Minnesota Sports Forum

I definitely understand the pessimism that involves predicting injuries. It seems like this franchise gets killed by them year after year. I just think that's an arbitrary element factoring into the equation. I wish we could have a prediction thread that only accounts for the talent on the roster, or at least those that are accounting for injuries include what the win total would be if players stay relatively healthy. That would give me a better inclination of what you actually thought of the roster rather than guesstimating injuries and missed games.

Camden wrote:I definitely understand the pessimism that involves predicting injuries. It seems like this franchise gets killed by them year after year. I just think that's an arbitrary element factoring into the equation. I wish we could have a prediction thread that only accounts for the talent on the roster, or at least those that are accounting for injuries include what the win total would be if players stay relatively healthy. That would give me a better inclination of what you actually thought of the roster rather than guesstimating injuries and missed games.

I agree it's arbitrary and difficult to forecast. But to really make that meaningful, Cam, don't we also need to assume every other team has zero injuries also? I mean, is it realistic to assume guys like Embiid, Irving, Zion and Kawhi are going to play 82 games? Injuries are a big part of how things work out...just look at the NBA playoffs last year. And the Wolves more often than not seem to get bit by the injury bug. Just like evaluating Buxton's value needs to include his injury history, any discussion of the prospects of a basketball team has to involve some prediction as to health. I think we all need to evaluate a roster based not only on raw talent, but also on how many games we think they will miss. DLO and KAT are healthy right now, but we have to look at past history. Predicting either will play 80+ games based on recent history would be the equivalent of predicting Rubio will make 40% of his threes and average 35 PPG based on the Olympics. Past history doesn't always predict future results, but it needs to be factored into any meaningful forecast.

Bottom line... over the past (xx) years...

many, many, many teams with more injuries than the Timberwolves still did better than the Timberwolves. The team failing to reach expectations has more to do with injuries.

AbeVigodaLive wrote:Bottom line... over the past (xx) years...

many, many, many teams with more injuries than the Timberwolves still did better than the Timberwolves. The team failing to reach expectations has more to do with injuries.

Like what?

(oh yeah, forgot about that defense thang...)

Sure, and that's why I included that I would like to see those who think this team is going to get crippled by injuries also mention how many wins this roster could accumulate if they stayed reasonably healthy. I would find some value in that because it's an actual assessment of talent accumulation rather than a number that represents unpredictable injuries and games missed as a result. Not to mention, those that are assuming the Wolves get snake-bit by injuries likely aren't doing the same exact measure for every other team in the league. That's why both numbers would be useful, in my opinion.

Otherwise, to me it feels like we have intelligent basketball minds taking a shot in the dark rather than analyzing the quality of players on the roster. Hopefully, that makes my stance more transparent.

Camden wrote:Sure, and that's why I included that I would like to see those who think this team is going to get crippled by injuries also mention how many wins this roster could accumulate if they stayed reasonably healthy. I would find some value in that because it's an actual assessment of talent accumulation rather than a number that represents unpredictable injuries and games missed as a result. Not to mention, those that are assuming the Wolves get snake-bit by injuries likely aren't doing the same exact measure for every other team in the league. That's why both numbers would be useful, in my opinion.

Otherwise, to me it feels like we have intelligent basketball minds taking a shot in the dark rather than analyzing the quality of players on the roster. Hopefully, that makes my stance more transparent.

Well, I already answered your question directly earlier in this thread. But the whole point of a Wins Prediction Thread is to predict actual wins, not theoretical wins. Don't you think Vegas considers injury history in their predictions?

The other thing I factored in was depth. I'm not nearly as enamored with our depth as others might be. Given the fact I believe at least two of the following players - DLO/KAT/Ant/PBev - will miss 20+ games, I just don't trust the rest of the roster to hold up well....even against other teams experiencing injuries. In fact, we caught a glimpse of this on Monday where our 2nd/3rd line players were easily beaten by the Pelicans scrubs.

Absolutely, but how can anyone be so sure that Minnesota gets crushed by injuries yet again? Anthony Edwards has shown zero signs of being an injury concern. Karl-Anthony Towns was an absolute iron man his first four seasons and has only missed time due to a sprained knee and a dislocated wrist. Neither are lingering or long-term injuries and I'll note that he's never required surgery. There's a better chance he'll play all 82 games this season than the 50 he played last year in a shortened season.

D'Angelo Russell is certainly the biggest injury concern out of the Wolves' top players, but he's also coming off a successful procedure and is months recovered from having his knee operated on. I'll also add that he had a loose body removed and that the surgery wasn't dealing with any ligaments or tendons, which would be much more significant. Other than that, his injury history appears minor, but rather annoying, stemming from quad issues and finger/thumb injuries. Perhaps these issues continue, and they certainly might, but they're difficult to predict.

If those three stay reasonably healthy, which is possible, then the pieces around them can be mixed and matched. Patrick Beverley plays with such energy and grittiness that he'll probably miss time. Taurean Prince finally got his ankle operated on and appears to be the healthiest he's been since his second year in the league. Naz Reid doesn't have an extensive injury history.

Obviously, terrible things can happen at any moment, but some of you are basically just expecting the worst not out of rational thought, but because you're battered and bruised Minnesota sports fans who have been conditioned to prepare for the worst.

Cam, I'm expecting 34 wins. If we were "mostly" healthy with all the key guys playing 70+ games, I'd expect us to win around 40-44 games. That's a difference of 6-10 games. Now if I thought we'd be wracked by major injuries, I'd go lower than 34. But I think anyone guessing in the low 30s to low 40s is using a fairly rational approach vs. doomsday or overly rosy.

Yeah, injuries have to be part of the equation, or the exercise makes little sense. As Cool often says, the best ability is durability (or availability)...some guys (teams) have it, some don't.

If everyone is healthy on our team and the Clippers are missing Kawhi and George and the Nets are missing Harden/Irving/Durant, we're gonna beat both teams I think. But if they're all healthy, it probably doesn't matter if we are or not...they're better than we are. As Abe said above, a lot of teams have had injury problems worse than ours. If we assume perfect health for our Wolves, we have to assume perfect health for other teams (even the Warriors and Klay), and I would submit we end up in the same place...11th or 12th.

No shit, FNG. I'm not asking for anyone to assume outstanding health for the Wolves and poor or less than reasonable health for other teams. Not once have I suggested that. I think there's value in comparing teams as they're constructed, meaning that everyone on the roster is available. Why? Because we don't know who, how, or when said injuries will strike for any team. Furthermore, we simply cannot predict the injury, the grade of injury, or the assessed recovery time and the amount of games missed. It's impossible to determine that before the season starts.