Around the League 2022-23

[Lipoli390]

I watched the Knicks-Celtics game last night. The Knicks were really impressive as they won their 9th in a row. Quickly is really good. Randle has been putting up great numbers this season in a winning cause, but his low basketball IQ was on full display last night. The Celtics did not look like a team poised to win an NBA championship.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

Damn grizzlies blow a huge lead against the clippers

That was a bummer. I didn't think the Grizzlies could win that one without Ja, but they almost did. The Wolves need to keep winning. Other than winning our games, whether we ultimately secure the 6th slot will depend largely on the fate of the Clippers, Mavs and Warriors.

Among the truths of modern NBA basketball...

- If teams want to win games late in the season... they most likely will.
- Because teams that want to lose games late in the season... definitely will.

I get where you're coming from. And 3-4 years ago, I would have shouted "Amen!" But I respectfully disagree this year. Despite Wembanyama looking like . . . just, oh my god, that dude is gonna be amazing[/I], there are really only three blatantly tanking teams this year--Houston, San Antonio, and Detroit. I could definitely see Charlotte joining them, and maybe the Magic at the very end, but otherwise, every team out there is trying.

I chalk that up to a few things.

First, the League flattened the lottery odds, which has made tanking riskier because teams with terrible records don't have such good odds of a top pick.

Second, the League's new play-in tournament has incentivized all teams within striking distance of the top 10 to win down the stretch, while adding extra incentives to teams to fight for the 7-8 spot for the advantage in the play-in, and to fight for the 6 seed to avoid the play-in altogether. That's just been an awesome addition.

Third, teams just seem to be deciding not to tank like before in a way that seems to go beyond even the obvious changes in incentives the league has made. More owners, GMs, coaches, and players seem to be making decisions to collectively say, fuck it, let's go for it. Not all of them, obviously. But more than a few years ago. And I think at least in the front offices and among the coaching staffs, there's potentially a hidden reason for this. I suspect that the same analytics crowd (think Hinke) that once crunched the numbers and concluded that it was best to tank has now crunched the numbers and come to a different conclusion--it's most often best NOT to tank. In part, this is because the league's flattened lottery odds have literally changed the equations, but I also think it's because teams have even more numbers about the value of draft picks to crunch--it's been 10 years of modern draft data since Hinkie began "the process." And I bet that those numbers have highlighted how much more variance and therefore risk there is in getting talent (and ultimately wins) out of draft picks than the consensus seemed to be at some point in the past. There was always a degree of hubris involved. GMs probably had access to data that indicated what percentage likelihood a #3 pick was to become an All-Star, etc., and, recognizing how low that percentage might have been compared to how we value those picks in the future, reckoned that THEY would make better decisions than all past front offices. This is the same effect whereby 95% of people conclude that they are above average, even though that is obviously not true. I suspect a few more front offices are starting to really recognize that they DO need to value the numbers, and the numbers show that higher draft picks, while certainly better than lower draft picks, still have an incredibly high degree of volatility. I think teams are starting to realize that tanking and collecting high draft picks is actually a more risky way to try to build a team than the consensus used to suggest.

Think about the Wolves for example. Whether intentionally or by accident, we essentially tanked away about 15 years. Fifteen freakin' years of high draft picks! And while we have all sat here and trashed GMs for botching those picks (sometimes deservedly so!), it's not logical to think that OUR GMs were collectively so much worse than every other front office in the league. The more logical conclusion, which I bet is borne out by statistics, is that our bad drafting was probably closer to league average than we'd like to admit and that draft picks are just more risky than most people think--that is, they are much less likely to lead to a star than we want to believe, and much more likely to lead to a bench player or a bust. Teams have all this data now, along with more powerful algorithms to crunch these numbers. And they've got another 10 years of data since Hinkie. And yes, the league has forced them to change the equations (which Silver deserves credit for, as much as people might bash him--I think a bit unfairly--for the load management thing). But I do honestly think the nerds out there have also kind of realized that tanking was always riskier than we thought it was 10 years ago, or even 5 years ago.

This is speculation on my part. I don't have a bunch of algorithms crunching numbers here. But these front offices do. More now than ever before. And would you look at that? Many more of them seem to be deciding NOT to tank, even in a year in which there DOES seem to be a superstar like Wembanyama out there. I gotta think that it's in part because the nerds have increasingly been concluding that tanking was never quite such a statistically defensible strategy as people once thought.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I'd just say we'll need to monitor the situation.

