Rob Dillingham

[Lipoli390]

Just bumping this thread since it reflects some of our thoughts soon after drafting Rob and watching him in his first summer league.

Here were his stats in last year's five summer league games:
30 MPG/13.6 pts/36% FG/31% 3PT/4.2 rebs/7.6 assists/1 stl/3.4 TOs

Here are his stats through two summer league games this year:
30 MPG/15 pts/35% FG/42% 3PT/3.5 rebs/7.5 assists/2.5 stls/5.5 TOs

Still struggling to finish around the paint and still struggling with TOs, but mixing in plenty of assists as well.

For what it's worth, not much has changed.....Still three more games to go though.

I was there live last year but I’ve had to get by this year just watching on TV. Obviously, Dilly’s 3-point percentage has improved substantially as verified by the stats. My eye test tells me he’s defending much better this year than last. So I’d say he’s shown significant improvement. Still too many turnovers and struggles finishing at the rim. And only a little progress running the offense. He’ll have to continue working on those areas.

[Q-is-here]

One thing I would think most of us agree on when it comes to Dillingham is that he doesn't look like a starting NBA PG yet. After that, we can quibble about what kind of role off the bench he should have. To me he looks like a guy you put in for the 12 MPG your stud starting PG needs a breather, i.e. very limited role. But Conley shouldn't be playing more than 25 MPG at most, so I suspect we will see Ant and DDV paired up quite a lot down the stretch of close games.

For those looking for hope, let me throw out four names: Steve Nash, Kyle Lowry, Jalen Brunson, and Fred VanVleet. None of these guys became NBA starting point guards until they were age 24 or 25. All of them spent at least three seasons coming off the bench. Of course, none of them were drafted 8th either, so they kind of came into the league with the expectation that they would start their careers coming off the bench.

This process just might take longer than expected with Dillingham.

[Leado01]

AND all of the outstanding pg's you just mentioned had cheap 2nd contracts!

[AbeVigodaLive]

For those looking for hope, let me throw out four names: Steve Nash, Kyle Lowry, Jalen Brunson, and Fred VanVleet. None of these guys became NBA starting point guards until they were age 24 or 25. All of them spent at least three seasons coming off the bench. Of course, none of them were drafted 8th either, so they kind of came into the league with the expectation that they would start their careers coming off the bench.

This process just might take longer than expected with Dillingham.

In addition, those guys weren't expected to be one of the make-or-break reasons for a very good team's success.

The Wolves have A LOT riding on Dillingham's improvement this season. Being the worst guy in the rotation by a significant margin simply won't be good enough.

For that reason, I don't see how the Wolves wouldn't bring in an insurance policy at the point either before the season or IF things go poorly with Dillingham. It would be tough for the young kid (and probably unfair) moving forward if a veteran-laden team knew he was the primary reason they underachieved as a team.

[thedoper]

I think we have to take our lumps and play him if he is going to work out. We arent winning a championship with Conley getting 25 mins. I know we arent winning a championship with Dilly as the starter either. But unless we make a big move for a pg (Jrue at the trade deadline?) we need Dillingham to get significant minutes. All those great pgs started getting minutes year 2, we need to do the same. Dilly needs 20-25 per game to see what we got and for his growth.

[BeenLurkin]

I rewatched game 3 specifically watching Rob. I did this because to my eyes his flashes are brilliant and his lapses are normal for a 19 year old who has had such a small amount of experience compared to someone we might expect to be drafted at 8 overall and be a second year player in the NBA. He played in half of the games and averaged less than a quarter of play in his rookie season. In college he started 1 game and averaged the 4th most minutes of guard play. All of this imo sets expectations low except for his draft position and what was spent to get that pick.
It is human nature to allow expectations to cloud reality so the dissonance in what everyone seems to “see” with this kid verses what I have seen has made me feel like I’m the crazy one.
So today I spent a bit of time with a note pad and watched every possession of game three placing pluses and minus’s in columns. It’s a completely subjective eye test and obviously no one here should value my opinion but I have watched this team since its first year. I watch most games either live or the next day on replay. What I came away with was an overwhelming amount of pluses, easily a 2:1 ratio of obviously positive things he did vs obvious mistakes. 4 of the mistakes I put a check next to indicating he gave above average effort but had a poor and avoidable result.
On offense his biggest weakness wasn’t what I expected. He made 7 shots at the rim, he made reverse layups, he had a lob off a fantastically executed give and go with Joan, he had a floater that would make Mike Conley proud. His weakness was mid range shots and jump shots in general. But he recognized that enough to attempt 0 threes. He facilitated like we have wanted and how the coaches say they are expecting him to do during these games. And his turnovers were not ball handling related. His handle in traffic is legit. He was constantly dealing with full court pressure and threatened doubles to which he responded by getting off ball and making himself available and coming back to screeners.
On defense he was glue. His closeouts were lighting quick and he goes over or attempts to go over every screen. He gets in passing lanes without leaking too far off his man. He gets hands on the ball of driving opponents which lead to most of his fouls. And most glaringly he tries as hard as you can ask. He got a bit lazy in the 4th but the game was in hand and he didn’t need to give it all at that point defensively.
Overall I came away with the belief that he deserves the longer leash that our inactivity in finding a back up PG seems to signal. We don’t need him to score but he absolutely can. We don’t need him to be a lock down on ball defender but he has that mentality. What he looks like to me is someone trying to straddle the line between being Mike Conely and forging his own style. And I hope he gets the opportunity to prove me right or wrong this season.

