Minnesota Sports Forum

Camden wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:I really don't care what he makes. Every team has overpaid players and eventually those contracts run out. What i care about is the inconsistency, the durability, and the lack of 2-way ability. The things that had him sitting on the bench while we went down at home to Memphis. We need to be better. We need a PG who we can afford to put on the opposing teams point guard. It's up to management to find that player, and until then, we have to leverage DLO's strengths while overcoming his weaknesses.

Fair enough, but you should also be able to understand and even admit that that player might not be available right now either by trade, free agency, or the draft, and the current alternatives to D'Angelo Russell on the roster are not upgrades in any sense. I'd double down on that considering this was an uncharacteristically poor season for him shooting the basketball.

In my opinion, trade talks concerning Russell have no real legs until there's some kind of reporting concerning the contract demands and negotiations between his side and the Timberwolves' front office. We're essentially just spinning the tires.

Camden wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:I really don't care what he makes. Every team has overpaid players and eventually those contracts run out. What i care about is the inconsistency, the durability, and the lack of 2-way ability. The things that had him sitting on the bench while we went down at home to Memphis. We need to be better. We need a PG who we can afford to put on the opposing teams point guard. It's up to management to find that player, and until then, we have to leverage DLO's strengths while overcoming his weaknesses.

Fair enough, but you should also be able to understand and even admit that that player might not be available right now either by trade, free agency, or the draft, and the current alternatives to D'Angelo Russell on the roster are not upgrades in any sense. I'd double down on that considering this was an uncharacteristically poor season for him shooting the basketball. I'd double down on that considering this was an uncharacteristically poor season for him shooting the basketball.

In my opinion, trade talks concerning Russell have no real legs until there's some kind of reporting concerning the contract demands and negotiations between his side and the Timberwolves' front office. We're essentially just spinning the tires.

Carlos Danger wrote:

Camden wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:I really don't care what he makes. Every team has overpaid players and eventually those contracts run out. What i care about is the inconsistency, the durability, and the lack of 2-way ability. The things that had him sitting on the bench while we went down at home to Memphis. We need to be better. We need a PG who we can afford to put on the opposing teams point guard. It's up to management to find that player, and until then, we have to leverage DLO's strengths while overcoming his weaknesses.

Fair enough, but you should also be able to understand and even admit that that player might not be available right now either by trade, free agency, or the draft, and the current alternatives to D'Angelo Russell on the roster are not upgrades in any sense. I'd double down on that considering this was an uncharacteristically poor season for him shooting the basketball. I'd double down on that considering this was an uncharacteristically poor season for him shooting the basketball.

In my opinion, trade talks concerning Russell have no real legs until there's some kind of reporting concerning the contract demands and negotiations between his side and the Timberwolves' front office. We're essentially just spinning the tires.

Was it an uncharacteristically poor shooting season for DLO shooting though? In three seasons with the Wolves, his FG% is .418. He shot .411 this past season. If you look at his career, he's never fluctuated much. His lowest season was .405 and his highest was .434. But the .434 was his All Star year - which now appears to be the one off. I think it would be risky to believe he's going to be a significantly better shooter at this point.

Camden wrote:

Carlos Danger wrote:

Camden wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:I really don't care what he makes. Every team has overpaid players and eventually those contracts run out. What i care about is the inconsistency, the durability, and the lack of 2-way ability. The things that had him sitting on the bench while we went down at home to Memphis. We need to be better. We need a PG who we can afford to put on the opposing teams point guard. It's up to management to find that player, and until then, we have to leverage DLO's strengths while overcoming his weaknesses.

Fair enough, but you should also be able to understand and even admit that that player might not be available right now either by trade, free agency, or the draft, and the current alternatives to D'Angelo Russell on the roster are not upgrades in any sense. I'd double down on that considering this was an uncharacteristically poor season for him shooting the basketball. I'd double down on that considering this was an uncharacteristically poor season for him shooting the basketball.

In my opinion, trade talks concerning Russell have no real legs until there's some kind of reporting concerning the contract demands and negotiations between his side and the Timberwolves' front office. We're essentially just spinning the tires.

Was it an uncharacteristically poor shooting season for DLO shooting though? In three seasons with the Wolves, his FG% is .418. He shot .411 this past season. If you look at his career, he's never fluctuated much. His lowest season was .405 and his highest was .434. But the .434 was his All Star year - which now appears to be the one off. I think it would be risky to believe he's going to be a significantly better shooter at this point.

