Minnesota Sports Forum

FNG wrote: ↑Tue Nov 14, 2023 5:53 pm

Wolvesfan21 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 14, 2023 5:03 pm

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:19 pm I've been in treatment for shock since the news hit until now. One of the other patients down the hall created a disturbance and I used that opportunity to escape. So here I am, back home and trying to accept what just happened. I still have this sliver of hope that Rudy won't pass his physical and the deal will fall through. But I'm ready to admit that is simply self-delusion.

So what do I think of the deal? I want to restrain myself because what I think of the deal can't be fully expressed in words. Apparently, I was screaming the name Herschel Walker in the middle of First Avenue in front of Target Center when the authorities whisked me away to a treatment facility. I think I'm better now -- really I am! Well, now it's on to discussing the deal.

My first thought, other than WTF, is that this is the sort of deal you do if your team is mired in mediocrity with no sign of progress towards success. Even then, you CONSIDER doing this deal only if you are getting a LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Shaq, Kobe or Dwayne Wade IN THEIR PRIME. And even then, you probably don't do the deal unless you're in an attractive destination market that gives you an edge in attracting supporting talent and recovering if it all goes bad.

The Wolves were not mired in mediocrity with no sign of progress towards success when Connelly came here. We were a 46-win team that was bound to get better through the improvement of key young players and likely getting better through strategic draft picks and other acquisitions, including Kyle Anderson. And while Gobert is a great defensive player who sets terrific picks, he's simply not in the same category as any of the hall-of-fame players I mentioned. If he's still in his prime, it's the tail end. Finally, we're obviously not a destination market and when it goes bad and you've depleted your draft stock already, you're screwed if your a mid-market, cold weather team like the Wolves.

My second thought is that Connelly's line that there no short cuts to success was just a line. This is the ultimate short cut. Put another way, this was a hale Mary that wasn't necessary. And it was a hale Mary to the 30 yard line, not the goal line. The goal line is a Kevin Durant or Kobe in his prime. That's not Gobert, no matter how much you like his game. This is not the way the most successful mid-market teams achieve success. They don't offload all these players and future picks to get the final piece. The Spurs never made a move like this. Nor did the Warriors or the Bucks. The Bucks went all in to get Jrue Holiday, but they gave up nothing close to what the Wolves just gave up. Golden State had some success with their home grown threesome and then added Iggy, which was key to them winning their first championship. But they didn't trade away half their picks over the next decade to get him. They didn't even give away what the Wolves just gave away to get Durant in his prime.

Imagine how you'll feel if Gobert or KAT does down with a season-ending injury. Then we're in the lottery and that pick goes to a conference rival, this Jazz, in what's expected to be one of the most talent-rich drafts in memory. You might remember when David Robinson was lost to a season-ending injury. Well, he was part of a smart organization that had their first-round draft pick that year, which they used to select Tim Duncan.

Just when I thought we had a front office that had the good sense to keep building on the prior regimes record of success with a prudent, rational plan to build a sustainable winner without taking short cuts, we get this. It's just the fate of being a Wolves fan I guess.

Yes, the Wolves might make the NBA finals in one of the next four years as a result of this deal. But I don't think they will. I have my doubts about whether they'll make the Conference finals because I don't think the addition of Gobert will have the synergistic impact that our front office appears to believe it will have. If the Wolves do make the NBA or Conference Finals I suspect the success will be short-lived.

Ultimately, this deal suggests to me a front office that is tone deaf. There was a strong positive vibe developing around this team as they were building around a young, impressive core that had a surprisingly successful run last season with all the key players coming back, some high-floor draft picks added and the acquisition of Kyle Anderson. And there were undoubtedly more opportunities to further improve the team through far more measured, but effective, deals to acquire a Myles Turner, Clint Capela, Richaun Holmes or perhaps another needle-moving big. A huge part of attracting, energizing and keeping a fan base is the journey -- the upward incremental climb to success. I experienced that growing up in Chicago as MJ, Scottie and Horace Grant developed together and became champions. Warriors fans experienced it with Curry, Green, and Thompson. Spurs fans experienced it with Duncan, Parker and Ginobili. The list goes on along a similar path unless you live in LA, Miami or New York.

I know there are some, perhaps most, on this board who like the deal. And there are also those who will reconcile themselves to the deal and rationalize because there's really no other choice if you're committed to remaining a Wolves fan. At some point, I'll have to reconcile myself to this deal, but I won't rationalize to the point of believing it was the right move to make. It was a terrible deal to make and I'll never change my view on that. Meanwhile, I'll continue to follow the team and I'll go to games because I've already renewed my season tickets. And this team might, in fact should, make the playoffs and advance at least one round if not two. That will be great. But I'm not going to enjoy this season or the lead up to it nearly as much as I would have if Connelly had stayed true to his word about not taking short cuts. He's just taken the ultimate short cut at an unprecedented scale in the NBA. It was both unnecessary and reckless in my view. It's only corollary is the Herschel Walker trade. That's the memory that got me temporary committed to a facility earlier today. . I just hope we don't see a similar result in this instance.

Rudy is fully healthy now (knock on wood) and what we were (I was at least) expecting last year. He never looked right with his bad back. He just couldn't move. Maybe you'll come around on this trade. The best trade in MN sports history.

It's difficult to make final conclusions about a trade in the first year...not impossible, but difficult. I don't think anyone here could rationally conclude that this was a good deal for the Wolves after the first season. But how do we view it now, with Gobert anchoring the best defense in the NBA and already in the conversation for DPOY (yes, I know it's early)? So what did we give up to get a player who could potentially be DPOY this year?

Kessler, Beverley, Beasley and Vanderbilt have a combined VORP of ZERO this year. And then there are the four picks, the next three of which are quite likely to be very late first rounders. Take a look at the players drafted in the 20s this year, and prepare to be underwhelmed. Sure, there are exceptions to the rule, but late 20s draft picks generally don't pan out.

Conventional wisdom says the team that ends up with the best player generally wins the trade. Not always true, but I would say it's true more often than not. I don't think there is any doubt who the most impactful player is in this trade.

Put a different way: how would we feel if the Wolves had traded the same package for a player who had been an offensive POY of the year three separate times and was again in the conversation for OPOY. Think about some names that fit in that category, and I think we would have been ecstatic about that deal. I'm not arguing that Utah didn't end up with a lot of assets...they did. And also many will make the argument that an offensive star is more important than a defensive star. I value defense, so I would not make that argument. And the Wolves early 7-2 record demonstrates the importance of defense.

So the deal looked bad last year, and looks a lot better this year. Still too early to conclude though, I think. And if the Wolves don't continue playing at the level they are playing at now and don't at least challenge for a championship in the next three years, or if Utah grabs a Jokic-level player with one of our picks, that will swing the trade way back in Utah's favor. So far, the have only drafted Keyonte George, and his ORtg of 108 against a horrid DRtg of 125 tells me he's probably not going to be Jokic.

So, if nothing else, I say Rudy's resurgence this year at least makes this a talker again.