For example, I think Portland loses a 1st rd pick if it makes the playoffs. If Lillard misses a couple of games, or the team struggles a bit more and falls further out... when do they throw in the proverbial towel?

Utah and OKC are interesting teams because both have SO MANY upcoming picks, but have no real expectations to make the playoffs right now. One of them still might make it anyway... if they want to.

We simply don't know for sure which teams will find themselves in situations where they won't care about the playoffs for a couple more weeks. But there will be more teams joining the tanking (or simply not caring) fray. And when they do... they will lose games quite easily down the stretch.




[Note: This year's Timberwolves Grand Tanking award goes to the San Antonio Spurs. Even though they recently broke a 16-game losing streak (and a 1 - 21 stretch) with back-to-back wins... they promptly lost by 12 and 32 points to the woeful Rockets to basically catch them and the Pistons for worst record. They have a 6-game home stretch coming up, then mostly road games. It's gonna be ugly.]

[Lipoli390]

Grizzlies beat the Warriors 131-110 tonight without Morant or Clarke. They are one tough group. Also a good night for former Wolves players who now play for the Jazz. Kessler had 10 rebounds, 3 blocks and 13 points on 5-5 FG shooting and 3-3 free-throw shooting. He was a +15. Nothing new for Kessler. But what caught my eye was Kris Dunn who had 12 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals, shooting 5-9 from the field. Good to see him still in the league and playing well.

[Lipoli390]

James Wiseman had 16 points and 13 rebounds last night. Good for him. He's had a rough start to his NBA career, but maybe he'll eventually prove worthy of his #2 draft slot.

The Grizzlies won without their best player and another key player last night. Similarly, the Bucks won without Giannis. Testament to how good those two teams are.

[FNG]

James Wiseman had 16 points and 13 rebounds last night. Good for him. He's had a rough start to his NBA career, but maybe he'll eventually prove worthy of his #2 draft slot.

The Grizzlies won without their best player and another key player last night. Similarly, the Bucks won without Giannis. Testament to how good those two teams are.

Yeah, Wiseman has had a tough start to his career, so it's been nice to see him have a good stretch with the Pistons...as I mentioned a few days ago, they are a team to keep an eye on if Wiseman and Cunningham can stay healthy and they adda nice draft pick (like Victor!). I think LaMelo would have to fall apart though for James to ever have a chance of justifying his #2 slot. More likely if he can stay healthy, his ceiling is a serviceable starting center, but not a star. Let's hope his injuries are behind him (especially now that he is in the East).

Yes, Giannis was out last night, but Brooklyn was missing almost EVERYONE! Claxton, Dinwiddie, Simmons, O'Neal and Johnson all missed last night, and are listed as out tonight also. Brooklyn is also playing back to back, although their "starters" didn't play many minutes last night after falling behind by 17 in the first quarter. This is one we need to win tonight, so let's hope McDeeee can shut down the marvelous Bridges.

[FNG]

Update on Brooklyn. Last night, they had five key players missing, and they were all listed as OUT just a couple hours. But everyone but Simmons has magically healed, and only Simmons is now listed as OUT...the others aren't even on the list. Tonight's game just got a lot tougher.

[60WinTim]

Well, it was already tough... Eastern Conference teams seem to have our number!

Our next seven games are all against the Eastern Conference. Tonight would be a good time to figure it out!

[Phenom]

Well, it was already tough... Eastern Conference teams seem to have our number!

Our next seven games are all against the Eastern Conference. Tonight would be a good time to figure it out!

A win also moves the Wolves into the 5th spot in the West. A loss puts them 10th in the loss column. They really need to make some space over Dallas, Lakers, and Pels.

[FNG]

Tough to celebrate D'Angelo's great game last night when we're in a dogfight with the Lakers, but it's also impossible to ignore, as he had one of those 4th quarter explosions that we loved when we benefitted from them. The other TimberLakers were terrible ( a combined -31 with 6 turnovers!), but DLo won the game with a brilliant 4th quarter. He was the only starter with a positive +/-, 15 points better than the next best starter. If this becomes a regular thing, we will know the Wolves are clearly cursed!