Yes, it was an uncharacteristically poor shooting season for D'Angelo Russell. I also don't think field goal percentage illustrates the entire picture. Consider the following:

Russell shot 34.0-percent from three-point range this season in 65 games. In the 168 games that he played in over the three seasons prior to 2021-22, he shot 37.2-percent from three-point range -- 36.9, 36.7, 38.7 over those seasons, respectively. That's not on low volume either. That's on 1,376 attempts (or 8.2 per game).

Russell also took a step back in mid-range efficiency. He made just 39.6-percent of shots attempted beyond 16-feet but still inside the three-point line. This is an area of the floor that he has typically thrived in. Before this season, he made those shots at a 42.3-percent clip for his career and 44.5-percent over the last three seasons.

Furthermore, Russell only made 34.4-percent of his catch-and-shoot three-point attempts this past season on 4.0 attempts per game, or just under one-third of his shot attempts this season . Over the last three seasons, he made 39.4-percent in 2018, 39.1-percent in 2019, and 39.1-percent in 2020 on these shots. He had never shot below 36.3-percent on catch-and-shoot threes in his career until this season.

It's inexplicable really how up and down, hot and cold Russell's shot-making was this season, and that's while acknowledging he's typically streaky anyways. Normally, it's a matter of he can't miss or he's average and not he's above average or he can't make anything, period. This season was an outlier for him shooting the basketball, which is unquestionably a huge element of his game.

What's the cause of this? I really can't say for certain. I do think the change in basketball may have had something to do with it, and perhaps Russell was dealing with more injury issues than we know about, but the bottom line is that he has to hit more shots like he has for the majority of his career and the most recent seasons of his prime.

monsterpile wrote:Fun stat I'll throw in here just for fun...Russell shot a career high this season on 2 point shots.

monsterpile wrote:

Camden wrote:

Carlos Danger wrote:

Camden wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:I really don't care what he makes. Every team has overpaid players and eventually those contracts run out. What i care about is the inconsistency, the durability, and the lack of 2-way ability. The things that had him sitting on the bench while we went down at home to Memphis. We need to be better. We need a PG who we can afford to put on the opposing teams point guard. It's up to management to find that player, and until then, we have to leverage DLO's strengths while overcoming his weaknesses.

Fair enough, but you should also be able to understand and even admit that that player might not be available right now either by trade, free agency, or the draft, and the current alternatives to D'Angelo Russell on the roster are not upgrades in any sense. I'd double down on that considering this was an uncharacteristically poor season for him shooting the basketball. I'd double down on that considering this was an uncharacteristically poor season for him shooting the basketball.

In my opinion, trade talks concerning Russell have no real legs until there's some kind of reporting concerning the contract demands and negotiations between his side and the Timberwolves' front office. We're essentially just spinning the tires.

Was it an uncharacteristically poor shooting season for DLO shooting though? In three seasons with the Wolves, his FG% is .418. He shot .411 this past season. If you look at his career, he's never fluctuated much. His lowest season was .405 and his highest was .434. But the .434 was his All Star year - which now appears to be the one off. I think it would be risky to believe he's going to be a significantly better shooter at this point.

Yes, it was an uncharacteristically poor shooting season for D'Angelo Russell. I also don't think field goal percentage illustrates the entire picture. Consider the following:

Russell shot 34.0-percent from three-point range this season in 65 games. In the 168 games that he played in over the three seasons prior to 2021-22, he shot 37.2-percent from three-point range -- 36.9, 36.7, 38.7 over those seasons, respectively. That's not on low volume either. That's on 1,376 attempts (or 8.2 per game).

Russell also took a step back in mid-range efficiency. He made just 39.6-percent of shots attempted beyond 16-feet but still inside the three-point line. This is an area of the floor that he has typically thrived in. Before this season, he made those shots at a 42.3-percent clip for his career and 44.5-percent over the last three seasons.

Furthermore, Russell only made 34.4-percent of his catch-and-shoot three-point attempts this past season on 4.0 attempts per game, or just under one-third of his shot attempts this season . Over the last three seasons, he made 39.4-percent in 2018, 39.1-percent in 2019, and 39.1-percent in 2020 on these shots. He had never shot below 36.3-percent on catch-and-shoot threes in his career until this season.

