecting him) is a big, big issue. He has a higher foul rate than either Jaden or KAT. Not good. There is the mediocre rebounding and iffy passing that you also cited. Ironically, he was a damn good passer in the G-League a few years ago.

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 9:59 pm I can't quite put my finger on it FNG. All the other advanced metrics has him in the average to slightly above average zone. But yeah, he has put up a poor net rating and even worse net on/off rating for three straight years now.

I definitely think his ability to defend the paint without fouling (and some of it is the officials disrespecting him) is a big, big issue. He has a higher foul rate than either Jaden or KAT. Not good. There is the mediocre rebounding and iffy passing that you also cited. Ironically, he was a damn good passer in the G-League a few years ago.

Yeah, some of the deficiencies are why I didn't have a strong opinion on re-signing Naz. But it is damn impressive how much Naz has improved since he entered the league as an undrafted FA. And if you assume he will continue the same devotion to improving his game, those deficiencies could certainly improve.

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 9:59 pm I can't quite put my finger on it FNG. All the other advanced metrics has him in the average to slightly above average zone. But yeah, he has put up a poor net rating and even worse net on/off rating for three straight years now.

I definitely think his ability to defend the paint without fouling (and some of it is the officials disrespecting him) is a big, big issue. He has a higher foul rate than either Jaden or KAT. Not good. There is the mediocre rebounding and iffy passing that you also cited. Ironically, he was a damn good passer in the G-League a few years ago.

I put more stock in the advanced metrics than in the net rating and net on/off and I suspect the Wolves front office and coaching staff do too. For me, it’s the eye test and Naz Reid’s trajectory. I see a player with tremendous talent who is just starting to put it all together. Furthermore, this is an instance where we need to put some trust in TC and the coaching staff. I wasn’t impressed with TC’s deal-making skills last summer, but I haven’t seen anything to suggest he isn’t the excellent judge of young talent he was reputed to be when Lore and A-Rod hired him. Finch obviously thinks highly of Naz as well. They’ve watched him up close in practice day after day. They’re aware of all the stats we look at, but obviously have access and insights we don’t. They thought enough of him to make keeping him a priority. Note that this wasn’t a close call for them. From the moment last season ended, TC has been adamant about the team’s desire to re-sign Naz. All of that plus Reid’s advanced stats, his age, and his trajectory (especially the stretch last season before his hand injury), give me a lot of confidence in the decision to give Naz the contract he just got.

60WinTim wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 10:11 pm

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 9:59 pm I can't quite put my finger on it FNG. All the other advanced metrics has him in the average to slightly above average zone. But yeah, he has put up a poor net rating and even worse net on/off rating for three straight years now.

I definitely think his ability to defend the paint without fouling (and some of it is the officials disrespecting him) is a big, big issue. He has a higher foul rate than either Jaden or KAT. Not good. There is the mediocre rebounding and iffy passing that you also cited. Ironically, he was a damn good passer in the G-League a few years ago.

Yeah, some of the deficiencies are why I didn't have a strong opinion on re-signing Naz. But it is damn impressive how much Naz has improved since he entered the league as an undrafted FA. And if you assume he will continue the same devotion to improving his game, those deficiencies could certainly improve.

Hope so. I looked through some of his player pairings and minutes played with other players last year and nothing stood out to me that helped me excuse his poor net rating, like "OMG, he played all his minutes with Nowell, DLO, and Forbes!".

In fact his +/- when paired with either Gobert or Kyle Anderson was HORRIBLE. So unfortunately the pattern tends to be that when guys that are generally pluses (like Anderson) are paired with Naz, they become minuses!

But the guy can go to work offensively and we do need that punch off the bench. May be things click this year for him.

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 10:33 pm

60WinTim wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 10:11 pm

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 9:59 pm I can't quite put my finger on it FNG. All the other advanced metrics has him in the average to slightly above average zone. But yeah, he has put up a poor net rating and even worse net on/off rating for three straight years now.

I definitely think his ability to defend the paint without fouling (and some of it is the officials disrespecting him) is a big, big issue. He has a higher foul rate than either Jaden or KAT. Not good. There is the mediocre rebounding and iffy passing that you also cited. Ironically, he was a damn good passer in the G-League a few years ago.

Yeah, some of the deficiencies are why I didn't have a strong opinion on re-signing Naz. But it is damn impressive how much Naz has improved since he entered the league as an undrafted FA. And if you assume he will continue the same devotion to improving his game, those deficiencies could certainly improve.

Hope so. I looked through some of his player pairings and minutes played with other players last year and nothing stood out to me that helped me excuse his poor net rating, like "OMG, he played all his minutes with Nowell, DLO, and Forbes!".

In fact his +/- when paired with either Gobert or Kyle Anderson was HORRIBLE. So unfortunately the pattern tends to be that when guys that are generally pluses (like Anderson) are paired with Naz, they become minuses!

But the guy can go to work offensively and we do need that punch off the bench. May be things click this year for him.

So I’ve been torn on the Naz thing for years and I do the “how many possessions has the opponents scored in a row” when Naz came in. The thing that gives me some hope is when Naz started this year in the Conley or Dlo/Ant/Mcdaniels/Slow Mo lineups the wolves were really good. They were +5.5 per 100 possessions what was in the 85th percentile of the league. When he got to play center and not play with Nowell the wolves got outscored by a little bit but his top 7 lineups were positive when it comes to minutes.

Once again I am worried that Naz just became Gorgui now after he got paid and becomes a negative asset but I’m a fan of watching basketball and I like Naz and I hope he keeps improving and exceeds that contract