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Re: Make your Free Agent Pick: Who you got?

Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2016 3:45 am
by MikkeMan
I also voted Luol Deng. I think he could be maybe signed for half of the amount compared to Horford. Deng is just less than 2 year older than Horford and it seems that he has been able to maintain his level of play despite getting older. In his two all star seasons Deng has PER 14.1 and 15.5 and last two years in Miami he has had PER 15.5 and 15.0

I also think that our wings are worse in defense than our bigs. Dieng has made a huge progress defensively in last couple of years (His DRPM was in 2013-14 just 0.18, 2014-15 it improved to 0.68 and this season already to 2.56) and Towns has potential to be one of the best rim protecting centers. I believe that both will improve dramatically in defensive side with Thibs as their coach.

And if I compare Dieng's stats as starter to Horford's stats, I don't see much difference:

Dieng as starter:
12.5 pts, 7.9 rbs, 2.3 asts, 1 stls and 1.4 blks in 31.1 minutes .62 TS% and +3.7 net rating
Horford this year:
15.2 pts, 7.3 rbs, 3.2 asts, 0.8 stls and 1.5 blks in 32.1 minutes and .56 TS% and +3.9 net rating

It seems that main difference between those two is that Horford is better passer and scores more but less efficiently. Since Dieng has improved every season, so I would not be even 100% sure whether Horford will be better than Dieng in next season.

But if we look our wings only Wiggins is even average at defense unless we would keep Prince. But since Prince is not threat at all in offense, I don't want to play him next year. Deng would give us one really good wing defender that would not be hurting us in offense. Replacing Lavine with Dieng in our starting lineup would also improve our rebounding much more than replacing Dieng with Horford (whom might be worse rebounder than Dieng).

Deng could also play small ball power forward for us. His post all star break stats as starting power forward for Miami are pretty much identical with Horford's this season stats.

Deng as starting power forward for Miami:
15.2 pts, 8.1 rbs, 2.5 asts, 1.2 stls and 0.5 blks in 34.1 minutes .56 TS% and +7.1 net rating

Using Deng as stretch four would be intriguing option in the end of games, since we could switch in defense every on ball screens.

Re: Make your Free Agent Pick: Who you got?

Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2016 5:01 am
by TheFuture
Mikkeman, i just want to say im glad youre active on this board. You never fail to provide great insight and well researched posts.

Re: Make your Free Agent Pick: Who you got?

Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2016 7:06 am
by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
TheFuture wrote:Mikkeman, i just want to say im glad youre active on this board. You never fail to provide great insight and well researched posts.


I have to agree, future...lots of great posters here, but Mikkeman is the gold standard.

Re: Make your Free Agent Pick: Who you got?

Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2016 7:34 am
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
Mikkeman wrote:I also voted Luol Deng. I think he could be maybe signed for half of the amount compared to Horford. Deng is just less than 2 year older than Horford and it seems that he has been able to maintain his level of play despite getting older. In his two all star seasons Deng has PER 14.1 and 15.5 and last two years in Miami he has had PER 15.5 and 15.0

I also think that our wings are worse in defense than our bigs. Dieng has made a huge progress defensively in last couple of years (His DRPM was in 2013-14 just 0.18, 2014-15 it improved to 0.68 and this season already to 2.56) and Towns has potential to be one of the best rim protecting centers. I believe that both will improve dramatically in defensive side with Thibs as their coach.

And if I compare Dieng's stats as starter to Horford's stats, I don't see much difference:

Dieng as starter:
12.5 pts, 7.9 rbs, 2.3 asts, 1 stls and 1.4 blks in 31.1 minutes .62 TS% and +3.7 net rating
Horford this year:
15.2 pts, 7.3 rbs, 3.2 asts, 0.8 stls and 1.5 blks in 32.1 minutes and .56 TS% and +3.9 net rating

It seems that main difference between those two is that Horford is better passer and scores more but less efficiently. Since Dieng has improved every season, so I would not be even 100% sure whether Horford will be better than Dieng in next season.

But if we look our wings only Wiggins is even average at defense unless we would keep Prince. But since Prince is not threat at all in offense, I don't want to play him next year. Deng would give us one really good wing defender that would not be hurting us in offense. Replacing Lavine with Dieng in our starting lineup would also improve our rebounding much more than replacing Dieng with Horford (whom might be worse rebounder than Dieng).

Deng could also play small ball power forward for us. His post all star break stats as starting power forward for Miami are pretty much identical with Horford's this season stats.

Deng as starting power forward for Miami:
15.2 pts, 8.1 rbs, 2.5 asts, 1.2 stls and 0.5 blks in 34.1 minutes .56 TS% and +7.1 net rating

Using Deng as stretch four would be intriguing option in the end of games, since we could switch in defense every on ball screens.