It's inexplicable really how up and down, hot and cold Russell's shot-making was this season, and that's while acknowledging he's typically streaky anyways. Normally, it's a matter of he can't miss or he's average and not he's above average or he can't make anything, period. This season was an outlier for him shooting the basketball, which is unquestionably a huge element of his game.

What's the cause of this? I really can't say for certain. I do think the change in basketball may have had something to do with it, and perhaps Russell was dealing with more injury issues than we know about, but the bottom line is that he has to hit more shots like he has for the majority of his career and the most recent seasons of his prime.

Fun stat I'll throw in here just for fun...Russell shot a career high this season on 2 point shots.

Camden wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:

Duke13 wrote:Classic Cam, ending your post saying Jaden should never play the 4 ever again. He definitely looked overmatched during the series. I think you can make the argument with added strength and experience he might be able to handle some minutes at the 4 down the road. But no chance of that according to Cam.

Reasonable NBA observers could make an argument Dlo should never play Pg for the wolves again.

Cam how much worse would Dlo have had to play in the Memphis series for you to moderately change your stance on him?

We have seen DLO play some horrendous basketball at times, but there has never been even a hint of critical thought from Cam. So I wouldn't hold your breath.

This isn't actually true and we can revisit game threads as evidence if you'd like. I am guilty, however, of not piling on the guy after everyone's already pointed out the mistakes and/or poor play from him.

Once again, I'm not sure you should be speaking on any matter of favoritism, however. I'll leave it at that.

FNG wrote:

Carlos Danger wrote:

Camden wrote:
Here's where I have an issue with this response. I've presented facts to support my claim. You presented a criticism with one of my facts. I supported my claim further. Your rebuttal, if I can call it that, is to claim that it's coincidental while asking very particular questions that could apply to every team's record in every circumstance. Not to mention, the sample you referenced is already accounted for in the data that was shared prior. I'm just not seeing any kind of evidence that would support your point, whatever that might be. It makes me wonder what we're even doing here.

From my standpoint, we are debating the best way to determine a players value to the team. Is it by the Win/Losses in the games they played? Or, is it by looking at other statistics.

My opinion (which will not change) is that some of the other advanced stats are a better way to determine a player's value (PER, WS, VORP, +/-, on/off etc.) I see wins/losses as something determined not by one or two players, but by a combination of all players (on both teams). Obviously sometimes the team will win even though one of those players lays an egg. That's why I don't think W/L is the best measuring stick for determining individual player contributions.

I completely agree with what you are saying here, Anthony. We are all Wolves fans here, and while that's great, it causes us to overvalue our players at times...it's what fans do. But unfortunately a deep dive into DLO's advanced stats doesn't present a very positive picture. We talk about DLO being a good shooter, but his TS% is consistently below the league average...and as Q points out below, that was inexcusable this season when defenses had to focus on Ant and KAT, 2 guys who were both more productive and more efficient than DLO. Secondly as I have documented many times before, DLO has had a negative net rating on basketballreference.com every year of his career, including this season (which I rate at his best) and his all-star season...only Andrew Wiggins has the same poor results using this measure, although he at least ended up this season neutral. Finally, although he finished this season with a positive on/off of 3.1, he has been negative by this measure in 4 of his previous 6 seasons...on/off is admittedly only one of many measures to evaluate a player's value, but it's telling when your team performs better when you are on the bench in over half of your seasons.

I have to admit I enjoy kekgeek's updates on how the Wolves do when KAT and DLO both play compared to when one of them is out...it helps me appreciate our two max guys a little more when I'm feeling down on them. After all, winning should be the most important thing. But Carlos is correct in saying this is a team game, and team performance might be one of the messiest measures of a player's worth...way too many variables involved. I think the Tyus Jones vs. Ja Morant discussion illustrates this best, and it's not a small sample size. Memphis was good this year when Ja was the starting PG, going 36-22 for a .621 winning percentage. But they were indisputably great in the 24 games Ja was out. With Tyus starting at PG the Griz went 20-4, for a remarkable .833 winning percentage! As much as Tyus's game is appreciated by many here, I rather doubt that anyone here is prepared to conclude he is better than Ja...nope. I look at the Wolves record when both KAT and DLO play the same way I look at the Grizzlies' record when Tyus starts in place of Ja...interesting and fun to talk about, but not very compelling when analyzing an individual player's value. Like Carlos, I much prefer relying on deep analytical data.