[FNG]

Good post, ben lurkin, and thanks for doing some detailed work on Rob's game yesterday. I guess the 2 to 1 ratio is about what I saw also. He's going to struggle at times this season, but I expect to see enormous growth from his as the season progresses. I'm thinking he gets 10-12 MPG early in the season, but more later is Finchy gets more confident in what he can do.

[BeenLurkin]

One other thing that was also mentioned earlier that was obvious was Lenny being a garbage man. He feasted on the glass and on turnover scenarios either causing them and passing ahead or leaking out and getting paid off. Two of Robs assists were drop offs to Miller at the top of the key for threes. Good work by Rob on these by running under Lenny after the pass to clear him with a bit of a legal moving “screen”

[BeenLurkin]

In further defense of our level of expectations for Dilly….Joan Beringer played more games and more minutes than Dilly last season….albeit for different leagues but reps are important. We are all ready to give Joan (drafted only 8 picks or so after Dilly) all the rope while it seems like it’s Dilly’s make or break moment. Circumstances matter but it’s not Dillinghams fault that Mike Conely is old. Or that roster construction makes it very tough to bring in a high quality PG backup. The Staff and players all seem very positive about Robs growth.

[Q-is-here]

I rewatched game 3 specifically watching Rob. I did this because to my eyes his flashes are brilliant and his lapses are normal for a 19 year old who has had such a small amount of experience compared to someone we might expect to be drafted at 8 overall and be a second year player in the NBA. He played in half of the games and averaged less than a quarter of play in his rookie season. In college he started 1 game and averaged the 4th most minutes of guard play. All of this imo sets expectations low except for his draft position and what was spent to get that pick.
It is human nature to allow expectations to cloud reality so the dissonance in what everyone seems to “see” with this kid verses what I have seen has made me feel like I’m the crazy one.
So today I spent a bit of time with a note pad and watched every possession of game three placing pluses and minus’s in columns. It’s a completely subjective eye test and obviously no one here should value my opinion but I have watched this team since its first year. I watch most games either live or the next day on replay. What I came away with was an overwhelming amount of pluses, easily a 2:1 ratio of obviously positive things he did vs obvious mistakes. 4 of the mistakes I put a check next to indicating he gave above average effort but had a poor and avoidable result.
On offense his biggest weakness wasn’t what I expected. He made 7 shots at the rim, he made reverse layups, he had a lob off a fantastically executed give and go with Joan, he had a floater that would make Mike Conley proud. His weakness was mid range shots and jump shots in general. But he recognized that enough to attempt 0 threes. He facilitated like we have wanted and how the coaches say they are expecting him to do during these games. And his turnovers were not ball handling related. His handle in traffic is legit. He was constantly dealing with full court pressure and threatened doubles to which he responded by getting off ball and making himself available and coming back to screeners.
On defense he was glue. His closeouts were lighting quick and he goes over or attempts to go over every screen. He gets in passing lanes without leaking too far off his man. He gets hands on the ball of driving opponents which lead to most of his fouls. And most glaringly he tries as hard as you can ask. He got a bit lazy in the 4th but the game was in hand and he didn’t need to give it all at that point defensively.
Overall I came away with the belief that he deserves the longer leash that our inactivity in finding a back up PG seems to signal. We don’t need him to score but he absolutely can. We don’t need him to be a lock down on ball defender but he has that mentality. What he looks like to me is someone trying to straddle the line between being Mike Conely and forging his own style. And I hope he gets the opportunity to prove me right or wrong this season.

Well, we DO value your opinion because this is the type of deeper analysis that is very helpful. It's appreciated.

I think a lot of the positives you bring out is reflected in the fact the team is 3-0 in Summer League, he's had a positive +/- every game, and to back that up he had a positive net rating with the Wolves last season, albeit barely. The point being he's not doing a bunch of horrible things out there in terms of missed assignments, chucking up bad shots, etc. His ability to push the pace does lead to some easy buckets and defensively he's at least being a pest out there.

But it does take some real squinting to see someone that can eventually close a Western Conference Finals game as the PG against an OKC or Houston or Denver, whether it's next season or sometime thereafter.