Good stuff Mikkeman. This data is tough to overlook.

I think the one thing Deng disrupts a little bit is LaVine and Shabazz's place in the rotation. Shabazz I'm less concerned about, but I wonder how LaVine would feel about being the 6th man?

Re: Make your Free Agent Pick: Who you got?

Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2016 7:54 am
by Lipoli390
Regarding Deng. We played close to .500 ball after the allstar break under Mitchell. There's something seriously wrong if we can't make the playoffs next season under Thibs with this group plus another summer for them to improve, plus a top 5 or 6 pick, plus the addition of a couple solid free agents to shore up the bench. I see no reason to spend significant money to sign a 30 + year old free agent who would displace one of our core three (Towns, Wiggins or LaVine) in the starting lineup. This team is not going to complete for a championship next season. Deng is the kind of player you add when you need that final piece to get over the hump for a championship drive. We're not there yet. We need to strengthen our bench this summer through the draft and/or free agency. But we shouldn't do that in a way that would displace any of our core young starters. They need to play and grown together so they're in a position in 2-3 years to take us to the next level.

Re: Make your Free Agent Pick: Who you got?

Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2016 8:05 am
by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
Q12543 wrote:
Mikkeman wrote:I also voted Luol Deng. I think he could be maybe signed for half of the amount compared to Horford. Deng is just less than 2 year older than Horford and it seems that he has been able to maintain his level of play despite getting older. In his two all star seasons Deng has PER 14.1 and 15.5 and last two years in Miami he has had PER 15.5 and 15.0

I also think that our wings are worse in defense than our bigs. Dieng has made a huge progress defensively in last couple of years (His DRPM was in 2013-14 just 0.18, 2014-15 it improved to 0.68 and this season already to 2.56) and Towns has potential to be one of the best rim protecting centers. I believe that both will improve dramatically in defensive side with Thibs as their coach.

And if I compare Dieng's stats as starter to Horford's stats, I don't see much difference:

Dieng as starter:
12.5 pts, 7.9 rbs, 2.3 asts, 1 stls and 1.4 blks in 31.1 minutes .62 TS% and +3.7 net rating
Horford this year:
15.2 pts, 7.3 rbs, 3.2 asts, 0.8 stls and 1.5 blks in 32.1 minutes and .56 TS% and +3.9 net rating

It seems that main difference between those two is that Horford is better passer and scores more but less efficiently. Since Dieng has improved every season, so I would not be even 100% sure whether Horford will be better than Dieng in next season.

But if we look our wings only Wiggins is even average at defense unless we would keep Prince. But since Prince is not threat at all in offense, I don't want to play him next year. Deng would give us one really good wing defender that would not be hurting us in offense. Replacing Lavine with Dieng in our starting lineup would also improve our rebounding much more than replacing Dieng with Horford (whom might be worse rebounder than Dieng).

Deng could also play small ball power forward for us. His post all star break stats as starting power forward for Miami are pretty much identical with Horford's this season stats.

Deng as starting power forward for Miami:
15.2 pts, 8.1 rbs, 2.5 asts, 1.2 stls and 0.5 blks in 34.1 minutes .56 TS% and +7.1 net rating

Using Deng as stretch four would be intriguing option in the end of games, since we could switch in defense every on ball screens.


Good stuff Mikkeman. This data is tough to overlook.

I think the one thing Deng disrupts a little bit is LaVine and Shabazz's place in the rotation. Shabazz I'm less concerned about, but I wonder how LaVine would feel about being the 6th man?


It's something to consider, q, but I actually see it as a selling point. I'm not satisfied with Wig's 3.6 RPG last season (actually down from his rookie year) and I don't think Thibs will be either. Bringing in a SF like Deng (who provides Tay-like defense with more offense) allows Wig to play a position where his poor rebounding doesn't hurt us and he can be more of a dominant force on defense. Yes, Zach is improving and likely won't like not starting, but I don't see it affecting his game negatively. I'm not giving up on Zach as a starter, but he seems ideal right now in the role of instant offense off the bench. Down the line when Wig gets bigger and becomes a better rebounder, he and Zach could be a nice pair of wings on a team challenging for a championship.

Those who advocate for giving Horford a max contract need to watch how he has disappeared in the Hawks' last two losses in Boston...5 and 8 points in the two games. He has been rebounding and distributing well, but a max player needs to step up and be a scorer too in the playoffs.

Re: Make your Free Agent Pick: Who you got?

Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2016 8:07 am
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
lipoli390 wrote:Regarding Deng. We played close to .500 ball after the allstar break under Mitchell. There's something seriously wrong if we can't make the playoffs next season under Thibs with this group plus another summer for them to improve, plus a top 5 or 6 pick, plus the addition of a couple solid free agents to shore up the bench. I see no reason to spend significant money to sign a 30 + year old free agent who would displace one of our core three (Towns, Wiggins or LaVine) in the starting lineup. This team is not going to complete for a championship next season. Deng is the kind of player you add when you need that final piece to get over the hump for a championship drive. We're not there yet. We need to strengthen our bench this summer through the draft and/or free agency. But we shouldn't do that in a way that would displace any of our core young starters. They need to play and grown together so they're in a position in 2-3 years to take us to the next level.


....but if the current group is good enough to make the playoffs, then why not get the so-called "final piece" now to accelerate the process and actually try to win a playoff series or two?

Deng may move LaVine to 6th man, but my guess is the end of games would have KAT, Deng, Wiggins, LaVine, and Rubio on the floor together.

Re: Make your Free Agent Pick: Who you got?

Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2016 8:10 am
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
longstrangetrip wrote:
Q12543 wrote:
Mikkeman wrote:I also voted Luol Deng. I think he could be maybe signed for half of the amount compared to Horford. Deng is just less than 2 year older than Horford and it seems that he has been able to maintain his level of play despite getting older. In his two all star seasons Deng has PER 14.1 and 15.5 and last two years in Miami he has had PER 15.5 and 15.0

I also think that our wings are worse in defense than our bigs. Dieng has made a huge progress defensively in last couple of years (His DRPM was in 2013-14 just 0.18, 2014-15 it improved to 0.68 and this season already to 2.56) and Towns has potential to be one of the best rim protecting centers. I believe that both will improve dramatically in defensive side with Thibs as their coach.

And if I compare Dieng's stats as starter to Horford's stats, I don't see much difference:

Dieng as starter:
12.5 pts, 7.9 rbs, 2.3 asts, 1 stls and 1.4 blks in 31.1 minutes .62 TS% and +3.7 net rating
Horford this year:
15.2 pts, 7.3 rbs, 3.2 asts, 0.8 stls and 1.5 blks in 32.1 minutes and .56 TS% and +3.9 net rating

It seems that main difference between those two is that Horford is better passer and scores more but less efficiently. Since Dieng has improved every season, so I would not be even 100% sure whether Horford will be better than Dieng in next season.

But if we look our wings only Wiggins is even average at defense unless we would keep Prince. But since Prince is not threat at all in offense, I don't want to play him next year. Deng would give us one really good wing defender that would not be hurting us in offense. Replacing Lavine with Dieng in our starting lineup would also improve our rebounding much more than replacing Dieng with Horford (whom might be worse rebounder than Dieng).

Deng could also play small ball power forward for us. His post all star break stats as starting power forward for Miami are pretty much identical with Horford's this season stats.

Deng as starting power forward for Miami:
15.2 pts, 8.1 rbs, 2.5 asts, 1.2 stls and 0.5 blks in 34.1 minutes .56 TS% and +7.1 net rating

Using Deng as stretch four would be intriguing option in the end of games, since we could switch in defense every on ball screens.


Good stuff Mikkeman. This data is tough to overlook.

I think the one thing Deng disrupts a little bit is LaVine and Shabazz's place in the rotation. Shabazz I'm less concerned about, but I wonder how LaVine would feel about being the 6th man?


It's something to consider, q, but I actually see it as a selling point. I'm not satisfied with Wig's 3.6 RPG last season (actually down from his rookie year) and I don't think Thibs will be either. Bringing in a SF like Deng (who provides Tay-like defense with more offense) allows Wig to play a position where his poor rebounding doesn't hurt us and he can be more of a dominant force on defense. Yes, Zach is improving and likely won't like not starting, but I don't see it affecting his game negatively. I'm not giving up on Zach as a starter, but he seems ideal right now in the role of instant offense off the bench. Down the line when Wig gets bigger and becomes a better rebounder, he and Zach could be a nice pair of wings on a team challenging for a championship.

Those who advocate for giving Horford a max contract need to watch how he has disappeared in the Hawks' last two losses in Boston...5 and 8 points in the two games. He has been rebounding and distributing well, but a max player needs to step up and be a scorer too in the playoffs.


Yeah, I'm sort of arguing both sides of this debate because I really like both players.

Horford did sort of shit the bed yesterday. He had two wide open mid-range jumpers - a shot he normally makes - in the closing minutes of that Celtic game and came up short on both.

Re: Make your Free Agent Pick: Who you got?

Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2016 8:24 am
by kurrdog53 [enjin:7013678]
I am really afraid to get near-sighted this summer. I love the fit Horford could be, but the max contract scares me. Not because of the implications it has on the roster down the road, but if he gets hurt, it is money wasted (I know you could say that about any player). But I would choose depth. Get 2 guys (plus a draft pick) that would really make our bench formidable. Even if that meant trading Bazz.

Has anyone looked at the FA crop for 2017-18? Maybe it is worth waiting on someone.

I think we can 'win now' and 'develop our talent' at the same time. If we add 2 role players (and a draft pick) and win 48 games, will we be disappointed? I won't! Then if we add someone big when KG and Pek (hopefully) are gone and push for 60 wins and a championship when the young guys are 23, isn't that a great plan?

I just hope Thibs and Layden look at both the best options this year and next and push their chips in at the right time.

Re: Make your Free Agent Pick: Who you got?

Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2016 8:25 am
by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
Q12543 wrote:
longstrangetrip wrote:
Q12543 wrote:
Mikkeman wrote:I also voted Luol Deng. I think he could be maybe signed for half of the amount compared to Horford. Deng is just less than 2 year older than Horford and it seems that he has been able to maintain his level of play despite getting older. In his two all star seasons Deng has PER 14.1 and 15.5 and last two years in Miami he has had PER 15.5 and 15.0

I also think that our wings are worse in defense than our bigs. Dieng has made a huge progress defensively in last couple of years (His DRPM was in 2013-14 just 0.18, 2014-15 it improved to 0.68 and this season already to 2.56) and Towns has potential to be one of the best rim protecting centers. I believe that both will improve dramatically in defensive side with Thibs as their coach.

And if I compare Dieng's stats as starter to Horford's stats, I don't see much difference:

Dieng as starter:
12.5 pts, 7.9 rbs, 2.3 asts, 1 stls and 1.4 blks in 31.1 minutes .62 TS% and +3.7 net rating
Horford this year:
15.2 pts, 7.3 rbs, 3.2 asts, 0.8 stls and 1.5 blks in 32.1 minutes and .56 TS% and +3.9 net rating

It seems that main difference between those two is that Horford is better passer and scores more but less efficiently. Since Dieng has improved every season, so I would not be even 100% sure whether Horford will be better than Dieng in next season.

But if we look our wings only Wiggins is even average at defense unless we would keep Prince. But since Prince is not threat at all in offense, I don't want to play him next year. Deng would give us one really good wing defender that would not be hurting us in offense. Replacing Lavine with Dieng in our starting lineup would also improve our rebounding much more than replacing Dieng with Horford (whom might be worse rebounder than Dieng).

Deng could also play small ball power forward for us. His post all star break stats as starting power forward for Miami are pretty much identical with Horford's this season stats.

Deng as starting power forward for Miami:
15.2 pts, 8.1 rbs, 2.5 asts, 1.2 stls and 0.5 blks in 34.1 minutes .56 TS% and +7.1 net rating

Using Deng as stretch four would be intriguing option in the end of games, since we could switch in defense every on ball screens.


Good stuff Mikkeman. This data is tough to overlook.

I think the one thing Deng disrupts a little bit is LaVine and Shabazz's place in the rotation. Shabazz I'm less concerned about, but I wonder how LaVine would feel about being the 6th man?


It's something to consider, q, but I actually see it as a selling point. I'm not satisfied with Wig's 3.6 RPG last season (actually down from his rookie year) and I don't think Thibs will be either. Bringing in a SF like Deng (who provides Tay-like defense with more offense) allows Wig to play a position where his poor rebounding doesn't hurt us and he can be more of a dominant force on defense. Yes, Zach is improving and likely won't like not starting, but I don't see it affecting his game negatively. I'm not giving up on Zach as a starter, but he seems ideal right now in the role of instant offense off the bench. Down the line when Wig gets bigger and becomes a better rebounder, he and Zach could be a nice pair of wings on a team challenging for a championship.

Those who advocate for giving Horford a max contract need to watch how he has disappeared in the Hawks' last two losses in Boston...5 and 8 points in the two games. He has been rebounding and distributing well, but a max player needs to step up and be a scorer too in the playoffs.


Yeah, I'm sort of arguing both sides of this debate because I really like both players.

Horford did sort of shit the bed yesterday. He had two wide open mid-range jumpers - a shot he normally makes - in the closing minutes of that Celtic game and came up short on both.


Either Horford or Deng makes our defense instantly better, although I don't think you can underestimate the value of starting a veteran like Deng who knows Thibs' offensive and defensive systems...really helps the transition. And we can get him at likely less than half the cost of Horford.

We don't know if KG is coming back, but we should know soon. Starting the game with KAT, KG, Deng, Wig and Rubio would be really a stifling defense...not to mantion the luxury of having Zach and G coming off the bench.